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climatecasino.net
The maximum global mean surface temperature (GMST) was 15.48°C for the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period. In other words, the GMST never broke 15.50°C.

This graphic shows the number of times per year the GMST broke 15.50°C, from 1940 to 2024.

2025 is at 149 and counting.
October 3, 2025 at 6:25 PM
climatecasino.net
How much can the 2-year running mean for the global surface temperature anomaly go down in the future from a past high point?

The record drop is 0.273°C, from a past high GMST anomaly of 0.724°C (Nov. 21, 1991) to a future low GMST anomaly of 0.451°C (Mar. 26, 1994).
June 22, 2025 at 3:31 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
1000 Day Running Average crosses 1.5C

Details in Alt Text
#ShowYourStripes @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social
Graphic: 1000-day running average Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) anomaly (Copernicus ERA5 data) relative to Pre-Industrial. Graph is 1980 to May 25th 2025. Background shows Ed Hawkin's "Show Your Stripes" lines Source: https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv How to get anomaly relative to Pre-Industrial (1850-1900): https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/copernicus-1850-1900-baseline-daily-gmst/ Sanity Check Sources: Below are links to Copernicus's website, with gives GMST anomalies for various months/years. If you average them (properly, taking into account number of days that each value represents) ... and add May 2025 values then you get a 1000-day running average crossing 1.5C on 25th May 2025 https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-september-2022 September 2022 is around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 level https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-october-2022 Oct 2022 is around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 level https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-november-2022 Nov 2022 is around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 level https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-december-2022 Dec 2022 is around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 level https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record 2023 was 1.48°C warmer than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights-2024 2024 was ... 1.60°C warmer than the pre-industrial level https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-january-2025 Jan 2025 was 1.75°C above the pre-industrial level https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-february-2025 Feb 2025 was 1.59°C above the estimated 1850-1900 average https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-march-2025 Mar 2025 was 1.60°C above the estimated 1850-1900 average https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-april-2025 Apr 2025 was 1.51°C above the estimated 1850-1900 average
May 28, 2025 at 7:22 AM
serenity.tgirl.gay
gmst- *destroyed by jeff bezos himself*
October 20, 2025 at 9:30 AM
serenity.tgirl.gay
gmst-
February 11, 2026 at 10:05 AM
thirstygecko.bsky.social
'Overall, we find that the effects of internal climate variability on GMST and the uncertain relationship between GMST and regional extremes may lead to inaccurate attribution conclusions using the part of the [World Weather Attribution] approach examined here' journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...
journals.ametsoc.org
April 29, 2025 at 11:41 PM
serenity.tgirl.gay
gmst- *crashes into the wall*
October 21, 2025 at 6:48 PM
oliviatruax.bsky.social
💯 this paper crystalized for me that many (most?) economists have two fundamental misunderstandings about climate change: the idea that GMST rise *causes* regional changes in Earth's climate system (!) and the idea that historical relationship between GMST and GDP will hold in the future
May 15, 2024 at 3:35 AM
zekehausfather.com
Essentially we separate the outcome we are studying (4C GMST) with the path we take to get there (emissions, sensitivity, carbon cycle feedbacks).
May 24, 2026 at 4:43 PM
zekehausfather.com
We are kinda in uncharted waters here. The model is predicting temperatures based on the historical GMST response to El Nino in the remaining months of the year, but we haven't ever seen an event as strong as predicted to its pretty far out of sample!
September 9, 2026 at 12:20 AM
climateofgavin.bsky.social
Great new reconstruction - years in the making - for global temperatures over the last 500 million years.

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature
A long-term record of global mean surface temperature (GMST) provides critical insight into the dynamical limits of Earth’s climate and the complex feedbacks between temperature and the broader Earth ...
www.science.org
September 19, 2024 at 8:16 PM
zekehausfather.com
Rather than arguing against human influence on the climate, the paper makes the stark claim that "CO2 is the dominant driver of Phanerozoic climate [the past 485 million years], emphasizing the importance of this greenhouse gas in shaping Earth history."

www.science.org/doi/...
A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature | Science
A long-term record of global mean surface temperature (GMST) provides critical insight into the dynamical limits of Earth’s climate and the complex feedbacks between temperature and the broader Ear...
www.science.org
March 24, 2025 at 7:24 PM
d3v1ls7h3r4p157.bsky.social
"Some temperature history of the last 12.000 years - it's important to understand how fast we warm the climate compared to other periods...

…and deglaciation periods should be warming on steroids:

For understanding the graph…[please see #ALT.txt]" by @umsonst.bsky.social

#doomsky
#collapse
Among the five reconstruction methods, CPS stands out prominently with its large temperature changes (Fig. 3), especially in the Northern Hemisphere (Figs. 1 and 2). For example, the median ensemble member of the CPS reconstruction shows that GMST warmed by about 3.9 °C between 12 and 10 ka compared to about 1.1 °C for the other methods. The median GMST during the period centered on 6 ka, the long-standing mid-Holocene target for paleoclimate modeling experiments (e.g., ref. 15) was 1.1 °C warmer than the 19th Century in the CPS reconstruction compared to about 0.4–0.5 °C for the other methods (Table 1). There are few published proxy-based reconstructions of Holocene GMST for comparison (Fig. 6). For the period of 12 to 10 ka, Shakun et al.’s (ref. 16) multi-proxy GMST reconstruction of the last deglacial transition shows a warming of about 1.3 °C. Similarly, Snyder’s (ref. 17) 2 Myr global temperature transformation of the marine oxygen-isotope record also indicates a warming of about 1.3 °C over this period. Both of these studies suggest that the early Holocene warming is exaggerated in the CPS reconstruction, by about a factor of three. For the mid Holocene (6.5–5.5 ka), Marcott et al.’s (ref. 2) reconstruction shows a GMST approximately 0.6 °C warmer than the 19th Century (Fig. 6), and another proxy-data compilation focused on the mid-Holocene (6 ka) shows average land and sea-surface temperatures that are essentially indistinguishable from pre-industrial (Fig. 1c in ref. 15). Both of these studies suggest that the mid Holocene warmth is exaggerated in the CPS reconstruction. The recent pollen-based Holocene temperature reconstruction for North America and Europe18 also implies less mid-Holocene warming, although comparing global with regional reconstructions can be problematic. "Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach"; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0530-7
September 22, 2026 at 1:36 PM
mktippett.bsky.social
Come for SVD, stay for the ENSO-conditioned global mean temperature forecasts agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Panel (e) shows NMME (±2 std shading) and simplified model (95% prediction interval) forecasts of June 2026–May 2027 GMST.
July 23, 2026 at 5:47 AM
retoknutti.bsky.social
We show that quantifying GMST from ocean-only data indicate lower temperatures 1900-1930 than reconstructing from land-only data, despite all known and fixed issues with measurement practice. (4/13)
November 20, 2024 at 4:14 PM
leonsimons.com
These are the daily ECMWF 1850-1900 global temperatures:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
ECMWF ERA5 GMST 1850-1900 daily climatology
docs.google.com
March 4, 2025 at 10:03 AM
umsonst.bsky.social
Some temperature history of the last 12.000 years - it's important to understand how fast we warm the climate compared to other periods...

And deglaciation periods should be warming on steroids...

#climate #earth
Temperatures the last 12.000 years - some 2°C warming the first 2000y CPS data: Among the five reconstruction methods, CPS stands out prominently with its large temperature changes, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. For example, the median ensemble member of the CPS reconstruction shows that GMST warmed by about 3.9 °C between 12 and 10 ka compared to about 1.1 °C for the other methods. The median GMST during the period centered on 6 ka, the long-standing mid-Holocene target for paleoclimate modeling experiments (e.g., ref. 15) was 1.1 °C warmer than the 19th Century in the CPS reconstruction compared to about 0.4–0.5 °C for the other methods (Table 1). There are few published proxy-based reconstructions of Holocene GMST for comparison. For the period of 12 to 10 ka, Shakun et al.’s (ref. 16) multi-proxy GMST reconstruction of the last deglacial transition shows a warming of about 1.3 °C. Similarly, Snyder’s (ref. 17) 2 Myr global temperature transformation of the marine oxygen-isotope record also indicates a warming of about 1.3 °C over this period. Both of these studies suggest that the early Holocene warming is exaggerated in the CPS reconstruction, by about a factor of three. For the mid Holocene (6.5–5.5 ka), Marcott et al.’s (ref. 2) reconstruction shows a GMST approximately 0.6 °C warmer than the 19th Century (Fig. 6), and another proxy-data compilation focused on the mid-Holocene (6 ka) shows average land and sea-surface temperatures that are essentially indistinguishable from pre-industrial (Fig. 1c in ref. 15). Both of these studies suggest that the mid Holocene warmth is exaggerated in the CPS reconstruction. The recent pollen-based Holocene temperature reconstruction for North America and Europe18 also implies less mid-Holocene warming, although comparing global with regional reconstructions can be problematic. "Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach"; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0530-7
September 21, 2026 at 8:13 AM
lizk40.bsky.social
The paper describing the new DCENT-I dataset of monthly global surface temperature since 1850 is just published.

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
DCENT‐I: A Globally Infilled Extension of the Dynamically Consistent ENsemble of Temperature Dataset
DCENT-I infills data gaps in DCENT, producing spatially coherent temperature fields (top) and a slightly higher GMST warming estimate (bottom). Top: December 1877 temperature anomalies (°C; 1961–1990...
rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
February 13, 2026 at 11:08 AM
retoknutti.bsky.social
Full paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08230-1

It’s probably the most iconic time series in climate change and the basis for the iconic warming stripes: global temperature (GMST) since ~1850. (2/13)
November 20, 2024 at 4:14 PM
ryankatzrosene.bsky.social
It’s also rather hilarious that skeptics will post this graph of GMST over half a billion years and then five minutes later contest the assertion that there is such a thing as “Global Average Temperature” or that we could possibly know what the global temperature was before the Industrial Era🤪
zekehausfather.com Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · Mar 24
Whenever I post about climate, skeptical folks inevitable respond with this graph. So I decided to do something radical: actually read the underling scientific paper and ask the authors.

As it turns out, it actually says the opposite of what skeptics claim: www.theclimatebrink....
March 24, 2025 at 8:37 PM
zekehausfather.com
Not that I'm aware of; El Nino is not in itself a forcing. Though the cycle of El Ninos followed by La Ninas can create a stair-step pattern in GMST.
September 28, 2026 at 3:20 PM
zacklabe.com
Minor technical points that have irritated me the last few months - mixing/matching of different dataset reference periods and unrealistically high GMST precision. But I'm just on Bluesky to complain 😉
October 10, 2023 at 3:07 PM
vojtechpecka.bsky.social
Nedávný výzkum publikovaný v časopise Science, který pokrývá podobné období, dává velmi odlišný obrázek. Autoři doslova tvrdí, že: „CO2 je dominantním faktorem ovlivňujícím klima ve fanerozoiku” (posledních cca 540 milionů let). 3/n
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature
A long-term record of global mean surface temperature (GMST) provides critical insight into the dynamical limits of Earth’s climate and the complex feedbacks between temperature and the broader Earth ...
www.science.org
January 8, 2025 at 12:15 PM
micefearboggis.bsky.social
There are three new datasets this year. DCENT-I, CMA-GMST and CMST. They help to understand some of the structural uncertainty in global temperatures.
March 23, 2026 at 7:53 PM
supsips.bsky.social
Qué delicia escuchar a Eugenia León cantando Te hubieras ido antes sin más acompañamiento que un acordeón. Se los comparto porque sería un pecado ser tan egoísta de escucharla sola.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmSt...
TE HUBIERAS IDO ANTES (Acústico). Eugenia León
YouTube video by Eugenia León Oficial
www.youtube.com
March 30, 2025 at 6:20 PM