We’ve suspected for a long time that rainfall variability increases with warming. Now, observations are long enough and of sufficient quality to prove it. Not enough rain, and then too much, exacerbates climate impacts and makes adaptation more difficult.
via @retoknutti.bsky.social
via @retoknutti.bsky.social
Anthropogenic amplification of precipitation variability over the past century
As the climate warms, the consequent moistening of the atmosphere increases extreme precipitation. Precipitation variability should also increase, producing larger wet-dry swings, but that is yet to b...
www.science.org
August 14, 2024 at 2:54 AM
We’ve suspected for a long time that rainfall variability increases with warming. Now, observations are long enough and of sufficient quality to prove it. Not enough rain, and then too much, exacerbates climate impacts and makes adaptation more difficult.
via @retoknutti.bsky.social
via @retoknutti.bsky.social
Lots of interesting findings here: 'Large global-scale vegetation sensitivity to daily rainfall variability' www.nature.com/articles/s41... 'daily rainfall variability and its trends are affecting global vegetation photosynthesis, with potential implications for the carbon cycle and food security'
Large global-scale vegetation sensitivity to daily rainfall variability - Nature
Satellite data and field observations show that global annual-scale vegetation indices are sensitive to the daily frequency and intensity of rainfall, independent of the total amount of rainfall per y...
www.nature.com
December 17, 2024 at 9:05 PM
Lots of interesting findings here: 'Large global-scale vegetation sensitivity to daily rainfall variability' www.nature.com/articles/s41... 'daily rainfall variability and its trends are affecting global vegetation photosynthesis, with potential implications for the carbon cycle and food security'
Quite a bit of variability in the rainfall measurements from this morning. Several reports over 60mm over SW areas... and still heavy downpours continue.
March 17, 2026 at 2:37 PM
Quite a bit of variability in the rainfall measurements from this morning. Several reports over 60mm over SW areas... and still heavy downpours continue.
Interesting variability in yesterday's rainfall: Lunenburg much more than Mahone Bay... and Downtown Halifax-
Dartmouth much higher than Bedford.
Tough forecast :-)
Dartmouth much higher than Bedford.
Tough forecast :-)
July 9, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Interesting variability in yesterday's rainfall: Lunenburg much more than Mahone Bay... and Downtown Halifax-
Dartmouth much higher than Bedford.
Tough forecast :-)
Dartmouth much higher than Bedford.
Tough forecast :-)
Excited to share a new paper led by Andrew Feldman www.nature.com/articles/s41..., demonstrating the key role of rainfall intensity/frequency on carbon cycling.
Large global-scale vegetation sensitivity to daily rainfall variability - Nature
Satellite data and field observations show that global annual-scale vegetation indices are sensitive to the daily frequency and intensity of rainfall, independent of the total amount of rainfall per y...
www.nature.com
December 13, 2024 at 4:15 PM
Excited to share a new paper led by Andrew Feldman www.nature.com/articles/s41..., demonstrating the key role of rainfall intensity/frequency on carbon cycling.
In a warming climate, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) turns into Indian Nino/Nina, increasing rainfall variability over India but suppressing IOD's projection onto the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): 🌊🧪 www.nature.com/articles/s43...
March 2, 2025 at 1:18 PM
In a warming climate, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) turns into Indian Nino/Nina, increasing rainfall variability over India but suppressing IOD's projection onto the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): 🌊🧪 www.nature.com/articles/s43...
There's an interesting special section in the NYT today on the future of NYC, including the climate risks.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Notable is this graph of local changes in extreme rainfall:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Notable is this graph of local changes in extreme rainfall:
December 28, 2025 at 7:22 PM
There's an interesting special section in the NYT today on the future of NYC, including the climate risks.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Notable is this graph of local changes in extreme rainfall:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Notable is this graph of local changes in extreme rainfall:
...die Temperatur unseres Planeten kann nur stabilisiert werden, wenn wir vollständig aufhören Kohle, Öl und Gas zu verbrennen.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/...
Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models
Abstract. The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it aff...
esd.copernicus.org
May 26, 2024 at 7:00 AM
...die Temperatur unseres Planeten kann nur stabilisiert werden, wenn wir vollständig aufhören Kohle, Öl und Gas zu verbrennen.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
esd.copernicus.org/articles/12/...
A couple of rainfall maps illustrating the variability: lots of folks missed out on significant rains. There were a couple reports higher than 50mm in thunderstorms in the Margaree Valley CB and Glencoe PEI (between Charlottetown & Montague).
The 137mm in Dingwall looks suspicious.
The 137mm in Dingwall looks suspicious.
August 15, 2025 at 11:22 AM
A couple of rainfall maps illustrating the variability: lots of folks missed out on significant rains. There were a couple reports higher than 50mm in thunderstorms in the Margaree Valley CB and Glencoe PEI (between Charlottetown & Montague).
The 137mm in Dingwall looks suspicious.
The 137mm in Dingwall looks suspicious.
Excited to share our new #Nature article published yesterday. It showed that rainfall variability is almost as important as total annual rainfall amount in determining global vegetation dynamics.
Led by Feldman, with Konings, Gentine, Cattry, Smith, Biederman, Chatterjee, Joiner & Poulter
Led by Feldman, with Konings, Gentine, Cattry, Smith, Biederman, Chatterjee, Joiner & Poulter
December 13, 2024 at 2:32 AM
Excited to share our new #Nature article published yesterday. It showed that rainfall variability is almost as important as total annual rainfall amount in determining global vegetation dynamics.
Led by Feldman, with Konings, Gentine, Cattry, Smith, Biederman, Chatterjee, Joiner & Poulter
Led by Feldman, with Konings, Gentine, Cattry, Smith, Biederman, Chatterjee, Joiner & Poulter
Spontaneous climate fluctuations aka internal variability can either amplify or attenuate anthropogenic warming/rainfall increase over Europe in winter at near term.
We here introduce the concept of Internal Variability Storyline that could be useful for adaptation
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We here introduce the concept of Internal Variability Storyline that could be useful for adaptation
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Modulation of Northern Europe near-term anthropogenic warming and wettening assessed through internal variability storylines
www.nature.com
November 10, 2024 at 7:25 PM
Spontaneous climate fluctuations aka internal variability can either amplify or attenuate anthropogenic warming/rainfall increase over Europe in winter at near term.
We here introduce the concept of Internal Variability Storyline that could be useful for adaptation
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We here introduce the concept of Internal Variability Storyline that could be useful for adaptation
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Researchers are using AI to improve predictions of rainfall and sea level rise. Two new studies enhance our ability to understand and predict complex weather and ocean patterns, uncovering hidden connections in climate data with AI's help. Learn more: www.climate.gov/news-feature...
AI methods enhance rainfall and ocean forecasting in climate model
Artificial intelligence is opening new doors to Earth system modeling, and two recent studies demonstrate how AI can enhance our understanding of climate variability.
www.climate.gov
March 12, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Researchers are using AI to improve predictions of rainfall and sea level rise. Two new studies enhance our ability to understand and predict complex weather and ocean patterns, uncovering hidden connections in climate data with AI's help. Learn more: www.climate.gov/news-feature...
Hydrology Paper of the Day @paolamazzoglio.bsky.social on extreme-magnitude rainfall values in Italy: identifying trends in short-duration data; quantile regression over specific pixels; mapping statistically-significant rainfall locations; spatial variability; and examining methodologies.
Are extreme rainfall events intensifying in Italy? 🌧
In doi.org/10.1016/j.ej... we show that:
- short-duration ordinary extremes increase all over Italy;
- longer duration ordinary extremes exhibit negative trends in some areas;
- the most intense extremes vary more than the ordinary ones.
In doi.org/10.1016/j.ej... we show that:
- short-duration ordinary extremes increase all over Italy;
- longer duration ordinary extremes exhibit negative trends in some areas;
- the most intense extremes vary more than the ordinary ones.
March 11, 2025 at 4:49 AM
Hydrology Paper of the Day @paolamazzoglio.bsky.social on extreme-magnitude rainfall values in Italy: identifying trends in short-duration data; quantile regression over specific pixels; mapping statistically-significant rainfall locations; spatial variability; and examining methodologies.
A new study has examined 5.7 million years of mid latitude rainfall to examine the pattern of hydro climate extremes. 300m lacustrine sediments cores were drilled and analysed for the work.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #jetstream #hydroclimate #drought #flood #arcticamplification
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #jetstream #hydroclimate #drought #flood #arcticamplification
Westerly jet waviness modulates mid-latitude hydroclimate variability - Nature Communications
This study provides robust evidence that Arctic warming affects precipitation variability in the mid-latitudes by modulating westerly waviness. Under global warming, extreme precipitation events in mi...
www.nature.com
December 22, 2025 at 12:26 PM
A new study has examined 5.7 million years of mid latitude rainfall to examine the pattern of hydro climate extremes. 300m lacustrine sediments cores were drilled and analysed for the work.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #jetstream #hydroclimate #drought #flood #arcticamplification
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climatechange #jetstream #hydroclimate #drought #flood #arcticamplification
"I was eager to improve forecasts, especially for high-impact hazards like heat and heavy rainfall, using explainable AI. My work aimed to provide communities with actionable insights."
Thanks to @moadlc.bsky.social for this awesome illustration! Check out @silencedscience.bsky.social for more.
Thanks to @moadlc.bsky.social for this awesome illustration! Check out @silencedscience.bsky.social for more.
Dr. Zachary Labe, Climate Scientist
Dr. Zachary Labe is a climate scientist passionate about exploring the intersection of climate variability, extreme events, climate impacts, and innovative data science methods. His work at NOAA aimed...
silencedsciencestories.com
March 16, 2025 at 11:32 PM
"I was eager to improve forecasts, especially for high-impact hazards like heat and heavy rainfall, using explainable AI. My work aimed to provide communities with actionable insights."
Thanks to @moadlc.bsky.social for this awesome illustration! Check out @silencedscience.bsky.social for more.
Thanks to @moadlc.bsky.social for this awesome illustration! Check out @silencedscience.bsky.social for more.
There should be no question that climate change made the LA fires worse. This is simply a consequence of increased rainfall variability combined with warmer temperatures increasing fuel aridity.
See this paper: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
See this paper: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
January 11, 2025 at 5:49 PM
There should be no question that climate change made the LA fires worse. This is simply a consequence of increased rainfall variability combined with warmer temperatures increasing fuel aridity.
See this paper: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
See this paper: www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
This was something I found in my own research on wheatbelt rainfall. It was hard to tease out the increased variability from the natural variability for the time periods I was assessing, but it is really obvious in the current data set I'm looking at.
theconversation.com/landmark-new...
theconversation.com/landmark-new...
Landmark new research shows how global warming is messing with our rainfall
Mounting evidence shows rainfall is becoming increasingly variable, making the dry times drier and the wet much wetter. New findings confirm research into rainfall variability in Australia.
theconversation.com
July 26, 2024 at 12:51 PM
This was something I found in my own research on wheatbelt rainfall. It was hard to tease out the increased variability from the natural variability for the time periods I was assessing, but it is really obvious in the current data set I'm looking at.
theconversation.com/landmark-new...
theconversation.com/landmark-new...
Shifting rainfall patterns to more extreme precipitation events effect the global carbon sink as much as changes in rainfall totals...
#climate #Earth #sinks #biosphere
"Large global-scale vegetation sensitivity to daily rainfall variability"; www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climate #Earth #sinks #biosphere
"Large global-scale vegetation sensitivity to daily rainfall variability"; www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Large global-scale vegetation sensitivity to daily rainfall variability - Nature
Satellite data and field observations show that global annual-scale vegetation indices are sensitive to the daily frequency and intensity of rainfall, independent of the total amount of rainfall per y...
www.nature.com
March 10, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Shifting rainfall patterns to more extreme precipitation events effect the global carbon sink as much as changes in rainfall totals...
#climate #Earth #sinks #biosphere
"Large global-scale vegetation sensitivity to daily rainfall variability"; www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#climate #Earth #sinks #biosphere
"Large global-scale vegetation sensitivity to daily rainfall variability"; www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Consistent increase in East Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall and its variability under climate change over China.
Models project a doubling of extremely rainy monsoon seasons over the next 20 years.
esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...
Models project a doubling of extremely rainy monsoon seasons over the next 20 years.
esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...
August 22, 2024 at 9:02 AM
Consistent increase in East Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall and its variability under climate change over China.
Models project a doubling of extremely rainy monsoon seasons over the next 20 years.
esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...
Models project a doubling of extremely rainy monsoon seasons over the next 20 years.
esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...
Soil carbon projects are promoted as a key climate solution and farmers are being rewarded with carbon credits.
But new research suggests rainfall and climate variability may drive soil carbon gains more than land management changes.
#auspol #Climate #Agriculture #SoilCarbon
But new research suggests rainfall and climate variability may drive soil carbon gains more than land management changes.
#auspol #Climate #Agriculture #SoilCarbon
Are soil carbon schemes really working?
New research suggests rainfall and climate variability may play a larger role in soil carbon increases than land management, raising questions about carbon credit schemes.
johnmenadue.com
March 15, 2026 at 10:15 PM
Soil carbon projects are promoted as a key climate solution and farmers are being rewarded with carbon credits.
But new research suggests rainfall and climate variability may drive soil carbon gains more than land management changes.
#auspol #Climate #Agriculture #SoilCarbon
But new research suggests rainfall and climate variability may drive soil carbon gains more than land management changes.
#auspol #Climate #Agriculture #SoilCarbon
Gambel's Quail (Callipepla gambelii) present an interesting issue for conservation biologists. Their populations fluctuate in boom and bust cycles based on rainfall. This dramatic variability means it's hard to tell if the whole population is stable, increasing, or declining. #nature #science #birds
October 13, 2025 at 12:28 AM
Gambel's Quail (Callipepla gambelii) present an interesting issue for conservation biologists. Their populations fluctuate in boom and bust cycles based on rainfall. This dramatic variability means it's hard to tell if the whole population is stable, increasing, or declining. #nature #science #birds
Landmark new research shows how global warming is messing with our rainfall #rain #climatechange #drought #globalwarming #extremeweather theconversation.com/landmark-new...
Landmark new research shows how global warming is messing with our rainfall
Mounting evidence shows rainfall is becoming increasingly variable, making the dry times drier and the wet much wetter. New findings confirm research into rainfall variability in Australia.
theconversation.com
December 12, 2024 at 2:05 AM
Landmark new research shows how global warming is messing with our rainfall #rain #climatechange #drought #globalwarming #extremeweather theconversation.com/landmark-new...
Read now ahead of print: Dittmar and Schemske conducted a multi-year reciprocal transplant study over a microgeographic edaphic gradient, showing that local adaptation varies among years due to variability in annual rainfall.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
September 20, 2023 at 1:20 AM
Read now ahead of print: Dittmar and Schemske conducted a multi-year reciprocal transplant study over a microgeographic edaphic gradient, showing that local adaptation varies among years due to variability in annual rainfall.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
"Natural variability, but generally speaking this has been driven by global warming." Professor Steve Turton advises the severity of events in Qld increases with climate change because of the high content of water vapour in the atmosphere. www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04...
Rainfall to ease in outback Queensland but flooding continues
In a reprieve for weather-weary Queenslanders rainfall is set to ease, but floodwaters will linger for days at least as graziers start to calculate the full extent of livestock losses.
www.abc.net.au
April 3, 2025 at 1:14 AM
"Natural variability, but generally speaking this has been driven by global warming." Professor Steve Turton advises the severity of events in Qld increases with climate change because of the high content of water vapour in the atmosphere. www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04...