schelling coercion is compellence vs deterrence etc etc
October 5, 2026 at 12:16 AM
schelling coercion is compellence vs deterrence etc etc
Coercive 'Diplomacy'
Bully 'Diplomacy'
Compellence
Gunboat 'Diplomacy': Traditionally refers to displaying or threatening military or naval force to intimidate a weaker or rival nation into compliance.
Bully 'Diplomacy'
Compellence
Gunboat 'Diplomacy': Traditionally refers to displaying or threatening military or naval force to intimidate a weaker or rival nation into compliance.
October 8, 2026 at 7:43 PM
Coercive 'Diplomacy'
Bully 'Diplomacy'
Compellence
Gunboat 'Diplomacy': Traditionally refers to displaying or threatening military or naval force to intimidate a weaker or rival nation into compliance.
Bully 'Diplomacy'
Compellence
Gunboat 'Diplomacy': Traditionally refers to displaying or threatening military or naval force to intimidate a weaker or rival nation into compliance.
If you've never heard the term "compellence" before, it's a term mostly used in military strategy discussions.
"A form of coercion that attempts to get an actor or group of actors to change their behavior."
This thread argues for compellence, and is honest about what's necessary to achieve it.
"A form of coercion that attempts to get an actor or group of actors to change their behavior."
This thread argues for compellence, and is honest about what's necessary to achieve it.
This should be so obvious that it doesn’t need to be said, but given what kind of weekend it’s been on here, apparently it does:
If you don’t want old rapists running the world, in office, in the board room, making decisions for all of us
get comfortable with “ruining” young rapists’ lives
If you don’t want old rapists running the world, in office, in the board room, making decisions for all of us
get comfortable with “ruining” young rapists’ lives
October 5, 2026 at 6:41 AM
If you've never heard the term "compellence" before, it's a term mostly used in military strategy discussions.
"A form of coercion that attempts to get an actor or group of actors to change their behavior."
This thread argues for compellence, and is honest about what's necessary to achieve it.
"A form of coercion that attempts to get an actor or group of actors to change their behavior."
This thread argues for compellence, and is honest about what's necessary to achieve it.
Survival is one thing.
Compellence is much harder. Art Berman
Compellence is much harder. Art Berman
September 30, 2026 at 10:31 PM
Survival is one thing.
Compellence is much harder. Art Berman
Compellence is much harder. Art Berman
As a wise* man once said, there is no deterrence, only compellence.
*don’t pull on that thread
*don’t pull on that thread
September 23, 2026 at 9:31 AM
As a wise* man once said, there is no deterrence, only compellence.
*don’t pull on that thread
*don’t pull on that thread
You don’t often see Maslow’s Hammer presented in print. However, here it is by Ludovic Hood of the Hudson Institute.
Maximum Pressure failed for all of the reasons scholars of coercive diplomacy suggest compellence fails ( @washingtonpost.com)…
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Maximum Pressure failed for all of the reasons scholars of coercive diplomacy suggest compellence fails ( @washingtonpost.com)…
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | I was a U.S. diplomat for 20 years. Now I see how the Iran war could be won.
The best outcome for core U.S. interests is the collapse of the regime.
www.washingtonpost.com
August 25, 2026 at 10:17 PM
You don’t often see Maslow’s Hammer presented in print. However, here it is by Ludovic Hood of the Hudson Institute.
Maximum Pressure failed for all of the reasons scholars of coercive diplomacy suggest compellence fails ( @washingtonpost.com)…
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Maximum Pressure failed for all of the reasons scholars of coercive diplomacy suggest compellence fails ( @washingtonpost.com)…
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
“Fighting to win” shouldn’t have been the frame, but how does use of force advance deterrent or compellence objectives.
warontherocks.com/what-have-we...
warontherocks.com/what-have-we...
What Have We Learned from the 9/11 Wars? Not Nearly Enough
Editor’s Note: The following article draws on themes from the author’s forthcoming book titled US Counterterrorism Operations in Afghanistan: Jackpots,
warontherocks.com
August 17, 2026 at 10:14 PM
“Fighting to win” shouldn’t have been the frame, but how does use of force advance deterrent or compellence objectives.
warontherocks.com/what-have-we...
warontherocks.com/what-have-we...
“ .. it is also plausible that automated nuclear systems could instead be used to pursue de facto offensive and revisionist objectives via compellence or deterrence.” warontherocks.com/putting-arma...
Putting Armageddon on Autopilot: How Artificial Intelligence Could Make Nuclear Threats More Effective
Nine countries now possess nuclear weapons. Arms control agreements painstakingly built over decades have collapsed. Geopolitical competition is
warontherocks.com
August 14, 2026 at 4:30 PM
“ .. it is also plausible that automated nuclear systems could instead be used to pursue de facto offensive and revisionist objectives via compellence or deterrence.” warontherocks.com/putting-arma...
Iran and the Paradox of American Compellence, by #FletcherAlum Arian Sharifi.
www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
Iran and the Paradox of American Compellence
As Washington broadens its campaign from Iranian military and security targets to the country’s economic infrastructure, its strategy rests on a straightforward proposition: greater pain will fo
www.realcleardefense.com
August 12, 2026 at 5:18 PM
Iran and the Paradox of American Compellence, by #FletcherAlum Arian Sharifi.
www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
He and Herman Kahn really support my point that economists and physicists are not necessarily whom we should be asking about nukes & military compellence.
That whole abstraction & decontextualized thing they sometimes tend to share.
That whole abstraction & decontextualized thing they sometimes tend to share.
August 11, 2026 at 3:59 AM
He and Herman Kahn really support my point that economists and physicists are not necessarily whom we should be asking about nukes & military compellence.
That whole abstraction & decontextualized thing they sometimes tend to share.
That whole abstraction & decontextualized thing they sometimes tend to share.
US policy towards Iran has shifted from deterrence to compellence. The 2026 war shows the costs of that shift — and its failure to deliver. I explore what this means for Trump’s options in my new article for CEBRI-Journal, Brazil’s leading public policy journal. cebri.org/revista/en/a...
Why Deterrence and Compellence Failed Against Iran
War Reflects a Failure of Coercion?
cebri.org
August 10, 2026 at 5:09 PM
US policy towards Iran has shifted from deterrence to compellence. The 2026 war shows the costs of that shift — and its failure to deliver. I explore what this means for Trump’s options in my new article for CEBRI-Journal, Brazil’s leading public policy journal. cebri.org/revista/en/a...
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I warned y’all not to install Trump.
AND:
Iran wasn’t building nukes b/f USA-Israel attacks & war.
Iran mothballed nuclear weapons program in 2003.
Iran Deal/JCPOA in 2015.
Most likely: Iran stays latent/hedge nukes & uses Hormuz for compellence (as now).
IF Iran decides to go for
I warned y’all not to install Trump.
AND:
Iran wasn’t building nukes b/f USA-Israel attacks & war.
Iran mothballed nuclear weapons program in 2003.
Iran Deal/JCPOA in 2015.
Most likely: Iran stays latent/hedge nukes & uses Hormuz for compellence (as now).
IF Iran decides to go for
The lede of this story says Trump might be willing to walk away from Iran without a nuclear deal if it reopens Hormuz, which to me sounds like trading an Iranian nuclear weapon for recognizing Iranian sovereignty over the strait.
August 9, 2026 at 2:26 PM
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I warned y’all not to install Trump.
AND:
Iran wasn’t building nukes b/f USA-Israel attacks & war.
Iran mothballed nuclear weapons program in 2003.
Iran Deal/JCPOA in 2015.
Most likely: Iran stays latent/hedge nukes & uses Hormuz for compellence (as now).
IF Iran decides to go for
I warned y’all not to install Trump.
AND:
Iran wasn’t building nukes b/f USA-Israel attacks & war.
Iran mothballed nuclear weapons program in 2003.
Iran Deal/JCPOA in 2015.
Most likely: Iran stays latent/hedge nukes & uses Hormuz for compellence (as now).
IF Iran decides to go for
Fortunately nukes are not very good for compellence.
August 5, 2026 at 12:59 AM
Fortunately nukes are not very good for compellence.
Also enabling me to engage in nuclear compellence against the town code enforcement officer (fuck you Dave)
July 31, 2026 at 2:45 PM
Also enabling me to engage in nuclear compellence against the town code enforcement officer (fuck you Dave)
The only terms presented to Russia should be unconditional retreat to pre-2014 borders with reparations for damages and payouts to families who've lost loved ones.
That should be a minimum.
The west needs to learn compellence diplomacy. Read some Machiavelli or Schelling for C. sake
That should be a minimum.
The west needs to learn compellence diplomacy. Read some Machiavelli or Schelling for C. sake
February 19, 2025 at 6:21 PM
The only terms presented to Russia should be unconditional retreat to pre-2014 borders with reparations for damages and payouts to families who've lost loved ones.
That should be a minimum.
The west needs to learn compellence diplomacy. Read some Machiavelli or Schelling for C. sake
That should be a minimum.
The west needs to learn compellence diplomacy. Read some Machiavelli or Schelling for C. sake
I can't think of any case of successful "pure" compellence. Did we "compel" the removal of Soviet missiles with the quarantine and threats of escalation, or "negotiate" removal by putting the removal of US missiles from Turkey onto the table?
April 12, 2026 at 5:42 PM
I can't think of any case of successful "pure" compellence. Did we "compel" the removal of Soviet missiles with the quarantine and threats of escalation, or "negotiate" removal by putting the removal of US missiles from Turkey onto the table?
Following the basics of deterrence theory this is not deterrence, it's compellence, and even Schelling had doubts about compellence as a coercive strategy. But the point of the threat is not to answer a yes/no (will he or won't he) question. The goal is to manipulate risk at the margin (2)
April 7, 2026 at 4:43 PM
Following the basics of deterrence theory this is not deterrence, it's compellence, and even Schelling had doubts about compellence as a coercive strategy. But the point of the threat is not to answer a yes/no (will he or won't he) question. The goal is to manipulate risk at the margin (2)
OH! Speaking of deterrence and compellence, Stephen Schwartz' thread about the UKPM Letters of Last Resort yesterday yielded a gem in the replies that you might be interested in. I listened to it last night. it's darkly funny & deeply unsettling: ...1/2
youtu.be/PwY9th-vmNY?...
youtu.be/PwY9th-vmNY?...
BBC Radio 4 Saturday Drama: The Letter of Last Resort
youtu.be
July 6, 2024 at 4:01 PM
OH! Speaking of deterrence and compellence, Stephen Schwartz' thread about the UKPM Letters of Last Resort yesterday yielded a gem in the replies that you might be interested in. I listened to it last night. it's darkly funny & deeply unsettling: ...1/2
youtu.be/PwY9th-vmNY?...
youtu.be/PwY9th-vmNY?...
“It’s not deterrence. It’s such an obvious use of compellence that it shouldn’t even have to be stated as such, except to utter military novices (like the current SecDef) who choose to use flowery words instead of accurate descriptors of what’s just happened.” open.substack.com/pub/almauron...
Hegseth Doesn't Understand Deterrence
His pet phrase "reestablishing deterrence" doesn't make sense either
open.substack.com
June 24, 2025 at 1:54 AM
“It’s not deterrence. It’s such an obvious use of compellence that it shouldn’t even have to be stated as such, except to utter military novices (like the current SecDef) who choose to use flowery words instead of accurate descriptors of what’s just happened.” open.substack.com/pub/almauron...
Just to note that the author doesn’t argue against compellence strikes, and states that she would hope that the Gulf states could be brought around to vocally supporting them as additional pressure on the Houthis, so I don’t think she’s far off from your position.
January 19, 2024 at 12:28 AM
Just to note that the author doesn’t argue against compellence strikes, and states that she would hope that the Gulf states could be brought around to vocally supporting them as additional pressure on the Houthis, so I don’t think she’s far off from your position.
The brutal difference here is that nobody cares if Ansarallah remains in power, this is just straight-up compellence. Ansarallah is betting that blowing up container ships will cement their northern tribal support, we’re betting strikes will cost them more than they gain and they’ll decide to stop.
January 17, 2024 at 3:59 PM
The brutal difference here is that nobody cares if Ansarallah remains in power, this is just straight-up compellence. Ansarallah is betting that blowing up container ships will cement their northern tribal support, we’re betting strikes will cost them more than they gain and they’ll decide to stop.
As I read her, she’s not opposed to the retaliatory strikes, and thinks the Gulf states should support them, but she’s rightly skeptical that any further military effort to dislodge the Houthis could succeed, and compellence needs to be linked to regional negotiations: “diplomacy plus deterrence.”
Don’t Bomb the Houthis
Careful diplomacy can stop the attacks in the Red Sea.
www.foreignaffairs.com
January 13, 2024 at 4:37 PM
As I read her, she’s not opposed to the retaliatory strikes, and thinks the Gulf states should support them, but she’s rightly skeptical that any further military effort to dislodge the Houthis could succeed, and compellence needs to be linked to regional negotiations: “diplomacy plus deterrence.”
"It could have been that Russia never planned to use such weapons, and that this increase in nuclear rhetoric by the Kremlin—including its “dirty bomb” disinformation campaign—was just an act of compellence strategy used by Putin." (3/n)
March 16, 2026 at 4:30 PM
"It could have been that Russia never planned to use such weapons, and that this increase in nuclear rhetoric by the Kremlin—including its “dirty bomb” disinformation campaign—was just an act of compellence strategy used by Putin." (3/n)
...and then there's this...
Should be a really big beautiful war. And that talk show host Rudolph Hess we have is the rifht man for the job. Trust him 2000%. 🙄
Should be a really big beautiful war. And that talk show host Rudolph Hess we have is the rifht man for the job. Trust him 2000%. 🙄
The Essequibo Pressure Cooker: Runaway Nationalism and Maduro’s Compellence Strategy
Since CSIS last analyzed military activity within and nearby the disputed Essequibo territory, the Venezulean armed forces have continued to increase their presence, while rhetoric from Caracas is lea...
www.csis.org
January 5, 2026 at 9:09 PM
...and then there's this...
Should be a really big beautiful war. And that talk show host Rudolph Hess we have is the rifht man for the job. Trust him 2000%. 🙄
Should be a really big beautiful war. And that talk show host Rudolph Hess we have is the rifht man for the job. Trust him 2000%. 🙄