Universal local #early-warningsignals #EWS may fundamentally not exist.
This preprint shows mathematically how non-identifiability, observability barriers, and essential spectrum impose intrinsic limits on local operator-based diagnostics.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno... 🖖
This preprint shows mathematically how non-identifiability, observability barriers, and essential spectrum impose intrinsic limits on local operator-based diagnostics.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno... 🖖
doi.org
May 18, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Universal local #early-warningsignals #EWS may fundamentally not exist.
This preprint shows mathematically how non-identifiability, observability barriers, and essential spectrum impose intrinsic limits on local operator-based diagnostics.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno... 🖖
This preprint shows mathematically how non-identifiability, observability barriers, and essential spectrum impose intrinsic limits on local operator-based diagnostics.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno... 🖖
Perhaps #early-warningSignals #EWS are not intrinsic properties of critical transitions, but projections of operator-theoretic instability through observation geometry.
Then many EWS fail not because of the dynamics, but because of the observer.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno... 🖖
Then many EWS fail not because of the dynamics, but because of the observer.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno... 🖖
Projection-Dependent Detectability of Critical Transitions: An Operator-Theoretic Framework
Dieses Manuskript entwickelt einen operator-theoretischen Rahmen zur Analyse der Detektierbarkeit kritischer Übergänge in komplexen dynamischen Systemen. Im Zentrum steht die These, dass klassische Ea...
doi.org
May 11, 2026 at 7:59 AM
Perhaps #early-warningSignals #EWS are not intrinsic properties of critical transitions, but projections of operator-theoretic instability through observation geometry.
Then many EWS fail not because of the dynamics, but because of the observer.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno... 🖖
Then many EWS fail not because of the dynamics, but because of the observer.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno... 🖖
Why do #early-warningsignals fail despite genuine critical slowing down?
The new #ORCI framework argues: criticality is spectral, detectability is geometric. False negatives may emerge from observational blindness rather than absence of criticality.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖
The new #ORCI framework argues: criticality is spectral, detectability is geometric. False negatives may emerge from observational blindness rather than absence of criticality.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖
Observer-Relative Critical Information: A Covariant Observability Framework for False Negatives Near Critical Transitions
This manuscript introduces Observer-Relative Critical Information (ORCI), a stochastic observability framework for understanding false negatives in early-warning systems near critical transitions. The...
doi.org
May 14, 2026 at 3:51 AM
Why do #early-warningsignals fail despite genuine critical slowing down?
The new #ORCI framework argues: criticality is spectral, detectability is geometric. False negatives may emerge from observational blindness rather than absence of criticality.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖
The new #ORCI framework argues: criticality is spectral, detectability is geometric. False negatives may emerge from observational blindness rather than absence of criticality.
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
#ComplexSystems #EWS 🖖