#javierblas
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sky.skymarchini.net
its over.
Post Conversation Jennifer Griffin reposted Javier Blas @JavierBlas BREAKING: UK Defence Secretary says that there's "clearer and clearer" signals that "the Iranians may have started mining" the Strait of Hormuz. 11:06 AM · Mar 12, 2026 · 67.4K Views https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2032110885712408899
March 12, 2026 at 4:22 PM
electricfelix.eurosky.social
one day @javierblas.bsky.social will be back here,... hopefully :)
#alwaysbecharging x.com/JavierBlas/s...
September 28, 2026 at 5:47 PM
sky.skymarchini.net
many people have been saying this [to me]
Javier Blas @JavierBlas Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the physical oil market is tighter than the financial oil market is reflecting, particularly for refined products. The scarcity, particularly in Asia, is “not fully priced in the oil futures curve,” he says. #CERAWeek Last edited 10:28 AM · Mar 23, 2026 · 90.7K Views https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2036087678341451798
March 23, 2026 at 5:23 PM
sky.skymarchini.net
Post Conversation Javier Blas @JavierBlas We are probably underestimating the amount of oil demand destruction already ongoing in South-West and South-East Asia. 10:01 AM · Apr 13, 2026 · 15.8K Views https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2043690988128907477
April 13, 2026 at 2:21 PM
sky.skymarchini.net
talking to my friends in the oil industry and at this point they're expecting something to meaningfully break [i.e. some country just runs out of oil] before the market gets it
Javier Blas @JavierBlas The White House is (truly) winning the oil jawboning battle against Tehran — still to be seen if Trump would win the physical oil market war. But to see Brent trading at sub-$100 a barrel (and WTI below $90) after 25 days of Hormuz almost full closure is almost surreal. 8:49 PM · Mar 24, 2026 · 22.1K Views https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2036606341855236604
March 25, 2026 at 1:25 AM
sky.skymarchini.net
my "we only forecast aggregate disruptions for future months through 4q26" tshirt is rai- HOLY FUCK THEY FORECAST PERSIAN GULF SHUT INS THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR???
ost Conversation Javier Blas @JavierBlas The US Energy Information Administration (@EIAgov ) is now forecasting a rather long disruption to crude oil production in the Persian Gulf. (Note this is wellhead production rather than flows via Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't appear to include natural gas liquids, so just crude) Image 12:06 PM · Apr 7, 2026 · 72.3K Views View quotes Sky Marchini Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 1h (Note the @EIAgov forecast/model closed April 2) https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2041548166462406663
April 7, 2026 at 5:29 PM
sky.skymarchini.net
hadn't realized this - trump's waiver is the first time since the revolution that it's been legal to import iranian oil into the USA x.com/JavierBlas/s...
Shashank Joshi reposted Javier Blas @JavierBlas It may only last 60 days (I doubt it; likely would become permanent), but the US Treasury’s waiver is effectively rolling back 40-year plus of American oil sanctions against Iran. Even US refiners are allowed to import Iranian oil and pay for it in greenback!!! Image 10:31 AM · Jun 22, 2026 · 288.1K Views
June 22, 2026 at 5:39 PM
sky.skymarchini.net
fun.
Post Conversation Javier Blas @JavierBlas Where’s the next problem in refined oil products? Top commodity trader Vitol says Atlantic Basin refiners have worked very hard to solve the jet fuel (and diesel) problem — but that’s creating a gasoline issue. 6:49 AM · Jun 3, 2026 · 30.6K Views https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2062124495385592262?s=20
June 3, 2026 at 3:26 PM
sky.skymarchini.net
im starting to wonder if there's no plan at all
Javier Blas @JavierBlas I’m old enough to remember when the Trump administration eased US sanctions on Iranian oil. “In essence, we will be using the Iranian barrels against Tehran to keep the price down,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the time. That was 3 weeks ago. Now a blockade. 5:11 PM · Apr 12, 2026 · 42.1K Views https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2043436947394154900
April 12, 2026 at 10:27 PM
manuelmlm3.bsky.social
Se comienza a hablar ya abiertamente en USA de prohibir exportaciones de diésel.

Si eso ocurriera, la primera perjudicada sería Europa.
x.com/JavierBlas/s...
@amturiel.bsky.social @aaretx.eurosky.social @saraaagesen.bsky.social
Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) on X
US Senate majority leader John Thune says h is "open to considering" an export ban on diesel.
x.com
September 15, 2026 at 6:02 PM
sky.skymarchini.net
Javier Blas @JavierBlas I know we're all looking at oil. But live cattle just rose above $2.5 per lb for the first time (to an all-time high). The BBQ season in America is going to be rather expensive for flipping burgers. Quote Javier Blas @JavierBlas · Apr 8 President Trump's other inflation headache: beef. While everyone is rightly focused on gasoline and oil amid US-Iran war, the meat market isn't giving a respite. Live cattle wholesale prices in Chicago have reached a new all-time high, surpassing last October's peak. Image 11:05 AM · Apr 14, 2026 · 49.5K Views https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2044069578615992645
April 14, 2026 at 4:50 PM
sky.skymarchini.net
Post Conversation Javier Blas @JavierBlas CHART OF THE DAY: At least some positive news to follow the US-Iran conflict. The price of Arabica coffee has plunged to a mear 2-year low on expectations of a large harvest in Brazil. Considering my war-watching high caffeine consumption, that's very good news. Image 9:09 AM · Jun 8, 2026 · 10.8K Views https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2063971740871541056
June 8, 2026 at 2:18 PM
sky.skymarchini.net
ALL ABOARD THE AMERCIAN LNG TRAIN CHOO CHOO
Javier Blas @JavierBlas While the world panics about the loss of Qatari LNG, your reminder that nat gas prices in the Permian (Waha hub) had been negative for 35 consecutive trading days — and counting. And that Henry Hub is at ~$3 per mBtu (compared to $8-$10 in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine) 2:45 PM · Mar 26, 2026 · 11.8K Views https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2037239569116971288
March 26, 2026 at 7:12 PM
sky.skymarchini.net
Javier Blas @JavierBlas Repeat what I said yesterday: Oil bypass pipelines buy time, but don't solve the problem. IEA release buys even more time, but doesn't solve it either. Only re-opening the Strait of Hormuz solves it. But now Trump has a few extra days to finish the war before oil forces him. 10:40 AM · Mar 11, 2026 · 43K Views https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2031742091412361443
March 11, 2026 at 4:13 PM
sky.skymarchini.net
"i want the oil market to be back in contango!" (monkeys paw closes)
Javier Blas @JavierBlas White House top economic adviser Kevin Hassett says the oil futures market agrees Iran is a short-term disruption. Apparently he means the shape of the oil futures curve, which is massively backwardated (or inverted, if you prefer that terminology). Now, who’s going to tell him? 9:46 AM · Apr 3, 2026 · 66.7K Views https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2040063272980815953
April 3, 2026 at 5:28 PM
tylerfromtheinternet.com
oh my god a new nickname??? well, I'm sure that solves that then. good job guys you saved everything.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas We thought we were getting a TACO "Trump Always Chickens Out" But so far we are getting a NACHO "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens" (With appreciation to the trader who told me)
April 29, 2026 at 6:39 PM
leahmcelrath.bsky.social
UK Defence Secretary, per Bloomberg:

There are “clearer and clearer” signals that “the Iranians may have started mining” the Strait of Hormuz.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas X.com BREAKING: UK Defence Secretary says that there's "clearer and clearer" signals that "the Iranians may have started mining" the Strait of Hormuz. 10:06 AM • 3/12/26 • 124K Views
March 12, 2026 at 5:43 PM
robvo.bsky.social
Screenshot of tweet from: Javier Blas @JavierBlas We thought we were getting a TACO "Trump Always Chickens Out" But so far we are getting a NACHO "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens" (With appreciation to the trader who told me) 3:31 AM • Apr 29, 2026
April 30, 2026 at 1:35 AM
acemaxx.bsky.social
#Japan has demonstrated it can shift its oil consumption when it senses its national security is at stake, chart @JavierBlas @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
September 29, 2026 at 5:08 AM
sky.skymarchini.net
hot take: the brent/wti spread isn't as bad as it appears
Post Conversation Javier Blas @JavierBlas A reminder that the Brent May futures contract, currently trading ~$115 a barrel, expires tomorrow. From Wednesday, the front-month futures would be the Brent June contract, currently trading at ~$108 a barrel. Liquidity has already moved from May to June. 9:45 AM · Mar 30, 2026 · 44.8K Views https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2038613636944380253
March 30, 2026 at 4:34 PM
ketanjoshi.co
You can really learn a lot by observing the language of ppl like this

Notice how fossil fuels causing a price spike = "energy" crisis, where renewables merely existing on the same grid as a major blackout = "the first blackout of the green era"
Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 34m CHART OF THE DAY: We have forgotten how bad the European energy crisis of 2022 really was. So let me refresh memories: German electricity prices. It may still get uggly. Worst-case scenarios are horrible. But we aren't there yet. Link to my @Opinion colum in reply. Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 34m lessons from the first blackout of the green era
March 6, 2026 at 1:04 PM
leahmcelrath.bsky.social
China in the mix.
Javier Blas @JavierBlas X.com The Chinese foreign minister has been on the phone with his Iranian counterpart. Who buys more Qatari LNG than anyone else? China. Who buys more Persian Gulf oil than anyone else? China. Who buys all - yes, all -- the Iranian oil? China Last edited 10:20 AM • 3/2/26 • 104K Views
March 2, 2026 at 7:04 PM
manuelmlm3.bsky.social
x.com/JavierBlas/s...
@amturiel.bsky.social @aaretx.eurosky.social
Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) on X
FULL STATEMENT: The G7 ommuniqué on the release of strategic diesel /oil reserves (my own highlights).
x.com
October 2, 2026 at 3:29 PM
ketanjoshi.co
Hasn't put a dent in Javier Blas' vibrating excitement at the possibility of another "green blackout" as he'd call it
Meredith Angwin reposted Javier Blas @JavierBlas For months, the Spanish grid operator (and the government) had been procrastinating about the country’s electricity problems. It was the fault of everyone else but them. Now, urgent measures are needed in 5 days — or else. Will someone assume their responsibility now? Quote Javier Blas @JavierBlas · 21h Spanish grid asks for urgent measures (to be implemented in 5 days) to stabilise the electricity network as voltage swings again sharply (the situation is similar in early autumn to spring during the blackout). It warns the grid’s safety is at risk. https://cnmc.es/sites/default/files/editor_contenidos/Energia/Consulta%20Publica/1_DCOOR_DE_008_25_Resolucion%20.pdf
October 9, 2025 at 5:09 PM
sky.skymarchini.net
Javier Blas @JavierBlas I've seen things, you people wouldn't believe, WTI on fire at minus $40 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, I watched billions evaporate in the dark of negative prices… 3:09 PM · Apr 20, 2025 · 124.7K Views
April 21, 2025 at 1:26 AM