Adam Carlson
admcrlsn.bsky.social
Adam Carlson
@admcrlsn.bsky.social
Founding Partner of Zenith Research. Spreadsheets help me relax. Views are my own.
7 Senate Races Where Your Donations Can Make the Biggest Impact:

secure.actblue.com/donate/2026s...
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August 23, 2026 at 12:01 PM
26 in ‘26: House Races Where Your Donations Can Make the Biggest Impact:

secure.actblue.com/donate/26hou...
Chip in!
Show your support with a contribution.
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August 23, 2026 at 12:01 PM
I’m not gonna spam you all with pleas for fundraising (we all get enough of that) but I’ll re-up these links every so often in case they got lost in the shuffle.
August 23, 2026 at 12:01 PM
August 19, 2026 at 12:05 PM
August 19, 2026 at 12:05 PM
I did a similar exercise in 2024 and we raised over $118K from 648 contributions (netted out to just shy of $5K per campaign).

My goal is to collectively raise $250K this cycle (just shy of $10K per House campaign on this list).

Idk I think we can do it.
August 19, 2026 at 12:01 PM
It's always important to show your work.

Below is the spreadsheet with all of the information that I used to inform my decision making for these 26 Dem House campaigns, with lots of pretty (overwhelming?) conditional formatting, because why not.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...
26 House Democrats To Donate To In '26
docs.google.com
August 19, 2026 at 11:37 AM
And I've turned off the setting that automatically shares your email and phone number with the recipient campaigns. It'll ask you if you want to share your contact info (don't do it!) so you don't get hit with all those annoying emails and texts.
August 19, 2026 at 11:34 AM
Even if you can just give $26 — $1 per campaign — it helps en route to critical mass. Whether or not you are able to donate, please share with others.

If you don't want to donate to all of the campaigns, or want to donate to some campaigns more than others, you can customize that very easily.
August 19, 2026 at 11:34 AM
Platner has outperformed Mills in general election matchups against Collins in the last five publicly released polls:

Emerson:
🔵 Platner +7
🔵 Mills +3

OnMessage (R):
🔵 Platner +2
🟡 Tie

Quantus (R):
🔵 Platner +7
🔴 Collins +2

Pan Atlantic:
🔵 Platner +4
🟡 Tie

UNH:
🔵 Platner +11
🔵 Mills +1
March 26, 2026 at 11:42 AM
In general election matchups vs. Collins, Platner outperforms Mills among 13 of 17 subgroups, the exceptions being:

4-Year College Grads — Exact tie

Women — Mills does 0.3 points better than Platner

Democrats — Mills does 1 point better

Age 70+ — Mills does 2 points better
March 26, 2026 at 11:42 AM
In general election matchups vs. Collins, Platner outperforms Mills among 13 of 17 subgroups, the exceptions being:

4-Year College Grads — Exact tie

Women — Mills does 0.3 points better than Platner

Democrats — Mills does 1 point better

Age 70+ — Mills does 2 points better
March 26, 2026 at 11:41 AM
The last three non-partisan and independent polls of the Democratic primary:

Emerson: 🔵 Platner +27 (55-38)

Pan Atlantic Research: 🔵 Platner +7 (46-39)

UNH: 🔵 Platner +38 (64-26)



Average: 🔵 Platner +24

Mills has not hit 40% in any poll conducted in 2026.
March 26, 2026 at 11:41 AM
Dem Primary Crosstabs:

Men: 🔵 Platner +41
Women: 🔵 Platner +18

Democrats: 🔵 Platner +24
Indies: 🔵 Platner +33

Age 18-39: 🔵 Platner +36
Age 40-49: 🔵 Platner +20
Age 50-59: 🔵 Platner +48
Age 60-69: 🔵 Platner +20
Age 70+: 🔵 Platner +14

Platner also leads across every level of educational attainment
March 26, 2026 at 11:41 AM
Platner is the only one of the three candidates with a net positive favorability rating.

If you re-calculate favorability among only those who have heard of each candidate:

Platner: 🟢 52.5-47.5 (+5)
Mills: 🔴 43-57 (-14)
Collins: 🔴 40-60 (-20)
March 26, 2026 at 11:40 AM
Yeah that’s my read too
March 11, 2026 at 6:17 PM
March 11, 2026 at 5:57 PM
High turnout in the open seat Dem primaries in IL-07 (touches 23 wards in central/South Side/West/Northwest Sides) & IL-09 (touches 7 wards in the Far North/North Lakefront) is very important for Stratton to run up the score in Chicago — necessary to offset expected deficits downstate.
March 11, 2026 at 5:57 PM
Kelly is more likely to pull from Stratton citywide, but her congressional district only touches five wards (4, 5, 7, 9, 10 — the last of which is majority Latino and expected to favor Raja).
March 11, 2026 at 5:56 PM