People will start hoarding TP because the necessary backwardation means a positive roll yield.
Trump’s promised tariffs on softwood lumber risk disrupting the supply chain for something nobody wants to be caught without: toilet paper.
NBSK pulp constitutes about 30% of standard US bathroom tissue and is currently sourced primarily from Canada.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
NBSK pulp constitutes about 30% of standard US bathroom tissue and is currently sourced primarily from Canada.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Tariffs on Canada Lumber Risk Pinching Toilet Paper Supply
President Donald Trump’s promised tariffs on softwood lumber risk disrupting the supply chain for something nobody wants to be caught without: toilet paper.
www.bloomberg.com
March 27, 2025 at 10:08 PM
People will start hoarding TP because the necessary backwardation means a positive roll yield.
If "backwardation" and "contango" mean nothing to you, here's some background reading.
Okay so this is going to be a long answer while my daughter watches Bluey, not a quick one-off. I’ll thread it all under this reply but it’s going to take some time to peck out.
June 3, 2026 at 10:43 AM
If "backwardation" and "contango" mean nothing to you, here's some background reading.
*WTI PROMPT BACKWARDATION HITS RECORD OF MORE THAN $15/BBL
WTI getting sqeeeeeeezzeeedd
WTI getting sqeeeeeeezzeeedd
April 2, 2026 at 1:14 PM
*WTI PROMPT BACKWARDATION HITS RECORD OF MORE THAN $15/BBL
WTI getting sqeeeeeeezzeeedd
WTI getting sqeeeeeeezzeeedd
Charting the Brent complex today to add some context to the numbers bouncing around.
Pretty well everything weird in the current oil market can be explained via *extreme* backwardation (i.e., near-term delivery premia), and that extends into even more acute backwardation in the physical Brent curve
Pretty well everything weird in the current oil market can be explained via *extreme* backwardation (i.e., near-term delivery premia), and that extends into even more acute backwardation in the physical Brent curve
April 14, 2026 at 6:23 PM
Charting the Brent complex today to add some context to the numbers bouncing around.
Pretty well everything weird in the current oil market can be explained via *extreme* backwardation (i.e., near-term delivery premia), and that extends into even more acute backwardation in the physical Brent curve
Pretty well everything weird in the current oil market can be explained via *extreme* backwardation (i.e., near-term delivery premia), and that extends into even more acute backwardation in the physical Brent curve
As @agelston.bsky.social has pointed out, backwardation drives #$USO higher than spot or front-month crude, because it's constantly selling the closest-to-delivery futures (high) and buying deferred futures (low). Crude curves have had a small backwardation since 2021, but this turbo-charges it.
April 2, 2026 at 1:47 PM
As @agelston.bsky.social has pointed out, backwardation drives #$USO higher than spot or front-month crude, because it's constantly selling the closest-to-delivery futures (high) and buying deferred futures (low). Crude curves have had a small backwardation since 2021, but this turbo-charges it.
The backwardation will continue until morale improves.
March 9, 2026 at 2:37 PM
The backwardation will continue until morale improves.
Time Travel: Backwardation to the Future.
March 5, 2026 at 8:12 PM
Time Travel: Backwardation to the Future.
Tariff squeeze raises roll yield on critical product for backwardation.
August 27, 2026 at 3:46 PM
Tariff squeeze raises roll yield on critical product for backwardation.
Who the hell called it oil market backwardation instead of the Buy of Hormuz?
April 2, 2026 at 1:56 PM
Who the hell called it oil market backwardation instead of the Buy of Hormuz?
If I am brushing up on backwardation and contango, things are bad.
April 3, 2026 at 2:27 AM
If I am brushing up on backwardation and contango, things are bad.
Make Non-Seasonal Freight Rate Backwardation Unpredictable & Great Again.
Scott Bessent pushes gradual 2.5% universal US tariffs plan
www.ft.com/content/7fb4...
www.ft.com/content/7fb4...
Scott Bessent pushes gradual 2.5% universal US tariffs plan
Trump’s nominee for Treasury secretary wants levies to rise month by month in order to give businesses time to adjust
www.ft.com
January 27, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Make Non-Seasonal Freight Rate Backwardation Unpredictable & Great Again.
Lemme tell you, it is possible to explain the concept of futures backwardation and contango to a drunk frat boy, you just need to have a sufficiently valuable commodity and some under-utilized dorm room space.
March 4, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Lemme tell you, it is possible to explain the concept of futures backwardation and contango to a drunk frat boy, you just need to have a sufficiently valuable commodity and some under-utilized dorm room space.
Normally, you would expect this extreme inventory draw to balance the market away from extreme backwardation and towards contango. But that hasn’t happened because supply isn’t recovering and demand isn’t falling.
May 25, 2026 at 6:45 PM
Normally, you would expect this extreme inventory draw to balance the market away from extreme backwardation and towards contango. But that hasn’t happened because supply isn’t recovering and demand isn’t falling.
No, rally still biggest at the front end, the backwardation just isn't that intense (yet)
July 13, 2026 at 6:06 PM
No, rally still biggest at the front end, the backwardation just isn't that intense (yet)
Stressed silver looking at backwardation backwards 1-17-2026
YouTube video by All Things Financial
youtu.be
January 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM
are dubai chocolates in backwardation?
April 4, 2026 at 7:23 PM
are dubai chocolates in backwardation?
Copper squeezing as front-month spread hits widest backwardation since 2021
August 15, 2026 at 4:37 AM
Copper squeezing as front-month spread hits widest backwardation since 2021
When the spot falls 90% the backwardation carry aint going to save them or anybody else
September 22, 2026 at 3:42 AM
When the spot falls 90% the backwardation carry aint going to save them or anybody else
Staying true to the hundreds of years of corruption and backwardation that has consistently barred them from early-adopting new technologies they'vebeen unable to steal, Moscow "air defenses" remain mired in a long lost era.
June 19, 2026 at 11:24 AM
Staying true to the hundreds of years of corruption and backwardation that has consistently barred them from early-adopting new technologies they'vebeen unable to steal, Moscow "air defenses" remain mired in a long lost era.
Note: this could change. Also first-second Brent future is still in 98th %ile backwardation vs past 30y. But like I said, watching closely. A crude rally with deferred months outperforming spot as spot rips is Bad News Bears if it shows up.
June 3, 2026 at 10:39 AM
Note: this could change. Also first-second Brent future is still in 98th %ile backwardation vs past 30y. But like I said, watching closely. A crude rally with deferred months outperforming spot as spot rips is Bad News Bears if it shows up.
The current market is EXTREMELY unusual because backwardation is very steep (incentivizing world historic inventory draws). The market is creating the incentive for the huge declines in inventories that are pushing a massive non-linear spot move further and further out in time.
May 25, 2026 at 6:45 PM
The current market is EXTREMELY unusual because backwardation is very steep (incentivizing world historic inventory draws). The market is creating the incentive for the huge declines in inventories that are pushing a massive non-linear spot move further and further out in time.
did oil backwardation just ... 👀
March 18, 2026 at 2:06 PM
did oil backwardation just ... 👀
Post above is not investment advice, OBVIOUSLY. You have no idea how long this backwardation will last and it takes a while for it have a real impact on USO relative to prompt crude so, y'know, don't go pile into this trade because you read my post.
April 2, 2026 at 1:51 PM
Post above is not investment advice, OBVIOUSLY. You have no idea how long this backwardation will last and it takes a while for it have a real impact on USO relative to prompt crude so, y'know, don't go pile into this trade because you read my post.
oh god I don't think I'm wrong 😭
$6 move in a single session is insane
$6 move in a single session is insane
March 18, 2026 at 2:10 PM
oh god I don't think I'm wrong 😭
$6 move in a single session is insane
$6 move in a single session is insane