Mamdani way overperforming in Manhattan, one of those sources says
Sources in both camps believe this is going to be tight, tight, tight.
June 25, 2025 at 1:45 AM
Mamdani way overperforming in Manhattan, one of those sources says
March 11, 2025 at 8:51 AM
Overperforming.
At the NIH, posters of women and scientists of color have been taken down. Shared by @ivancalcantara.bsky.social on X. 2/x
February 9, 2025 at 1:11 AM
Overperforming.
“Now about 40 incumbent Republicans tomorrow morning are terrified. Terrified,” says former Republican congressman David Jolly on Democrats overperforming in the Florida special elections.
April 2, 2025 at 1:02 AM
“Now about 40 incumbent Republicans tomorrow morning are terrified. Terrified,” says former Republican congressman David Jolly on Democrats overperforming in the Florida special elections.
"Overperforming in elections is likely to alienate swing voters."
—Matt Yglesias
—Matt Yglesias
"Democratic voters fail to realize that the best way to appeal to voters is to elect Republicans."
—Ezra Klein
—Ezra Klein
November 5, 2025 at 1:42 AM
"Overperforming in elections is likely to alienate swing voters."
—Matt Yglesias
—Matt Yglesias
Dems overperforming by 20 points in Western Iowa:
August 27, 2025 at 2:40 AM
Dems overperforming by 20 points in Western Iowa:
62% of the vote in, Dem Garrett McGuire is currently overperforming by 18 points :)
January 21, 2026 at 12:25 AM
62% of the vote in, Dem Garrett McGuire is currently overperforming by 18 points :)
Dems are now overperforming the 2024 lean of red districts by, uh, 30+ points in special elections
I’m not sure “apocalyptic” is sufficient to describe how the environment is starting to look for the GOP in November
I’m not sure “apocalyptic” is sufficient to describe how the environment is starting to look for the GOP in November
RESULT: Democrat Chasity Martinez wins a special election for a legislative seat in Louisiana, 62% to 38%.
This was a district that Trump carried by 13% last year, so a big overperformance by Dems, but the seat was already Dem-held.
This was a district that Trump carried by 13% last year, so a big overperformance by Dems, but the seat was already Dem-held.
February 8, 2026 at 3:18 AM
Dems are now overperforming the 2024 lean of red districts by, uh, 30+ points in special elections
I’m not sure “apocalyptic” is sufficient to describe how the environment is starting to look for the GOP in November
I’m not sure “apocalyptic” is sufficient to describe how the environment is starting to look for the GOP in November
Democrats have been consistently overperforming. Trump world sees the warning signs.
That doesn’t mean we coast. It means we vote. Show up, flood the polls, and shut down the 2026 midterm games before they start.
That doesn’t mean we coast. It means we vote. Show up, flood the polls, and shut down the 2026 midterm games before they start.
February 5, 2026 at 7:33 PM
Democrats have been consistently overperforming. Trump world sees the warning signs.
That doesn’t mean we coast. It means we vote. Show up, flood the polls, and shut down the 2026 midterm games before they start.
That doesn’t mean we coast. It means we vote. Show up, flood the polls, and shut down the 2026 midterm games before they start.
THE GOP PANIC IS REAL
Not only are Democrats consistently overperforming, they have flipped 30 state legislative seats since Trump was elected.
Republicans have flipped ZERO.
If this trend holds, Democrats could take back the House and the Senate by a wide margin.
Not only are Democrats consistently overperforming, they have flipped 30 state legislative seats since Trump was elected.
Republicans have flipped ZERO.
If this trend holds, Democrats could take back the House and the Senate by a wide margin.
March 25, 2026 at 11:38 PM
THE GOP PANIC IS REAL
Not only are Democrats consistently overperforming, they have flipped 30 state legislative seats since Trump was elected.
Republicans have flipped ZERO.
If this trend holds, Democrats could take back the House and the Senate by a wide margin.
Not only are Democrats consistently overperforming, they have flipped 30 state legislative seats since Trump was elected.
Republicans have flipped ZERO.
If this trend holds, Democrats could take back the House and the Senate by a wide margin.
Steve Kornacki shows Mikie Sherrill overperforming, while Jack Ciattarelli is underperforming Trump
November 5, 2025 at 1:32 AM
Steve Kornacki shows Mikie Sherrill overperforming, while Jack Ciattarelli is underperforming Trump
Since the general election, Democrats have been overperforming — sometimes by 30-40 points. Meanwhile, Republicans are struggling: Trump is -18 on the economy, -30 on inflation — the issues voters care most about.
It's only going to continue too.
It's only going to continue too.
June 19, 2025 at 10:39 PM
Since the general election, Democrats have been overperforming — sometimes by 30-40 points. Meanwhile, Republicans are struggling: Trump is -18 on the economy, -30 on inflation — the issues voters care most about.
It's only going to continue too.
It's only going to continue too.
NEWS: Wisconsin Dem primary for governor looking extremely close between Francesca Hong and David Crowley.
Crowley is vastly overperforming expectations and pre-election polls—some of which showed Hong with a 20+ point lead.
This race is TIGHT!!!
Crowley is vastly overperforming expectations and pre-election polls—some of which showed Hong with a 20+ point lead.
This race is TIGHT!!!
August 12, 2026 at 1:52 AM
NEWS: Wisconsin Dem primary for governor looking extremely close between Francesca Hong and David Crowley.
Crowley is vastly overperforming expectations and pre-election polls—some of which showed Hong with a 20+ point lead.
This race is TIGHT!!!
Crowley is vastly overperforming expectations and pre-election polls—some of which showed Hong with a 20+ point lead.
This race is TIGHT!!!
Trump is babbling. Democrats are winning.
Overperforming by 37 points in tonight’s Pennsylvania House special election.
Overperforming by 37 points in tonight’s Pennsylvania House special election.
February 25, 2026 at 3:58 AM
Trump is babbling. Democrats are winning.
Overperforming by 37 points in tonight’s Pennsylvania House special election.
Overperforming by 37 points in tonight’s Pennsylvania House special election.
this is social media but it's also the growth of legal sports gambling - players are regularly getting abuse and threats for 'underperforming' - or in some cases *overperforming.*
This has got to stop. We have to reckon with the damage that online social media abuse is doing to us. I have been on the receiving end ot this shit and it’s absolutely devastating and terrifying. www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/...
McCullers gets security in wake of online threats
After receiving online death threats over his performance, Lance McCullers Jr., who has two young daughters, worked with the Astros to hire 24-hour security for his family.
www.espn.com
May 30, 2025 at 7:39 PM
this is social media but it's also the growth of legal sports gambling - players are regularly getting abuse and threats for 'underperforming' - or in some cases *overperforming.*
yeah we’re going from “Dems are overperforming in a way that tracks with a normal midterm election favoring the opposition party” to “they overperformed by HOW MUCH that has to be a typo”
We're all desensitized to Democratic overperformances in special elections, but there does seem to have been a pretty significant shift in the past month
Dems are now overperforming the 2024 lean of red districts by, uh, 30+ points in special elections
I’m not sure “apocalyptic” is sufficient to describe how the environment is starting to look for the GOP in November
I’m not sure “apocalyptic” is sufficient to describe how the environment is starting to look for the GOP in November
February 8, 2026 at 3:41 AM
yeah we’re going from “Dems are overperforming in a way that tracks with a normal midterm election favoring the opposition party” to “they overperformed by HOW MUCH that has to be a typo”
OK, with 72% in Dems are collectively overperforming by about 20 points now.
March 11, 2026 at 12:36 AM
OK, with 72% in Dems are collectively overperforming by about 20 points now.
Harris won AZ-07 by 22 points via @the-downballot.com, so right now she’s overperforming by 21 points!
September 24, 2025 at 3:15 AM
Harris won AZ-07 by 22 points via @the-downballot.com, so right now she’s overperforming by 21 points!
The two Democratic candidates running for supreme court in Michigan are *well* overperforming the rest of their ticket. No call yet, but if it holds this would allow Democrats to hold and expand their majority on this court.
November 6, 2024 at 2:32 AM
The two Democratic candidates running for supreme court in Michigan are *well* overperforming the rest of their ticket. No call yet, but if it holds this would allow Democrats to hold and expand their majority on this court.
A note that Jones is underperforming Spanberger in the data we have, but still overperforming Harris.
November 5, 2025 at 12:19 AM
A note that Jones is underperforming Spanberger in the data we have, but still overperforming Harris.
Realistically, Trump has been consistently overperforming relative to 2020. Hard to see Harris breaking that pattern to sweep WI, PA and MI.
November 6, 2024 at 4:19 AM
Realistically, Trump has been consistently overperforming relative to 2020. Hard to see Harris breaking that pattern to sweep WI, PA and MI.
Rep-elect Walkinshaw’s victory continues the dominant trend we’re seeing so far this year—Democrats are massively overperforming in nearly every race.
Congratulations to @jameswalkinshaw.bsky.social!
Congratulations to @jameswalkinshaw.bsky.social!
September 10, 2025 at 12:03 AM
Rep-elect Walkinshaw’s victory continues the dominant trend we’re seeing so far this year—Democrats are massively overperforming in nearly every race.
Congratulations to @jameswalkinshaw.bsky.social!
Congratulations to @jameswalkinshaw.bsky.social!
Democrats are overperforming and WINNING in races up and down the ballot all over the country.
November is coming.
November is coming.
NEW: This past Saturday, Democrat Quentin Wiltz was elected mayor of Pearland, Texas, FLIPPING a Republican-leaning suburb BLUE.
This is huge. Congrats, Mayor-elect Wiltz!
This is huge. Congrats, Mayor-elect Wiltz!
May 4, 2026 at 3:53 PM
Democrats are overperforming and WINNING in races up and down the ballot all over the country.
November is coming.
November is coming.
Just another case of Libs overperforming in a low-turnout special election.
May 8, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Just another case of Libs overperforming in a low-turnout special election.
From New Jersey to Minnesota, from Georgia to Virginia, from Pennsylvania to California, Democrats have been overperforming in race after race all year. And tonight we added Florida and Georgia (again) to that list with margins that should set off alarm bells for Republicans everywhere.
December 10, 2025 at 3:40 AM
From New Jersey to Minnesota, from Georgia to Virginia, from Pennsylvania to California, Democrats have been overperforming in race after race all year. And tonight we added Florida and Georgia (again) to that list with margins that should set off alarm bells for Republicans everywhere.