May 18, 2025 at 12:04 PM
🧵 What Really Moves Voters? A Research-Based Look at Campaign Influence
#VoteFocus
Today’s elections in Romania, Poland, and Portugal—each under the shadow of relentless Russian influence operations—are once again putting the fate of democracy to the test.
#VoteFocus
Today’s elections in Romania, Poland, and Portugal—each under the shadow of relentless Russian influence operations—are once again putting the fate of democracy to the test.
May 18, 2025 at 11:01 AM
🧵 What Really Moves Voters? A Research-Based Look at Campaign Influence
#VoteFocus
Today’s elections in Romania, Poland, and Portugal—each under the shadow of relentless Russian influence operations—are once again putting the fate of democracy to the test.
#VoteFocus
Today’s elections in Romania, Poland, and Portugal—each under the shadow of relentless Russian influence operations—are once again putting the fate of democracy to the test.
I wanted to understand what’s under the hood of voter decision-making.
So I looked at the latest research.
#VoteFocus
So I looked at the latest research.
#VoteFocus
May 18, 2025 at 11:02 AM
I wanted to understand what’s under the hood of voter decision-making.
So I looked at the latest research.
#VoteFocus
So I looked at the latest research.
#VoteFocus
This is part of a broader mission:
Turn rigorous research into accessible public knowledge.
Because elections aren’t just won with votes.
They’re shaped by stories, timing, and what people are primed to care about.
Let’s dig in.
#VoteFocus
Turn rigorous research into accessible public knowledge.
Because elections aren’t just won with votes.
They’re shaped by stories, timing, and what people are primed to care about.
Let’s dig in.
#VoteFocus
May 18, 2025 at 11:02 AM
This is part of a broader mission:
Turn rigorous research into accessible public knowledge.
Because elections aren’t just won with votes.
They’re shaped by stories, timing, and what people are primed to care about.
Let’s dig in.
#VoteFocus
Turn rigorous research into accessible public knowledge.
Because elections aren’t just won with votes.
They’re shaped by stories, timing, and what people are primed to care about.
Let’s dig in.
#VoteFocus
🧵 What really moves voters?
Not debates.
Not party ads.
Not last-minute shocks.
The research shows: influence happens slowly—by shaping what people notice, focus on, and feel urgency about.
Here’s what we’ve learned.
#VoteFocus
Not debates.
Not party ads.
Not last-minute shocks.
The research shows: influence happens slowly—by shaping what people notice, focus on, and feel urgency about.
Here’s what we’ve learned.
#VoteFocus
May 18, 2025 at 12:04 PM
🧵 What really moves voters?
Not debates.
Not party ads.
Not last-minute shocks.
The research shows: influence happens slowly—by shaping what people notice, focus on, and feel urgency about.
Here’s what we’ve learned.
#VoteFocus
Not debates.
Not party ads.
Not last-minute shocks.
The research shows: influence happens slowly—by shaping what people notice, focus on, and feel urgency about.
Here’s what we’ve learned.
#VoteFocus
Over the next threads, I’ll break it down:
How voters decide late—but not randomly
Why debates don’t do what we think
How campaigns reframe attention, not beliefs
How youth engagement spikes—and why it fades
#VoteFocus
How voters decide late—but not randomly
Why debates don’t do what we think
How campaigns reframe attention, not beliefs
How youth engagement spikes—and why it fades
#VoteFocus
May 18, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Over the next threads, I’ll break it down:
How voters decide late—but not randomly
Why debates don’t do what we think
How campaigns reframe attention, not beliefs
How youth engagement spikes—and why it fades
#VoteFocus
How voters decide late—but not randomly
Why debates don’t do what we think
How campaigns reframe attention, not beliefs
How youth engagement spikes—and why it fades
#VoteFocus
Sources (with full links):
Le Pennec & Pons (2022) – www.nber.org/papers/...
Jun & Lee (2025) – arxiv.org/pdf/2503.0...
Shaki et al. (2024) – arxiv.org/pdf/2412.1...
Eckstein et al. (2024) – www.frontiersin.org/...
#VoteFocus
Le Pennec & Pons (2022) – www.nber.org/papers/...
Jun & Lee (2025) – arxiv.org/pdf/2503.0...
Shaki et al. (2024) – arxiv.org/pdf/2412.1...
Eckstein et al. (2024) – www.frontiersin.org/...
#VoteFocus
How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
www.nber.org
May 18, 2025 at 11:02 AM
Sources (with full links):
Le Pennec & Pons (2022) – www.nber.org/papers/...
Jun & Lee (2025) – arxiv.org/pdf/2503.0...
Shaki et al. (2024) – arxiv.org/pdf/2412.1...
Eckstein et al. (2024) – www.frontiersin.org/...
#VoteFocus
Le Pennec & Pons (2022) – www.nber.org/papers/...
Jun & Lee (2025) – arxiv.org/pdf/2503.0...
Shaki et al. (2024) – arxiv.org/pdf/2412.1...
Eckstein et al. (2024) – www.frontiersin.org/...
#VoteFocus
So what moves voters?
Not persuasion.
Not conversion.
But:
✅ Repeated cues
✅ Primed attention
✅ Framed urgency
✅ Timed visibility
✅ Trusted messengers
This is how influence works—even without a single lie.
#VoteFocus
Not persuasion.
Not conversion.
But:
✅ Repeated cues
✅ Primed attention
✅ Framed urgency
✅ Timed visibility
✅ Trusted messengers
This is how influence works—even without a single lie.
#VoteFocus
May 18, 2025 at 12:04 PM
So what moves voters?
Not persuasion.
Not conversion.
But:
✅ Repeated cues
✅ Primed attention
✅ Framed urgency
✅ Timed visibility
✅ Trusted messengers
This is how influence works—even without a single lie.
#VoteFocus
Not persuasion.
Not conversion.
But:
✅ Repeated cues
✅ Primed attention
✅ Framed urgency
✅ Timed visibility
✅ Trusted messengers
This is how influence works—even without a single lie.
#VoteFocus
If you care about truth in democracy, this changes your strategy:
– Don't chase viral moments. Build slow clarity.
– Don't rely on debates.
Inform in advance.
– Don’t just debunk lies. Challenge what’s salient.
– Stay present between cycles.
#VoteFocus
– Don't chase viral moments. Build slow clarity.
– Don't rely on debates.
Inform in advance.
– Don’t just debunk lies. Challenge what’s salient.
– Stay present between cycles.
#VoteFocus
May 18, 2025 at 12:04 PM
If you care about truth in democracy, this changes your strategy:
– Don't chase viral moments. Build slow clarity.
– Don't rely on debates.
Inform in advance.
– Don’t just debunk lies. Challenge what’s salient.
– Stay present between cycles.
#VoteFocus
– Don't chase viral moments. Build slow clarity.
– Don't rely on debates.
Inform in advance.
– Don’t just debunk lies. Challenge what’s salient.
– Stay present between cycles.
#VoteFocus
Sources for the series:
Le Pennec & Pons (2022) – www.nber.org/papers/...
Jun & Lee (2025) – arxiv.org/pdf/2503.0...
Shaki et al. (2024) – arxiv.org/pdf/2412.1...
Eckstein et al. (2024) – www.frontiersin.org/...
#VoteFocus
Le Pennec & Pons (2022) – www.nber.org/papers/...
Jun & Lee (2025) – arxiv.org/pdf/2503.0...
Shaki et al. (2024) – arxiv.org/pdf/2412.1...
Eckstein et al. (2024) – www.frontiersin.org/...
#VoteFocus
How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
www.nber.org
May 18, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Sources for the series:
Le Pennec & Pons (2022) – www.nber.org/papers/...
Jun & Lee (2025) – arxiv.org/pdf/2503.0...
Shaki et al. (2024) – arxiv.org/pdf/2412.1...
Eckstein et al. (2024) – www.frontiersin.org/...
#VoteFocus
Le Pennec & Pons (2022) – www.nber.org/papers/...
Jun & Lee (2025) – arxiv.org/pdf/2503.0...
Shaki et al. (2024) – arxiv.org/pdf/2412.1...
Eckstein et al. (2024) – www.frontiersin.org/...
#VoteFocus