🚨🌊 2026 #WaveWatch Election Thread 🌊🚨
Compiling a list of races currently labeled as Safe R by Cook Political Report...but ones I believe will moved out of that category - and thus be put ‘in play’ - by Election Day.
Keep an eye on these elections both nationally and locally.
Compiling a list of races currently labeled as Safe R by Cook Political Report...but ones I believe will moved out of that category - and thus be put ‘in play’ - by Election Day.
Keep an eye on these elections both nationally and locally.
Giant Ocean Wave by Edna's Art
Alt: Giant Ocean Wave by Edna's Art
static.klipy.com
May 8, 2026 at 9:01 PM
🚨🌊 2026 #WaveWatch Election Thread 🌊🚨
Compiling a list of races currently labeled as Safe R by Cook Political Report...but ones I believe will moved out of that category - and thus be put ‘in play’ - by Election Day.
Keep an eye on these elections both nationally and locally.
Compiling a list of races currently labeled as Safe R by Cook Political Report...but ones I believe will moved out of that category - and thus be put ‘in play’ - by Election Day.
Keep an eye on these elections both nationally and locally.
#KSSen was going to be next on my list of #WaveWatch elections but Cook Political Report updated their rating before I could add it.
Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton will put this race on the edges of the map.
Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton will put this race on the edges of the map.
August 5, 2026 at 2:25 AM
#KSSen was going to be next on my list of #WaveWatch elections but Cook Political Report updated their rating before I could add it.
Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton will put this race on the edges of the map.
Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton will put this race on the edges of the map.
#WaveWatch Election: #CO04
Democrat: Eileen Laubacher - @eileenforco.bsky.social
GOP Incumbent: Lauren Boebert
Reasons:
*Boebert is an electoral underperformer
*Laubacher has a 30-1 cash-on-hand edge over Boebert ($3M vs. $161K)
*Laubacher's military bio fits a conservative district
Democrat: Eileen Laubacher - @eileenforco.bsky.social
GOP Incumbent: Lauren Boebert
Reasons:
*Boebert is an electoral underperformer
*Laubacher has a 30-1 cash-on-hand edge over Boebert ($3M vs. $161K)
*Laubacher's military bio fits a conservative district
May 8, 2026 at 9:02 PM
#WaveWatch Election: #CO04
Democrat: Eileen Laubacher - @eileenforco.bsky.social
GOP Incumbent: Lauren Boebert
Reasons:
*Boebert is an electoral underperformer
*Laubacher has a 30-1 cash-on-hand edge over Boebert ($3M vs. $161K)
*Laubacher's military bio fits a conservative district
Democrat: Eileen Laubacher - @eileenforco.bsky.social
GOP Incumbent: Lauren Boebert
Reasons:
*Boebert is an electoral underperformer
*Laubacher has a 30-1 cash-on-hand edge over Boebert ($3M vs. $161K)
*Laubacher's military bio fits a conservative district
#WaveWatch Election: #OH07
Democrat: Brian Poindexter - @poindexterforcongress.com
GOP Incumbent: Max Miller
Reasons: Max Miller is scandal-plagued with accusations of domestic abuse; Poindexter has real blue collar union cred; As a Trump+10 district, this could very well be 'in range'
Democrat: Brian Poindexter - @poindexterforcongress.com
GOP Incumbent: Max Miller
Reasons: Max Miller is scandal-plagued with accusations of domestic abuse; Poindexter has real blue collar union cred; As a Trump+10 district, this could very well be 'in range'
May 16, 2026 at 7:30 PM
#WaveWatch Election: #OH07
Democrat: Brian Poindexter - @poindexterforcongress.com
GOP Incumbent: Max Miller
Reasons: Max Miller is scandal-plagued with accusations of domestic abuse; Poindexter has real blue collar union cred; As a Trump+10 district, this could very well be 'in range'
Democrat: Brian Poindexter - @poindexterforcongress.com
GOP Incumbent: Max Miller
Reasons: Max Miller is scandal-plagued with accusations of domestic abuse; Poindexter has real blue collar union cred; As a Trump+10 district, this could very well be 'in range'
#WaveWatch Election: #MN01
Democrat: Jake Johnson - @jakejohnsonmn.bsky.social
GOP Incumbent: Brad Finstad
Reasons:
*Comparable fundraising
*Strong Dem ticket w/ Klobuchar
*Finstad only won by 4 pts in a better midterm 2022 environment
*Johnson is a math teacher
*Minnesota ICE backlash?
Democrat: Jake Johnson - @jakejohnsonmn.bsky.social
GOP Incumbent: Brad Finstad
Reasons:
*Comparable fundraising
*Strong Dem ticket w/ Klobuchar
*Finstad only won by 4 pts in a better midterm 2022 environment
*Johnson is a math teacher
*Minnesota ICE backlash?
May 8, 2026 at 9:09 PM
#WaveWatch Election: #MN01
Democrat: Jake Johnson - @jakejohnsonmn.bsky.social
GOP Incumbent: Brad Finstad
Reasons:
*Comparable fundraising
*Strong Dem ticket w/ Klobuchar
*Finstad only won by 4 pts in a better midterm 2022 environment
*Johnson is a math teacher
*Minnesota ICE backlash?
Democrat: Jake Johnson - @jakejohnsonmn.bsky.social
GOP Incumbent: Brad Finstad
Reasons:
*Comparable fundraising
*Strong Dem ticket w/ Klobuchar
*Finstad only won by 4 pts in a better midterm 2022 environment
*Johnson is a math teacher
*Minnesota ICE backlash?
#WaveWatch Election: #ALGov
Democrat: Doug Jones @dougjones.bsky.social
Republican: Tommy Tuberville (Open Seat)
Reasons: Jones is the rare AL Dem who has won statewide; Tuberville is a punchline w/ real residency issues; rising African-American anger over redistricting.
Democrat: Doug Jones @dougjones.bsky.social
Republican: Tommy Tuberville (Open Seat)
Reasons: Jones is the rare AL Dem who has won statewide; Tuberville is a punchline w/ real residency issues; rising African-American anger over redistricting.
May 21, 2026 at 12:56 AM
#WaveWatch Election: #ALGov
Democrat: Doug Jones @dougjones.bsky.social
Republican: Tommy Tuberville (Open Seat)
Reasons: Jones is the rare AL Dem who has won statewide; Tuberville is a punchline w/ real residency issues; rising African-American anger over redistricting.
Democrat: Doug Jones @dougjones.bsky.social
Republican: Tommy Tuberville (Open Seat)
Reasons: Jones is the rare AL Dem who has won statewide; Tuberville is a punchline w/ real residency issues; rising African-American anger over redistricting.
#WaveWatch Election: #MSSen
Democrat: Scott Colom - @scolom.bsky.social
GOP Incumbent: Cindy Hyde-Smith
Reasons: Black voter anger in a state with a 40% black population (highest % in the US) over southern redistricting; Hyde-Smith has never broken 55% in Senate races; Colom is a charismatic DA.
Democrat: Scott Colom - @scolom.bsky.social
GOP Incumbent: Cindy Hyde-Smith
Reasons: Black voter anger in a state with a 40% black population (highest % in the US) over southern redistricting; Hyde-Smith has never broken 55% in Senate races; Colom is a charismatic DA.
May 11, 2026 at 1:48 PM
#WaveWatch Election: #MSSen
Democrat: Scott Colom - @scolom.bsky.social
GOP Incumbent: Cindy Hyde-Smith
Reasons: Black voter anger in a state with a 40% black population (highest % in the US) over southern redistricting; Hyde-Smith has never broken 55% in Senate races; Colom is a charismatic DA.
Democrat: Scott Colom - @scolom.bsky.social
GOP Incumbent: Cindy Hyde-Smith
Reasons: Black voter anger in a state with a 40% black population (highest % in the US) over southern redistricting; Hyde-Smith has never broken 55% in Senate races; Colom is a charismatic DA.
#WaveWatch Election: #CO03
Democrat: Dwayne Romero @romeroforcolorado.bsky.social
Republican: Jeff Hurd
Reasons: Trump only won this district by less than 10pts in 2024; Hurd only won this district by 5pts in 2024; and Romero’s a military veteran who saw combat.
Democrat: Dwayne Romero @romeroforcolorado.bsky.social
Republican: Jeff Hurd
Reasons: Trump only won this district by less than 10pts in 2024; Hurd only won this district by 5pts in 2024; and Romero’s a military veteran who saw combat.
July 1, 2026 at 2:34 AM
#WaveWatch Election: #CO03
Democrat: Dwayne Romero @romeroforcolorado.bsky.social
Republican: Jeff Hurd
Reasons: Trump only won this district by less than 10pts in 2024; Hurd only won this district by 5pts in 2024; and Romero’s a military veteran who saw combat.
Democrat: Dwayne Romero @romeroforcolorado.bsky.social
Republican: Jeff Hurd
Reasons: Trump only won this district by less than 10pts in 2024; Hurd only won this district by 5pts in 2024; and Romero’s a military veteran who saw combat.
#WaveWatch Election: #KY06
Democrat: Zach Dembo @zachdembo.bsky.social
Republican: Ralph Alvarado (Open Seat)
Reasons: This is a seat that is both Trump+15 and Beshear +20; Dembo is a Navy vet and former federal prosecutor; Dembo/Alvarado start the general at parity on fundraising
Democrat: Zach Dembo @zachdembo.bsky.social
Republican: Ralph Alvarado (Open Seat)
Reasons: This is a seat that is both Trump+15 and Beshear +20; Dembo is a Navy vet and former federal prosecutor; Dembo/Alvarado start the general at parity on fundraising
May 20, 2026 at 2:09 AM
#WaveWatch Election: #KY06
Democrat: Zach Dembo @zachdembo.bsky.social
Republican: Ralph Alvarado (Open Seat)
Reasons: This is a seat that is both Trump+15 and Beshear +20; Dembo is a Navy vet and former federal prosecutor; Dembo/Alvarado start the general at parity on fundraising
Democrat: Zach Dembo @zachdembo.bsky.social
Republican: Ralph Alvarado (Open Seat)
Reasons: This is a seat that is both Trump+15 and Beshear +20; Dembo is a Navy vet and former federal prosecutor; Dembo/Alvarado start the general at parity on fundraising
#WaveWatch Election: #OH10
Democrat: Kristina Knickerbocker @knickerbockeroh.bsky.social
Republican: Mike Turner
Reasons: Turner is a more traditional R who overperformed Trump, but this district is only Trump+8; Knickerbocker has an impressive bio as an Air Force vet and Nurse Practitioner
Democrat: Kristina Knickerbocker @knickerbockeroh.bsky.social
Republican: Mike Turner
Reasons: Turner is a more traditional R who overperformed Trump, but this district is only Trump+8; Knickerbocker has an impressive bio as an Air Force vet and Nurse Practitioner
July 2, 2026 at 10:46 PM
#WaveWatch Election: #OH10
Democrat: Kristina Knickerbocker @knickerbockeroh.bsky.social
Republican: Mike Turner
Reasons: Turner is a more traditional R who overperformed Trump, but this district is only Trump+8; Knickerbocker has an impressive bio as an Air Force vet and Nurse Practitioner
Democrat: Kristina Knickerbocker @knickerbockeroh.bsky.social
Republican: Mike Turner
Reasons: Turner is a more traditional R who overperformed Trump, but this district is only Trump+8; Knickerbocker has an impressive bio as an Air Force vet and Nurse Practitioner
#WaveWatch Election: #TXGov
Democrat: Gina Hinojosa @ginafortexas.bsky.social
Republican: Greg Abbott
Reasons: Paxton may be a drag on the ballot; Abbott is seeking a 4th term in an anti-incumbent year; Hinojosa will benefit from Hispanics swinging Dem; education could be a sleeper issue here
Democrat: Gina Hinojosa @ginafortexas.bsky.social
Republican: Greg Abbott
Reasons: Paxton may be a drag on the ballot; Abbott is seeking a 4th term in an anti-incumbent year; Hinojosa will benefit from Hispanics swinging Dem; education could be a sleeper issue here
July 10, 2026 at 3:37 PM
#WaveWatch Election: #TXGov
Democrat: Gina Hinojosa @ginafortexas.bsky.social
Republican: Greg Abbott
Reasons: Paxton may be a drag on the ballot; Abbott is seeking a 4th term in an anti-incumbent year; Hinojosa will benefit from Hispanics swinging Dem; education could be a sleeper issue here
Democrat: Gina Hinojosa @ginafortexas.bsky.social
Republican: Greg Abbott
Reasons: Paxton may be a drag on the ballot; Abbott is seeking a 4th term in an anti-incumbent year; Hinojosa will benefit from Hispanics swinging Dem; education could be a sleeper issue here
An introduction on how to start using the wave model #WAVEWATCH III coupled with the ocean model #CROCO using the #OASIS coupler.
#ocean #modelling 🧪🌊
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
#ocean #modelling 🧪🌊
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
(PDF) An introduction to the CROCO simulations: Dealing with WAVEWATCH III
PDF | This is an introduction on how to start using the wave model WAVEWATCH III coupled with the ocean model CROCO using the OASIS coupler. | Find, read and cite all the research you need on Research...
www.researchgate.net
January 20, 2026 at 10:43 PM
An introduction on how to start using the wave model #WAVEWATCH III coupled with the ocean model #CROCO using the #OASIS coupler.
#ocean #modelling 🧪🌊
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
#ocean #modelling 🧪🌊
www.researchgate.net/publication/...
Maybe they are out surfing
March 16, 2026 at 6:12 PM
Maybe they are out surfing
#WaveWatch Election: #NY21
Democrat: Blake Gendebein @blakegendebien.bsky.social
Republican: Anthony Constantino (Open Seat)
Reasons: Constantino is crazy MAGA and has alienated moderate Rs who could be swayed; polling shows this Trump+20 district as tied; Gendebien codes well as a dairy farmer
Democrat: Blake Gendebein @blakegendebien.bsky.social
Republican: Anthony Constantino (Open Seat)
Reasons: Constantino is crazy MAGA and has alienated moderate Rs who could be swayed; polling shows this Trump+20 district as tied; Gendebien codes well as a dairy farmer
June 26, 2026 at 6:28 PM
#WaveWatch Election: #NY21
Democrat: Blake Gendebein @blakegendebien.bsky.social
Republican: Anthony Constantino (Open Seat)
Reasons: Constantino is crazy MAGA and has alienated moderate Rs who could be swayed; polling shows this Trump+20 district as tied; Gendebien codes well as a dairy farmer
Democrat: Blake Gendebein @blakegendebien.bsky.social
Republican: Anthony Constantino (Open Seat)
Reasons: Constantino is crazy MAGA and has alienated moderate Rs who could be swayed; polling shows this Trump+20 district as tied; Gendebien codes well as a dairy farmer
No surprise here, but Cook Political Report has moved Max Miller’s #OH07 race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican and now to Toss-Up.
The #WaveWatch continues…
www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/hou...
The #WaveWatch continues…
www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/hou...
Ohio Rep. Max Miller’s District Moves From Likely Republican to Toss Up
GOP Rep. Max Miller, who is facing allegations of domestic abuse toward his ex-wife and two-year-old daughter, is still running for reelection despite mounting pressure from leaders in his party to le...
www.cookpolitical.com
August 11, 2026 at 5:17 AM
No surprise here, but Cook Political Report has moved Max Miller’s #OH07 race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican and now to Toss-Up.
The #WaveWatch continues…
www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/hou...
The #WaveWatch continues…
www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/hou...
Two of the races on my #WaveWatch thread/list have been moved from Safe Republican to Likely Republican:
#CO03 and #OH10
#CO03 and #OH10
August 13, 2026 at 11:45 PM
Two of the races on my #WaveWatch thread/list have been moved from Safe Republican to Likely Republican:
#CO03 and #OH10
#CO03 and #OH10
As predicted earlier in my #WaveWatch thread above, #TXGov is no longer 'Safe R' on Cook Political Report.
www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/sen...
www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/sen...
Texas and Iowa Senate Races Move to Toss Up; Races for Governor Also Move in Democrats’ Direction
The battle for the Senate is about to intensify ahead of the traditional Labor Day starting gun. Republicans still retain a structural advantage given the partisan challenges of the map, and Democrats...
www.cookpolitical.com
August 20, 2026 at 11:20 PM
As predicted earlier in my #WaveWatch thread above, #TXGov is no longer 'Safe R' on Cook Political Report.
www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/sen...
www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/sen...
#WaveWatch Election: #SCSen
Democrat: Dr. Annie Andrews @drannieandrews.com
Republican: Darline Graham
Reasons: Dr. Andrews is a good candidate...while Darline is a weak, unqualified, embarrassing nepo candidate who was handed her seat and barely broke 50% in a GOP primary with Trump's help.
Democrat: Dr. Annie Andrews @drannieandrews.com
Republican: Darline Graham
Reasons: Dr. Andrews is a good candidate...while Darline is a weak, unqualified, embarrassing nepo candidate who was handed her seat and barely broke 50% in a GOP primary with Trump's help.
August 29, 2026 at 4:18 PM
#WaveWatch Election: #SCSen
Democrat: Dr. Annie Andrews @drannieandrews.com
Republican: Darline Graham
Reasons: Dr. Andrews is a good candidate...while Darline is a weak, unqualified, embarrassing nepo candidate who was handed her seat and barely broke 50% in a GOP primary with Trump's help.
Democrat: Dr. Annie Andrews @drannieandrews.com
Republican: Darline Graham
Reasons: Dr. Andrews is a good candidate...while Darline is a weak, unqualified, embarrassing nepo candidate who was handed her seat and barely broke 50% in a GOP primary with Trump's help.
Ugh I meant to add #FLGov to my #WaveWatch list earlier on, but never got around to it. I would have, though. And now Cook has moved it from Solid R to Likely R.
floridaphoenix.com/2026/08/27/c...
floridaphoenix.com/2026/08/27/c...
Cook Political Report shifts FL gubernatorial race from 'solid' to 'likely' Republican • Florida Phoenix
One of the top political prediction websites in the country says Byron Donalds remains the favorite for Florida governor but sees some shift toward Democrat David Jolly. The nonpartisan Cook Political...
floridaphoenix.com
August 28, 2026 at 8:49 PM
Ugh I meant to add #FLGov to my #WaveWatch list earlier on, but never got around to it. I would have, though. And now Cook has moved it from Solid R to Likely R.
floridaphoenix.com/2026/08/27/c...
floridaphoenix.com/2026/08/27/c...
Practicing my 'I meant to sit here' face while the tide auditions for a splash cameo - who else brings snacks for the seagulls and drama for the waves? 🌊😅 #BeachLife #SandySituations #WaveWatch #Photography
August 27, 2026 at 11:42 PM
Practicing my 'I meant to sit here' face while the tide auditions for a splash cameo - who else brings snacks for the seagulls and drama for the waves? 🌊😅 #BeachLife #SandySituations #WaveWatch #Photography
Apresentando Gabrielle Harris, minha mais nova OC. Salva-vidas da Wavewatch, é bonita, forte e também impulsiva.
E uma informação de bastidores: a moça da direita também é ela, só que não quis postar.
Enfim, espero que gostem.
#oc #originalcharacter #digital #clipstudiopaint
E uma informação de bastidores: a moça da direita também é ela, só que não quis postar.
Enfim, espero que gostem.
#oc #originalcharacter #digital #clipstudiopaint
August 23, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Apresentando Gabrielle Harris, minha mais nova OC. Salva-vidas da Wavewatch, é bonita, forte e também impulsiva.
E uma informação de bastidores: a moça da direita também é ela, só que não quis postar.
Enfim, espero que gostem.
#oc #originalcharacter #digital #clipstudiopaint
E uma informação de bastidores: a moça da direita também é ela, só que não quis postar.
Enfim, espero que gostem.
#oc #originalcharacter #digital #clipstudiopaint
#FinstadWatch
#WaveWatch
#TimeForChange in #MN01
@jakejohnsonmn.bsky.social is Father to four sons who has taught for 20 years in #RochesterMN, teaching classes in mathematics.
Incumbent #RepFinstad is a multi-millionaire agriculture investor who supports #Trump #TrumpTarriffs & #FinstadIranWar
#WaveWatch
#TimeForChange in #MN01
@jakejohnsonmn.bsky.social is Father to four sons who has taught for 20 years in #RochesterMN, teaching classes in mathematics.
Incumbent #RepFinstad is a multi-millionaire agriculture investor who supports #Trump #TrumpTarriffs & #FinstadIranWar
June 22, 2026 at 5:51 AM
#FinstadWatch
#WaveWatch
#TimeForChange in #MN01
@jakejohnsonmn.bsky.social is Father to four sons who has taught for 20 years in #RochesterMN, teaching classes in mathematics.
Incumbent #RepFinstad is a multi-millionaire agriculture investor who supports #Trump #TrumpTarriffs & #FinstadIranWar
#WaveWatch
#TimeForChange in #MN01
@jakejohnsonmn.bsky.social is Father to four sons who has taught for 20 years in #RochesterMN, teaching classes in mathematics.
Incumbent #RepFinstad is a multi-millionaire agriculture investor who supports #Trump #TrumpTarriffs & #FinstadIranWar
"7 meter waves in the Fram Strait?"
If Wavewatch III is to be believed!
If Wavewatch III is to be believed!
February 4, 2025 at 8:01 PM
"7 meter waves in the Fram Strait?"
If Wavewatch III is to be believed!
If Wavewatch III is to be believed!
"Enhancing Storm Wave Predictions in the Gulf of Mexico: A Study on Wind Drag Parameterization in WAVEWATCH III" www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/13...
Enhancing Storm Wave Predictions in the Gulf of Mexico: A Study on Wind Drag Parameterization in WAVEWATCH III
This study focuses on the significance of wind input source terms and their impact on wave generation in the wave model, WAVEWATCH III. Storm wave modeling capabilities were assessed with three differ...
www.mdpi.com
February 26, 2025 at 8:48 AM
"Enhancing Storm Wave Predictions in the Gulf of Mexico: A Study on Wind Drag Parameterization in WAVEWATCH III" www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/13...
🌊 Live surf conditions from Westerland, Sylt!
Watch the waves roll in on Germany’s surf hotspot — updated in real-time 🏄♂️
📺 Tune in: www.pictimo.com/germany/sylt...
#SurfCam #Sylt #Westerland #LiveSurf #GermanySurf #SurfCheck #WaveWatch #SurfersParadise
Watch the waves roll in on Germany’s surf hotspot — updated in real-time 🏄♂️
📺 Tune in: www.pictimo.com/germany/sylt...
#SurfCam #Sylt #Westerland #LiveSurf #GermanySurf #SurfCheck #WaveWatch #SurfersParadise
Watch live webcam Westerland Surfcam Sylt
Watch live webcam: Westerland Surfcam Sylt,Sylt Germany
www.pictimo.com
April 25, 2025 at 7:13 AM
🌊 Live surf conditions from Westerland, Sylt!
Watch the waves roll in on Germany’s surf hotspot — updated in real-time 🏄♂️
📺 Tune in: www.pictimo.com/germany/sylt...
#SurfCam #Sylt #Westerland #LiveSurf #GermanySurf #SurfCheck #WaveWatch #SurfersParadise
Watch the waves roll in on Germany’s surf hotspot — updated in real-time 🏄♂️
📺 Tune in: www.pictimo.com/germany/sylt...
#SurfCam #Sylt #Westerland #LiveSurf #GermanySurf #SurfCheck #WaveWatch #SurfersParadise