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Asia across regions, and Cyclical stocks and US Returns in USD. *Local currency. **Hedged into USD Home builders across sectors. Euro Fixed Income is iBoxx Overall Index. US HG, HY, EMBIG and EM $ Corp are JPM indices. EM FX is ELMI+ ¢ The rebound in the October global manufacturing PMI is what keeps us long ing Cyclical vs. Defensive equity sectors. Is this a high-beta trade? Not 2 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026573
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meetings this 29 week, but the latter delivered a curveball today, announcing that its net _ coupon income from QE would be transferred to the UK Treasury from next 27 year on. The near-term effect is a slight monetary easing, as the money will be used to reduce the amount of gilts in issue, similar to QE itself. 4 e Beyond that, this is another small step towards perceptions that monetary Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul12 Oct-12 policy is no longer independent from fiscal policy, like the Bank of Japan’s 44. jp Morgan, Consensus Economics. Consensus Economios joint statement with two government ministers last month. Nobody knows the forecasts are for regions and countries that we averaged using the tipping point at which these perceptions feed into much higher inflation same 5-year rolling USD GDP weights that we use for our own global expectations, just that we'll know it when we see it. sone ¢ Core euro bond yields are towards the low end of the range, and we expect More details in ... them to head higher. But we focus more risk on spread compression trades, Global Data Watch, Bruce Kasman and David Hensley via overweights in Euro area peripherals, US MBS, and EM local bonds vs Global Markets Outlook and Strategy, Jan Loeys, Bruce DM. Kasman, et al E a US Fixed Income Markets, Terry Belton and Srini qu ities Ramaswamy e Equity markets fell sharply post US elections, but we are not changing our Global Fixed Income Markets, Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio strategy. Bassi Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy, Joyce Chang ¢ From a month ago, we avoided directional longs in our GMOS model equity —_key trades and risk: Emerging Market Equity Strategy, portfolio due to elevated positions by spec investors (see Charts Al0 and Al2 Adrian Mowat et al in today’s Flows & Liquidity). We preferred to focus instead on regional and Flows and Liquidity, Nikos Panigirtzoglou et al sectoral trades. We stay with the same strategy focusing our Description of YTD Chart on front page recommendations on EM
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jan.loeys@jpmorgan.com 09 November 2012 e Asaresult, we stay underweight US equities and have moved risk from our 2012 global GDP growth forecasts: JPMorgan and : eas . : ‘ Consensus US credit longs into Europe. Our initial US equity underweight was against - Europe and EM Asia. Our recent downgrade of Q1 growth in the Euro area and better activity data in China made us move the lion’s share of the 40 overweight versus the US into EM Asia (see Wednesday’s Global Market Outlook and Strategy). 35 Consensus e Chinese activity data continue to surprise on the upside. October data for 30 IP, retail sales and fixed investment each came above our expectations. This " JPM creates upside risk, but no change yet, to our forecasts which already assume a 9.5 gentle rise in quarterly growth rates from under 7% early this year to just above 8% in Q1. Better data reduce the need for renewed fiscal and monetary 20 stimulus. The 18th Party Congress started yesterday, will last a week, and will Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 be followed by the announcement of the next leadership. More important for . F : : : Source: J.P. Morgan, Consensus Economics. Consensus Economics the economic outlook will be the Annual Central Economic Working forecasts are for regions and countries that we averaged using the Conference that will be held in December. We expect it to support continued —_same 5-year rolling USD GDP weights that we use for our own global moderate fiscal policy, a neutral monetary policy, and further economic gromiivnorecest rebalancing towards domestic consumption. It may also lower the 2013 . growth target to 7%. For more details, see Haibin Zhu in today’s GDW. ao GOP greth forecaster ie Morganand Fixed Income 34 e Bonds rallied strongly, in the slipstream of the tumbling equity market. President Obama’s re-election perhaps also diminishes expectations of a 3.2 Consensus: change in course at the Fed. e The ECB and the Bank of England stood pat at their policy
February 9, 2026 at 5:57 PM