It's a state law preempted by federal law, the Commodity Exchange Act. And this fucking greedy fucking administration won't outlaw prediction rackets.
July 27, 2026 at 9:15 PM
It's a state law preempted by federal law, the Commodity Exchange Act. And this fucking greedy fucking administration won't outlaw prediction rackets.
Congress has considered 20 pieces of legislation on prediction markets. The only one that has taken effect is a Senate resolution that limits Senators, officers, and staff from trading on prediction markets.
A fundamental problems is the bills don’t agree on what they’re regulating.
A fundamental problems is the bills don’t agree on what they’re regulating.
July 20, 2026 at 1:28 PM
Congress has considered 20 pieces of legislation on prediction markets. The only one that has taken effect is a Senate resolution that limits Senators, officers, and staff from trading on prediction markets.
A fundamental problems is the bills don’t agree on what they’re regulating.
A fundamental problems is the bills don’t agree on what they’re regulating.
You could take down and permanently bankrupt Kalshi and Polymarket tomorrow if the Commodity Exchange Act was actually being enforced.
September 14, 2026 at 2:35 PM
You could take down and permanently bankrupt Kalshi and Polymarket tomorrow if the Commodity Exchange Act was actually being enforced.
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, in a 3-0 ruling, allows states to regulate controversial prediction markets because they are gambling businesses. thenevadaindependent.com/arti...
Federal appeals court allows Nevada to ban Kalshi and other prediction markets - The Nevada Independent
The 9th Circuit panel wrote it disagreed "with Kalshi's overly broad reading" that the Commodity Exchange Act allows it to offer sports event contracts.
thenevadaindependent.com
August 28, 2026 at 9:42 PM
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, in a 3-0 ruling, allows states to regulate controversial prediction markets because they are gambling businesses. thenevadaindependent.com/arti...
Reed Shaw explains how new leadership at the CFTC, appointed after the Trump administration eliminated its independence, is disarming the agency and potentially preventing future meaningful oversight of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
The CFTC Is Tying Its Own Hands on Prediction Markets
How industry-friendly regulators are misapplying the Commodity Exchange Act and weaponizing administrative law to wrap themselves in red tape.
lawfaremedia.org
September 24, 2026 at 7:01 PM
Reed Shaw explains how new leadership at the CFTC, appointed after the Trump administration eliminated its independence, is disarming the agency and potentially preventing future meaningful oversight of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
NY Federal Court Won’t Shield Kalshi From State Gaming Regulators www.law.com/newyorklawjo...
NY Federal Court Won’t Shield Kalshi From State Gaming Regulators | Law.com
District Judge Analisa Torres found that the Commodity Exchange Act, a federal law providing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission with exclusive jurisdiction to regulate financial derivatives, doe...
www.law.com
July 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM
NY Federal Court Won’t Shield Kalshi From State Gaming Regulators www.law.com/newyorklawjo...
A new bill introduced in the Senate would ban prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket from accepting or listing transactions related to sports events and casino-style games.
Senators introduce bipartisan bill to ban sports betting on prediction markets
The new bill would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to ban prediction contracts related to sports events or casino-style games.
nbcnews.to
March 23, 2026 at 9:40 PM
A new bill introduced in the Senate would ban prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket from accepting or listing transactions related to sports events and casino-style games.
Commodity Exchange Act Section 6(c)(1) prohibits the misuse of material nonpublic information in derivative markets.
Since Polymarket declared itself a “futures exchange” instead of a gambling house, this proposal by Ackman is indeed very illegal!
Since Polymarket declared itself a “futures exchange” instead of a gambling house, this proposal by Ackman is indeed very illegal!
September 6, 2025 at 10:21 PM
Commodity Exchange Act Section 6(c)(1) prohibits the misuse of material nonpublic information in derivative markets.
Since Polymarket declared itself a “futures exchange” instead of a gambling house, this proposal by Ackman is indeed very illegal!
Since Polymarket declared itself a “futures exchange” instead of a gambling house, this proposal by Ackman is indeed very illegal!
🇺🇸 The Illinois state court has temporarily suspended sports betting licensing requirements for Kalshi contracts, ruling that these instruments fall under federal regulation as "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act
#crypto #blockchain #news
#crypto #blockchain #news
October 3, 2026 at 1:23 AM
🇺🇸 The Illinois state court has temporarily suspended sports betting licensing requirements for Kalshi contracts, ruling that these instruments fall under federal regulation as "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act
#crypto #blockchain #news
#crypto #blockchain #news
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is a proposed U.S. law designed to create a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and digital assets by dividing oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) & the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
It should have passed. 😠
It should have passed. 😠
US SENATE VOTES 50-49 AGAINST ADVANCING CLARITY ACT
September 15, 2026 at 8:22 PM
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is a proposed U.S. law designed to create a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and digital assets by dividing oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) & the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
It should have passed. 😠
It should have passed. 😠
Before the 2008 financial crisis, federal courts and regulators preempted states from stopping the spread of predatory mortgage lending.
I think one day we'll view judges and the CFTC using the Commodity Exchange Act to block states from regulating prediction markets as a similarly disastrous move.
I think one day we'll view judges and the CFTC using the Commodity Exchange Act to block states from regulating prediction markets as a similarly disastrous move.
Wow, a federal judge just ruled in favor of the CFTC, Kalshi, and Polymarket, temporarily barring the state of Minnesota from enforcing its prediction market statute until final decision on the merits is reached.
(h/t @seamushughes.bsky.social)
(h/t @seamushughes.bsky.social)
July 27, 2026 at 9:15 PM
Before the 2008 financial crisis, federal courts and regulators preempted states from stopping the spread of predatory mortgage lending.
I think one day we'll view judges and the CFTC using the Commodity Exchange Act to block states from regulating prediction markets as a similarly disastrous move.
I think one day we'll view judges and the CFTC using the Commodity Exchange Act to block states from regulating prediction markets as a similarly disastrous move.
The basis of the injunction is the Commodity Exchange Act gives exclusive jdx to the Commodities Futures Exchange Commission to regulate "swaps," and some of the things Kalshi does sound like swaps—agreements to pay or deliver based on the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event
July 27, 2026 at 9:08 PM
The basis of the injunction is the Commodity Exchange Act gives exclusive jdx to the Commodities Futures Exchange Commission to regulate "swaps," and some of the things Kalshi does sound like swaps—agreements to pay or deliver based on the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event
US District Judge Analisa Torres on July 7 denied Kalshi's bid to block New York from enforcing its gambling laws against the prediction markets platform, ruling the federal Commodity Exchange Act did not supersede the state’s gambling laws reut.rs/3SFUbfn
July 9, 2026 at 3:54 PM
US District Judge Analisa Torres on July 7 denied Kalshi's bid to block New York from enforcing its gambling laws against the prediction markets platform, ruling the federal Commodity Exchange Act did not supersede the state’s gambling laws reut.rs/3SFUbfn
This is absolutely necessary. Literally betting on war plans is a serious national security problem.
@democracydefendersfund.org:
"The timing of these investments raises serious concerns about whether the trades were executed utilizing nonpublic government information."
🦋 bsky.app/profile/norm...
@democracydefendersfund.org:
"The timing of these investments raises serious concerns about whether the trades were executed utilizing nonpublic government information."
🦋 bsky.app/profile/norm...
![Democracy Defenders Fund
April 10, 2026
David I. Miller
Director
Division of Enforcement
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
1155 21st Street, NW
Washington, DC 20581
Dear Mr. Miller,
Democracy Defenders Fund (DDF) respectfully urges your office to commence an investigation into potential prohibited transactions by officers and employees of the executive and congressional branches in violation of Sections 4c, 6, and 6c of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA)1 and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Rule 180.1.2 Recent media reports have identified a series of suspiciously timed trades in the futures markets, including “event contracts"3 sold over prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, that were tied to the occurrence of sensitive political and government events.4 These trades took favorable positions on geopolitical events, such as the U.S. invasion of Venezuela and war in Iran, mere minutes and hours before they came to pass.
The timing of these investments raises serious concerns about whether the trades were executed utilizing nonpublic government information. As you are aware, "[t]he mission of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is to promote the integrity, resilience, and vibrancy of the U.S. derivatives markets through sound regulation." It is imperative that you investigate these trades to both protect the integrity of the futures markets and deter insiders from abusing their positions of power for personal gain.
5](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:6e4kpwbhah6ri44psz2nrccb/bafkreibsx34baphxhgemizrtlfuwjjchr2wph6nbqnradjazujpdqvyi6i)
April 11, 2026 at 1:10 AM
This is absolutely necessary. Literally betting on war plans is a serious national security problem.
@democracydefendersfund.org:
"The timing of these investments raises serious concerns about whether the trades were executed utilizing nonpublic government information."
🦋 bsky.app/profile/norm...
@democracydefendersfund.org:
"The timing of these investments raises serious concerns about whether the trades were executed utilizing nonpublic government information."
🦋 bsky.app/profile/norm...
To Hegel, commodity exchange is merely a concrete manifestion of an abstract legal capacity to act - To Pashukanis, the abstract legal capacity to act takes shape only through commodity exchange
May 17, 2026 at 12:02 PM
To Hegel, commodity exchange is merely a concrete manifestion of an abstract legal capacity to act - To Pashukanis, the abstract legal capacity to act takes shape only through commodity exchange
we really do have a law for this
![A screenshot of 7 U.S. Code § 13–1 (aka the Onion Futures Act), which states:
(a) No contract for the sale of motion picture box office receipts (or any index, measure, value, or data related to such receipts) or onions for future delivery shall be made on or subject to the rules of any board of trade in the United States. The terms used in this section shall have the same meaning as when used in the Commodity Exchange Act [7 U.S.C. 1 et seq.].
(b) Any person who shall violate the provisions of this section shall be deemed guilty of a misdemeanor and upon conviction thereof be fined not more than $5,000.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2sz2y4hsulvzmnvumcj3givz/bafkreiag5digj6gmefd467zsx5sygyufw2ldhjf2rd5smsf4n3yazr4kje)
January 9, 2024 at 6:51 AM
we really do have a law for this
H.R.10505
To amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit political ...
SPONSOR: @raskin.house.gov
№ CO-SPONSORS: 3
STATUS: Introduced
LATEST ACTION: House floor - 2024-12-18 Referred to the House Committee on ...
#Democrats
Details at congress.gov
To amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit political ...
SPONSOR: @raskin.house.gov
№ CO-SPONSORS: 3
STATUS: Introduced
LATEST ACTION: House floor - 2024-12-18 Referred to the House Committee on ...
#Democrats
Details at congress.gov
December 20, 2024 at 7:00 PM
H.R.10505
To amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit political ...
SPONSOR: @raskin.house.gov
№ CO-SPONSORS: 3
STATUS: Introduced
LATEST ACTION: House floor - 2024-12-18 Referred to the House Committee on ...
#Democrats
Details at congress.gov
To amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit political ...
SPONSOR: @raskin.house.gov
№ CO-SPONSORS: 3
STATUS: Introduced
LATEST ACTION: House floor - 2024-12-18 Referred to the House Committee on ...
#Democrats
Details at congress.gov
Kalshi urges judge to block Iowa from regulating prediction market
Kalshi argues the Commodity Exchange Act gives exclusive jurisdiction to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to regulate the sort of prediction market exchange Kalshi operates.
www.courthousenews.com/kalshi-urges...
Kalshi argues the Commodity Exchange Act gives exclusive jurisdiction to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to regulate the sort of prediction market exchange Kalshi operates.
www.courthousenews.com/kalshi-urges...
Kalshi urges judge to block Iowa from regulating prediction market
Kalshi argues the Commodity Exchange Act gives exclusive jurisdiction to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to regulate the sort of prediction market exchange Kalshi operates.
www.courthousenews.com
August 8, 2026 at 12:26 AM
Kalshi urges judge to block Iowa from regulating prediction market
Kalshi argues the Commodity Exchange Act gives exclusive jurisdiction to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to regulate the sort of prediction market exchange Kalshi operates.
www.courthousenews.com/kalshi-urges...
Kalshi argues the Commodity Exchange Act gives exclusive jurisdiction to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to regulate the sort of prediction market exchange Kalshi operates.
www.courthousenews.com/kalshi-urges...
totally normal country
![7 U.S. Code § 13-1 - Violations, prohibition against dealings in motion picture box office receipts or onion futures; punishment
(a) No contract for the sale of motion picture box office receipts (or any index, measure, value, or data related to such receipts) or onions for future delivery shall be made on or subject to the rules of any board of trade in the United States. The terms used in this section shall have the same meaning as when used in the Commodity Exchange Act [7 U.S.C. 1 et seq.].
(b) Any person who shall violate the provisions of this section shall be deemed guilty of a misdemeanor and upon conviction thereof be fined not more than $5,000.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:hgsscl4xhvx2jg2keyvmxfi2/bafkreifof7acou6oyjygtfigpvnuhwn6eddrlfzrvw5ak7qan7difwkkxq)
January 9, 2026 at 1:05 PM
totally normal country
And while we're at it: it's a federal crime to trade in onion futures, per 7 U.S.C. § 13–1, which has my favorite title in the entire United States Code.
uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?h...
uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?h...
![§13–1. Violations, prohibition against dealings in motion picture box office receipts or onion futures; punishment
(a) No contract for the sale of motion picture box office receipts (or any index, measure, value, or data related to such receipts) or onions for future delivery shall be made on or subject to the rules of any board of trade in the United States. The terms used in this section shall have the same meaning as when used in the Commodity Exchange Act [7 U.S.C. 1 et seq.].
(b) Any person who shall violate the provisions of this section shall be deemed guilty of a misdemeanor and upon conviction thereof be fined not more than $5,000.
( Pub. L. 85–839, §1, Aug. 28, 1958, 72 Stat. 1013 ; Pub. L. 111–203, title VII, §721(e)(10), July 21, 2010, 124 Stat. 1672 .)](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wufsdxzvzx36d7wppganbvpw/bafkreigd7e37ozz6dx2agmpklepspasmhkc6d44z6pldyjdfjbvt4wqpny)
May 12, 2026 at 2:35 PM
And while we're at it: it's a federal crime to trade in onion futures, per 7 U.S.C. § 13–1, which has my favorite title in the entire United States Code.
uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?h...
uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?h...
“Congress did not take a wrecking ball to all sports gambling regulations built up over decades by federal, state, and tribal governments when it amended the (Commodity Exchange Act),” Judge Ryan Nelson wrote
story via @jimsmall.bsky.social
story via @jimsmall.bsky.social
9th Circuit sides with states in Kalshi gambling fight, potentially reviving Arizona's prosecution
9th Circuit ruling could revive the Arizona Kalshi case, finding sports bets aren’t protected as federal ‘swaps.’
azmirror.com
August 28, 2026 at 9:30 PM
“Congress did not take a wrecking ball to all sports gambling regulations built up over decades by federal, state, and tribal governments when it amended the (Commodity Exchange Act),” Judge Ryan Nelson wrote
story via @jimsmall.bsky.social
story via @jimsmall.bsky.social
Prediction market Kalshi told to stay out of Nevada as appeals court rules on the side of the state’s gaming regulators.
thenevadaindependent.com/article/fede...
thenevadaindependent.com/article/fede...
Federal appeals court allows Nevada to ban Kalshi and other prediction markets - The Nevada Independent
The 9th Circuit panel wrote it disagreed "with Kalshi's overly broad reading" of the Commodity Exchange Act allowing it to offer sports event contracts.
thenevadaindependent.com
August 28, 2026 at 6:50 PM
Prediction market Kalshi told to stay out of Nevada as appeals court rules on the side of the state’s gaming regulators.
thenevadaindependent.com/article/fede...
thenevadaindependent.com/article/fede...
The Commodity Exchange Act, which regulated futures contracts, was amended in 2010 under Dodd-Frank to ban markets on four things: illegal activity, terrorism, war and, most relevant to Kalshi, "gaming"
January 30, 2026 at 4:36 PM
The Commodity Exchange Act, which regulated futures contracts, was amended in 2010 under Dodd-Frank to ban markets on four things: illegal activity, terrorism, war and, most relevant to Kalshi, "gaming"