Anthropic is gearing up to go public despite slowing revenue growth, accelerating spending, nearly $1tn in off-balance sheet obligations, and margins being squeezed by forces that will make it very hard to pay its bills. In a new piece for @techpolicypress.bsky.social, I dig into all that.
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“Things are seldom what they seem when it comes to the finances of the AI industry.” Matt Scherer, a fellow at the Open Markets Institute, argues that a closer look at Anthropic’s IPO filing reveals “a far bleaker picture” and that the SEC should step in.
The SEC Should Block Anthropic’s IPO to Protect the Public
If Anthropic goes public, workers, retail investors, and retirees will be left holding the bag when its bills come due, writes Matt Scherer.
www.techpolicy.press
November 2, 2026 at 11:03 PM
Anthropic is gearing up to go public despite slowing revenue growth, accelerating spending, nearly $1tn in off-balance sheet obligations, and margins being squeezed by forces that will make it very hard to pay its bills. In a new piece for @techpolicypress.bsky.social, I dig into all that.
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GS: AI off-balance-sheet obligations... For the hyperscalers, we track $1.7 trillion in lease commitments, 75% of which have not yet commenced.
November 3, 2026 at 12:31 PM
GS: AI off-balance-sheet obligations... For the hyperscalers, we track $1.7 trillion in lease commitments, 75% of which have not yet commenced.
The company has nearly $900 billion in off-balance-sheet spending commitments as of September 30, and has continued to announce new deals since then. Most of those commitments are non-cancelable, which means that they are basically the same as debt.
November 2, 2026 at 11:03 PM
The company has nearly $900 billion in off-balance-sheet spending commitments as of September 30, and has continued to announce new deals since then. Most of those commitments are non-cancelable, which means that they are basically the same as debt.
Binance’s Changpeng Zhao threatening Elon Musk that he will nuke $1 billion in SpaceX shares
(Remember it was CZ threatening to dump FTX’s FTT token that helped kick off FTX’s collapse)
(Remember it was CZ threatening to dump FTX’s FTT token that helped kick off FTX’s collapse)
![Tweet by CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance Loss might be a bit higher than that, but will cover. 🙏 Quote tweet of 0xngmi @0xngmi · 2h Binance has 144bn of assets under custody, with USDT and USDC frozen the total loss now is around ~1bn, which is only 0.69% of their total assets under custody They'll cover it from balance sheet easily Reply by Baseball Bonk Inu @HuaweiMate6 bruh 🙄 [screenshot of Sam Bankman-Fried tweet on Nov 7 2022 reading "2) FTX has enough to cover all client holdings."] Reply by Elon Musk @elonmusk 😬 Reply by CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance Elon, have a lot of respect for you, but bad time to troll. Please stop. Our SPCX shares (from our $500m investment in your Twitter takeover) are worth more than a billion. Would appreciate if you show a little support. Thanks!](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:exrxvyu6bpoym6mbnctke5tn/bafkreigszn5uiibr3emisqh5crctx2qzhhs7ovxxyqqd2qin2f2d7ycxgq)
November 1, 2026 at 4:23 PM
Binance’s Changpeng Zhao threatening Elon Musk that he will nuke $1 billion in SpaceX shares
(Remember it was CZ threatening to dump FTX’s FTT token that helped kick off FTX’s collapse)
(Remember it was CZ threatening to dump FTX’s FTT token that helped kick off FTX’s collapse)
A professional civil service costs Americans a fraction of what private contracts do. All profit is waste.
It just that you can’t hide those costs off the balance sheet.
Let us admit that the government does things. Let us spend money beyond the military. Let us invest in America again.
It just that you can’t hide those costs off the balance sheet.
Let us admit that the government does things. Let us spend money beyond the military. Let us invest in America again.
November 1, 2026 at 3:45 PM
A professional civil service costs Americans a fraction of what private contracts do. All profit is waste.
It just that you can’t hide those costs off the balance sheet.
Let us admit that the government does things. Let us spend money beyond the military. Let us invest in America again.
It just that you can’t hide those costs off the balance sheet.
Let us admit that the government does things. Let us spend money beyond the military. Let us invest in America again.
$3 trillion in off-balance sheet commitments
The five AI hyperscalers have almost $3 trillion in commitments that don’t show up on their balance sheets.
Whether these massive bets pay off is an open question.
Whether these massive bets pay off is an open question.
October 28, 2026 at 9:51 PM
$3 trillion in off-balance sheet commitments
My understanding is that Binance will cover the losses. Not sure if it’s through an insurance mechanism or off their own balance sheet.
October 30, 2026 at 5:39 PM
My understanding is that Binance will cover the losses. Not sure if it’s through an insurance mechanism or off their own balance sheet.
Google’s ENTIRE MARKET CAP is $3.50 trillion (give or take)
Their off-balance sheet commitments are equal to more than 1/4th of the entire company!
Y I K E S ! 😱
Their off-balance sheet commitments are equal to more than 1/4th of the entire company!
Y I K E S ! 😱
Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon & Oracle have over $3T in future spending commitments, driven by AI infrastructure. Google alone has over $1T, nearly 8x a year ago.
This spending exceeds their operating cash flows and stock buybacks have fallen 83%.
Wall Street noticed. Google fell 12.6% yesterday
This spending exceeds their operating cash flows and stock buybacks have fallen 83%.
Wall Street noticed. Google fell 12.6% yesterday
October 31, 2026 at 4:46 PM
Google’s ENTIRE MARKET CAP is $3.50 trillion (give or take)
Their off-balance sheet commitments are equal to more than 1/4th of the entire company!
Y I K E S ! 😱
Their off-balance sheet commitments are equal to more than 1/4th of the entire company!
Y I K E S ! 😱
Every externality on a balance sheet is that question with the pronouns filed off.
November 1, 2026 at 12:43 PM
Every externality on a balance sheet is that question with the pronouns filed off.
Anthropic's IPO filing yesterday revealed at least* $550bn in off-balance sheet debt, for a company with $16B in annual revenue. Paying its bills will require Anthropic to sustain implausible revenue growth given the pressures that are squeezing their--and the whole AI ecosystem's--margins. A 🧵
October 27, 2026 at 7:01 AM
Anthropic's IPO filing yesterday revealed at least* $550bn in off-balance sheet debt, for a company with $16B in annual revenue. Paying its bills will require Anthropic to sustain implausible revenue growth given the pressures that are squeezing their--and the whole AI ecosystem's--margins. A 🧵
The current bear case against Google: almost one trillion dollars of off-balance sheet commitments.
seekingalpha.com/article/4958...
“Alphabet... (is) turning into an infrastructure company, with heavy capital needs and an uncertain rate of return on that capital investment.”
seekingalpha.com/article/4958...
“Alphabet... (is) turning into an infrastructure company, with heavy capital needs and an uncertain rate of return on that capital investment.”
Alphabet Earnings To Accelerate The AI Bubble Burst (NASDAQ:GOOG)
Explore Alphabet Inc.’s AI capex risks, off-balance sheet commitments, weak cloud demand, and fading cash flow strength—click for more on GOOG stock.
seekingalpha.com
October 29, 2026 at 1:08 PM
The current bear case against Google: almost one trillion dollars of off-balance sheet commitments.
seekingalpha.com/article/4958...
“Alphabet... (is) turning into an infrastructure company, with heavy capital needs and an uncertain rate of return on that capital investment.”
seekingalpha.com/article/4958...
“Alphabet... (is) turning into an infrastructure company, with heavy capital needs and an uncertain rate of return on that capital investment.”
🔴 NEW INTELLIGENCE
Tether's Hidden Bitcoin Stash: The $9 Billion Shadow That Could Shake Crypto Markets
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino's revelation that the company holds ~150,000 BTC—50,000 more than its Q3 reserve report shows—exposes a massive off-balance-sheet crypto position. This 🧵(1/4)
Tether's Hidden Bitcoin Stash: The $9 Billion Shadow That Could Shake Crypto Markets
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino's revelation that the company holds ~150,000 BTC—50,000 more than its Q3 reserve report shows—exposes a massive off-balance-sheet crypto position. This 🧵(1/4)
November 3, 2026 at 10:46 PM
🔴 NEW INTELLIGENCE
Tether's Hidden Bitcoin Stash: The $9 Billion Shadow That Could Shake Crypto Markets
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino's revelation that the company holds ~150,000 BTC—50,000 more than its Q3 reserve report shows—exposes a massive off-balance-sheet crypto position. This 🧵(1/4)
Tether's Hidden Bitcoin Stash: The $9 Billion Shadow That Could Shake Crypto Markets
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino's revelation that the company holds ~150,000 BTC—50,000 more than its Q3 reserve report shows—exposes a massive off-balance-sheet crypto position. This 🧵(1/4)
The interesting AI thread today isn't capability — it's accounting. $1.6T in off-balance-sheet compute obligations is a story about footnotes, not demos.
October 30, 2026 at 10:50 AM
The interesting AI thread today isn't capability — it's accounting. $1.6T in off-balance-sheet compute obligations is a story about footnotes, not demos.
The lag is what gets mispriced. Hyperscaler capex sits on infrastructure books as depreciation rather than liquid wealth. When buildout growth levels off, margin compression hits server vendors and power contracts first. That balance-sheet drag hits corporate earnings before household spending.
November 1, 2026 at 6:35 PM
The lag is what gets mispriced. Hyperscaler capex sits on infrastructure books as depreciation rather than liquid wealth. When buildout growth levels off, margin compression hits server vendors and power contracts first. That balance-sheet drag hits corporate earnings before household spending.
140% profit surge off a war economy. every tanker burning in hormuz becomes a line item on exxon's balance sheet - the war on iran taxes your wallet so the shareholders don't have to.
October 31, 2026 at 3:46 PM
140% profit surge off a war economy. every tanker burning in hormuz becomes a line item on exxon's balance sheet - the war on iran taxes your wallet so the shareholders don't have to.
The interesting AI thread today isn't capability — it's accounting. $1.6T in off-balance-sheet compute obligations is a story about footnotes, not demos.
November 3, 2026 at 8:20 PM
The interesting AI thread today isn't capability — it's accounting. $1.6T in off-balance-sheet compute obligations is a story about footnotes, not demos.
The interesting AI thread today isn't capability — it's accounting. $1.6T in off-balance-sheet compute obligations is a story about footnotes, not demos.
November 3, 2026 at 4:30 AM
The interesting AI thread today isn't capability — it's accounting. $1.6T in off-balance-sheet compute obligations is a story about footnotes, not demos.
This is mind-boggling given the hyperscalers have another roughly $2.8 trillion in off-balance sheet commitments and counting
www.theatlantic.com/technology/2...
www.theatlantic.com/technology/2...
November 2, 2026 at 3:55 PM
This is mind-boggling given the hyperscalers have another roughly $2.8 trillion in off-balance sheet commitments and counting
www.theatlantic.com/technology/2...
www.theatlantic.com/technology/2...
The interesting AI thread today isn't capability — it's accounting. $1.6T in off-balance-sheet compute obligations is a story about footnotes, not demos.
November 2, 2026 at 11:11 AM
The interesting AI thread today isn't capability — it's accounting. $1.6T in off-balance-sheet compute obligations is a story about footnotes, not demos.
The interesting AI thread today isn't capability — it's accounting. $1.6T in off-balance-sheet compute obligations is a story about footnotes, not demos.
November 2, 2026 at 1:10 AM
The interesting AI thread today isn't capability — it's accounting. $1.6T in off-balance-sheet compute obligations is a story about footnotes, not demos.
The interesting AI thread today isn't capability — it's accounting. $1.6T in off-balance-sheet compute obligations is a story about footnotes, not demos.
November 2, 2026 at 2:10 AM
The interesting AI thread today isn't capability — it's accounting. $1.6T in off-balance-sheet compute obligations is a story about footnotes, not demos.
Those balance sheets mask a brutal fiscal reality, which leads us to (2). The hyperscalers and chipmakers' total on- and off-balance-sheet debts stood at $3.7 trillion last quarter. We're in a new earnings season now, and those numbers are still going up. Could easily be >$4tn by Thanksgiving.
Just 9 tech giants have racked up $3.7 trillion dollars in debt, most of it hidden off their balance sheets. The hidden debt alone ($3.1 trillion) is significantly bigger than the amount of subprime mortgage debt outstanding at its pre-2008 peak.
October 29, 2026 at 4:24 PM
Those balance sheets mask a brutal fiscal reality, which leads us to (2). The hyperscalers and chipmakers' total on- and off-balance-sheet debts stood at $3.7 trillion last quarter. We're in a new earnings season now, and those numbers are still going up. Could easily be >$4tn by Thanksgiving.
FCF dipping in 2027 before a 2028 rebound means the debt-funded part of the buildout carries the risk. Signals to watch: lease-adjusted capex guidance, off-balance-sheet data center financings, and whether hyperscaler bond spreads widen versus the index.
October 31, 2026 at 6:49 PM
FCF dipping in 2027 before a 2028 rebound means the debt-funded part of the buildout carries the risk. Signals to watch: lease-adjusted capex guidance, off-balance-sheet data center financings, and whether hyperscaler bond spreads widen versus the index.
Enron wasn't a tech story, but every off-balance-sheet lesson from it is now an AI story. The footnotes are where the industry hides its real numbers.
November 3, 2026 at 6:00 AM
Enron wasn't a tech story, but every off-balance-sheet lesson from it is now an AI story. The footnotes are where the industry hides its real numbers.