statistically speaking there’s a higher probability that it could happen tomorrow
November 3, 2026 at 5:02 AM
statistically speaking there’s a higher probability that it could happen tomorrow
What is the probability that two closet cases would wind up talking about another man's ass? Yes, 100%!
November 2, 2026 at 6:03 PM
What is the probability that two closet cases would wind up talking about another man's ass? Yes, 100%!
The same Marty O’Donell who is going to get CRUSHED in his race
October 30, 2026 at 10:27 PM
The same Marty O’Donell who is going to get CRUSHED in his race
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (11/3): FINAL UPDATE
Our final forecast gives Democrats an 84% probability of winning the House, with a seat total of 241.
In the Senate, Democrats have a 64% probability of winning a majority of seats, with a projected total of 52 seats.
Our final forecast gives Democrats an 84% probability of winning the House, with a seat total of 241.
In the Senate, Democrats have a 64% probability of winning a majority of seats, with a projected total of 52 seats.
November 3, 2026 at 5:38 PM
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (11/3): FINAL UPDATE
Our final forecast gives Democrats an 84% probability of winning the House, with a seat total of 241.
In the Senate, Democrats have a 64% probability of winning a majority of seats, with a projected total of 52 seats.
Our final forecast gives Democrats an 84% probability of winning the House, with a seat total of 241.
In the Senate, Democrats have a 64% probability of winning a majority of seats, with a projected total of 52 seats.
i am convinced this is normal exponential decay, it is the probability that you have directly noticed something he is doing directly causing you a problem in your life
One of the claims I keep seeing is "nobody minded Trump until gas prices went up" and certainly that marginal voter exists, but on the whole that is not quite right - after an initial crash, his numbers have ticked down at a steady, regular rate.
People started losing patience before gas prices.
People started losing patience before gas prices.
November 2, 2026 at 2:48 AM
i am convinced this is normal exponential decay, it is the probability that you have directly noticed something he is doing directly causing you a problem in your life
Watching the win-probability needle for my fantasy team falling is giving me Pre-TSD.
November 3, 2026 at 1:43 AM
Watching the win-probability needle for my fantasy team falling is giving me Pre-TSD.
Jamie Davis within 5 and LA-4 goes to a runoff
(roughly even probability, medium confidence)
(roughly even probability, medium confidence)
Guys I don't know what's gonna happen tomorrow. I don't trust any of the polls. But I still think it's good to publicly say what you think is gonna happen just for the sake of everyone being on the record. It clarifies thinking to have to make actual predictions.
November 3, 2026 at 5:37 AM
Jamie Davis within 5 and LA-4 goes to a runoff
(roughly even probability, medium confidence)
(roughly even probability, medium confidence)
With high probability, if you’re reading this, you’re closer to space than to Belgium.
October 31, 2026 at 9:57 PM
With high probability, if you’re reading this, you’re closer to space than to Belgium.
"Buy election outcomes with >90% probability 30 days out" has small positive returns lol
November 3, 2026 at 4:04 PM
"Buy election outcomes with >90% probability 30 days out" has small positive returns lol
the probability here is very low, but it’s still nonzero
November 3, 2026 at 7:23 PM
the probability here is very low, but it’s still nonzero
Democrat James Talarico is favored in the final edition of the 2026 DDHQ Forecast.
Talarico has a 60% win probability of winning the Texas Senate race, and leads in our polling average by 3.6%.
Talarico has a 60% win probability of winning the Texas Senate race, and leads in our polling average by 3.6%.
November 3, 2026 at 8:35 PM
Democrat James Talarico is favored in the final edition of the 2026 DDHQ Forecast.
Talarico has a 60% win probability of winning the Texas Senate race, and leads in our polling average by 3.6%.
Talarico has a 60% win probability of winning the Texas Senate race, and leads in our polling average by 3.6%.
As expected Subtype 5, which resembles ME/CFS, has the smallest probability of improvement.
November 2, 2026 at 11:10 PM
As expected Subtype 5, which resembles ME/CFS, has the smallest probability of improvement.
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (11/2): Kansas
Democrat Adam Hamilton is now narrowly favored to win.
Our forecast gives Hamilton a 51% win probability. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932.
Democrat Adam Hamilton is now narrowly favored to win.
Our forecast gives Hamilton a 51% win probability. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932.
November 2, 2026 at 5:48 PM
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE (11/2): Kansas
Democrat Adam Hamilton is now narrowly favored to win.
Our forecast gives Hamilton a 51% win probability. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932.
Democrat Adam Hamilton is now narrowly favored to win.
Our forecast gives Hamilton a 51% win probability. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932.
My favorite thing about that promo is that all the numbers do add up, like he's playing Calvinball with the concepts of probability but his numbers do add up
November 3, 2026 at 12:52 AM
My favorite thing about that promo is that all the numbers do add up, like he's playing Calvinball with the concepts of probability but his numbers do add up
EVERCORE:
“.. Our updated 60% probability that Democrats take the Senate is split between a 40% chance of a precarious 51-seat majority and a 20% chance of 52+ seats.”
“.. Our updated 60% probability that Democrats take the Senate is split between a 40% chance of a precarious 51-seat majority and a 20% chance of 52+ seats.”
October 30, 2026 at 9:25 PM
EVERCORE:
“.. Our updated 60% probability that Democrats take the Senate is split between a 40% chance of a precarious 51-seat majority and a 20% chance of 52+ seats.”
“.. Our updated 60% probability that Democrats take the Senate is split between a 40% chance of a precarious 51-seat majority and a 20% chance of 52+ seats.”
need nate silver to calculate the probability of me getting a text back
November 3, 2026 at 8:01 PM
need nate silver to calculate the probability of me getting a text back
It would be fun to assign a probability on each one of those conditionals.
November 2, 2026 at 5:59 PM
It would be fun to assign a probability on each one of those conditionals.
This and people not understanding probability both drive me insane.
November 2, 2026 at 2:48 AM
This and people not understanding probability both drive me insane.
If they think democrats win Florida while losing Texas…I want some of what they are smoking lol. Not that it is impossible, but the probability on that is incredibly slim.
November 3, 2026 at 6:25 PM
If they think democrats win Florida while losing Texas…I want some of what they are smoking lol. Not that it is impossible, but the probability on that is incredibly slim.
The probability for 40 °C threshold was found to be 0.53 % in the 2025 climate, which is a 1-in-190-year event.
The odds for a new Fennoscandian all-time record, 38.0 °C, was higher: only 4.0% (25 year return period) in the current climate.
These are not negligible probabilities.
The odds for a new Fennoscandian all-time record, 38.0 °C, was higher: only 4.0% (25 year return period) in the current climate.
These are not negligible probabilities.
November 2, 2026 at 7:35 AM
The probability for 40 °C threshold was found to be 0.53 % in the 2025 climate, which is a 1-in-190-year event.
The odds for a new Fennoscandian all-time record, 38.0 °C, was higher: only 4.0% (25 year return period) in the current climate.
These are not negligible probabilities.
The odds for a new Fennoscandian all-time record, 38.0 °C, was higher: only 4.0% (25 year return period) in the current climate.
These are not negligible probabilities.
Polymarket DOES NOT MEASURE PROBABILITY. It measures money flow, which loosely correlates to probability. It’s not hard to understand the distinction, unless for some reason$$$ - like a business deal with them - you don’t want to
November 3, 2026 at 9:36 PM
Polymarket DOES NOT MEASURE PROBABILITY. It measures money flow, which loosely correlates to probability. It’s not hard to understand the distinction, unless for some reason$$$ - like a business deal with them - you don’t want to
3/ So it's a question of which poison you pick: (a) Lower probability of discovering a job to apply to; higher probability of speaking to a person (b) Higher probability of discovering a job to apply to; lower probability of speaking to a person.
I don't know which one is worse
I don't know which one is worse
October 31, 2026 at 12:19 AM
3/ So it's a question of which poison you pick: (a) Lower probability of discovering a job to apply to; higher probability of speaking to a person (b) Higher probability of discovering a job to apply to; lower probability of speaking to a person.
I don't know which one is worse
I don't know which one is worse
It is insane how Nebraska has managed to find itself on the wrong side of every slim probability it encounters for nearly two decades.
November 1, 2026 at 3:21 AM
It is insane how Nebraska has managed to find itself on the wrong side of every slim probability it encounters for nearly two decades.