Kornacki calculating win probability live on air, unreal
November 4, 2026 at 6:12 AM
Kornacki calculating win probability live on air, unreal
statistically speaking there’s a higher probability that it could happen tomorrow
November 3, 2026 at 5:02 AM
statistically speaking there’s a higher probability that it could happen tomorrow
What is the probability that two closet cases would wind up talking about another man's ass? Yes, 100%!
November 2, 2026 at 6:03 PM
What is the probability that two closet cases would wind up talking about another man's ass? Yes, 100%!
Shut the fuck up rahm emanuel I'm calculating win probability
Kornacki calculating win probability live on air, unreal
November 4, 2026 at 6:14 AM
Shut the fuck up rahm emanuel I'm calculating win probability
Needly now showing a 95% probability of Dems taking the Senate.
November 4, 2026 at 2:36 AM
Needly now showing a 95% probability of Dems taking the Senate.
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (11/3): FINAL UPDATE
Our final forecast gives Democrats an 84% probability of winning the House, with a seat total of 241.
In the Senate, Democrats have a 64% probability of winning a majority of seats, with a projected total of 52 seats.
Our final forecast gives Democrats an 84% probability of winning the House, with a seat total of 241.
In the Senate, Democrats have a 64% probability of winning a majority of seats, with a projected total of 52 seats.
November 3, 2026 at 5:38 PM
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (11/3): FINAL UPDATE
Our final forecast gives Democrats an 84% probability of winning the House, with a seat total of 241.
In the Senate, Democrats have a 64% probability of winning a majority of seats, with a projected total of 52 seats.
Our final forecast gives Democrats an 84% probability of winning the House, with a seat total of 241.
In the Senate, Democrats have a 64% probability of winning a majority of seats, with a projected total of 52 seats.
Jamie Davis within 5 and LA-4 goes to a runoff
(roughly even probability, medium confidence)
(roughly even probability, medium confidence)
Guys I don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow. I don't trust any of the polls. But I still think it's good to publicly say what you think is gonna happen just for the sake of everyone being on the record. It clarifies thinking to have to make actual predictions.
November 3, 2026 at 5:37 AM
Jamie Davis within 5 and LA-4 goes to a runoff
(roughly even probability, medium confidence)
(roughly even probability, medium confidence)
Max Miller DUI probability 95%
November 4, 2026 at 5:21 AM
Max Miller DUI probability 95%
i am convinced this is normal exponential decay, it is the probability that you have directly noticed something he is doing directly causing you a problem in your life
One of the claims I keep seeing is "nobody minded Trump until gas prices went up" and certainly that marginal voter exists, but on the whole that is not quite right - after an initial crash, his numbers have ticked down at a steady, regular rate.
People started losing patience before gas prices.
People started losing patience before gas prices.
November 2, 2026 at 2:48 AM
i am convinced this is normal exponential decay, it is the probability that you have directly noticed something he is doing directly causing you a problem in your life
Watching the win-probability needle for my fantasy team falling is giving me Pre-TSD.
November 3, 2026 at 1:43 AM
Watching the win-probability needle for my fantasy team falling is giving me Pre-TSD.
Setting up a needle probability of me libbing out
November 3, 2026 at 11:57 PM
Setting up a needle probability of me libbing out
Probability that Kevin McCarthy kills himself tonight?
November 4, 2026 at 1:24 AM
Probability that Kevin McCarthy kills himself tonight?
The New York Times is projecting a 80% win probability for Mina Harker!
numbers coming out of The Castle are insane. this is a Dracula +25 district
November 4, 2026 at 1:25 AM
The New York Times is projecting a 80% win probability for Mina Harker!
"Buy election outcomes with >90% probability 30 days out" has small positive returns lol
November 3, 2026 at 4:04 PM
"Buy election outcomes with >90% probability 30 days out" has small positive returns lol
November 4, 2026 at 3:37 AM
With high probability, if you’re reading this, you’re closer to space than to Belgium.
October 31, 2026 at 9:57 PM
With high probability, if you’re reading this, you’re closer to space than to Belgium.
Democrat James Talarico is favored in the final edition of the 2026 DDHQ Forecast.
Talarico has a 60% win probability of winning the Texas Senate race, and leads in our polling average by 3.6%.
Talarico has a 60% win probability of winning the Texas Senate race, and leads in our polling average by 3.6%.
November 3, 2026 at 8:35 PM
Democrat James Talarico is favored in the final edition of the 2026 DDHQ Forecast.
Talarico has a 60% win probability of winning the Texas Senate race, and leads in our polling average by 3.6%.
Talarico has a 60% win probability of winning the Texas Senate race, and leads in our polling average by 3.6%.
the probability here is very low, but it’s still nonzero
November 3, 2026 at 7:23 PM
the probability here is very low, but it’s still nonzero
Turning on the news to watch analysis from people who don’t understand how math or probability work
November 3, 2026 at 11:24 PM
Turning on the news to watch analysis from people who don’t understand how math or probability work
BFF Baby Daddy and I are cracking up over the (decent) probability that Ken Paxton just stole most of Musk’s contribution.
November 5, 2026 at 12:17 AM
BFF Baby Daddy and I are cracking up over the (decent) probability that Ken Paxton just stole most of Musk’s contribution.
I prefer a slot machine so I can just be screwed by the vagaries of probability theory
November 4, 2026 at 8:22 AM
I prefer a slot machine so I can just be screwed by the vagaries of probability theory
As expected Subtype 5, which resembles ME/CFS, has the smallest probability of improvement.
November 2, 2026 at 11:10 PM
As expected Subtype 5, which resembles ME/CFS, has the smallest probability of improvement.
My favorite thing about that promo is that all the numbers do add up, like he's playing Calvinball with the concepts of probability but his numbers do add up
November 3, 2026 at 12:52 AM
My favorite thing about that promo is that all the numbers do add up, like he's playing Calvinball with the concepts of probability but his numbers do add up