#debtdeflation
LightNews LightNews
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
#debtdeflation
Jon Brooks @ @jonbrooks 1h HOME PRICES ARE ABOUT TO GO NEGATIVE. Chart of Freddie Mac USA House Price Index YoY over the last 50years
September 27, 2026 at 11:52 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
#debtdeflation
junkbondinvestor @ @junkbondinvest 3h CCC spreads nearly 1,000bps vs. a February low of 563bps. Most of the stress is sitting in one rating bucket. CCC Average OAS
September 27, 2026 at 10:15 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
Pimco Faces AAA Debt Loss After 85% Writedown of Office Complex
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-25/pimco-faces-35-million-loss-on-philadelphia-offices

At some point someone has to take the loss. Good example.
#debtdeflation
September 27, 2026 at 11:07 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
#debtdeflation
Private Credit Default Rates to Reach 8%, Morgan Stanley Says Bloomberg
March 17, 2026 at 8:28 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
@GhostOnTheHalfShell Companies who have to pay their debt are struggling to make their payments. New credit for companies with a bad rating is much more costly than at the start of 2026.

This is devolping into the debt spiral I'm speaking about with the #debtdeflation.

Right now, there is […]
Original post on norden.social
norden.social
September 27, 2026 at 10:27 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
Two decades? Mmh. What happened back then?
#debtdeflation
Nick Gerli®@ @nickgerli1 Sep 24 U.S. real estate investment has collapsed by 50% over the last four years. The reason? It's now more profitable to sit on your couch and buy a 10-year government bond than to buy an investment property. 10-year yields are now 5.1%. While the single-family cap rate for rentals is 4.8%. For the first time in nearly two decades, buying real estate for cash flow has a negative opportunity cost v buying government bonds. And as a result, the number of people buying investment properties has plummeted by 50% over the last four years. This is having a massive price impact on certain markets. Track Cap Rates for your area at reventure.app/map. + chart showing this.
September 27, 2026 at 11:28 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
First it will hit the regional banks.
#debtdeflation
jimmy dean @ @)jimmydean197 Sep 25 SS Regional banks took on the bulk of the commercial debt in this housing run and it is important to understand a massive part of this was multifamily. In an increasing volume these loans are defaulting and the builders are turning the assets back to the bank. The numbers may have worked in 2020 when rents were taking off and rates were low, but to refi now at well over 7% while rents are dropping and vacancies are increasing no longer comes close to cash flowing. S&P Regional Banking ETF SPDR (KRE) Regionals banks are entering technical correction (-10%)
September 27, 2026 at 11:23 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
#debtdeflation
e Roberto Rios @ 04 The 4 largest Japanese Life Insurers now have racked up an estimated $96 - billion in unrealized losses on their bond holdings Across the entire life insurance industry, there's over $200B in paper losses and counting NOTHING STOPS THE BULLET TRAIN + chart showing this
September 25, 2026 at 12:47 AM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
US 10-year bond at 5.13% and 30-year bond at 5.24%. Highest rates since 2004. It's just a matter of time before we're seeing the next RE crisis if rates stay this high or keep going higher. AI capex build out gets more costly, too.
#debtdeflation
September 23, 2026 at 8:36 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
#debtdeflation
Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA 1h Outside of tech, investment spending in the US is contracting. + Chart
May 10, 2026 at 7:10 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
'Americans are defaulting on their debts at near-historic rates, a collision between long-term structural strains and more contemporary financial pressures that some believe could shake the entire economy.'
https://www.newsweek.com/millions-americans-defaulting-on-loans-11090052

#debtdeflation
December 3, 2025 at 10:17 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
#debtdeflation
Lance Lambert @ Lennar is seeing a mild decline in construction costs Lennar co-CEO Jon Jaffe: “Direct construction costs in the fourth quarter decreased by approximately -2% from Q3 [2025] and -5% year-over-year. This downward trend will continue as we move into the first quarter of 2026.”
December 21, 2025 at 4:10 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
And another reason. Commercial real estate collapse ongoing. Just crazy numbers. At some point balance sheets have to take the L.
#debtdeflation
Nightingale Associates ® @FCNightingale 10h Two Tower Denver Place at 999 18th St. Denver, Colorado purchased at 76% discount from its price 19 years ago. Purchased for $47.5M. Sold for $200M in 2007. Previous owner recently invested $20M in the property. 930,000 SF Currently about half leased with 55 tenants.
February 3, 2026 at 1:08 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
#debtdeflation
Melody Wright @m3_melody May 2 The Freddie Mac House Price Index just printed its lowest month-over-month increase (Feb to March) non-seasonally adjusted since 2011 Seasonally adjusted it went negative Feb to Mar for the first time since 2011 Since 1975 the series has been negative Feb to Mar only 7 times The FMHPI® provides a measure of typical price inflation for houses within the United States. Values are calculated monthly and released at the end of the following month. For example, the FMHPI for March is published in late April. Seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted series are available at three levels of geographical aggregation: + Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) « State «+ National All series begin in January 1975. The national index is defined as a weighted average of the 50 states and Washington, D.C., indices. The FMHP! is based on an ever-expanding database of loans purchased by either Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae.
May 4, 2026 at 6:38 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
Yes, of course, but this will bring other problems but someone has to give.
#debtdeflation
Nick Gerli @ @nickgerli1 K Home sales just dropped to the lowest level since 2009. Down 35% from pandemic peak, and by 25% from pre-pandemic norms. This was the 2nd-worst February reading in the last 30 years. Traditional news outlets tried to claim there was a "recovery" in demand in February 2026. But that's obviously false. Rather - buyers are on their biggest strike in U.S. history. The solution to bring them back? Lower prices.
March 11, 2026 at 8:02 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
Well, well, well..
#debtdeflation
Activist investor Boaz Weinstein warned on Tuesday about “the wheels coming off” in private credit, which is reeling from worries about overspending on artificial intelligence, exposure to software investments threatened by Al and lending standards. A UBS Group AG report published on the same day said that private credit could see default rates surge as high as 15%. And Money manager Danny Moses, made famous in The Big Short, said private credit and private equity firms’ push into retail products reminds him of the years preceding the subprime mortgage crisis.
February 26, 2026 at 2:33 AM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
Bank of America’s Unrealized Bond Losses Could Top $90 Billion on Surging Yields
https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-of-america-stock-bond-losses-edae54c9

At some point someone has to take the loss.

#debtdeflation
September 19, 2026 at 1:09 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
A little billion here, a little billion there..
#debtdeflation
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/barclays-atlas-among-firms-exposed-to-collapsed-uk-lender-mfs
« Barclays Plc and Atlas SP Partners helped arrange more than £2 billion of loans to a UK mortgage-finance company that has unraveled amid allegations of financial irregularities. « The company, Market Financial Solutions Ltd., collapsed into a UK form of insolvency with the judge citing accusations of fraud and double-pledging of assets. « Other lenders, including Jefferies Financial Group Inc., Banco Santander SA, Wells Fargo & Co., and Castlelake LP, are also involved, with exposures ranging from £100 million to £600 million.
February 26, 2026 at 7:53 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
Worth a read. Good example for what is happening as backround noise in the US economy. There's still a lot of cash incoming from the government to keep many alive but behind those deficits something scary is waiting to wake up..

#debtdeflation
Hedgie ® @HedgieMarkets 2h America's Car-Mart, one of the oldest Buy Here Pay Here dealers in the country, is on the verge of collapse. Inventory down 52%. Car sales down 27%. 42 of 136 locations closed. Management is exploring a full wind-down, possibly through bankruptcy. This is a company that survived the 2008 crisis and COVID. It didn't survive what came after. Let me explain what happened here. Car-Mart sells used cars to people with bad credit and finances the loans itself. Starting in 2022, it bundled those loans into bonds and sold them to Wall Street investors, using the cash to make more loans. That worked until interest rates went up and Car-Mart's customers, who were already stretched, started missing payments. The bond contracts required incoming cash to go to bondholders first, which meant Car-Mart couldn't buy more cars or write new loans. The business model needs constant volume to survive, and when volume dropped, it choked. | covered Tricolor Holdings collapsing last September with fraud allegations, and BHPH loan balances being up 200% since 2018. Car-Mart is the next one. Half its loans needed modifications to keep default numbers from looking worse, which is the same "extend and pretend" mechanic the Philly Fed described in broader auto lending. The people who bought those bundled car loan bonds are institutional investors. If you own a bond fund or a pension, some of this paper might be in your portfolio. Car-Mart went from a converted fast food restaurant in Arkansas to a $700 million implosion because cheap money made the model work and expensive money broke it.
July 22, 2026 at 8:10 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
Damn, old school Goldbug Marc Faber und ich stimmen überein. Sollte ich mir Sorgen machen und lieber in den Chor der Inflationisten einstimmen? 🙃
#debtdeflation
MARC FABER | A historic deflationary swoosh down is my base case! Metals and Miners 21.100 Abonnenten
September 17, 2026 at 8:07 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
Let's raise interest rates into this RE market and hope for the best.
#debtdeflation
Nick Gerli @ @nickgerli1 7h A Major housing deflation is taking place in the homebuilding sector. Lennar, the 2nd largest builder in America, has now cut net prices 30% from the pandemic peak. Dropping from $511,000 in 2022 to $359,000 in Q3 2026. Lennar is cutting prices so much that their current ASP on new orders is below pre-pandemic levels. They're achieving this through outright price cuts, mortgage rate buydowns, and smaller floor plans. Ultimately, great news for buyers. Bad news if you're a re-seller in a market where Lennar operates.
September 18, 2026 at 12:01 AM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
This can't go on forever. US RE prices have to fall substantially over the next years.
#debtdeflation
The typical household can no longer buy the typical home Income required for housing costs to stay at 30% of earnings, vs actual median household income $38k short to buy a house Source: Atlanta Fed, Home Ownership Affordability Monitor. Qualifying income assumes housing costs at 30% of income.
September 16, 2026 at 1:53 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
Core inflation remains low but I think Warsh will raise interest rates next week. In the broader picture higher oil prices will keep up inflation in the short term but we gonna see core inflation going further down.
#debtdeflation
TonylsHere4You @ I didn't believe it when | first saw it reported but it does look like Core CPI YoY set a new cycle low. This is really going to whip the deflation crazies into a frenzy. + chart
September 11, 2026 at 4:30 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
Sure, one part of this might be 'crowding out'. The other part: The next downturn, recession and then a big fucking crash isn't far away. Maybe not this year but it's coming.
#debtdeflation
Private construction relative to Dec. 2023 $50 billion Chart Data center +50 billion All other private construction spending: - 120 billion since 2024 Note: Seasonally adjusted, annual rate Source: Commerce Dept.
September 6, 2026 at 10:57 PM
wackjackle.norden.social.ap.brid.gy
Yes, I agree.
#debtdeflation
Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter Aug 10 Credit markets are flashing the first real doubt about the AI trade. Investment-grade spreads on the big hyperscalers have jumped since June, and high-yield spreads on the data-center and neocloud builders have turned up with them. Credit almost always cracks before stocks do, the way bond spreads widened for months in 1873 before the panic ever hit the newspapers. Today the S&P 500 sits at a record while the bond market demands more to fund the same build. When those two disagree, credit is the one that tends to be right, and the equity record is what gets revised.
August 11, 2026 at 1:44 PM