German 10 year yield back the levels before fiscal expansion announcement.
April 7, 2025 at 7:24 AM
German 10 year yield back the levels before fiscal expansion announcement.
one thing that fascinates me about Takaichi's plans for fiscal expansion is that basically while fiscal expansion isn't *bad* per se, Abenomics was much more than fiscal expansion (at least in theory) - structural reform matters too, but then again, LDP isn't likely to rock the boat
August 1, 2026 at 10:05 PM
one thing that fascinates me about Takaichi's plans for fiscal expansion is that basically while fiscal expansion isn't *bad* per se, Abenomics was much more than fiscal expansion (at least in theory) - structural reform matters too, but then again, LDP isn't likely to rock the boat
If a non-expansion state newly adopts expansion, hospitals/other providers see those SDPs at 110% of Medicare fall to 100%. Creates another disincentive for states to take up expansion along with other provisions including elimination of existing fiscal incentives to encourage expansion (7/x)
May 22, 2025 at 2:40 AM
If a non-expansion state newly adopts expansion, hospitals/other providers see those SDPs at 110% of Medicare fall to 100%. Creates another disincentive for states to take up expansion along with other provisions including elimination of existing fiscal incentives to encourage expansion (7/x)
One way to think about long yields is that it’s not just that US domestic politics is leading to American fiscal expansion, but that US foreign policy is pushing fiscal expansion outside the US, particularly (but not exclusively) in American allies with large trade surpluses.
June 29, 2025 at 4:05 PM
One way to think about long yields is that it’s not just that US domestic politics is leading to American fiscal expansion, but that US foreign policy is pushing fiscal expansion outside the US, particularly (but not exclusively) in American allies with large trade surpluses.
happy about fiscal expansion?
Nikkei up over 2,000 points after Takaichi becomes Japan ruling party chief-kyodo
October 6, 2025 at 2:27 AM
happy about fiscal expansion?
Small gov my ass. Biggest tax hike in decades + massive military expansion + Big Beautiful Bill bloat.
MAGAts, what’s left?
Epstein files? Nope.
Low taxes? Nope.
Anti-war? Nope.
Fiscal sanity? LOL.
Congrats , you’re exactly what you scream Democrats are.
MAGAts, what’s left?
Epstein files? Nope.
Low taxes? Nope.
Anti-war? Nope.
Fiscal sanity? LOL.
Congrats , you’re exactly what you scream Democrats are.
January 8, 2026 at 12:47 AM
Small gov my ass. Biggest tax hike in decades + massive military expansion + Big Beautiful Bill bloat.
MAGAts, what’s left?
Epstein files? Nope.
Low taxes? Nope.
Anti-war? Nope.
Fiscal sanity? LOL.
Congrats , you’re exactly what you scream Democrats are.
MAGAts, what’s left?
Epstein files? Nope.
Low taxes? Nope.
Anti-war? Nope.
Fiscal sanity? LOL.
Congrats , you’re exactly what you scream Democrats are.
a lot of people whose politics were shaped by the great expansion after 2008 (rather than by the crash itself) and then big fiscal saving us in 2020 have come to believe material politics don't exist anymore
start a recession and find out
start a recession and find out
March 3, 2025 at 10:05 PM
a lot of people whose politics were shaped by the great expansion after 2008 (rather than by the crash itself) and then big fiscal saving us in 2020 have come to believe material politics don't exist anymore
start a recession and find out
start a recession and find out
1. Increased domestic consumption/investment in EU & CN thru centralized fiscal expansion = more robust alternative safe-assets.
2. Fiscal expansion that reduces trade surpluses outside US = less need to buy USTs.
3. Reshoring/reduced market access to US = fewer econ carrots for EM to align w. US.
2. Fiscal expansion that reduces trade surpluses outside US = less need to buy USTs.
3. Reshoring/reduced market access to US = fewer econ carrots for EM to align w. US.
August 13, 2025 at 4:15 PM
1. Increased domestic consumption/investment in EU & CN thru centralized fiscal expansion = more robust alternative safe-assets.
2. Fiscal expansion that reduces trade surpluses outside US = less need to buy USTs.
3. Reshoring/reduced market access to US = fewer econ carrots for EM to align w. US.
2. Fiscal expansion that reduces trade surpluses outside US = less need to buy USTs.
3. Reshoring/reduced market access to US = fewer econ carrots for EM to align w. US.
Wow. Worst day for German bonds since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The market is taking this fiscal expansion seriously www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
March 5, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Wow. Worst day for German bonds since the fall of the Berlin Wall. The market is taking this fiscal expansion seriously www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
3) Related to #2, pending massive fiscal expansion in Europe needed to finance continental defense will enlarge the pool of euro assets as alternatives to UST (nowhere near enough to rival UST, but the market for euro securities will continue growing, esp. if --> fiscal union)
3/9
3/9
April 9, 2025 at 1:03 PM
3) Related to #2, pending massive fiscal expansion in Europe needed to finance continental defense will enlarge the pool of euro assets as alternatives to UST (nowhere near enough to rival UST, but the market for euro securities will continue growing, esp. if --> fiscal union)
3/9
3/9
After reading comments suggesting that her rhetoric about fiscal expansion was simply due to political conditions before the election, I felt that it was imperative to show that people should take her commitment to fiscal expansionism seriously. Free to read:
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
The lady's not for turning
Taking Takaichi seriously on fiscal policy
open.substack.com
February 20, 2026 at 2:27 AM
After reading comments suggesting that her rhetoric about fiscal expansion was simply due to political conditions before the election, I felt that it was imperative to show that people should take her commitment to fiscal expansionism seriously. Free to read:
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
open.substack.com/pub/observin...
The fiscal fantasy of fossil fuels.
Great new piece from @chrishatch.bsky.social on the brutal math of fossil fuel expansion... www.nationalobserver.com/2026/07/13/o...
Great new piece from @chrishatch.bsky.social on the brutal math of fossil fuel expansion... www.nationalobserver.com/2026/07/13/o...
The fiscal fantasy of fossil fuels
Governments spend billions fighting fires, rebuilding communities, compensating disaster victims and treating the growing health burden from climate change. Then those same governments spend billions ...
www.nationalobserver.com
July 13, 2026 at 3:46 PM
The fiscal fantasy of fossil fuels.
Great new piece from @chrishatch.bsky.social on the brutal math of fossil fuel expansion... www.nationalobserver.com/2026/07/13/o...
Great new piece from @chrishatch.bsky.social on the brutal math of fossil fuel expansion... www.nationalobserver.com/2026/07/13/o...
1/3
Biagio Bossone: "The IMF reads this as two separate domestic distortions needing two separate domestic fixes: Chinese fiscal expansion and US fiscal tightening. But the two are not separate stories.
www.omfif.org/2026/09/the-...
Biagio Bossone: "The IMF reads this as two separate domestic distortions needing two separate domestic fixes: Chinese fiscal expansion and US fiscal tightening. But the two are not separate stories.
www.omfif.org/2026/09/the-...
The missing variable in the imbalances debate - OMFIF
IMF traces global imbalances back to domestic saving-investment gaps – weak Chinese investment and an over-spending US – rather trade policy
www.omfif.org
September 26, 2026 at 10:21 AM
1/3
Biagio Bossone: "The IMF reads this as two separate domestic distortions needing two separate domestic fixes: Chinese fiscal expansion and US fiscal tightening. But the two are not separate stories.
www.omfif.org/2026/09/the-...
Biagio Bossone: "The IMF reads this as two separate domestic distortions needing two separate domestic fixes: Chinese fiscal expansion and US fiscal tightening. But the two are not separate stories.
www.omfif.org/2026/09/the-...
Republicans aren't going to vote for you no matter what. Leaning into this messaging only gives them control of the narrative. If you really want to show fiscal responsibility, maybe start with the $2+Billion freeway expansion that nobody asked for.
December 24, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Republicans aren't going to vote for you no matter what. Leaning into this messaging only gives them control of the narrative. If you really want to show fiscal responsibility, maybe start with the $2+Billion freeway expansion that nobody asked for.
“Clear evidence of growth expectations: The steepening German yield curve, rising stock prices, euro appreciation, and stable CDS prices collectively indicate that markets interpret Germany’s fiscal expansion as growth-enhancing rather than a reckless fiscal bet.”
www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...
www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...
March 7, 2025 at 1:34 PM
“Clear evidence of growth expectations: The steepening German yield curve, rising stock prices, euro appreciation, and stable CDS prices collectively indicate that markets interpret Germany’s fiscal expansion as growth-enhancing rather than a reckless fiscal bet.”
www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...
www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...
Luxon defending his massive prison-expansion plans. A huge difference from Bill English, who called mega-prisons a moral and fiscal failure. #nzqt
May 7, 2024 at 2:44 AM
Luxon defending his massive prison-expansion plans. A huge difference from Bill English, who called mega-prisons a moral and fiscal failure. #nzqt
These cuts would likely include dropping #Medicaid expansion as many states increased their provider taxes to finance expansion costs (which may now be prohibited). And if states drop expansion the cap on provider taxes goes up to 6% immediately relieving fiscal pressure on rest of the program (4/x)
June 16, 2025 at 9:47 PM
These cuts would likely include dropping #Medicaid expansion as many states increased their provider taxes to finance expansion costs (which may now be prohibited). And if states drop expansion the cap on provider taxes goes up to 6% immediately relieving fiscal pressure on rest of the program (4/x)
The downside of staving off recessions ft.trib.al/QJs0FVu
The downside of staving off recessions
Long periods of expansion create fiscal, financial and productivity risks
ft.trib.al
February 8, 2026 at 12:08 PM
The downside of staving off recessions ft.trib.al/QJs0FVu
Republican senators block tens of billions for the Iran campaign, citing zero exit blueprint. Trump's fevered expansion now collapses inside Senate files into ossified alliances and unburied fiscal cadavers.
#IranWar
#IranWar
May 14, 2026 at 5:18 PM
Republican senators block tens of billions for the Iran campaign, citing zero exit blueprint. Trump's fevered expansion now collapses inside Senate files into ossified alliances and unburied fiscal cadavers.
#IranWar
#IranWar
I just finished writing a lot of words on why Takaichi means what she says about fiscal expansion. Coming soon...
February 19, 2026 at 10:17 PM
I just finished writing a lot of words on why Takaichi means what she says about fiscal expansion. Coming soon...
Costco said it plans to open 35 warehouses this fiscal year, up from 27 last year, with "significant opportunities for expansion."
Costco plans to open new locations at a quicker pace as it tackles busy warehouses
Costco said it plans to open 35 warehouses this fiscal year, up from 27 last year, with "significant opportunities for expansion."
www.businessinsider.com
September 26, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Costco said it plans to open 35 warehouses this fiscal year, up from 27 last year, with "significant opportunities for expansion."
This isn’t, for Britain, the 2010s.
Rates are higher, inflation is higher, spare capacity is lower.
In the 2010s, debt funded fiscal expansion would have been a sensible growth strategy. Nowadays expansionary fiscal policy isn’t a free lunch.
1/2
Rates are higher, inflation is higher, spare capacity is lower.
In the 2010s, debt funded fiscal expansion would have been a sensible growth strategy. Nowadays expansionary fiscal policy isn’t a free lunch.
1/2
March 10, 2025 at 4:18 PM
This isn’t, for Britain, the 2010s.
Rates are higher, inflation is higher, spare capacity is lower.
In the 2010s, debt funded fiscal expansion would have been a sensible growth strategy. Nowadays expansionary fiscal policy isn’t a free lunch.
1/2
Rates are higher, inflation is higher, spare capacity is lower.
In the 2010s, debt funded fiscal expansion would have been a sensible growth strategy. Nowadays expansionary fiscal policy isn’t a free lunch.
1/2
Es decir, en España ha tenido lugar, desde 2020, una "expansión fiscal equilibrada" (Balanced budget fiscal expansion): un aumento de la demanda agregada mediante la modificación de los niveles de gasto y tributación, sin alterar a medio plazo los niveles de déficit y deuda.
November 13, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Es decir, en España ha tenido lugar, desde 2020, una "expansión fiscal equilibrada" (Balanced budget fiscal expansion): un aumento de la demanda agregada mediante la modificación de los niveles de gasto y tributación, sin alterar a medio plazo los niveles de déficit y deuda.