sometimes the best politics isn't purely optimizing your campaign's voteshare, you need to win the fight on the terrain that exists right now but you can also shape the battlefield
April 14, 2025 at 10:43 PM
sometimes the best politics isn't purely optimizing your campaign's voteshare, you need to win the fight on the terrain that exists right now but you can also shape the battlefield
Eh I wouldn't say that. Usually candidates with no perceived shot plummet in voteshare
September 25, 2026 at 8:22 PM
Eh I wouldn't say that. Usually candidates with no perceived shot plummet in voteshare
Haley Stevens is LOSING voteshare as *absentees* roll in oh you can call it now with 1 percent.
August 5, 2026 at 12:25 AM
Haley Stevens is LOSING voteshare as *absentees* roll in oh you can call it now with 1 percent.
"since coming second"
Again, I am begging journalists to learn how FPTP works.
If you're in an ultra-safe Conservative seat with 80% of the voteshare ... what voteshare would you need to "come second"?
Again, I am begging journalists to learn how FPTP works.
If you're in an ultra-safe Conservative seat with 80% of the voteshare ... what voteshare would you need to "come second"?
February 22, 2025 at 9:05 AM
"since coming second"
Again, I am begging journalists to learn how FPTP works.
If you're in an ultra-safe Conservative seat with 80% of the voteshare ... what voteshare would you need to "come second"?
Again, I am begging journalists to learn how FPTP works.
If you're in an ultra-safe Conservative seat with 80% of the voteshare ... what voteshare would you need to "come second"?
Also really important to understand - particularly looking at a chart like this - that voteshare dynamics are a bit logarithmic/sigmoid.
I.e. total Radical Right voteshare going from .3% to 3% is ~~as significant as going from 3% to 30%.
Think "cracks in a dam".
I.e. total Radical Right voteshare going from .3% to 3% is ~~as significant as going from 3% to 30%.
Think "cracks in a dam".
August 28, 2026 at 3:21 PM
Also really important to understand - particularly looking at a chart like this - that voteshare dynamics are a bit logarithmic/sigmoid.
I.e. total Radical Right voteshare going from .3% to 3% is ~~as significant as going from 3% to 30%.
Think "cracks in a dam".
I.e. total Radical Right voteshare going from .3% to 3% is ~~as significant as going from 3% to 30%.
Think "cracks in a dam".
Trump won by less than Bush did in '04! (In both absolute votes and relative voteshare)
It's sort of weird that they're acting like this an eternal victory.
It's sort of weird that they're acting like this an eternal victory.
January 17, 2025 at 2:52 AM
Trump won by less than Bush did in '04! (In both absolute votes and relative voteshare)
It's sort of weird that they're acting like this an eternal victory.
It's sort of weird that they're acting like this an eternal victory.
Kat went down in favorables but went up in voteshare. "vote for the streamer, it's important"
FAVORABILES: Modest drops in net favorability for Biss (+19, down 9%) and Kat (+5, down 3%), but whew Fine has had a bad couple weeks. She fell 23% from +1 to -22, and half of respondents had a neg opinion. Meanwhile Simmons' and Amiwala's positives are only growing as more voters know them.
March 11, 2026 at 3:53 AM
Kat went down in favorables but went up in voteshare. "vote for the streamer, it's important"
Honestly suspect half that Jr voteshare is people who thought it meant Senior
December 10, 2024 at 5:17 PM
Honestly suspect half that Jr voteshare is people who thought it meant Senior
One of the blindspots in the UK is realising that inter-party relations are part of democracy - you don't just add the %s up - it matters how your voters feel about other parties.
20% voteshare *but everyone else ****ing hates you* is less useful than 8% but being well-liked.
20% voteshare *but everyone else ****ing hates you* is less useful than 8% but being well-liked.
February 24, 2025 at 8:35 AM
One of the blindspots in the UK is realising that inter-party relations are part of democracy - you don't just add the %s up - it matters how your voters feel about other parties.
20% voteshare *but everyone else ****ing hates you* is less useful than 8% but being well-liked.
20% voteshare *but everyone else ****ing hates you* is less useful than 8% but being well-liked.
2019 Lib Dem voteshare: 11.6%
2024: 12.2%
Current polling: 12%
2024: 12.2%
Current polling: 12%
I think by now a lot of UK politics has actually converged to very familiar global far-right vs left catch-all
However, it is still funny to hear US ppl treat the Lib Dems as viable when they never, ever go up in voteshare and are not taken very seriously
However, it is still funny to hear US ppl treat the Lib Dems as viable when they never, ever go up in voteshare and are not taken very seriously
June 22, 2026 at 11:27 PM
2019 Lib Dem voteshare: 11.6%
2024: 12.2%
Current polling: 12%
2024: 12.2%
Current polling: 12%
"Dipping to 0% voteshare is all part of our plan to grow by inf % into the election, passing through this singularity will make our progress literally incalculable and thus uncounterable"
February 10, 2025 at 10:22 PM
"Dipping to 0% voteshare is all part of our plan to grow by inf % into the election, passing through this singularity will make our progress literally incalculable and thus uncounterable"
the power of positive thinking can enlarge labours voteshare by getting rid of keir starmer and putting a normal left of centre leader in
March 12, 2026 at 4:42 PM
the power of positive thinking can enlarge labours voteshare by getting rid of keir starmer and putting a normal left of centre leader in
if every city with a million people got an extra Senator then there would be more breathing room on the left
the nation's population is split pretty fuckin evenly down the middle, Republicans just get free voteshare due to the happenstance of our fifty states
the nation's population is split pretty fuckin evenly down the middle, Republicans just get free voteshare due to the happenstance of our fifty states
May 2, 2026 at 1:26 AM
if every city with a million people got an extra Senator then there would be more breathing room on the left
the nation's population is split pretty fuckin evenly down the middle, Republicans just get free voteshare due to the happenstance of our fifty states
the nation's population is split pretty fuckin evenly down the middle, Republicans just get free voteshare due to the happenstance of our fifty states
crowley and hong get approximately the same voteshare from barnes dropping
July 30, 2026 at 6:49 PM
crowley and hong get approximately the same voteshare from barnes dropping
i think 2012 polling is relevant to the issue of whether Cubans could ever be convinced to vote for Democrats. it's also notable that 70% is about 15% lower than their voteshare in 2004.
December 6, 2025 at 2:36 AM
i think 2012 polling is relevant to the issue of whether Cubans could ever be convinced to vote for Democrats. it's also notable that 70% is about 15% lower than their voteshare in 2004.
Trying to claim election interference with two parties doubling your voteshare is much harder
December 1, 2025 at 5:31 AM
Trying to claim election interference with two parties doubling your voteshare is much harder
Should also be noted that in 2024 Scotland was the one bit of the country where Labour saw a net gain in voteshare (IIRC)
February 9, 2026 at 12:26 AM
Should also be noted that in 2024 Scotland was the one bit of the country where Labour saw a net gain in voteshare (IIRC)
Die Linke losing voteshare here is low-key embarrassing even if this is the worst possible territory for them (think running a DSA candidate in rural Arkansas)
Germany, 95.1% of electoral districts counted:
Saxony-Anhalt regional parliament election
AfD (ESN): 44.6% (+23.8)
CDU (EPP): 16.9% (-20.2)
SPD (S&D): 9.1% (+0.7)
GRÜNE (Greens/EFA): 8.9% (+3.0)
LINKE (LEFT): 8.4% (-2.6)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/germany
Saxony-Anhalt regional parliament election
AfD (ESN): 44.6% (+23.8)
CDU (EPP): 16.9% (-20.2)
SPD (S&D): 9.1% (+0.7)
GRÜNE (Greens/EFA): 8.9% (+3.0)
LINKE (LEFT): 8.4% (-2.6)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/germany
September 6, 2026 at 9:25 PM
Die Linke losing voteshare here is low-key embarrassing even if this is the worst possible territory for them (think running a DSA candidate in rural Arkansas)
Emerson had a big miss in the Republican governor primary as well by underestimating John James' voteshare by 10%. Once again, this was because they got too many young people in the sample.
I don't know if I've ever seen this; no pollster misses by getting too many 18-45 Republicans...
I don't know if I've ever seen this; no pollster misses by getting too many 18-45 Republicans...
August 6, 2026 at 2:18 AM
Emerson had a big miss in the Republican governor primary as well by underestimating John James' voteshare by 10%. Once again, this was because they got too many young people in the sample.
I don't know if I've ever seen this; no pollster misses by getting too many 18-45 Republicans...
I don't know if I've ever seen this; no pollster misses by getting too many 18-45 Republicans...
Berge actually did better than Hong by about 6% on voteshare in Eau Claire.
August 12, 2026 at 3:59 PM
Berge actually did better than Hong by about 6% on voteshare in Eau Claire.
"Big majority"
Labour got a lower voteshare than the Tories did in the coalition government.
They went in to this pretending to have a collosal mandate, then proceeded to two face every decision.
Deepened austerity while saying they were investing.
Attacking migrants while saying they weren't racist
Labour got a lower voteshare than the Tories did in the coalition government.
They went in to this pretending to have a collosal mandate, then proceeded to two face every decision.
Deepened austerity while saying they were investing.
Attacking migrants while saying they weren't racist
June 22, 2026 at 8:49 AM
"Big majority"
Labour got a lower voteshare than the Tories did in the coalition government.
They went in to this pretending to have a collosal mandate, then proceeded to two face every decision.
Deepened austerity while saying they were investing.
Attacking migrants while saying they weren't racist
Labour got a lower voteshare than the Tories did in the coalition government.
They went in to this pretending to have a collosal mandate, then proceeded to two face every decision.
Deepened austerity while saying they were investing.
Attacking migrants while saying they weren't racist
I don't want another word about AES being a weak candidate. Benson is only one point ahead of him in her own race. He's doing fine, they will all gain voteshare as time goes on.
August 1, 2026 at 12:08 AM
I don't want another word about AES being a weak candidate. Benson is only one point ahead of him in her own race. He's doing fine, they will all gain voteshare as time goes on.
yes. in 2022, losses in democratic voteshare were concentrated in NY/CA. they overperformed in swing states.
October 24, 2024 at 7:07 PM
yes. in 2022, losses in democratic voteshare were concentrated in NY/CA. they overperformed in swing states.
Every incumbent party in the developed world lost significant voteshare in 2024. I have no idea why the narrative here is "Harris lost a layup" rather than "Harris' campaign couldn't overcome near-impossible headwinds" in the face of millions who wanted to hit the "make it 2019 again" button
June 9, 2025 at 3:38 AM
Every incumbent party in the developed world lost significant voteshare in 2024. I have no idea why the narrative here is "Harris lost a layup" rather than "Harris' campaign couldn't overcome near-impossible headwinds" in the face of millions who wanted to hit the "make it 2019 again" button