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EFTA01180916 | EFTA01180920 ** The German Ministry of Finance, as reported by Der Spiegel: in the first year following a Euro collapse, the German economy would shrink by up to 10 percent and the ranks of the unemployed would double. (June 2012) "LP. Morgan Securities: Regarding a break-up of the EMU, the investment bank's economists believe that "the economic and financial impact for all of Europe would be worse than Lehman, which was only the most intense credit crunch in modem financial history. EMU breakup would combine that credit event with the collapse of Europe's payments and settlement system due to contract uncertainty"; a break-up would be "the economic equivalent of mutually assured destruction". (December 2011) ** Nomura disagrees, at least in part: "A limited break-up can be managed...Our estimates suggest that the fall-out, in terms of financial losses for banks and sovereigns, can be managed in a scenario where 3-5 countries exit the Eurozone. In addition, such a limited break-up would leave hope that a certain degree of European cooperation can be preserved following break-up. Managing a limited break-up will require a) that it is done simultaneously, not sequentially, b) that comprehensive contingency plans are formed in advance, and c) that remaining core Eurozone countries move clearly toward fiscal union". (June 2012) ** Bernard Connolly at Connolly Insight agrees that a Eurozone breakup would probably create a financial crisis via the bursting of a very large European sovereign, bank and corporate credit bubble. However, he also believes that if the Eurozone stays on its current path, its austerity plus lending approach will have even more disastrous consequences, by making the bubble bigger and its inevitable bursting more explosive than a dismantling of the present Eurozone. [a] I spoke with Joanne Johnson in our Trust and Estate area about pit-nuptial agreements in the US. While half of marriages end in divorce and the average duration of a marriage is less than 20 years, children from wealthy families are often reluctant to press the issue of a pre-nup with a future spouse. in that case, Joanne recommends taking steps to avoid having separate assets morphing into marital assets (particularly in states like NY) through the use of trusts with trustee discretion on disbursements rather than automatic disbursements; by avoiding outright gifts; by having children not draw on trusts to fund marital expenses if they don't need to; by using "pot trusts" for multiple children instead of for specific children; and by structuring assets with other layers of entity protection. In some states, even these steps may not fully protect assets from being declared marital assets in divorce. Disclosure: I married for love without any money and was not asked to sign one. CBOE: Chicago Board Options Exchange; ECB: European Central Bank; MSCI: Morgan Stanley Capital International IRS Circular 230 Disclosure: JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates do not provide tax advice. Accordingly, any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, in connection with the promotion, marketing or recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with JPMorgan Chase & Co. ofany ofthe matters addressed herein orfor the purpose ofavoiding U.S. taxrelatedpenalties. Note that J.P. Morgan is not a licensed insurance provider. The material containedherein is intended as a generalmarket commentary. Opinions expressed herein are those ofMichael Cembalest and may differfrom those ofother J.P. Morgan employees and affiliates. This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan research and should not be treated as such. Further, the views expressed herein may differfrom that contained in J.P. 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