#longerrun
LightNews LightNews
runnerwolf.bsky.social
Run from today #indoortrack #distancerunner #longerrun
February 17, 2025 at 9:34 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Deutsche Bank is thinking about ways to overhaul the Fed's controversial quarterly forecasting operation.
Over the coming months, we are set to learn what revisions the Fed intends to make to its communications strategies, including tweaks to the SEP. In this piece, we build a case for shifting the forecast horizons in the SEP from fixed calendar years to rolling windows. We argue that 12-month and 24-month windows could be preferred to shorter (e.g., 6 month) and longer (e.g., 36 month and “longerrun”) variations. This structure could avoid some of the shortfalls of the current approach, including reduced flexibility in near-term policy, the potential to signal too much data dependence, and over-emphasis on unobserved and hard-toestimate variables such as the longer-run dot.
October 22, 2025 at 1:36 PM