Debates?

High drama, low impact.

Even under ideal conditions, their persuasive power is minimal—2–3% at best.

Campaigns don’t hinge on moments. They accumulate over time.

🧾 Jun & Lee (2025)
🔗 arxiv.org/pdf/2503.0...

#VoteFocus2

Sources:
Jun & Lee (2025)
Bounding the Effect of Persuasion
arxiv.org/pdf/2503.0...

Le Pennec & Pons (2022)
www.nber.org/papers/...

#VoteFocus2 #Disinformation #ForumThreads #MediaLiteracy #PersuasionMyths

So while parties and media chase “debate moments,” the real shifts happen through slower, more distributed channels:

– Headlines
– Social media cues
– Peer amplification
– Framing in repetition

Debates look big. Influence runs quiet.

#VoteFocus2

Here’s what matters more:

– Long-term perception of competence
– Trust cues built through repeated exposure
– Alignment with issue salience
– What your social circle thinks and shares

Debates don’t shape this. Campaign flow does.

#VoteFocus2

Jun & Lee (2025) revisited this question with updated models.

They tested the maximum persuasive effect debates could have under generous assumptions.

The result?
A ceiling of 2–3% vote shift, and that’s at the high end.

#VoteFocus2

TV debates are treated like campaign centerpieces.

They’re hyped, dissected, and expected to sway voters.

But here’s the reality—according to new and old data:

Debates almost never change the outcome.

#VoteFocus2