This is one of those probability facts that drives my usual advice to people seeking intution for probability theory: Stop seeking intuition! It's not intuitive, and that's why it is so useful.
You can learn examples and reform your intution in time. But better to just trust the axioms and compute.
You can learn examples and reform your intution in time. But better to just trust the axioms and compute.
In fact, in any group around 60, the likelihood two people share a birthday is virtually 100%.
We could then begin to express the rare likelihood that NO two people share a combination in a group of 50 or more.
The problem was likely developed by number theorist Harold Davenport around 1927.
We could then begin to express the rare likelihood that NO two people share a combination in a group of 50 or more.
The problem was likely developed by number theorist Harold Davenport around 1927.
August 27, 2025 at 2:09 PM
This is one of those probability facts that drives my usual advice to people seeking intution for probability theory: Stop seeking intuition! It's not intuitive, and that's why it is so useful.
You can learn examples and reform your intution in time. But better to just trust the axioms and compute.
You can learn examples and reform your intution in time. But better to just trust the axioms and compute.
UNRIVALED intution
January 6, 2026 at 12:23 AM
UNRIVALED intution
Vicente Valentim, Elias Dinas, & I came together to do this paper because we have all long shared an intution: mainstream center-right rhetoric shapes democratic norms. The hard part? Showing it empirically. We make some headway in this new paper. Grateful to @bjpols.bsky.social for publishing.
NEW -
How Mainstream Politicians Erode Norms - cup.org/4lfeHvD
"we find that statements by mainstream politicians lead to more norm erosion than similar statements by radical-right politicians"
- @valentimvicente.bsky.social, Elias Dinas & @dziblatt.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
How Mainstream Politicians Erode Norms - cup.org/4lfeHvD
"we find that statements by mainstream politicians lead to more norm erosion than similar statements by radical-right politicians"
- @valentimvicente.bsky.social, Elias Dinas & @dziblatt.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
August 12, 2025 at 10:51 AM
Vicente Valentim, Elias Dinas, & I came together to do this paper because we have all long shared an intution: mainstream center-right rhetoric shapes democratic norms. The hard part? Showing it empirically. We make some headway in this new paper. Grateful to @bjpols.bsky.social for publishing.
It’s more important now than ever ⚖️ Good Night #BlueSky
#discernment #intution #facts #fiction #witchsky #occultsky #pagansky
#discernment #intution #facts #fiction #witchsky #occultsky #pagansky
January 26, 2025 at 1:43 AM
It’s more important now than ever ⚖️ Good Night #BlueSky
#discernment #intution #facts #fiction #witchsky #occultsky #pagansky
#discernment #intution #facts #fiction #witchsky #occultsky #pagansky
I felt this intution intensely when I saw the Bayeux Tapestry.
@rkubala.bsky.social, @adamlovett.bsky.social, and I have a new paper forthcoming in the Journal of Philosophy. It’s called “On the value of irreplaceable objects” – Here’s a thread!
philpapers.org/rec/KUBOTV 1/n
philpapers.org/rec/KUBOTV 1/n
Robbie Kubala, Harvey Lederman & Adam Lovett, On the Value of Irreplaceable Objects - PhilPapers
Bradford (2023) calls attention to the fact that the strength of our reasons to preserve distinctively valuable objects increases as the number of such objects decreases. Bradford develops an account ...
philpapers.org
May 12, 2025 at 9:23 AM
I felt this intution intensely when I saw the Bayeux Tapestry.
bro hasn't reconciled the discrepancies between his moral intution & moral reasoning 😂 bro living an unexamined moral life fr fr 🤣
December 11, 2025 at 1:42 AM
bro hasn't reconciled the discrepancies between his moral intution & moral reasoning 😂 bro living an unexamined moral life fr fr 🤣
How do you decide which engineering tasks you hand to an LLM? I finally wrote down the intution I like to use: knorpelsenf.me/posts/semant...
LLMs in Professional Software Engineering
knorpelsenf.me
September 28, 2026 at 7:24 AM
How do you decide which engineering tasks you hand to an LLM? I finally wrote down the intution I like to use: knorpelsenf.me/posts/semant...
Chandler Bing Yells 'Shut Up!'
ALT: Chandler Bing Yells 'Shut Up!'
static.klipy.com
July 1, 2026 at 3:21 AM
Daily Tarot: 7 of Cups
Today you seem to have multiple choices. Which one feels the best? What is your intution pulling you to? Weigh your pros and cons so that you can make the best possible choice possible.
buff.ly/TvyLhiW
#tarot #tarotreading #psychic
Today you seem to have multiple choices. Which one feels the best? What is your intution pulling you to? Weigh your pros and cons so that you can make the best possible choice possible.
buff.ly/TvyLhiW
#tarot #tarotreading #psychic
September 25, 2026 at 1:01 PM
Daily Tarot: 7 of Cups
Today you seem to have multiple choices. Which one feels the best? What is your intution pulling you to? Weigh your pros and cons so that you can make the best possible choice possible.
buff.ly/TvyLhiW
#tarot #tarotreading #psychic
Today you seem to have multiple choices. Which one feels the best? What is your intution pulling you to? Weigh your pros and cons so that you can make the best possible choice possible.
buff.ly/TvyLhiW
#tarot #tarotreading #psychic
Lessons I learned from 2025
💠Trust your intuition!! it rarely steers you wrong.
💠Don’t rush into opportunities, no matter how enticing they seem.
💠Stay true to yourself, always.
💠Don’t be afraid to make mistakes—they don’t make you any less valuable.
did I mention to trust your intution?
💠Trust your intuition!! it rarely steers you wrong.
💠Don’t rush into opportunities, no matter how enticing they seem.
💠Stay true to yourself, always.
💠Don’t be afraid to make mistakes—they don’t make you any less valuable.
did I mention to trust your intution?
February 25, 2026 at 8:00 PM
Lessons I learned from 2025
💠Trust your intuition!! it rarely steers you wrong.
💠Don’t rush into opportunities, no matter how enticing they seem.
💠Stay true to yourself, always.
💠Don’t be afraid to make mistakes—they don’t make you any less valuable.
did I mention to trust your intution?
💠Trust your intuition!! it rarely steers you wrong.
💠Don’t rush into opportunities, no matter how enticing they seem.
💠Stay true to yourself, always.
💠Don’t be afraid to make mistakes—they don’t make you any less valuable.
did I mention to trust your intution?
Here's the table of contents for my lengthy new piece on how I use LLMs to help me write code simonwillison.net/2025/Mar/11/...
March 11, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Here's the table of contents for my lengthy new piece on how I use LLMs to help me write code simonwillison.net/2025/Mar/11/...
Your soul, Intution, destiny , heart ♥️ > their opinions … listen carefully everyone - listen carefully 🩵
July 9, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Your soul, Intution, destiny , heart ♥️ > their opinions … listen carefully everyone - listen carefully 🩵
Etwas Neues von mir: Der Merkur bringt meinen Text »Probabilistische Intution. Über artifiziellen Text und seine Stile«. www.merkur-zeitschrift.de/artikel/prob...
August 26, 2026 at 8:22 PM
Etwas Neues von mir: Der Merkur bringt meinen Text »Probabilistische Intution. Über artifiziellen Text und seine Stile«. www.merkur-zeitschrift.de/artikel/prob...
AF1 is going to have an "accident" or similar ? For some reason I get this vision/intution something is going to happen in that regard.
November 14, 2025 at 6:02 AM
AF1 is going to have an "accident" or similar ? For some reason I get this vision/intution something is going to happen in that regard.
Stop ignoring your intution. You feel crazy bc you're going against yourself all of the time.
November 24, 2024 at 8:33 PM
Stop ignoring your intution. You feel crazy bc you're going against yourself all of the time.
Kaum ein Fach schätzt Sachexpertise so hoch wie die Geschichtswiss. Nur wer die Sprache spricht, Quellen gesichtet & die ganze Literatur kennt, darf sich - vorsichtig! - zu einem Thema äußern. Generalisierung ist verpönt.
Außer natürlich, es geht um Wissenschaftstheorie. Da reicht dann die Intution
Außer natürlich, es geht um Wissenschaftstheorie. Da reicht dann die Intution
January 23, 2026 at 11:27 AM
Kaum ein Fach schätzt Sachexpertise so hoch wie die Geschichtswiss. Nur wer die Sprache spricht, Quellen gesichtet & die ganze Literatur kennt, darf sich - vorsichtig! - zu einem Thema äußern. Generalisierung ist verpönt.
Außer natürlich, es geht um Wissenschaftstheorie. Da reicht dann die Intution
Außer natürlich, es geht um Wissenschaftstheorie. Da reicht dann die Intution
June 29, 2024 at 6:33 PM
i think ALL THE TIME about how much i nearly always like sketches better than the complete polished illustration. i am tempted to take the advice of my own intution. let this messy expression of thought go, such as it is, and carry on to the next thing. to living life, not polishing art.
January 2, 2025 at 10:10 PM
i think ALL THE TIME about how much i nearly always like sketches better than the complete polished illustration. i am tempted to take the advice of my own intution. let this messy expression of thought go, such as it is, and carry on to the next thing. to living life, not polishing art.
Have you ever felt something you couldn’t explain?
That quiet feeling deep inside…
that sudden sense that something just feels right.
Maybe it’s your intuition telling you to pause and pay attention.
zurl.co/dCYVu
#JothiRamesh #NaranGuru #Intution
That quiet feeling deep inside…
that sudden sense that something just feels right.
Maybe it’s your intuition telling you to pause and pay attention.
zurl.co/dCYVu
#JothiRamesh #NaranGuru #Intution
September 22, 2026 at 1:13 PM
Have you ever felt something you couldn’t explain?
That quiet feeling deep inside…
that sudden sense that something just feels right.
Maybe it’s your intuition telling you to pause and pay attention.
zurl.co/dCYVu
#JothiRamesh #NaranGuru #Intution
That quiet feeling deep inside…
that sudden sense that something just feels right.
Maybe it’s your intuition telling you to pause and pay attention.
zurl.co/dCYVu
#JothiRamesh #NaranGuru #Intution
Always are! The excuses I'm seeing are so pathetic. My demo lacks political instincts and intution, and they see shiny white man unicorn and go full😍
March 20, 2026 at 12:27 PM
Always are! The excuses I'm seeing are so pathetic. My demo lacks political instincts and intution, and they see shiny white man unicorn and go full😍
"Don't believe your lying eyes(the bloods)" kinda shit. Like, "yeah, on paper you are in menopause, but my endo intution tells me that your E is actually way too high, and it just does not show in the tests."
January 18, 2026 at 3:33 PM
"Don't believe your lying eyes(the bloods)" kinda shit. Like, "yeah, on paper you are in menopause, but my endo intution tells me that your E is actually way too high, and it just does not show in the tests."
Most believe that, wihout Einstein, general relativity would have appeared decades later. Many were involved in developing the mathematics such as Riemann, Ricci etc but the key physical intution was Einstein’s. Hilbert got interested after Einstein lectured on his progress at Gõttingen in June 1915
Let me disagree. General relativity was not really made solely by Einstein: Hilbert, Minkowski, Ricci, and some others later others were very important to shape it as we know today: Penrose, Hawking,...which made the theory not just beautiful but also useful
August 4, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Most believe that, wihout Einstein, general relativity would have appeared decades later. Many were involved in developing the mathematics such as Riemann, Ricci etc but the key physical intution was Einstein’s. Hilbert got interested after Einstein lectured on his progress at Gõttingen in June 1915
Here's the table of contents for my lengthy new piece on how I use LLMs to help me write code simonwillison.net/2025/Mar/11/...
March 11, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Here's the table of contents for my lengthy new piece on how I use LLMs to help me write code simonwillison.net/2025/Mar/11/...
Dream Investigator has passed 500+ downloads on itch which is pretty neat
You too can own this weird, scary, funny game of introspection and judgement-free creation and interpretation (AND OTHERS) by supporting the No ICE in Minnesota bundle!
itch.io/b/3484/no-ic...
You too can own this weird, scary, funny game of introspection and judgement-free creation and interpretation (AND OTHERS) by supporting the No ICE in Minnesota bundle!
itch.io/b/3484/no-ic...
February 23, 2026 at 10:10 PM
Dream Investigator has passed 500+ downloads on itch which is pretty neat
You too can own this weird, scary, funny game of introspection and judgement-free creation and interpretation (AND OTHERS) by supporting the No ICE in Minnesota bundle!
itch.io/b/3484/no-ic...
You too can own this weird, scary, funny game of introspection and judgement-free creation and interpretation (AND OTHERS) by supporting the No ICE in Minnesota bundle!
itch.io/b/3484/no-ic...