Tim Apple got his inauguration ticket's worth.
Trump excludes smartphones, computers, chips from tariffs
Trump excludes smartphones, computers, chips from tariffs
iPhones and computers get a break.
buff.ly
April 12, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Tim Apple got his inauguration ticket's worth.
Dems lead on every issue now except crime according to split-ticket’s polling today
September 30, 2026 at 4:17 PM
Dems lead on every issue now except crime according to split-ticket’s polling today
*It's a tough choice. One offers acid-free seawater but the other ticket's got a trillion dollars
September 29, 2026 at 8:46 AM
*It's a tough choice. One offers acid-free seawater but the other ticket's got a trillion dollars
"So what now? Where are you going to do from here?"
"Honestly? No idea, the ticket's blank after all"
#trigun #trigunstargaze #trigunspoilers #marshart
"Honestly? No idea, the ticket's blank after all"
#trigun #trigunstargaze #trigunspoilers #marshart
March 3, 2026 at 4:36 PM
"So what now? Where are you going to do from here?"
"Honestly? No idea, the ticket's blank after all"
#trigun #trigunstargaze #trigunspoilers #marshart
"Honestly? No idea, the ticket's blank after all"
#trigun #trigunstargaze #trigunspoilers #marshart
They said "No" again, but the ticket's not closed yet! I'm asking for more details!
December 9, 2025 at 10:03 PM
They said "No" again, but the ticket's not closed yet! I'm asking for more details!
Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota said this week that he was “a little surprised” that he and Vice President Kamala Harris lost the presidential election to Donald Trump because he had believed the country was ready for the Democratic ticket’s “positive message.”
Tim Walz Was ‘a Little Surprised’ Trump Won the 2024 Election
In his first interviews since the election, Kamala Harris’s running mate told Minnesota television stations that he had thought the country would embrace the Democratic ticket’s positive message.
www.nytimes.com
December 6, 2024 at 6:00 PM
Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota said this week that he was “a little surprised” that he and Vice President Kamala Harris lost the presidential election to Donald Trump because he had believed the country was ready for the Democratic ticket’s “positive message.”
OK here's the blog post.
1) Split Ticket's WAR model is biased in favor of moderates
2) We create our own WAR measure w/ stronger model; correlates w/ @gelliottmorris.com's
3) Correlation ≠ causation. Diff-in-diffs & RDDs show no moderation effects
data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
1) Split Ticket's WAR model is biased in favor of moderates
2) We create our own WAR measure w/ stronger model; correlates w/ @gelliottmorris.com's
3) Correlation ≠ causation. Diff-in-diffs & RDDs show no moderation effects
data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
August 14, 2025 at 8:08 PM
OK here's the blog post.
1) Split Ticket's WAR model is biased in favor of moderates
2) We create our own WAR measure w/ stronger model; correlates w/ @gelliottmorris.com's
3) Correlation ≠ causation. Diff-in-diffs & RDDs show no moderation effects
data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
1) Split Ticket's WAR model is biased in favor of moderates
2) We create our own WAR measure w/ stronger model; correlates w/ @gelliottmorris.com's
3) Correlation ≠ causation. Diff-in-diffs & RDDs show no moderation effects
data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
We took a close look at Split Ticket's WAR metric, which has become influential in Democratic circles for suggesting moderates significantly outperform progressives.
Our finding: The metric contains systematic biases that overstate the advantage of moderation. A corrected model shows no advantage.🧵
Our finding: The metric contains systematic biases that overstate the advantage of moderation. A corrected model shows no advantage.🧵
Do Moderates Do Better?
Uncovering Bias in Split Ticket’s WAR Scores
data4democracy.substack.com
August 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
We took a close look at Split Ticket's WAR metric, which has become influential in Democratic circles for suggesting moderates significantly outperform progressives.
Our finding: The metric contains systematic biases that overstate the advantage of moderation. A corrected model shows no advantage.🧵
Our finding: The metric contains systematic biases that overstate the advantage of moderation. A corrected model shows no advantage.🧵
Totally lost – she did not run for the Liberal Party ticket’s second position
March 29, 2026 at 4:23 AM
Totally lost – she did not run for the Liberal Party ticket’s second position
Here’s the original critique of Split Ticket’s WAR data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
Do Moderates Do Better?
Uncovering Bias in Split Ticket’s WAR Scores
data4democracy.substack.com
October 26, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Here’s the original critique of Split Ticket’s WAR data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
translator's note left in dialogue
July 29, 2026 at 5:29 AM
translator's note left in dialogue
You don't need to scold the people complaining that getting a ticket from a speeding camera is unfair. If you have to engage, reframe the debate and cite evidence about speed cameras' ability to save lives.
Scolding isn't necessary: that's what the ticket's for!
Scolding isn't necessary: that's what the ticket's for!
May 28, 2025 at 3:21 PM
You don't need to scold the people complaining that getting a ticket from a speeding camera is unfair. If you have to engage, reframe the debate and cite evidence about speed cameras' ability to save lives.
Scolding isn't necessary: that's what the ticket's for!
Scolding isn't necessary: that's what the ticket's for!
👀 A little birdie may have told me that Split Ticket's unreleased modeling of the current EV electorate in WI is Crawford +12.
March 31, 2025 at 9:15 PM
👀 A little birdie may have told me that Split Ticket's unreleased modeling of the current EV electorate in WI is Crawford +12.
The next section is them pounding the table, insisting that moderate candidates do better than progressive candidates.
SMH. I'm just gonna link to @adambonica.bsky.social and @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social on this one. They've done the work already.
data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
SMH. I'm just gonna link to @adambonica.bsky.social and @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social on this one. They've done the work already.
data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
Do Moderates Do Better?
Uncovering Bias in Split Ticket’s WAR Scores
data4democracy.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 5:00 PM
The next section is them pounding the table, insisting that moderate candidates do better than progressive candidates.
SMH. I'm just gonna link to @adambonica.bsky.social and @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social on this one. They've done the work already.
data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
SMH. I'm just gonna link to @adambonica.bsky.social and @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social on this one. They've done the work already.
data4democracy.substack.com/p/do-moderat...
Run? Winning Ticket?
September 27, 2026 at 4:23 AM
Run? Winning Ticket?
Nine months into the pro-peace ticket’s reign and we’ve got Hegseth drunkenly ranting War Is Peace and the only way to get true peace is to invade Portland.
September 30, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Nine months into the pro-peace ticket’s reign and we’ve got Hegseth drunkenly ranting War Is Peace and the only way to get true peace is to invade Portland.
I hope wherever I am when my ticket’s punched, that I can see the moon.
February 18, 2025 at 4:48 PM
I hope wherever I am when my ticket’s punched, that I can see the moon.
*packs all her data into a lil satchel on a stick*
My ticket's come in. I'm moving to Northsky.
My ticket's come in. I'm moving to Northsky.
April 2, 2026 at 1:38 AM
*packs all her data into a lil satchel on a stick*
My ticket's come in. I'm moving to Northsky.
My ticket's come in. I'm moving to Northsky.
They are in game now!! More of my art for Star Days event is live. Visit Ticket's shop at Venus. ❤️❤️🔥
#warframe #warframefanart #warframecreator
#warframe #warframefanart #warframecreator
February 4, 2026 at 4:53 PM
They are in game now!! More of my art for Star Days event is live. Visit Ticket's shop at Venus. ❤️❤️🔥
#warframe #warframefanart #warframecreator
#warframe #warframefanart #warframecreator
When we built a better predictive model using Split Ticket's own standards, the supposed advantage of moderation are no longer statistically significant.
Split Ticket's WAR adjustments aren't neutral—they create the result they claim to discover.
Ultimately, WAR metrics can't tell us much.
Split Ticket's WAR adjustments aren't neutral—they create the result they claim to discover.
Ultimately, WAR metrics can't tell us much.
August 14, 2025 at 8:44 PM
When we built a better predictive model using Split Ticket's own standards, the supposed advantage of moderation are no longer statistically significant.
Split Ticket's WAR adjustments aren't neutral—they create the result they claim to discover.
Ultimately, WAR metrics can't tell us much.
Split Ticket's WAR adjustments aren't neutral—they create the result they claim to discover.
Ultimately, WAR metrics can't tell us much.
NEW POST‼️‼️‼️
Winning Ticket's story is also Masato Shibata's story, so I'd be remiss to have dedicated a whole post to Ticket's dream of the Nihon Derby without also giving context for Shibata's own dream for the Nihon Derby.
umadacchidensetsu.com/team-sirius-...
#ウマ娘
#UmaMusume
Winning Ticket's story is also Masato Shibata's story, so I'd be remiss to have dedicated a whole post to Ticket's dream of the Nihon Derby without also giving context for Shibata's own dream for the Nihon Derby.
umadacchidensetsu.com/team-sirius-...
#ウマ娘
#UmaMusume
August 16, 2025 at 8:30 PM
NEW POST‼️‼️‼️
Winning Ticket's story is also Masato Shibata's story, so I'd be remiss to have dedicated a whole post to Ticket's dream of the Nihon Derby without also giving context for Shibata's own dream for the Nihon Derby.
umadacchidensetsu.com/team-sirius-...
#ウマ娘
#UmaMusume
Winning Ticket's story is also Masato Shibata's story, so I'd be remiss to have dedicated a whole post to Ticket's dream of the Nihon Derby without also giving context for Shibata's own dream for the Nihon Derby.
umadacchidensetsu.com/team-sirius-...
#ウマ娘
#UmaMusume
Where are the Republican Ticket's Spouses? Gwen Walz and Doug Emhoff are out on the campaign trail, while Usha Vance and Melania Trump are nowhere to be found. www.todaysamericannews.com/p/where-are-...
Where are the Republican Ticket's Spouses?
Gwen Walz and Doug Emhoff are out on the campaign trail, while Usha Vance and Melania Trump are nowhere to be found
www.todaysamericannews.com
October 23, 2024 at 6:34 PM
Where are the Republican Ticket's Spouses? Gwen Walz and Doug Emhoff are out on the campaign trail, while Usha Vance and Melania Trump are nowhere to be found. www.todaysamericannews.com/p/where-are-...
Absolutely. Please dial in here:
www.theticket.com/drop_your_pa...
www.theticket.com/drop_your_pa...
September 25, 2026 at 5:36 PM
Absolutely. Please dial in here:
www.theticket.com/drop_your_pa...
www.theticket.com/drop_your_pa...