Despite the Bank of Canada's recent interest rate increase to 2.5%, variable mortgage rates continue to offer potential savings compared to fixed rates for many Canadian borrowers. The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate for the first time in three years, moving from 2.25% to 2.5%, which has caused some concern among mortgage shoppers. However, according to mortgage broker David Larock, variable rates are still significantly lower than fixed rates, with variable rates available in the high 3% range while fixed rates sit in the high 4% range. The shift toward variable mortgages has been significant, with nearly half of consumers taking out or renewing mortgages in 2026 choosing variable rates compared to less than 10% in 2024, according to National Bank of Canada data. This trend has been driven by the bond market turmoil that has pushed fixed mortgage rates higher while variable rates, tied to the Bank of Canada's headline rate, have remained relatively stable. Larock explains that fixed rates are influenced by bond yields, which reflect investors' expectations about inflation and global market conditions. He notes that the bond market is pricing in additional Bank of Canada rate hikes, but if these don't materialize, borrowers who lock into fixed rates may end up paying more than necessary. Mortgage broker Ron Butler cautions that fixed rates may be more appropriate for borrowers with limited financial flexibility or those who prefer predictable payments, especially first-time homebuyers who face unexpected expenses. While variable rates may save money over the long term, they require a higher risk tolerance and financial buffer. The decision ultimately depends on individual circumstances, including risk tolerance, financial situation, and whether the borrower is a first-time homebuyer or experienced homeowner. Economists like Kari Norman from Desjardins suggest that the Bank of Canada may deliver another rate increase in December before pausing, but the potential resolution of global conflicts could lead to rate cuts sooner than expected. For many borrowers, the choice between variable and fixed rates remains a balancing act between potential savings and financial security.

Secondo le previsioni degli esperti, il tasso variabile potrebbe scendere sotto il 2% entro settembre 2025. Ma sarà effettivamente così?