Census and HUD reported June 2026 new-home sales at a 628,000 annual rate, with inventory still elevated and prices lower than May and the prior year.

Ontario’s temporary enhanced HST rebate for qualifying new homes purchased before April 1, 2027, has begun to positively impact low-rise new-home sales in the GTA. According to a BILD report, April saw low-rise sales surpass their 10-year average for the first time in three years, though overall new-home sales remained 55% below the 10-year average. The rebate offers up to $130,000 in combined HST relief, with full benefits applying to homes under $1.5 million. Industry experts note the rebate is a game-changer, reducing tax costs for buyers and improving mortgage qualification. However, challenges remain, including pent-up demand and sluggish condo sales. The program’s temporary nature may drive stronger market activity in the fall as buyers prepare for the closing window. Experts emphasize that while the rebate addresses affordability, long-term solutions require increased housing supply and reduced development charges to sustain lower prices.

June sales rose 1.6%, but the move sits inside a wide error band. Builder incentives are sustaining volume while testing margins.