Adam Carlson
@admcrlsn.bsky.social
Founding Partner of Zenith Research. Spreadsheets help me relax. Views are my own.
Thank you to the 44 people who have donated a combined $15K+ to majority-making Dem House & Senate campaigns over the last few days!
Though I know we are just scratching the surface. Republican outside groups are gonna bombard these races down the stretch, so we can’t get complacent.
⬇️
Though I know we are just scratching the surface. Republican outside groups are gonna bombard these races down the stretch, so we can’t get complacent.
⬇️
August 23, 2026 at 12:01 PM
Thank you to the 44 people who have donated a combined $15K+ to majority-making Dem House & Senate campaigns over the last few days!
Though I know we are just scratching the surface. Republican outside groups are gonna bombard these races down the stretch, so we can’t get complacent.
⬇️
Though I know we are just scratching the surface. Republican outside groups are gonna bombard these races down the stretch, so we can’t get complacent.
⬇️
Ok here’s a link where you can split your donations between the 7 Democratic Senate candidates who will determine the majority:
Mary Peltola (AK)
Josh Turek (IA)
Troy Jackson (ME)
Abdul El-Sayed (MI)
Roy Cooper (NC)
Sherrod Brown (OH)
James Talarico (TX)
secure.actblue.com/donate/2026s...
Mary Peltola (AK)
Josh Turek (IA)
Troy Jackson (ME)
Abdul El-Sayed (MI)
Roy Cooper (NC)
Sherrod Brown (OH)
James Talarico (TX)
secure.actblue.com/donate/2026s...
Chip in!
Show your support with a contribution.
secure.actblue.com
August 22, 2026 at 12:26 AM
Ok here’s a link where you can split your donations between the 7 Democratic Senate candidates who will determine the majority:
Mary Peltola (AK)
Josh Turek (IA)
Troy Jackson (ME)
Abdul El-Sayed (MI)
Roy Cooper (NC)
Sherrod Brown (OH)
James Talarico (TX)
secure.actblue.com/donate/2026s...
Mary Peltola (AK)
Josh Turek (IA)
Troy Jackson (ME)
Abdul El-Sayed (MI)
Roy Cooper (NC)
Sherrod Brown (OH)
James Talarico (TX)
secure.actblue.com/donate/2026s...
While Democrats are favored to flip the House in November, it is by no means a done deal.
In the link below, I've created an ActBlue link where you can split donations between the 26 Democratic House candidates where your money can make the biggest impact.
secure.actblue.com/donate/26hou...
In the link below, I've created an ActBlue link where you can split donations between the 26 Democratic House candidates where your money can make the biggest impact.
secure.actblue.com/donate/26hou...
August 19, 2026 at 11:33 AM
While Democrats are favored to flip the House in November, it is by no means a done deal.
In the link below, I've created an ActBlue link where you can split donations between the 26 Democratic House candidates where your money can make the biggest impact.
secure.actblue.com/donate/26hou...
In the link below, I've created an ActBlue link where you can split donations between the 26 Democratic House candidates where your money can make the biggest impact.
secure.actblue.com/donate/26hou...
In publicly released polls conducted in February & March, Platner leads Mills by an average of 25 pts (56-31).
Mills has not hit 40% in any poll conducted in 2026.
Platner also outperforms Mills in matchups against Collins in each of the last six polls, by an average of 7 pts.
Mills has not hit 40% in any poll conducted in 2026.
Platner also outperforms Mills in matchups against Collins in each of the last six polls, by an average of 7 pts.
April 7, 2026 at 1:32 PM
In publicly released polls conducted in February & March, Platner leads Mills by an average of 25 pts (56-31).
Mills has not hit 40% in any poll conducted in 2026.
Platner also outperforms Mills in matchups against Collins in each of the last six polls, by an average of 7 pts.
Mills has not hit 40% in any poll conducted in 2026.
Platner also outperforms Mills in matchups against Collins in each of the last six polls, by an average of 7 pts.
New Emerson College poll in Maine (3/21 - 3/23, likely voters)
DEM PRIMARY (n=530, ±4.2% MoE)
🔵 55% Platner (+27)
🔵 28% Mills
—
GENERAL ELECTION (n=1,075 LV, ±2.9% MoE)
🔵 48% Platner (+7)
🔴 41% Collins
🔵 46% Mills (+3)
🔴 43% Collins
DEM PRIMARY (n=530, ±4.2% MoE)
🔵 55% Platner (+27)
🔵 28% Mills
—
GENERAL ELECTION (n=1,075 LV, ±2.9% MoE)
🔵 48% Platner (+7)
🔴 41% Collins
🔵 46% Mills (+3)
🔴 43% Collins
March 26, 2026 at 11:40 AM
New Emerson College poll in Maine (3/21 - 3/23, likely voters)
DEM PRIMARY (n=530, ±4.2% MoE)
🔵 55% Platner (+27)
🔵 28% Mills
—
GENERAL ELECTION (n=1,075 LV, ±2.9% MoE)
🔵 48% Platner (+7)
🔴 41% Collins
🔵 46% Mills (+3)
🔴 43% Collins
DEM PRIMARY (n=530, ±4.2% MoE)
🔵 55% Platner (+27)
🔵 28% Mills
—
GENERAL ELECTION (n=1,075 LV, ±2.9% MoE)
🔵 48% Platner (+7)
🔴 41% Collins
🔵 46% Mills (+3)
🔴 43% Collins
This looks pretty defensible from a geographic & demographic perspective (though hard to know how early vote demos will compare to Election Day vote demos)
Here’s how the poll’s composition compares to the last three higher turnout primaries in the district (2020, 2018, 2016):
Here’s how the poll’s composition compares to the last three higher turnout primaries in the district (2020, 2018, 2016):
March 17, 2026 at 7:55 PM
This looks pretty defensible from a geographic & demographic perspective (though hard to know how early vote demos will compare to Election Day vote demos)
Here’s how the poll’s composition compares to the last three higher turnout primaries in the district (2020, 2018, 2016):
Here’s how the poll’s composition compares to the last three higher turnout primaries in the district (2020, 2018, 2016):
Here’s another way of looking at Chicago racial and ideological coalitions.
Raja is expected to do better in the red and yellow wards.
Stratton is expected to do better in the green, blue & turquoise wards.
Gray wards are usually competitive.
Raja is expected to do better in the red and yellow wards.
Stratton is expected to do better in the green, blue & turquoise wards.
Gray wards are usually competitive.
March 11, 2026 at 5:56 PM
Here’s another way of looking at Chicago racial and ideological coalitions.
Raja is expected to do better in the red and yellow wards.
Stratton is expected to do better in the green, blue & turquoise wards.
Gray wards are usually competitive.
Raja is expected to do better in the red and yellow wards.
Stratton is expected to do better in the green, blue & turquoise wards.
Gray wards are usually competitive.
🚨 New @ZenithPolls poll among n=800
likely Dem primary voters in Maryland
(2/8-11) 🚨
🔵 70% support the state legidlature redrawing the state’s congressional map before November after hearing arguments for and against it
likely Dem primary voters in Maryland
(2/8-11) 🚨
🔵 70% support the state legidlature redrawing the state’s congressional map before November after hearing arguments for and against it
February 13, 2026 at 2:53 AM
🚨 New @ZenithPolls poll among n=800
likely Dem primary voters in Maryland
(2/8-11) 🚨
🔵 70% support the state legidlature redrawing the state’s congressional map before November after hearing arguments for and against it
likely Dem primary voters in Maryland
(2/8-11) 🚨
🔵 70% support the state legidlature redrawing the state’s congressional map before November after hearing arguments for and against it
Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district
Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points
Buckle up.
Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points
Buckle up.
December 10, 2025 at 2:14 AM
Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district
Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points
Buckle up.
Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points
Buckle up.
Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles.
He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.
I’m sticking with Graham.
He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.
I’m sticking with Graham.
A Marine veteran turned oyster farmer who is now a rising Democratic Senate candidate once called himself a “communist,” dismissed “all” police as bastards, and said rural White Americans “actually are” racist and stupid, according to deleted social media posts seen by CNN. https://cnn.it/47sXon6
‘I got older and became a communist': Deleted posts show Maine Senate hopeful's raw views on politics, war, and police | CNN Politics
Graham Platner, a Marine veteran turned oyster farmer, now disavows posts he made years ago, saying they came from a time when he felt disillusioned and angry and expressed those emotions online.
www.cnn.com
October 16, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles.
He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.
I’m sticking with Graham.
He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care.
I’m sticking with Graham.
Reposted by Adam Carlson
3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go!
Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
October 14, 2025 at 12:31 PM
3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go!
Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
Reposted by Adam Carlson
NEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.
Poll: Platner Best Positioned Maine Dem to Defeat Susan Collins
After respondents were shown short biographies for both candidates, Graham Platner leads Sen. Susan Collins by 14 points, while Gov. Janet Mills leads Collins by 8 points.
substack.perfectunion.us
October 10, 2025 at 10:21 PM
NEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.
In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke:
🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided
So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided
So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
NEW YORK (AP) — New York City Mayor Eric Adams ends his reelection campaign.
September 28, 2025 at 6:00 PM
In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke:
🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided
So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
🟡 52% went to Cuomo
🔴 17% went to Sliwa
🔵 10% went to Mamdani
⚫️ 21% went to undecided
So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
Reposted by Adam Carlson
I’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Are Democrats "talking too much" about left-wing issues?
The data mostly do not justify the conclusions people are drawing
open.substack.com
September 25, 2025 at 3:08 PM
I’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration.
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied:
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents
Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents
Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided
New poll finds dead heat in NJ governor’s race newjerseymonitor.com/briefs/new-p...
New poll finds dead heat in NJ governor's race • New Jersey Monitor
Rep. Mikie Sherrill and former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli are in a statistical tie, according to an Emerson College Poll released Thursday.
newjerseymonitor.com
September 25, 2025 at 2:50 PM
Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied:
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents
Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents
Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided
I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades.
So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.
We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.
We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
September 25, 2025 at 2:42 PM
I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades.
So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.
We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday.
We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
@joesudbay.bsky.social asked me to post here more, so I’m gonna try to
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
September 25, 2025 at 12:05 AM
@joesudbay.bsky.social asked me to post here more, so I’m gonna try to
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
September 24, 2025 at 11:40 PM
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50%
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
Ayyy that’s my poll
Also in Zenith Research/Public Progress Solutions poll:
Mamdani has 43% of the Jewish vote, including 67% among younger Jewish voters aged 18-44.
Cuomo at 26%, and 33% among Conservative/Orthodox Jews.
Adams at 15% with Jews, at 27% with Con/Ortho.
Mamdani has 21% among Ortho.
(Sample 152 LV)
Mamdani has 43% of the Jewish vote, including 67% among younger Jewish voters aged 18-44.
Cuomo at 26%, and 33% among Conservative/Orthodox Jews.
Adams at 15% with Jews, at 27% with Con/Ortho.
Mamdani has 21% among Ortho.
(Sample 152 LV)
August 1, 2025 at 1:05 AM
Ayyy that’s my poll
Stay tuned for the release of a brand new, first of its kind, fully independent NYC mayor general election poll from Zenith Research (me) and Public Progress Solutions (Amit Singh Bagga) this afternoon.
More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
July 29, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Stay tuned for the release of a brand new, first of its kind, fully independent NYC mayor general election poll from Zenith Research (me) and Public Progress Solutions (Amit Singh Bagga) this afternoon.
More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research!
After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
July 8, 2025 at 1:36 AM
Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research!
After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
Reposted by Adam Carlson
Someone out there has the chance to make an excellent hire right now:
Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday
If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry
If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing
Thanks!
If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry
If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing
Thanks!
May 5, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Someone out there has the chance to make an excellent hire right now:
Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday
If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry
If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing
Thanks!
If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry
If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing
Thanks!
May 5, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday
If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry
If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing
Thanks!
If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry
If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing
Thanks!
Wild story in the WSJ.
It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.
But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.
But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
April 16, 2025 at 3:41 AM
Wild story in the WSJ.
It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.
But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below.
But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
Fuck Chuck Schumer and anyone who stands with him
March 14, 2025 at 1:45 AM
Fuck Chuck Schumer and anyone who stands with him