we've derisked a lot of the worst outcomes. not that we're in a good place, but
September 23, 2026 at 4:49 AM
we've derisked a lot of the worst outcomes. not that we're in a good place, but
in the event that they are incentivized to take larger leaps than can be meaningfully derisked, that is also bad, but the main thing making it hard to derisk existing deployments is that 1) they push nutty totalitarian compute restriction regs, not ordinary regs, and 2) safety staff are nuts.
September 9, 2026 at 7:05 PM
in the event that they are incentivized to take larger leaps than can be meaningfully derisked, that is also bad, but the main thing making it hard to derisk existing deployments is that 1) they push nutty totalitarian compute restriction regs, not ordinary regs, and 2) safety staff are nuts.
My article in @ripejournal.bsky.social now has an issue number! 🥳
It shows how derisked decarbonization leads governments to build state capacity where transitions create bankable growth opportunities while leaving other crucial sectors (forestry, mining) behind
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
It shows how derisked decarbonization leads governments to build state capacity where transitions create bankable growth opportunities while leaving other crucial sectors (forestry, mining) behind
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The limits to derisked decarbonization: state capacity unevenness in domestic green transition strategies
With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, governments around the world committed to developing national plans to reduce emissions and limit average global temperatures to below 2 °C above p...
www.tandfonline.com
December 9, 2025 at 9:18 PM
My article in @ripejournal.bsky.social now has an issue number! 🥳
It shows how derisked decarbonization leads governments to build state capacity where transitions create bankable growth opportunities while leaving other crucial sectors (forestry, mining) behind
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
It shows how derisked decarbonization leads governments to build state capacity where transitions create bankable growth opportunities while leaving other crucial sectors (forestry, mining) behind
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
I can't think of anything about living on Mars that can be derisked uniquely by the Lunar south pole (as opposed to any other random location on the Moon).
September 25, 2026 at 3:32 PM
I can't think of anything about living on Mars that can be derisked uniquely by the Lunar south pole (as opposed to any other random location on the Moon).
Best part is that the GOP has absolutely proven its viability. It’s rare to find a strategy with this much juice that’s been completely derisked on someone else’s dime.
The next Democratic president has to “flood the zone” with so much progressive and socialist shit that the child molesting right and the fake news media don’t have the bandwidth to focus and complain about any one thing.
September 12, 2026 at 7:48 PM
Best part is that the GOP has absolutely proven its viability. It’s rare to find a strategy with this much juice that’s been completely derisked on someone else’s dime.
It’s not high risk when it has been derisked by preliminary data.
It’s not high risk when all the reviewers agree it needs a fundable score. If it is obvious, it isn’t risky.
It’s not high risk when all the reviewers agree it needs a fundable score. If it is obvious, it isn’t risky.
high-risk work in recent years, through many different programs.
What are your favorite examples of how this has paid off?
/end
What are your favorite examples of how this has paid off?
/end
April 10, 2025 at 12:35 AM
It’s not high risk when it has been derisked by preliminary data.
It’s not high risk when all the reviewers agree it needs a fundable score. If it is obvious, it isn’t risky.
It’s not high risk when all the reviewers agree it needs a fundable score. If it is obvious, it isn’t risky.
DESPERATELY needed, the number of completely above the board derisked normie events that only exist on facebook or insta....god
June 19, 2026 at 11:05 PM
DESPERATELY needed, the number of completely above the board derisked normie events that only exist on facebook or insta....god
What does de-risked decarbonization mean for state capacity across sectors?
I am THRILLED that this article is now out in @ripejournal.bsky.social! 🔓
Current climate finance regimes lock in lopsided transitions - states need resources for unbankable transitions.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
I am THRILLED that this article is now out in @ripejournal.bsky.social! 🔓
Current climate finance regimes lock in lopsided transitions - states need resources for unbankable transitions.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The limits to derisked decarbonization: state capacity unevenness in domestic green transition strategies
With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, governments around the world committed to developing national plans to reduce emissions and limit average global temperatures to below 2 °C above p...
www.tandfonline.com
June 4, 2025 at 1:51 PM
What does de-risked decarbonization mean for state capacity across sectors?
I am THRILLED that this article is now out in @ripejournal.bsky.social! 🔓
Current climate finance regimes lock in lopsided transitions - states need resources for unbankable transitions.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
I am THRILLED that this article is now out in @ripejournal.bsky.social! 🔓
Current climate finance regimes lock in lopsided transitions - states need resources for unbankable transitions.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Well was it the right move?
Many who believe the market only goes up said I was wrong.
Now I’ve derisked.
Made money.
Lowered averages.
More secure portfolio to borrow against.
Used lots to trim.
Gained $800 in free dividends in 3 weeks
SOLD S&P 500 at the top
BOUGHT KO at the bottom
Many who believe the market only goes up said I was wrong.
Now I’ve derisked.
Made money.
Lowered averages.
More secure portfolio to borrow against.
Used lots to trim.
Gained $800 in free dividends in 3 weeks
SOLD S&P 500 at the top
BOUGHT KO at the bottom
September 8, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Well was it the right move?
Many who believe the market only goes up said I was wrong.
Now I’ve derisked.
Made money.
Lowered averages.
More secure portfolio to borrow against.
Used lots to trim.
Gained $800 in free dividends in 3 weeks
SOLD S&P 500 at the top
BOUGHT KO at the bottom
Many who believe the market only goes up said I was wrong.
Now I’ve derisked.
Made money.
Lowered averages.
More secure portfolio to borrow against.
Used lots to trim.
Gained $800 in free dividends in 3 weeks
SOLD S&P 500 at the top
BOUGHT KO at the bottom
I’ve literally sat on national funding panels with head in hands as other palaeontologists on the panel push modelling proposals above excellent field-based proposals because fieldwork is “risky”, even when it has been as derisked as much possible & significant discoveries guaranteed. Depressing.
August 12, 2026 at 8:30 PM
I’ve literally sat on national funding panels with head in hands as other palaeontologists on the panel push modelling proposals above excellent field-based proposals because fieldwork is “risky”, even when it has been as derisked as much possible & significant discoveries guaranteed. Depressing.
it is a great scandal that OfS allows Education as an Asset Class to be derisked through the state's student loan system, with the complicity of public universities.
www.ft.com/content/6c54...
www.ft.com/content/6c54...
The UK’s biggest university is a private company
Supporters say franchised providers widen access to further education, but others doubt the real value of their ‘no frills’ courses
www.ft.com
July 22, 2026 at 7:25 AM
it is a great scandal that OfS allows Education as an Asset Class to be derisked through the state's student loan system, with the complicity of public universities.
www.ft.com/content/6c54...
www.ft.com/content/6c54...
New paper in @ripejournal.bsky.social: What if state capacity isn’t hollowed out by derisking but used to signal feasibility to investors?
My research suggests states build capacity for bankable policies. The problem: where $$$ doesn’t flow, capacity won't grow.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
My research suggests states build capacity for bankable policies. The problem: where $$$ doesn’t flow, capacity won't grow.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
The limits to derisked decarbonization: state capacity unevenness in domestic green transition strategies
With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, governments around the world committed to developing national plans to reduce emissions and limit average global temperatures to below 2 °C above p...
www.tandfonline.com
June 18, 2025 at 12:35 PM
New paper in @ripejournal.bsky.social: What if state capacity isn’t hollowed out by derisking but used to signal feasibility to investors?
My research suggests states build capacity for bankable policies. The problem: where $$$ doesn’t flow, capacity won't grow.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
My research suggests states build capacity for bankable policies. The problem: where $$$ doesn’t flow, capacity won't grow.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
This is a hobbyhorse of mine. A NYPA nuclear buildout would be another of countless reasons to fight for generous + usable tax credits. NYPA can monetize them via elective pay!
(Contra those juxtaposing tax credits and public power or denying that public projects can be derisked.)
(Contra those juxtaposing tax credits and public power or denying that public projects can be derisked.)
June 23, 2025 at 3:35 PM
This is a hobbyhorse of mine. A NYPA nuclear buildout would be another of countless reasons to fight for generous + usable tax credits. NYPA can monetize them via elective pay!
(Contra those juxtaposing tax credits and public power or denying that public projects can be derisked.)
(Contra those juxtaposing tax credits and public power or denying that public projects can be derisked.)
every single one of these proposed cuts hits green measures for households, not derisked capital
March 7, 2025 at 8:43 AM
every single one of these proposed cuts hits green measures for households, not derisked capital
That's partly due to the tendency towards secrecy that's swept through the industry, and also because biotech investors are increasingly focused on backing startups with clinically-derisked assets instead of funding ones with high risk and highly novel science.
September 22, 2026 at 2:16 PM
That's partly due to the tendency towards secrecy that's swept through the industry, and also because biotech investors are increasingly focused on backing startups with clinically-derisked assets instead of funding ones with high risk and highly novel science.
It's the same thing as the EU just said more directly, though frankly I'd have expected it to be the opposite.
Don't start disputes until derisked and willing to take the fight, unless forced by the US.
Don't start disputes until derisked and willing to take the fight, unless forced by the US.
January 22, 2026 at 10:49 AM
It's the same thing as the EU just said more directly, though frankly I'd have expected it to be the opposite.
Don't start disputes until derisked and willing to take the fight, unless forced by the US.
Don't start disputes until derisked and willing to take the fight, unless forced by the US.
Pushed by the ECB to create a profitable secondary market for NPLs, with hedge fund investments derisked by the Greek state and a legal re-coding that gave funds credit enforcement, the financial press still “wonders” why auctioned houses end up with investors & do not solve the housing problem. 👏
February 7, 2026 at 10:29 AM
Pushed by the ECB to create a profitable secondary market for NPLs, with hedge fund investments derisked by the Greek state and a legal re-coding that gave funds credit enforcement, the financial press still “wonders” why auctioned houses end up with investors & do not solve the housing problem. 👏
A lot of people think of big pharma as where the drugs are developed, where the innovation happens, but it's actually in small biotechs where the "sausage" is made. Big pharma is disincentivised to do the early steps, and instead it's better to buy derisked assets and put them through their funnel.
April 9, 2026 at 8:59 AM
A lot of people think of big pharma as where the drugs are developed, where the innovation happens, but it's actually in small biotechs where the "sausage" is made. Big pharma is disincentivised to do the early steps, and instead it's better to buy derisked assets and put them through their funnel.
it’s not that they take an ownership stake as part of the program it’s that they have the first crack when they go to raise and essentially have the benefit of a depth of diligence they would otherwise never get
so they get a first look in a highly derisked way
so they get a first look in a highly derisked way
September 22, 2026 at 5:46 PM
it’s not that they take an ownership stake as part of the program it’s that they have the first crack when they go to raise and essentially have the benefit of a depth of diligence they would otherwise never get
so they get a first look in a highly derisked way
so they get a first look in a highly derisked way
you could say, this is Dimon again forcing/guiding Trump's hand, as he did on Wednesday with tariffs, or you could say, well, the Fed has derisked US Treasuries before, why not now?
April 11, 2025 at 4:24 PM
you could say, this is Dimon again forcing/guiding Trump's hand, as he did on Wednesday with tariffs, or you could say, well, the Fed has derisked US Treasuries before, why not now?
This is the most comprehensive treatment I've seen yet comparing geothermal and shale fracking head to head. The specific policy prescriptions are super interesting (esp the market-making value of transmission) and really cool ideas in the insurance space.
Must read 🔌💡 ⚒️ 🧪
Must read 🔌💡 ⚒️ 🧪
May 6, 2025 at 4:35 PM
This is the most comprehensive treatment I've seen yet comparing geothermal and shale fracking head to head. The specific policy prescriptions are super interesting (esp the market-making value of transmission) and really cool ideas in the insurance space.
Must read 🔌💡 ⚒️ 🧪
Must read 🔌💡 ⚒️ 🧪
Policies we can attribute to a mistaken focus on financialization: bans on short-term rentals, limitations on derisked mortgages or other incentives for home purchases, second-home bans, foreign buyer bans, bedroom taxes.
None of these will get you close to solving shortages.
None of these will get you close to solving shortages.
March 30, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Policies we can attribute to a mistaken focus on financialization: bans on short-term rentals, limitations on derisked mortgages or other incentives for home purchases, second-home bans, foreign buyer bans, bedroom taxes.
None of these will get you close to solving shortages.
None of these will get you close to solving shortages.
Also dont forget about their access to shadow banking. Aka if musk gets essentially a margin loan but its syndicated by private credit shops, then he’d probably view himself as derisked. Im not saying thats a full proof plan, just saying hes dumb enough to think something like that is
February 13, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Also dont forget about their access to shadow banking. Aka if musk gets essentially a margin loan but its syndicated by private credit shops, then he’d probably view himself as derisked. Im not saying thats a full proof plan, just saying hes dumb enough to think something like that is
the Feds & Province & Pembina & Indigenous are partnered
in the pipeline
so, derisked as Carney calls it when he's not talking catalyzing.
good for the shareholders says Carney.
so Canadians will pay.
no Canada Health act.
this is what you get when you elect a banker, the 1%
in the pipeline
so, derisked as Carney calls it when he's not talking catalyzing.
good for the shareholders says Carney.
so Canadians will pay.
no Canada Health act.
this is what you get when you elect a banker, the 1%
July 3, 2026 at 1:12 AM
the Feds & Province & Pembina & Indigenous are partnered
in the pipeline
so, derisked as Carney calls it when he's not talking catalyzing.
good for the shareholders says Carney.
so Canadians will pay.
no Canada Health act.
this is what you get when you elect a banker, the 1%
in the pipeline
so, derisked as Carney calls it when he's not talking catalyzing.
good for the shareholders says Carney.
so Canadians will pay.
no Canada Health act.
this is what you get when you elect a banker, the 1%