Status on Trump's mail ballot EO:
- The fed gov't did not send NC a list of citizens
- NC & voters did not contest the non-existent list
- NC did not match the non-existent list & the voterfile
- NC did not upload voterfile to a non-existent portal
- NC did not print special mail ballot envelopes
- The fed gov't did not send NC a list of citizens
- NC & voters did not contest the non-existent list
- NC did not match the non-existent list & the voterfile
- NC did not upload voterfile to a non-existent portal
- NC did not print special mail ballot envelopes
September 4, 2026 at 2:07 PM
Status on Trump's mail ballot EO:
- The fed gov't did not send NC a list of citizens
- NC & voters did not contest the non-existent list
- NC did not match the non-existent list & the voterfile
- NC did not upload voterfile to a non-existent portal
- NC did not print special mail ballot envelopes
- The fed gov't did not send NC a list of citizens
- NC & voters did not contest the non-existent list
- NC did not match the non-existent list & the voterfile
- NC did not upload voterfile to a non-existent portal
- NC did not print special mail ballot envelopes
we are absolutely going to find out this is based on
> grepl("gonzalez", voterfile$last_name) %>% sum()
or something
> grepl("gonzalez", voterfile$last_name) %>% sum()
or something
July 16, 2026 at 11:28 PM
we are absolutely going to find out this is based on
> grepl("gonzalez", voterfile$last_name) %>% sum()
or something
> grepl("gonzalez", voterfile$last_name) %>% sum()
or something
Once we had post-election voterfile updates we fielded another survey of 18-29 men and found a Trump+5 electorate where economic anxiety and precarity predicted supporting Democrats, while sexism, homophobia, and transphobia predicted support for Republicans
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com
July 22, 2025 at 12:22 AM
Once we had post-election voterfile updates we fielded another survey of 18-29 men and found a Trump+5 electorate where economic anxiety and precarity predicted supporting Democrats, while sexism, homophobia, and transphobia predicted support for Republicans
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com
youngmenresearchinitiative.substack.com
If anyone would like to tell them how they feel about this decision: dfl.org/contact/
Contact the DFL | Minnesota DFL
Information info@dfl.org Press press@dfl.org Website website@dfl.org PCR Contributions pcr@dfl.org Voterfile voterfile@dfl.org Training training@dfl.org DFL Chair chair@dfl.org Executive Director exec...
dfl.org
August 21, 2025 at 11:46 PM
If anyone would like to tell them how they feel about this decision: dfl.org/contact/
Heard a story from Obama 2012 that the vast majority of self identified “black” Romney supporters were listed as white on the voterfile they were drawing samples from
March 5, 2024 at 9:55 PM
Heard a story from Obama 2012 that the vast majority of self identified “black” Romney supporters were listed as white on the voterfile they were drawing samples from
This matters to perhaps a few hundred or so people, but “voter file” is two words. “Voterfile” is grotesque.
May 18, 2025 at 11:33 AM
This matters to perhaps a few hundred or so people, but “voter file” is two words. “Voterfile” is grotesque.
Welp, 23 months til the next election and I'm already at "why is Maine's voterfile 2200 bucks" resistlib level
December 1, 2024 at 8:51 PM
Welp, 23 months til the next election and I'm already at "why is Maine's voterfile 2200 bucks" resistlib level
fucking knew it.
"registered Democrat" is probably also a lie but I'm too lazy to check the voterfile
"registered Democrat" is probably also a lie but I'm too lazy to check the voterfile
not for nothing but like most public trump supporters his first answer is also a total fucking lie.
August 5, 2024 at 10:23 PM
fucking knew it.
"registered Democrat" is probably also a lie but I'm too lazy to check the voterfile
"registered Democrat" is probably also a lie but I'm too lazy to check the voterfile
voterfile data has measurement error (old party registrations != current party preference)
survey data has nonresponse bias (survey takers are not representative of population)
survey data has nonresponse bias (survey takers are not representative of population)
May 16, 2025 at 8:36 PM
voterfile data has measurement error (old party registrations != current party preference)
survey data has nonresponse bias (survey takers are not representative of population)
survey data has nonresponse bias (survey takers are not representative of population)
One of the reasons calling from a voterfile reigns supreme in polling
August 25, 2024 at 11:59 PM
One of the reasons calling from a voterfile reigns supreme in polling
Ok, I just need to say this: I am tired of being in data conferences where the focus is always on electoral data. I can't tell if it's because that's not the data I roll in; or because I don't understand it, not really. I'm tired of the focus on the voterfile, goddamnit.
May 9, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Ok, I just need to say this: I am tired of being in data conferences where the focus is always on electoral data. I can't tell if it's because that's not the data I roll in; or because I don't understand it, not really. I'm tired of the focus on the voterfile, goddamnit.
oh yeah I don't want to undersell the Lisan al-Gaib moment of seeing the voterfile turnout data
but at the same time I also would not recommend anyone else plot a path to victory on analogous turnout dynamics
(in particular Hakeem surely knows how to turn out his base, while Cuomo didn't even try)
but at the same time I also would not recommend anyone else plot a path to victory on analogous turnout dynamics
(in particular Hakeem surely knows how to turn out his base, while Cuomo didn't even try)
January 8, 2026 at 7:23 PM
oh yeah I don't want to undersell the Lisan al-Gaib moment of seeing the voterfile turnout data
but at the same time I also would not recommend anyone else plot a path to victory on analogous turnout dynamics
(in particular Hakeem surely knows how to turn out his base, while Cuomo didn't even try)
but at the same time I also would not recommend anyone else plot a path to victory on analogous turnout dynamics
(in particular Hakeem surely knows how to turn out his base, while Cuomo didn't even try)
The state of Florida can afford to build a Catherine Zeta Jones green laser tripwire around every voting location in every Democratic precinct in the state and yet this remains how they schlep around their voterfile
April 29, 2025 at 1:47 AM
The state of Florida can afford to build a Catherine Zeta Jones green laser tripwire around every voting location in every Democratic precinct in the state and yet this remains how they schlep around their voterfile
...they just sent you the whole voter file? That's crazy, when I worked in civic tech, doing any lookups to the voterfile database was immediate grounds for termination. Admittedly, it was the whole national aggregate voterfiles, but even still, I thought there were supposed to be, like, controls?
March 12, 2026 at 8:58 PM
...they just sent you the whole voter file? That's crazy, when I worked in civic tech, doing any lookups to the voterfile database was immediate grounds for termination. Admittedly, it was the whole national aggregate voterfiles, but even still, I thought there were supposed to be, like, controls?
More likely human idiocy when cutting the turf
Just because the modeling data is in the voterfile doesn’t mean it’s going to be used correctly by every single person haha
Just because the modeling data is in the voterfile doesn’t mean it’s going to be used correctly by every single person haha
July 26, 2026 at 2:42 PM
More likely human idiocy when cutting the turf
Just because the modeling data is in the voterfile doesn’t mean it’s going to be used correctly by every single person haha
Just because the modeling data is in the voterfile doesn’t mean it’s going to be used correctly by every single person haha
Winning campaigns don't run on gut instinct. They run on a clean voter file + real election history + an actual targeting plan.
Read more + subscribe: ndtc.me/substack
#NDTC #TrainDems #CampaignData #VoterFile #DemocraticTraining #RunForOffice #FieldOrganizing #DataInformed #GrassrootsOrganizing
Read more + subscribe: ndtc.me/substack
#NDTC #TrainDems #CampaignData #VoterFile #DemocraticTraining #RunForOffice #FieldOrganizing #DataInformed #GrassrootsOrganizing
August 5, 2026 at 8:15 PM
Winning campaigns don't run on gut instinct. They run on a clean voter file + real election history + an actual targeting plan.
Read more + subscribe: ndtc.me/substack
#NDTC #TrainDems #CampaignData #VoterFile #DemocraticTraining #RunForOffice #FieldOrganizing #DataInformed #GrassrootsOrganizing
Read more + subscribe: ndtc.me/substack
#NDTC #TrainDems #CampaignData #VoterFile #DemocraticTraining #RunForOffice #FieldOrganizing #DataInformed #GrassrootsOrganizing
Someone with access to a voterfile could probably pretty quickly narrow things down with her age since she turned 24 in between interviews
September 17, 2024 at 10:21 PM
Someone with access to a voterfile could probably pretty quickly narrow things down with her age since she turned 24 in between interviews
( just to clarify, this is basically poststratification which is a super common technique and is fine in the absence of a more direct comparison which would have to wait until the voterfile updates are done. the analysis is good )
November 7, 2025 at 2:08 PM
( just to clarify, this is basically poststratification which is a super common technique and is fine in the absence of a more direct comparison which would have to wait until the voterfile updates are done. the analysis is good )
You supply the postage I'll supply the MS Paint graphic design and the voterfile randomization
December 26, 2024 at 12:06 AM
You supply the postage I'll supply the MS Paint graphic design and the voterfile randomization
Someone needs to do a deep dive into the voterfile data, correlate with zip codes, and figure out how to peel off enough voters in heavily gerrymandered districts to break the gerrymander. Maybe some of the laid off tech folks could give it a go.
April 9, 2025 at 3:21 PM
Someone needs to do a deep dive into the voterfile data, correlate with zip codes, and figure out how to peel off enough voters in heavily gerrymandered districts to break the gerrymander. Maybe some of the laid off tech folks could give it a go.
this is one of those things where campaign pollsters will have an advantages because they'll be working off of a voterfile that's tracked (or tried to at least) people as they move state to state and filled in their vote history accordingly.
May 13, 2024 at 7:16 PM
this is one of those things where campaign pollsters will have an advantages because they'll be working off of a voterfile that's tracked (or tried to at least) people as they move state to state and filled in their vote history accordingly.
NC Democratic Party needs to pull up the voterfile and get the contact info they have for anyone on this list, then barrage them with email, phone, and snail mail to get their vote cured.
They cannot sit back and rely on social media posts to somehow save things.
They cannot sit back and rely on social media posts to somehow save things.
April 5, 2025 at 12:20 AM
NC Democratic Party needs to pull up the voterfile and get the contact info they have for anyone on this list, then barrage them with email, phone, and snail mail to get their vote cured.
They cannot sit back and rely on social media posts to somehow save things.
They cannot sit back and rely on social media posts to somehow save things.
This isn't polling this is just the voterfile but the drop-off among younger men is particularly precipitous and is several times larger for Black and Latino young men than for whites -- catalist.us/whathappened... -- as a % of the population don't get me wrong, whites are still fucking up, but to
July 31, 2025 at 6:58 PM
This isn't polling this is just the voterfile but the drop-off among younger men is particularly precipitous and is several times larger for Black and Latino young men than for whites -- catalist.us/whathappened... -- as a % of the population don't get me wrong, whites are still fucking up, but to
After seeing the photo of (allegedly)Cyndy Martin's car someone was kind enough to share, I uh. Sent an email to party affairs with similar points as above. And am sharing this contact list in case anyone else is feeling like a late night email essentially going, "Hey uh...Wtf?"
Contact the DFL | Minnesota DFL
Information info@dfl.org Press press@dfl.org Website website@dfl.org PCR Contributions pcr@dfl.org Voterfile voterfile@dfl.org Training training@dfl.org DFL Chair chair@dfl.org Executive Director exec...
dfl.org
November 14, 2025 at 4:46 AM
After seeing the photo of (allegedly)Cyndy Martin's car someone was kind enough to share, I uh. Sent an email to party affairs with similar points as above. And am sharing this contact list in case anyone else is feeling like a late night email essentially going, "Hey uh...Wtf?"
I mean what this person is saying is someone should give me extremely large sums of money to run large cross-sectional surveys matched to the voterfile and in that respect this person is clearly correct
January 5, 2025 at 8:53 PM
I mean what this person is saying is someone should give me extremely large sums of money to run large cross-sectional surveys matched to the voterfile and in that respect this person is clearly correct