Our #TopRisks2026 stated that USMCA would stagger on like a zombie, keeping businesses and governments guessing.
Our experts now believe that this zombie USMCA scenario will persist through the Trump administration, and that a trilateral deal to renew and extend the agreement is highly unlikely.
Our experts now believe that this zombie USMCA scenario will persist through the Trump administration, and that a trilateral deal to renew and extend the agreement is highly unlikely.
Zombie USMCA: Eurasia Group's #9 Top Risk of 2026
North American trade will be stuck in limbo as USMCA staggers on, neither dead nor alive.
www.eurasiagroup.net
October 13, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Our #TopRisks2026 stated that USMCA would stagger on like a zombie, keeping businesses and governments guessing.
Our experts now believe that this zombie USMCA scenario will persist through the Trump administration, and that a trilateral deal to renew and extend the agreement is highly unlikely.
Our experts now believe that this zombie USMCA scenario will persist through the Trump administration, and that a trilateral deal to renew and extend the agreement is highly unlikely.
Per our #TopRisks2026, the hollowing out of Europe's political center has been a decade in the making.
But the collapse of the center is particularly striking in Germany, Europe’s largest economy.
#GraphicTruth @gzeromedia.com
But the collapse of the center is particularly striking in Germany, Europe’s largest economy.
#GraphicTruth @gzeromedia.com
October 6, 2026 at 3:02 PM
Per our #TopRisks2026, the hollowing out of Europe's political center has been a decade in the making.
But the collapse of the center is particularly striking in Germany, Europe’s largest economy.
#GraphicTruth @gzeromedia.com
But the collapse of the center is particularly striking in Germany, Europe’s largest economy.
#GraphicTruth @gzeromedia.com
#TopRisks2023: Water stress
#TopRisks2026: The water weapon
“That underlying water stress is not going anywhere. If anything, it’s getting worse — which means our governance systems need to get better to catch up to that,” explains our expert Nick Kraft.
#TopRisks2026: The water weapon
“That underlying water stress is not going anywhere. If anything, it’s getting worse — which means our governance systems need to get better to catch up to that,” explains our expert Nick Kraft.
A geopolitical risk firm built a water team
That should tell you something. What Eurasia Group sees when it looks at the water sector. Winners and losers from Eurasia Group’s Water Outlook.
www.thewatermba.com
September 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM
#TopRisks2023: Water stress
#TopRisks2026: The water weapon
“That underlying water stress is not going anywhere. If anything, it’s getting worse — which means our governance systems need to get better to catch up to that,” explains our expert Nick Kraft.
#TopRisks2026: The water weapon
“That underlying water stress is not going anywhere. If anything, it’s getting worse — which means our governance systems need to get better to catch up to that,” explains our expert Nick Kraft.
almost time for @eurasiagroup.net’s #toprisks2026…
check back tomorrow morning to find out what made the cut
check back tomorrow morning to find out what made the cut
January 4, 2026 at 5:28 PM
almost time for @eurasiagroup.net’s #toprisks2026…
check back tomorrow morning to find out what made the cut
check back tomorrow morning to find out what made the cut
@eurasiagroup’s #toprisks2026 incoming…
check back on monday to see what made the cut (and what didn’t)
check back on monday to see what made the cut (and what didn’t)
January 2, 2026 at 7:54 PM
@eurasiagroup’s #toprisks2026 incoming…
check back on monday to see what made the cut (and what didn’t)
check back on monday to see what made the cut (and what didn’t)
President Trump is driving a political revolution, explains @ianbremmer.com. He is attempting to end the checks and balances on the US executive branch.
Ian joins Ezra Klein to discuss this revolution and the risks America poses to the world:
#TopRisks2026
Ian joins Ezra Klein to discuss this revolution and the risks America poses to the world:
#TopRisks2026
Opinion | Ian Bremmer on the Risks America Poses to the World
www.nytimes.com
June 2, 2026 at 3:30 PM
President Trump is driving a political revolution, explains @ianbremmer.com. He is attempting to end the checks and balances on the US executive branch.
Ian joins Ezra Klein to discuss this revolution and the risks America poses to the world:
#TopRisks2026
Ian joins Ezra Klein to discuss this revolution and the risks America poses to the world:
#TopRisks2026
“Chronic water stress is now the baseline reality we live in,” says our expert Nick Kraft.
Water scarcity is a growing problem. As access dwindles, water is being weaponized in some of the world’s most dangerous rivalries.
#TopRisks2026 @gzeromedia.com
Water scarcity is a growing problem. As access dwindles, water is being weaponized in some of the world’s most dangerous rivalries.
#TopRisks2026 @gzeromedia.com
Is water the next geopolitical battle?
More than 70% of the earth’s surface is covered in good old H2O, so it would seem there’s plenty to go around. But the vast majority, at least 97%, is contained in the oceans as saltwater. The growing...
www.gzeromedia.com
May 8, 2026 at 5:00 PM
“Chronic water stress is now the baseline reality we live in,” says our expert Nick Kraft.
Water scarcity is a growing problem. As access dwindles, water is being weaponized in some of the world’s most dangerous rivalries.
#TopRisks2026 @gzeromedia.com
Water scarcity is a growing problem. As access dwindles, water is being weaponized in some of the world’s most dangerous rivalries.
#TopRisks2026 @gzeromedia.com
“China appears to be stuck in a deflationary trap, with even the pressures sparked by the Iran war failing to boost prices.”
Sound familiar? Maybe because China’s deflation trap ranked #7 on our #TopRisks2026.
@semafor.com
https://www.semafor.com/article/04/23/2026/china-locked-in-deflation-trap
Sound familiar? Maybe because China’s deflation trap ranked #7 on our #TopRisks2026.
@semafor.com
https://www.semafor.com/article/04/23/2026/china-locked-in-deflation-trap
China locked in deflation ‘trap’ despite Iran war price pressures
Beijing has long struggled to drive domestic consumption, while brutal competition in many industries has pushed producers to cut prices.
www.semafor.com
April 23, 2026 at 1:59 PM
“China appears to be stuck in a deflationary trap, with even the pressures sparked by the Iran war failing to boost prices.”
Sound familiar? Maybe because China’s deflation trap ranked #7 on our #TopRisks2026.
@semafor.com
https://www.semafor.com/article/04/23/2026/china-locked-in-deflation-trap
Sound familiar? Maybe because China’s deflation trap ranked #7 on our #TopRisks2026.
@semafor.com
https://www.semafor.com/article/04/23/2026/china-locked-in-deflation-trap
The Iran war is exposing another major resource vulnerability in the Middle East: water.
Drinking water is a scarce commodity, and attacks on desalination plants threaten to open a new front.
#TopRisks2026 #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com:
Drinking water is a scarce commodity, and attacks on desalination plants threaten to open a new front.
#TopRisks2026 #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com:
March 17, 2026 at 2:30 PM
The Iran war is exposing another major resource vulnerability in the Middle East: water.
Drinking water is a scarce commodity, and attacks on desalination plants threaten to open a new front.
#TopRisks2026 #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com:
Drinking water is a scarce commodity, and attacks on desalination plants threaten to open a new front.
#TopRisks2026 #GraphicTruth via @gzeromedia.com:
Trump could have built a more durable tariff architecture from day one, but instead he chose the fastest path to maximum power and headline impact.
@ianbremmer.com breaks down the Supreme Court ruling and how that plays into our #TopRisks2026:
@gzeromedia.com
@ianbremmer.com breaks down the Supreme Court ruling and how that plays into our #TopRisks2026:
@gzeromedia.com
What the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling really changed
As expected, the Supreme Court struck down the bulk of Donald Trump's sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs as illegal … and almost nothing changed.
www.gzeromedia.com
March 1, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Trump could have built a more durable tariff architecture from day one, but instead he chose the fastest path to maximum power and headline impact.
@ianbremmer.com breaks down the Supreme Court ruling and how that plays into our #TopRisks2026:
@gzeromedia.com
@ianbremmer.com breaks down the Supreme Court ruling and how that plays into our #TopRisks2026:
@gzeromedia.com
As the fighting in Ukraine enters its fifth year, the greatest danger this year lies elsewhere.
The most dangerous front in Europe this year will shift from the trenches in Donetsk to the hybrid war between Russia and NATO.
A look at hybrid incidents in 2025 ⬇️
#TopRisks2026
The most dangerous front in Europe this year will shift from the trenches in Donetsk to the hybrid war between Russia and NATO.
A look at hybrid incidents in 2025 ⬇️
#TopRisks2026
February 24, 2026 at 2:00 PM
As the fighting in Ukraine enters its fifth year, the greatest danger this year lies elsewhere.
The most dangerous front in Europe this year will shift from the trenches in Donetsk to the hybrid war between Russia and NATO.
A look at hybrid incidents in 2025 ⬇️
#TopRisks2026
The most dangerous front in Europe this year will shift from the trenches in Donetsk to the hybrid war between Russia and NATO.
A look at hybrid incidents in 2025 ⬇️
#TopRisks2026
This year’s @munsecconf.bsky.social report states that “the US-led post-1945 international order is now under destruction.”
In line with our #TopRisks2026: “The United States is itself unwinding its own global order.”
#MSC2026
In line with our #TopRisks2026: “The United States is itself unwinding its own global order.”
#MSC2026
Munich Security Report 2026
The Munich Security Report 2026 analyzes the far-reaching consequences of the rise of political forces that favor destruction over reform.
securityconference.org
February 13, 2026 at 6:15 PM
This year’s @munsecconf.bsky.social report states that “the US-led post-1945 international order is now under destruction.”
In line with our #TopRisks2026: “The United States is itself unwinding its own global order.”
#MSC2026
In line with our #TopRisks2026: “The United States is itself unwinding its own global order.”
#MSC2026
Refresher on Risk #8 from #TopRisks2026: AI eats its users:
“In 2026, growing pressure for many US AI labs to demonstrate a path to profitability will accelerate the
shift to extractive and socially dysfunctional business models.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/opinion/openai-ads-chatgpt.html
“In 2026, growing pressure for many US AI labs to demonstrate a path to profitability will accelerate the
shift to extractive and socially dysfunctional business models.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/opinion/openai-ads-chatgpt.html
Opinion | OpenAI Is Making the Mistakes Facebook Made. I Quit.
www.nytimes.com
February 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM
Refresher on Risk #8 from #TopRisks2026: AI eats its users:
“In 2026, growing pressure for many US AI labs to demonstrate a path to profitability will accelerate the
shift to extractive and socially dysfunctional business models.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/opinion/openai-ads-chatgpt.html
“In 2026, growing pressure for many US AI labs to demonstrate a path to profitability will accelerate the
shift to extractive and socially dysfunctional business models.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/opinion/openai-ads-chatgpt.html
“The world’s most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution."
@ianbremmer.com and Cliff Kupchan say that the US is “the principal source of global risk in 2026.”
#TopRisks2026
@ianbremmer.com and Cliff Kupchan say that the US is “the principal source of global risk in 2026.”
#TopRisks2026
Is the US making the world a riskier place?
www.politico.com
February 6, 2026 at 9:00 PM
“The world’s most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution."
@ianbremmer.com and Cliff Kupchan say that the US is “the principal source of global risk in 2026.”
#TopRisks2026
@ianbremmer.com and Cliff Kupchan say that the US is “the principal source of global risk in 2026.”
#TopRisks2026
The United States remains the most investable major economy in the world, even if that edge is narrowing.
The core reason: TINA (there is no alternative).
#TopRisks2026
The core reason: TINA (there is no alternative).
#TopRisks2026
February 2, 2026 at 2:00 PM
The United States remains the most investable major economy in the world, even if that edge is narrowing.
The core reason: TINA (there is no alternative).
#TopRisks2026
The core reason: TINA (there is no alternative).
#TopRisks2026
Geopolitics are becoming more anarchic and competitive—that’s the G-Zero world we’ve been warning about for over a decade.
But spheres of influence? The world is messier than that—and far harder to carve up.
#TopRisks2026
But spheres of influence? The world is messier than that—and far harder to carve up.
#TopRisks2026
February 1, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Geopolitics are becoming more anarchic and competitive—that’s the G-Zero world we’ve been warning about for over a decade.
But spheres of influence? The world is messier than that—and far harder to carve up.
#TopRisks2026
But spheres of influence? The world is messier than that—and far harder to carve up.
#TopRisks2026
The US-China relationship is headed for at least a year of relative stability, for three reinforcing reasons.
Find out why in our #TopRisks2026 report ⬇️
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/red-herrings-2026
Find out why in our #TopRisks2026 report ⬇️
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/red-herrings-2026
Red Herrings: Eurasia Group's Top Risk of 2026
'Tariff Man’ at large. Deglobalization. Spheres of influence. Sell America. Eurasia Group’s 2026 Red Herrings.
www.eurasiagroup.net
January 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM
The US-China relationship is headed for at least a year of relative stability, for three reinforcing reasons.
Find out why in our #TopRisks2026 report ⬇️
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/red-herrings-2026
Find out why in our #TopRisks2026 report ⬇️
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/red-herrings-2026
Outside of the US, no other country will be as profoundly affected by our #1 risk, US political revolution, as Canada.
From trade to defense policy, see the implications of our #TopRisks2026 on Canada ⬇️
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-Risks-2026-Implications-for-Canada
From trade to defense policy, see the implications of our #TopRisks2026 on Canada ⬇️
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-Risks-2026-Implications-for-Canada
Eurasia Group | Top Risks 2026: Implications for Canada
The key takeaways from Eurasia Group’s Top Risks 2026 report for Canada.
www.eurasiagroup.net
January 29, 2026 at 3:00 PM
Outside of the US, no other country will be as profoundly affected by our #1 risk, US political revolution, as Canada.
From trade to defense policy, see the implications of our #TopRisks2026 on Canada ⬇️
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-Risks-2026-Implications-for-Canada
From trade to defense policy, see the implications of our #TopRisks2026 on Canada ⬇️
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-Risks-2026-Implications-for-Canada
Our #TopRisks2026 report includes 4 Red Herrings.
Some people think these are big risks heading into 2026. We don’t.
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/red-herrings-2026
Some people think these are big risks heading into 2026. We don’t.
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/red-herrings-2026
January 28, 2026 at 2:00 PM
Our #TopRisks2026 report includes 4 Red Herrings.
Some people think these are big risks heading into 2026. We don’t.
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/red-herrings-2026
Some people think these are big risks heading into 2026. We don’t.
https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/red-herrings-2026
Our #TopRisks2026 will have a modest impact on Brazil, with some risks even benefitting the country in the near term.
Brazil's competitive 2026 elections will be decisive for its political outlook, and some risks have the potential to tilt the balance.
Brazil's competitive 2026 elections will be decisive for its political outlook, and some risks have the potential to tilt the balance.
Eurasia Group | Top Risks 2026: Implications for Brazil
The key takeaways from Eurasia Group’s Top Risks 2026 report for Brazil.
www.eurasiagroup.net
January 23, 2026 at 4:18 PM
Our #TopRisks2026 will have a modest impact on Brazil, with some risks even benefitting the country in the near term.
Brazil's competitive 2026 elections will be decisive for its political outlook, and some risks have the potential to tilt the balance.
Brazil's competitive 2026 elections will be decisive for its political outlook, and some risks have the potential to tilt the balance.
Japan entered 2026 under economic pressure from inflation, a weak yen, and a growing debt burden.
Implications from several of our #TopRisks2026—such as China’s deflation trap and Zombie USMCA—pose additional challenges for PM Takaichi Sanae.
Implications from several of our #TopRisks2026—such as China’s deflation trap and Zombie USMCA—pose additional challenges for PM Takaichi Sanae.
Eurasia Group | Top Risks 2026: Implications for Japan
The key takeaways from Eurasia Group’s Top Risks 2026 report for Japan.
www.eurasiagroup.net
January 22, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Japan entered 2026 under economic pressure from inflation, a weak yen, and a growing debt burden.
Implications from several of our #TopRisks2026—such as China’s deflation trap and Zombie USMCA—pose additional challenges for PM Takaichi Sanae.
Implications from several of our #TopRisks2026—such as China’s deflation trap and Zombie USMCA—pose additional challenges for PM Takaichi Sanae.
Almost all our #TopRisks2026 hit Europe at its weakest points, contributing to the perfect storm that has been brewing in the G-Zero era.
From distraught leaders to piecemeal progress on competitiveness, check out the implications for Europe:
From distraught leaders to piecemeal progress on competitiveness, check out the implications for Europe:
Eurasia Group | Top Risks 2026: Implications for Europe
The key takeaways from Eurasia Group’s Top Risks 2026 report for Europe.
www.eurasiagroup.net
January 20, 2026 at 6:45 PM
Almost all our #TopRisks2026 hit Europe at its weakest points, contributing to the perfect storm that has been brewing in the G-Zero era.
From distraught leaders to piecemeal progress on competitiveness, check out the implications for Europe:
From distraught leaders to piecemeal progress on competitiveness, check out the implications for Europe:
Half of humanity already lives under water stress, and there’s no architecture to manage it.
As water becomes the most contested shared resource on the planet, it will also become a loaded weapon in several of the world’s most dangerous rivalries.
#TopRisks2026
As water becomes the most contested shared resource on the planet, it will also become a loaded weapon in several of the world’s most dangerous rivalries.
#TopRisks2026
January 19, 2026 at 3:01 PM
Half of humanity already lives under water stress, and there’s no architecture to manage it.
As water becomes the most contested shared resource on the planet, it will also become a loaded weapon in several of the world’s most dangerous rivalries.
#TopRisks2026
As water becomes the most contested shared resource on the planet, it will also become a loaded weapon in several of the world’s most dangerous rivalries.
#TopRisks2026
Why lock into an agreement when the current approach keeps delivering for the American president and neither Canada nor Mexico can afford to walk away?
Trump holds the cards and he knows it.
Zombie USMCA is #9 on #TopRisks2026:
Trump holds the cards and he knows it.
Zombie USMCA is #9 on #TopRisks2026:
January 17, 2026 at 3:00 PM
Why lock into an agreement when the current approach keeps delivering for the American president and neither Canada nor Mexico can afford to walk away?
Trump holds the cards and he knows it.
Zombie USMCA is #9 on #TopRisks2026:
Trump holds the cards and he knows it.
Zombie USMCA is #9 on #TopRisks2026:
In 2026, growing pressure for AI companies to demonstrate profitability will accelerate the shift to extractive and socially disruptive business models.
The near-term threat is not superhuman machines but the decline of thinking, feeling, and social humans.
#TopRisks2026
The near-term threat is not superhuman machines but the decline of thinking, feeling, and social humans.
#TopRisks2026
January 16, 2026 at 5:30 PM
In 2026, growing pressure for AI companies to demonstrate profitability will accelerate the shift to extractive and socially disruptive business models.
The near-term threat is not superhuman machines but the decline of thinking, feeling, and social humans.
#TopRisks2026
The near-term threat is not superhuman machines but the decline of thinking, feeling, and social humans.
#TopRisks2026