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EFTA01180844 | EFTA01180846 funding—have been managed with the ECB's unlimited funding to periphery banks. [5] The 103k rise in private sector jobs and 96k nonfarm jobs were lower than consensus expectations of 142k and 130k, respectively. The report also included downward revisions to prior months and was especially disappointing in light of yesterday's ADP private sector employment report and the ISM non-manufacturing survey. The ADP employment report showed private sector job gains of 203k in August, much stronger than consensus expectations of 140k. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose from 52.6 in July to 53.7 in August (Consensus: 52.5). Particularly encouraging was the 4.5 point gain in the employment index (to 53.8). [6] The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed actively seeking employment as a percentage of the labor force. An unemployed person who stops actively seeking employment is no longer counted as part of the labor force and thus is no longer included in the unemployment rate calculation. For this reason, the unemployment rate can fall for the "wrong" reason, as opposed to the "right" of an unemployed person becoming employed. If the participation rate (share of the population participating in the labor force) had stayed at the July rate of 63.7% in August instead of declining to 63.5%, the unemployment rate would have actually increased to 8.4% instead of declining 0.2pp to 8.1%. [7] Service-providing jobs remained stable and the weakness in the headline payroll number was largely concentrated in manufacturing jobs, which is known to be highly correlated with the global manufacturing cycle. Comments from the Beige Book prepared for the September FOMC meeting support the pullback in demand from Europe, too. In particular, the Chicago Fed reported that "Exports to Canada and Mexico continued to increase, but exporters noted a decline in demand from Europe and China." This observation is quite important because the confidence boost from the recent ECB policy shift should help stabilizing the global manufacturing cycle in the coming months and the US labor market along with it. Acronyms: ADP — Automatic Data Processing BLS - Bureau of Labor Statistics ECB — European Central Bank EFSF — European Financial Stability Facility ESM — European Stability Mechanism FOMC — Federal Open Market Committee IMF — International Monetary Fund ISM - Institute for Supply Management LTROs — Long-Term Refinancing Operations OMT- Outright Monetary Transactions QE — Quantitative Easing SMP - Securities Markets Program IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: JPAlorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates do not provide tax advice. 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In Singapore, this materialis distributed byJPMCB Singapore branch except to recipients having an account at JPMCB Singapore branch and where this material relates to a Collective Investment Scheme (other than privatefunds such as a private equity and hedgefunds) in which case it is distributed by J.P Morgan (SEA.) Limited (JPMSAPL). Both JPMCB Singapore branch and JPMSAPL are regulated by the Monetary Authority ofSingapore. This message has been preparedby personnel in the (Sales and Trading Departments)ofone or more affiliates ofJ.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and is not the product of..I.P. Morgans Research Department his not a research report and is not intended as such. This material isfor the general information ofour clients and is a "solicitation" EFTA01180846
May 12, 2026 at 6:00 PM