Global trade proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2026 despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, as supply chains adapted and strong investment in artificial intelligence provided a powerful boost to goods trade. However, the resilience was not uniform, with services trade and some regions more exposed to the effects of the conflict. WTO economists have therefore raised the forecast for merchandise trade growth in 2026 while lowering the outlook for services trade.

Global goods trade continued to strengthen in mid-2026 despite persistent geopolitical and policy-related uncertainties, according to the WTO Goods Trade Barometer released on 9 September 2026.

The volume of world merchandise trade rose 3.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 as imports surged in North America in anticipation of higher tariffs in the United...

The WTO published on 29 June the 2026 edition of World Tariff Profiles, an annual publication providing comprehensive information on tariffs and non-tariff measures imposed by over 150 economies. It is a joint publication with the International Trade Centre (ITC) and UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

Global merchandise trade appears to have remained resilient in the first half of 2026 despite headwinds from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which seem to have been partly offset by rising demand for electronic components related to investment in artificial intelligence, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer.

The new WTO Monthly Merchandise Trade Statistics interactive tool provides access to bilateral trade data for over 120 economies and more than 200 of their trading partners across 72 product categories. The tool, contained in the WTO's Tariff and Trade Data portal, is updated weekly and draws on statistics from Trade Data Monitor (TDM), which sources trade data from government offices and agencies across the world.

Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. In response, WTO economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4% (up from 0.9% in August). However, the 2026 projection has been lowered to 0.5% (from 1.8%). Global services exports growth is expected to slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.

The outlook for world trade in 2026 will be shaped by two powerful and opposite forces. On the one hand, the extraordinary momentum of investment in artificial intelligence (AI) continues to energize global demand for high-tech goods and digitally delivered services. On the other hand, the conflict in the Middle East - and the resulting spike in energy and transport costs - could weigh heavily on world trade and output.

World trade is set to slow in 2026 following stronger than expected growth in 2025 on the back of surging trade in AI-enabling products. WTO economists warn that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could further reduce trade growth if energy prices remain elevated, noting that it would also put pressure on food supplies and services trade due to travel and transport disruptions. Prospects could still improve if the conflict ends quickly and the boom in AI spending continues.

Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world. In response, WTO economists raised the 2025 merchandise trade growth forecast to 2.4% (up from 0.9% in August). However, the 2026 projection has been lowered to 0.5% (from 1.8%). Global services exports growth is expected to slow from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.

World merchandise trade is now projected to grow 0.9% in 2025, up from the —0.2% contraction forecasted in April but down from the 2.7% estimate pre-dating the tariff increases. The upgrade is mostly ...

World trade will continue to face strong headwinds in 2019 and 2020 after growing more slowly than expected in 2018 due to rising trade tensions and increased economic uncertainty. WTO economists expect merchandise trade volume growth to fall to 2.6% in 2019 — down from 3.0% in 2018. Trade growth could then rebound to 3.0% in 2020; however, this is dependent on an easing of trade tensions.

Trade weakness is likely to extend into the first quarter of 2019, according to the WTO’s latest World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) released on 19 February. The simultaneous decline of several trade-related indicators should put policy makers on guard for a sharper slowdown should the current trade tensions remain unresolved.