Dom White
@domw.bsky.social
Chief economist at Absolute Strategy Research in London. But all of the nonsense I spout on here is mine and mine alone. RTs are not endorsements unless they are.
Pinned
Dom White
@domw.bsky.social
· Jan 10
Reposted by Dom White
This is how brief they're getting under Kevin Warsh.
Fed Rate Statement
September 16, 2026 at 6:17 PM
This is how brief they're getting under Kevin Warsh.
Only take on the Fed is this: where they set the funds rate is less important than what they’re trying to achieve. They’re not (yet) actively trying to slow demand.
September 16, 2026 at 6:18 PM
Only take on the Fed is this: where they set the funds rate is less important than what they’re trying to achieve. They’re not (yet) actively trying to slow demand.
Here's a chart you probably shouldn't pay much attention to:
September 16, 2026 at 4:17 PM
Here's a chart you probably shouldn't pay much attention to:
Clare Lombardelli has only made three public speeches since being appointed deputy governor of the Bank of England over two years ago, and her last was 16 months ago.
September 16, 2026 at 9:26 AM
Clare Lombardelli has only made three public speeches since being appointed deputy governor of the Bank of England over two years ago, and her last was 16 months ago.
Happy Slow Horses day to all who celebrate.
September 16, 2026 at 7:38 AM
Happy Slow Horses day to all who celebrate.
BBC News currently acting as the propaganda arm of the Reform party.
September 16, 2026 at 6:12 AM
BBC News currently acting as the propaganda arm of the Reform party.
Almost makes you hope the Fed doesn’t hike so that guys like this have to eat their words.
Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Phelan: It would be a mistake for the Fed to hike rates - CNBC Interview.
September 15, 2026 at 8:45 PM
Almost makes you hope the Fed doesn’t hike so that guys like this have to eat their words.
Ok, he’s just trolling now.
Bessent says strong dollar based on credibility, policy certainty reut.rs/4yDbUDC
Bessent says strong dollar based on credibility, policy certainty
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that the U.S. dollar continues to thrive as a reserve currency, with rising transaction volume globally reflecting the "credibility of our system and what this administration is doing."
reut.rs
September 15, 2026 at 4:53 PM
Ok, he’s just trolling now.
Reposted by Dom White
[extremely secretary of the treasury voice]
okay everyone, all of you, i want you to reach into you purse or briefcase or backpack and take out your checkbook.
now write a check for $5000
and address it to yourself.....BOOM
#Share To Save A Life
okay everyone, all of you, i want you to reach into you purse or briefcase or backpack and take out your checkbook.
now write a check for $5000
and address it to yourself.....BOOM
#Share To Save A Life
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: There are ways to do $5,000 checks without affecting deficit.
September 15, 2026 at 3:26 PM
[extremely secretary of the treasury voice]
okay everyone, all of you, i want you to reach into you purse or briefcase or backpack and take out your checkbook.
now write a check for $5000
and address it to yourself.....BOOM
#Share To Save A Life
okay everyone, all of you, i want you to reach into you purse or briefcase or backpack and take out your checkbook.
now write a check for $5000
and address it to yourself.....BOOM
#Share To Save A Life
Duncan is absolutely right about this. It's why Andy Haldane's 'expansionary austerity' piece in the FT a couple of weeks ago was so misguided. Because getting the fiscal stance right is only half of the formula. The public services required for your growth model to function need to be funded too.
I do worry that a lot (not all, a lot) of the left somehow lost the ability to talk about the non-macro policy benefits of public spending at some point in the 2010s.
The case for the NHS doing more knee replacements or paying teachers more isn’t that it is part of an expansionary fiscal policy.
The case for the NHS doing more knee replacements or paying teachers more isn’t that it is part of an expansionary fiscal policy.
September 15, 2026 at 9:32 AM
Duncan is absolutely right about this. It's why Andy Haldane's 'expansionary austerity' piece in the FT a couple of weeks ago was so misguided. Because getting the fiscal stance right is only half of the formula. The public services required for your growth model to function need to be funded too.
3̶%̶ ̶G̶D̶P̶ ̶g̶r̶o̶w̶t̶h̶
3̶%̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶G̶D̶P̶ ̶b̶u̶d̶g̶e̶t̶ ̶d̶e̶f̶i̶c̶i̶t̶
3̶ ̶m̶i̶l̶l̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶m̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶b̶a̶r̶r̶e̶l̶s̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶o̶i̶l̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶ ̶d̶a̶y̶
5% Treasury yield
5 million fewer barrels of oil per day in global supply
5% inflation?
3̶%̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶G̶D̶P̶ ̶b̶u̶d̶g̶e̶t̶ ̶d̶e̶f̶i̶c̶i̶t̶
3̶ ̶m̶i̶l̶l̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶m̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶b̶a̶r̶r̶e̶l̶s̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶o̶i̶l̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶ ̶d̶a̶y̶
5% Treasury yield
5 million fewer barrels of oil per day in global supply
5% inflation?
September 14, 2026 at 3:26 PM
3̶%̶ ̶G̶D̶P̶ ̶g̶r̶o̶w̶t̶h̶
3̶%̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶G̶D̶P̶ ̶b̶u̶d̶g̶e̶t̶ ̶d̶e̶f̶i̶c̶i̶t̶
3̶ ̶m̶i̶l̶l̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶m̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶b̶a̶r̶r̶e̶l̶s̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶o̶i̶l̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶ ̶d̶a̶y̶
5% Treasury yield
5 million fewer barrels of oil per day in global supply
5% inflation?
3̶%̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶G̶D̶P̶ ̶b̶u̶d̶g̶e̶t̶ ̶d̶e̶f̶i̶c̶i̶t̶
3̶ ̶m̶i̶l̶l̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶m̶o̶r̶e̶ ̶b̶a̶r̶r̶e̶l̶s̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶o̶i̶l̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶ ̶d̶a̶y̶
5% Treasury yield
5 million fewer barrels of oil per day in global supply
5% inflation?
Congrats to everyone involved! 🍾
September 14, 2026 at 2:20 PM
Congrats to everyone involved! 🍾
Reposted by Dom White
Another clear and knowable downstream consequence of letting scammers get rich off crypto was that that money would boomerang back into politics in ways that were highly likely to try to skirt around fundraising laws and distort policy incentives.
September 13, 2026 at 8:28 AM
Another clear and knowable downstream consequence of letting scammers get rich off crypto was that that money would boomerang back into politics in ways that were highly likely to try to skirt around fundraising laws and distort policy incentives.
I'm not sure who needs to know this, but the Fed now splits out hedge funds as an institutional class in the Flow of Funds report.
So we can now see just how important they've been as buyers of US Treasurys and the answer is ... meh.
So we can now see just how important they've been as buyers of US Treasurys and the answer is ... meh.
September 14, 2026 at 1:18 PM
I'm not sure who needs to know this, but the Fed now splits out hedge funds as an institutional class in the Flow of Funds report.
So we can now see just how important they've been as buyers of US Treasurys and the answer is ... meh.
So we can now see just how important they've been as buyers of US Treasurys and the answer is ... meh.
I know you’re all wondering about the AI bros’ motivations, so I asked them and this was their response:
September 13, 2026 at 1:29 PM
I know you’re all wondering about the AI bros’ motivations, so I asked them and this was their response:
If these crypto guys are so patriotic and desperate to see the country improve, maybe they’ll move back to the UK and start paying tax?
September 13, 2026 at 8:30 AM
If these crypto guys are so patriotic and desperate to see the country improve, maybe they’ll move back to the UK and start paying tax?
At some point I think you have to ask why these “one-time factors” seem to keep coming along and why do they keep getting passed through to inflation?
GS: We now expect a 25bp hike at the September FOMC meeting next week (vs. a hold previously)
We do not see a strong economic case for raising the funds rate. We continue to think that all of the overshoot of the 2% target can be attributed to one-time factors.
We do not see a strong economic case for raising the funds rate. We continue to think that all of the overshoot of the 2% target can be attributed to one-time factors.
September 12, 2026 at 11:22 AM
At some point I think you have to ask why these “one-time factors” seem to keep coming along and why do they keep getting passed through to inflation?
Reposted by Dom White
aleximas.substack.com/p/will-ai-so...
The best blog ever written on AI and growth, by a clear margin. By @aleximas.bsky.social
The best blog ever written on AI and growth, by a clear margin. By @aleximas.bsky.social
Will AI soon lead to double-digit growth?
Probably not. Here is why.
aleximas.substack.com
September 12, 2026 at 7:02 AM
aleximas.substack.com/p/will-ai-so...
The best blog ever written on AI and growth, by a clear margin. By @aleximas.bsky.social
The best blog ever written on AI and growth, by a clear margin. By @aleximas.bsky.social
So what first attracted you to the crypto deregulating Nigel Farage?
September 11, 2026 at 8:52 PM
So what first attracted you to the crypto deregulating Nigel Farage?
Reposted by Dom White
For context, the UK (the 6th largest economy in the world?) is currently consuming around 28.5GW of power
Microsoft plans to triple data center capacity to 38 Gigawatts.
September 11, 2026 at 8:34 AM
For context, the UK (the 6th largest economy in the world?) is currently consuming around 28.5GW of power
Reposted by Dom White
It's quite incredible how enormously lucky the US administration has been in terms of its economic inheritance - this is the kind of capex boom econ nerds have been yelling for since the GFC - and how determined they seem to be to squander it.
September 10, 2026 at 1:57 PM
It's quite incredible how enormously lucky the US administration has been in terms of its economic inheritance - this is the kind of capex boom econ nerds have been yelling for since the GFC - and how determined they seem to be to squander it.
Gee wizz, would you look at how quickly investors are marking up their expectations for long-run economic growth in the US!
September 10, 2026 at 1:35 PM
Gee wizz, would you look at how quickly investors are marking up their expectations for long-run economic growth in the US!
The way that the market-implied odds of a Fed hike are hinging on tomorrow's CPI data illustrates how ridiculous Warsh's lack of guidance is.
He wants markets to focus on the fundamentals, but the resulting information vacuum has been filled by Chris Waller's extreme data dependence.
He wants markets to focus on the fundamentals, but the resulting information vacuum has been filled by Chris Waller's extreme data dependence.
September 10, 2026 at 1:21 PM
The way that the market-implied odds of a Fed hike are hinging on tomorrow's CPI data illustrates how ridiculous Warsh's lack of guidance is.
He wants markets to focus on the fundamentals, but the resulting information vacuum has been filled by Chris Waller's extreme data dependence.
He wants markets to focus on the fundamentals, but the resulting information vacuum has been filled by Chris Waller's extreme data dependence.
Reposted by Dom White
This week's Trade Secrets. China traditionally clung to an export-oriented growth model to create jobs. These days, despite massive global trade imbalances, it clings even tighter because it sees exports as part of its quest for global technological advantage. So good luck getting Beijing to shift.
China’s giant trade surplus has an increasingly geopolitical twist
Partners are faced with a model that combines export-led growth with tech supremacy
as.ft.com
September 10, 2026 at 10:15 AM
This week's Trade Secrets. China traditionally clung to an export-oriented growth model to create jobs. These days, despite massive global trade imbalances, it clings even tighter because it sees exports as part of its quest for global technological advantage. So good luck getting Beijing to shift.