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EFTA01256148 | EFTA01256154 This email has been prepared solely for the information of the person to whom it has been delivered. It is not addressed to and should not be passed on to any other person and may not be used by them for any purpose whatsoever. The information contained herein may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose without prior written consent BlueGold Capital Management LLP. BlueGold Capital Management LLP is not hereby arranging or agreeing to arrange any transaction in any investment whatsoever. This email does not constitute or form part of any offer to issue or sell, or any solicitation or any offer to subscribe or purchase, any Investment nor shall It or the fact of Its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract therefore. No reliance may be placed for any purpose on the information and opinions contained in this email or their accuracy or completeness. Opinions and views expressed reflect only current views and may be changed without notice. Opinions expressed may differ from views expressed in other emails or documents. The information is not intended to provide and should not be relied upon for Investment, accounting, legal or tax advice. Recipients should consult their tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about the issues discussed herein. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document by any of BlueGold Capital Management LIP, its members, employees or affiliates and no liability is accepted by such persons for the accuracy or completeness of any such information or opinions, and nothing contained herein shat be relied upon as a promise or representation whether as to past or future performance. Past performance is not guarantee of future results. Page I 7 SDNY_GM_00077717 Confidential Treatment Requested by JPMorgan Chase JPM-SDNY-00000844 EFTA_00I88186 EFTA01256154
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EFTA01256148 | EFTA01256153 The World's Two Currency Zones Under Pressure. March 11.2010 Is Greece Illiquid or Insolvent? March 3, 2010 All Expanding UlliVaSe of EUR Sellers. February 24. 2010. A Basket-Band-Crawl (BBC) Regime for the Chinese &MB. February 18.2010 Bills for the `Free' Greek Lunch, February 11. 2010 Berlin vs. Athens: Why Berlin Blinked First. February 10. 2010 From Synchronous to Divergent Financial Policies, January 22, 2010 US Likely to Significantly Out-Perform Eumland in 2010. January 6, 2010 Ddja vu 2005: Fed Tightening. Strong USD. Higher Oil. December 18.2009 The Dollar to Smile against the EUR and the JPY. December 15.2009 The RMB could Potentially be Re-Floated next Spring. December 14.2009 Dubai (and the) World: Plenty of Shock but Little Awe, November 27, 2009 EM Central Banks' Gold-Buying Capacity, November 23, 2009 On the Link between the Dollar and Crate Oil. November 20. 2009 Inventory-Shipment Clock: Still on Script. November 9. 2009 A Historical Perspective on the USD's Resent Currency Status. October 29. 2009 Active versus Passive Foreign Resent Diversification. October 21. 2009 A Recover• in Global Trade could Push Oil to US$87. October 15, 2009. Return of the Global Savings Glut. Stephen Jen. August 27. 2009. Falling into the Gutter of the Dollar Smile. Stephen len. August 14, 2009. GBP/USD and USDJPY to Rise with Equities, Stephen Jen and Nod Patel. August 7. 2009. Further Deterioration in the US Consumer Confidence Indices: but Do They Matter? Stephen L Jen and Kieran Fontaine. July 31. 2009. Anticipating a Global Export Recovery. Stephen L Jen and Louis Colt. July 29, 2009. An Inventory-Shipment Clock. Stephen L Jen and Kieran Fontaine. July 17, 2009. DISCLAIMER This email has been prepared by BlueGold Capital Management LLP. BlueGold Capital Management LLP is authorised and regulated by the FSA in the UK. ihe distribution of this email may be restricted in certain jurisdictions and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. It is the responsibility of any person or persons reading this document to inform themselves of, and to observe, all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction including obtaining any governmental or other consent which may be required or observing any other formality which needs to be observed in that jurisdiction. Page I 6 SDNY_GM_00077716 Confidential Treatment Requested by JPMorgan Chase JPM-SDNY-00000843 EFTA_00188185 EFTA01256153 Epstein Web iOS app on the App Store.
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EFTA01256148 | EFTA01256152 bank reserve managers — who have US$9.O trillion in AUM - have not yet, as far as I can tell, materially altered their reserve management strategy, but may be on the verge of doing so. However, the large valuation losses sustained by central banks, as discussed above, will likely compel some central banks to at least curtail their diversification program and possibly even liquidate some of their exposures to the PIIGS bonds. Similarly, the real money accounts (insurance companies, mutual funds, and pension funds) which have an aggregate US$66 trillion in AUM may also be on the verge of de-rating the euro. My own guess is that, while the US real money accounts have already started de-rating the EUR, the European counterparts have by and large not commenced this process, as most of their overseas investments are still fully hedged back into the EUR. As it becomes clear to these portfolio managers that the structural problems in the EMU will not be resolved in the short-term, it is likely that these hedge ratios be reduced. In sum, there is potentially much larger EUR selling in the weeks ahead than what has already taken place so far. Bottom line. In this sell-off in EURUSD, central banks have sustained large valuation losses. In fact, the cumulative benefits of diversifying from the dollar to the euro in the past decade have dwindled significantly, and would completely evaporate if EURUSD trades down to 1.2150. In my view, it is likely that some central banks may be contemplating reducing their exposure to the EUR and European bonds. Real money accounts (e.g., pension funds, insurance companies) are likely to be going through the same EUR de-rating process. Recent Notes Central Banks' Losses from EURUSD this Year. USD300 Billion and Counting. May 6.2010 On the Eroding Resent Currency Status of the EUR. April 13.2010 Will Greece be tlx: Next Argentina? April 9.2010 sovereign Pension Funds: Approaching US$5.0 Trillion in AUM. March 31, 2010 SWFs after thc Financial Crisis: Bigger and Stronger. March 24. 2010 EMU's Challenges: Ex Ante and Ex Post. March 19.2010 Page I S SO NY_GM_00077715 Confidential Treatment Requested by JPMorgan Chase JPM-SDNY-00000842 EFTA_00188184 EFTA01256152
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EFTA01256148 | EFTA01256151 An expanding universe of EUR sellers. Back in February, I wrote a note' arguing that the fixation on the IMM/CFTC short positions in EURUSD was misplaced, and that there would likely be different and bigger waves of new sellers of euros that would push EURUSD lower. Short-squeezes, despite the large reported EUR-shorts, will be more modest and more temporary than many may think, because of the expanding universe of potential EUR sellers: There has been a curious amount ofattentionpaid to the IW/CF7C position in EURUSD, which shows a 'recordshort' ofaround USD 9 billion. Bothforeign exchange professionals and those outside the trade seem to be convinced that investors are very short the EUR. We believe this fixation on such a narrow measure ofmarket position is mis-leading. First, the IMM/CFTC data captures trades by CTAs, which have only USD70 billion under management, equivalent to around 0.09% ofthe global managed asset universe. Second, the absolute size ofthe EUR short is equivalent to around 1.3% ofthe daily turnover in EURUSD. Third, the big issue here is whether real money accounts (pensionfunds andlife insurance companies) and central banks may de-rate their opinions ofthe EUR, just as they de-rated their views on the dollar in 2002-08. In my opinion, an 'expanding universe' ofEUR-sellers will likely keep these 'short-squeezes' small in size, and help power a protracted downward trend in EURUSD. Private Equity Hedge Funds ■ SwF 0.1 ' Assets under Management 1 CIA 0.9 2.0 3.6 CB Reserves a 9,0 17.0 Insurance 18.9 Mutual Funds 30.0 Pension Funds 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Sources: MeV-witty. Muegold, IFSL Research The big sellers ofEURs so far have been the CTAs and hedge funds, which, as the chart above shows, together control 'only' USS2.1 trillion in AUM. Central ''An Expanding Universe of EUR Sellers,' (February 24, 2010). Page I 4 SONY_GM_00077714 Confidential Treatment Requested by JPMorgan Chase JPM-SDNY-00000841 EFTA_00188183 EFTA01256151
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EFTA01256148 | EFTA01256150 US$80 billion is equivalent to 5 months of China's trade surplus in 2009, or 80 million-worker-years, i.e., this is equivalent to the total annual wages of 80 million workers. Potential losses on European bond holdings. The managers of large EUR reserves are likely to be worried about the euro, but are also likely to be uncomfortable with the potential losses from potential defaults or debt rescheduling. My own view is that an eventual debt rescheduling is probable for Greece and Portugal, and will inflict further losses on central banks. The table below shows the relative size of the government debt for selected European countries. Since we do not have information on the specific breakdown, by country, of the European bond holdings by central banks, we have had to come up with some guesstimates. We made the conservative assumption that central banks have a disproportionately high exposure to German bunds and low exposure to the PIIGS bonds. But even with our conservative assumption, we find that it is possible that global central banks have close to a third of their EUR holdings in PIIGS bonds, and possibly 5% (about USD140 billion) or so in Greek and Portuguese bonds. A 30% haircut, which I think is likely, would imply a USD42 billion potential loss for the world's central banks, or USD22 billion or so in losses for the top-8 reserve holders. These figures are for indicative purposes only. Clearly if the size of the haircut is larger than 30% or if other countries also reschedule their debt, the losses would be much bigger. (US$ Bins) EUR Total GER PIIGS Total POR IRE ITA GRE SPA Gov't % of Possible 2/ Debt 1/ Total CB Portfolio 11,321 100% 1,508 13.3% 35.0% 3,909 34.5% 30.0% 182 1.6% 1.4% 135 1.2% 1.0% 19.7% 2,567 22.7% 428 3.8% 3.3% 597 5.3% 4.6% CB Reserves 3/ Top-8 All 1,550 3,000 543 1,050 465 900 22 42 16 31 305 591 51 99 71 138 Sources : Hover, Bluegoid 1/ Got!' Debt also includes local central bank's holding of its own de ot • nd other forms of non-bond debt. 2/ These are Our euesti mates of the portfolio allocation of reserves in the European sovereign bond markets. 3/Total central bank reserves held in (wins. by the top 8 reserves holders, and by all central banks; in billions of dollars. Page I 3 SD NY_GM_00077713 Confidential Treatment Requested by JPMorgan Chase JPM-SDNY-00000840 EFTA_00188182 EFTA01256150
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EFTA01256148 | EFTA01256149 social fundamentals deteriorating, but the rise of Europe and Asia would ultimately supplant the dollar and the US' dominance in the world, so the argument went. Since the EUR offered most liquidity - among the alternative reserve currencies to the dollar, an aggressive dollar diversification campaign by global central banks has helped propel FIJRUSD higher during most of the 2000s. 400.0 Ern S Valuation changes of EUR for Top 8 Reserve Holders 300.0 'M itValuation changes (SEM) 200.0 —Cumulative valuation changes (Mil 100.0 tEE a .4 i $84 Bln hT5 P,79 %Pow is, OThsloe 03 tit oesThiob ib*Ysi s" Of 5.0 14 Pr,' I of oti 6‘' 6'; 4‘' 4?; os S f:Pr 41' 4* cis' 61. -200.0 Valuation losses from the EUR weakness. As the EUR weakens, however, these central banks have suffered very large valuation losses. The exhibit above shows the quarterly EURUSD valuation changes (the bars in the chart) and the cumulative valuation changes since 1999 (the line in the chart), which is a proxy for the monetary value of USD diversification into the EUR. The episodes of USD strength in 2005 and 2008 are visible in the chart, so is the latest sell-off in the EUR. In fact, the cumulative benefits of dollar-to-euro diversification since end-1999 for the top-8 reserve holders are US$84 billion, down from a peak of US$343 in mid-2008. In other words, the cumulative benefits of dollar diversification since 1998 are a modest 5.6% of the total reserve holdings, and the same level of gains were reached in 2003, i.e., there has been no net change in the benefits from diversification in close to eiaht years. If EURUSD trades down to 1.2150, the cumulative benefits from dollar-to-euro diversification since the launch of the euro would be nil. Being the largest foreign currency reserve holder in the world, China has suffered EURUSD valuation losses of about US$80 billion so far this year. This is a large amount even for SAFE. To put this figure into perspective, Page I 2 SDNY_GM_00077712 Confidential Treatment Requested by JPMorgan Chase JPM-SDNY-00000839 EFTA_0018818I EFTA01256149
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EFTA01256148 | EFTA01256148 BLUEGOLD Central Banks' Lossesfrom EURUSD this Year: USD300 Billion and Counting Stephen L Jen May 6, 2010 Bottom line: Central banks have sustained USD300 billion in valuation losses (Y7D)from the depreciating euro. The level ofangst at these central banks may be elevated now and the risks are rising that some of these central banks de-rate the euro. Totalforeign currency reserves held by all central bank have reached USD9.0 trillion, with the top-8 reserve holders managing some US$5.3 trillion. Of this latter amount, USS1.55 trillion (or 30% of the total) is held in mom. Corresponding to the 10% depreciation in EURUSD year-to-date, the top-8 reserve holders may have steered close to USD200 billion in valuation losses, andfor all central banks the total valuation loss has been around USD300 billion. We guesstimate that China (SAFE) may have suffered a US$80 billion in EUR valuation losses, USU.; billion for Russia, and US$7 billionfor Korea. These figures do not include actual and potentialfurther losses on their underlying holdings of European bonds. If EURUSD trades down to 1.2150, all of the monetary gainsfrom the dollar-to-euro diversification in the past decade will be lost. (1) Central banks' reserve managers are presumably reconsidering their dollar-diversification strategy, now that the euro is alsofound to be less than a perfect 'anti-dollar'. (2) The risks offurther declines in the euro and a possible debt rescheduling in Europe are likely to be sources ofadditional worriesfor central banks with large exposures to the euro. (3) In addition to central banks being concerned about the euro, the euro-selling process has only just begunfor the large real money institutionalfunds, and the potentialfor much largerfunds to reduce their euro exposures is significant. Since January, my mental target for EURUSD has been 1.20. However, I now think the risk to EURUSD is heavily biased to the downside relative to thisfigure. Central bank reserves. In the past decade, the top 8 reserve holders in the world bought close to US$1.5 trillion worth ofEURs. This `dollar diversification' became particularly aggressive since 2002. The thesis, presumably, was that the dollar was losing its hegemonk reserve currency status in an increasingly globalised world. Not only were the US economic and Page I 1 SDNY_GM_00077711 Confidential Treatment Requested by JPMorgan Chase JPM-SDNY-00000838 EFTA_00188180 EFTA01256148 Epstein Web iOS app on the App Store.
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