Eoghan Kelly
@eoghanly.bsky.social
Politics PhD and lead of the Polling London project at Queen Mary University of London.
Co-Founder of DevolvedElections.co.uk & IrishElections.ie
@devolvedelections.bsky.social @irishelection.bsky.social
Co-Founder of DevolvedElections.co.uk & IrishElections.ie
@devolvedelections.bsky.social @irishelection.bsky.social
Pinned
Eoghan Kelly
@eoghanly.bsky.social
· Jul 3
Officially a Doctor of Politics for my work looking at how devolved elections have impacted party systems in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
A useful guide to anyone interested in Electoral Reform in Ireland.
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are on the way.
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are on the way.
We've added a new (optional) table which lets you see what would happen if Irish elections were run under different systems. Here is 2024:
irishelections.ie/general/
irishelections.ie/general/
September 10, 2026 at 9:33 AM
A useful guide to anyone interested in Electoral Reform in Ireland.
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are on the way.
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are on the way.
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
90 years ago, Parliament responded to the rise of Oswald Mosley's Blackshirts by passing the Public Order Act, which banned political uniforms, private militias and the threat of force for political objects.
The debates make very resonant reading today. Here's the Liberal Robert Bernays. (Short 🧵)
The debates make very resonant reading today. Here's the Liberal Robert Bernays. (Short 🧵)
September 7, 2026 at 9:45 PM
90 years ago, Parliament responded to the rise of Oswald Mosley's Blackshirts by passing the Public Order Act, which banned political uniforms, private militias and the threat of force for political objects.
The debates make very resonant reading today. Here's the Liberal Robert Bernays. (Short 🧵)
The debates make very resonant reading today. Here's the Liberal Robert Bernays. (Short 🧵)
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie poll:
☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 40
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌳 Aontú — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
🌹 Labour — 7
💬 Independent — 6
Make your own on: irishelections.ie/general/
☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 40
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌳 Aontú — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
🌹 Labour — 7
💬 Independent — 6
Make your own on: irishelections.ie/general/
September 5, 2026 at 4:21 PM
Our projection on the latest Ireland Thinks / @independent.ie poll:
☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 40
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌳 Aontú — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
🌹 Labour — 7
💬 Independent — 6
Make your own on: irishelections.ie/general/
☘️ Sinn Féin — 45 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 40
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 39
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌳 Aontú — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
🌹 Labour — 7
💬 Independent — 6
Make your own on: irishelections.ie/general/
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
I for one am shocked to hear that JL Partners are involved in this.
I just wish there had been warning signs and that someone had contacted the Telegraph about at the time. Or written about it in the Election Report.
www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...
I just wish there had been warning signs and that someone had contacted the Telegraph about at the time. Or written about it in the Election Report.
www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...
September 4, 2026 at 8:19 AM
I for one am shocked to hear that JL Partners are involved in this.
I just wish there had been warning signs and that someone had contacted the Telegraph about at the time. Or written about it in the Election Report.
www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...
I just wish there had been warning signs and that someone had contacted the Telegraph about at the time. Or written about it in the Election Report.
www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Incl @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @qmul.bsky.social London polling.
James Cleverly strong Tory candidate for London Mayor but odds on a Sadiq Khan win
Commentary: This remains Labour's election to lose, especially if Sir Sadiq runs again as London is still a Left-leaning city
www.standard.co.uk
September 1, 2026 at 8:08 AM
Incl @mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @qmul.bsky.social London polling.
More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social in the @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy
The seat projection is from a forthcoming tool on @devolvedelections.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
The seat projection is from a forthcoming tool on @devolvedelections.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Full list of seats Labour 'could lose in London' to Reform, Tory and Green surge
City’s political map set to be transformed by fragmentation of British politics
www.standard.co.uk
August 28, 2026 at 9:24 AM
More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social in the @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy
The seat projection is from a forthcoming tool on @devolvedelections.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
The seat projection is from a forthcoming tool on @devolvedelections.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll:
Labour are stabilising under Burnham, but are still down from 2024 which will cost seats.
This includes a sneak peak at an upcoming projection from @devolvedelections.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Labour are stabilising under Burnham, but are still down from 2024 which will cost seats.
This includes a sneak peak at an upcoming projection from @devolvedelections.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Reform, Tories and Greens to hammer Labour with 'loss of up to 18 London MPs'
Tories could gain eight seats, the Greens four and Reform three from Labour
www.standard.co.uk
August 27, 2026 at 7:23 AM
More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll:
Labour are stabilising under Burnham, but are still down from 2024 which will cost seats.
This includes a sneak peak at an upcoming projection from @devolvedelections.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Labour are stabilising under Burnham, but are still down from 2024 which will cost seats.
This includes a sneak peak at an upcoming projection from @devolvedelections.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
More from @mileendinstitute.bsky.social polling the @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy today, this time on who's voting for Reform.
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Revealed: The surprise Londoners backing Nigel Farage's Reform
Reform voters in the capital may not be as old as many people might think
www.standard.co.uk
August 26, 2026 at 7:59 AM
More from @mileendinstitute.bsky.social polling the @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy today, this time on who's voting for Reform.
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll leads the Standard this morning, Labour have a solid lead in the next London mayoral race. The Tories and Reform scrapping for second.
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Sadiq Khan may face Laila Cunningham in London mayor race run-off, shock poll reveals
Nigel Farage’s party may beat the Conservatives in the battle for second place after first choice votes are counted in the next London mayoral contest
www.standard.co.uk
August 25, 2026 at 8:03 AM
Our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll leads the Standard this morning, Labour have a solid lead in the next London mayoral race. The Tories and Reform scrapping for second.
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Our new Scottish Indy Calculator is out today in the @scotnational.bsky.social, move the sliders to shift party supporters and demographics one way or the other.
devolvedelections.co.uk/scottish-ind...
www.thenational.scot/news/2646638...
devolvedelections.co.uk/scottish-ind...
www.thenational.scot/news/2646638...
New interactive polling tool maps how Scottish independence can be won or lost
A NEW polling tool which maps out how Scottish independence could be won or lost has been launched ...
www.thenational.scot
August 16, 2026 at 9:30 AM
Our new Scottish Indy Calculator is out today in the @scotnational.bsky.social, move the sliders to shift party supporters and demographics one way or the other.
devolvedelections.co.uk/scottish-ind...
www.thenational.scot/news/2646638...
devolvedelections.co.uk/scottish-ind...
www.thenational.scot/news/2646638...
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Our projection on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll.
☘️ SF — 21
🦁 DUP — 17
🌹 SDLP — 15
🔷 UUP — 14
Ⓣ TUV — 9
🤝 AP — 8
🌱 GP — 3
✊ PBP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
☘️ SF — 21
🦁 DUP — 17
🌹 SDLP — 15
🔷 UUP — 14
Ⓣ TUV — 9
🤝 AP — 8
🌱 GP — 3
✊ PBP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
July 27, 2026 at 9:12 AM
Our projection on the latest @belfasttelegraph.co.uk / @lucidtalk.bsky.social poll.
☘️ SF — 21
🦁 DUP — 17
🌹 SDLP — 15
🔷 UUP — 14
Ⓣ TUV — 9
🤝 AP — 8
🌱 GP — 3
✊ PBP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
☘️ SF — 21
🦁 DUP — 17
🌹 SDLP — 15
🔷 UUP — 14
Ⓣ TUV — 9
🤝 AP — 8
🌱 GP — 3
✊ PBP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
What can Andy Burnham actually do?
More charisma and better communication skills will be helpful, but what about the structural problems facing the Government? Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social reflects on what's in Burnham's power to do as the new Prime Minister.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
More charisma and better communication skills will be helpful, but what about the structural problems facing the Government? Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social reflects on what's in Burnham's power to do as the new Prime Minister.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
What can Andy Burnham actually do? | LSE British Politics
Andy Burnham might be more charismatic than Keir Starmer but the problems he is inheriting go beyond personality. Can he really make a difference?
blogs.lse.ac.uk
July 16, 2026 at 10:15 AM
What can Andy Burnham actually do?
More charisma and better communication skills will be helpful, but what about the structural problems facing the Government? Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social reflects on what's in Burnham's power to do as the new Prime Minister.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
More charisma and better communication skills will be helpful, but what about the structural problems facing the Government? Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social reflects on what's in Burnham's power to do as the new Prime Minister.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today!
Labour — 11 Seats
Greens — 5
Conservatives — 4
Reform — 3
Liberal Democrats — 2
From:
@mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Labour — 11 Seats
Greens — 5
Conservatives — 4
Reform — 3
Liberal Democrats — 2
From:
@mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
July 13, 2026 at 3:10 PM
Our latest projection for the London Assembly in the Evening Standard today!
Labour — 11 Seats
Greens — 5
Conservatives — 4
Reform — 3
Liberal Democrats — 2
From:
@mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Labour — 11 Seats
Greens — 5
Conservatives — 4
Reform — 3
Liberal Democrats — 2
From:
@mileendinstitute.bsky.social / @savanta.bsky.social
devolvedelections.co.uk/london/
Our latest Mile End Institure/Savanta poll finds Labour on course to win the next Mayor of London election & remain the largest party in the Assembly.
@savanta.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @devolvedelections.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
@savanta.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @devolvedelections.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Sadiq Khan 'on course' to win fourth term as London Mayor
Exclusive: Sir Sadiq would be re-elected to City Hall in 2028 after second preference votes are transferred, according to a new poll
www.standard.co.uk
July 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM
Our latest Mile End Institure/Savanta poll finds Labour on course to win the next Mayor of London election & remain the largest party in the Assembly.
@savanta.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @devolvedelections.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
@savanta.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @devolvedelections.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Our projection based on the latest RedC / @businesspost.bsky.social poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32
🟪 Social Democrats — 28
💬 Independent — 10
🌹 Labour — 7
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
✊ PBP-S — 5
🌳 Aontú — 4
🌱 Green — 1
irishelections.ie
☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32
🟪 Social Democrats — 28
💬 Independent — 10
🌹 Labour — 7
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
✊ PBP-S — 5
🌳 Aontú — 4
🌱 Green — 1
irishelections.ie
June 28, 2026 at 3:53 PM
Our projection based on the latest RedC / @businesspost.bsky.social poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32
🟪 Social Democrats — 28
💬 Independent — 10
🌹 Labour — 7
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
✊ PBP-S — 5
🌳 Aontú — 4
🌱 Green — 1
irishelections.ie
☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 32
🟪 Social Democrats — 28
💬 Independent — 10
🌹 Labour — 7
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
✊ PBP-S — 5
🌳 Aontú — 4
🌱 Green — 1
irishelections.ie
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
1/5
Delighted to say that my first book, Explaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After Brexit, is now available for pre-order with Routledge.
It’s been a long road, and I’m very glad to be able to share it.
www.routledge.com/Explaining-N...
Delighted to say that my first book, Explaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After Brexit, is now available for pre-order with Routledge.
It’s been a long road, and I’m very glad to be able to share it.
www.routledge.com/Explaining-N...
Explaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After Brexit
This book explores the European stances of three of Northern Ireland’s political parties, culminating in one of the most tumultuous episodes in recent UK, Irish, and European politics.
It examines how...
www.routledge.com
May 21, 2026 at 7:42 AM
1/5
Delighted to say that my first book, Explaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After Brexit, is now available for pre-order with Routledge.
It’s been a long road, and I’m very glad to be able to share it.
www.routledge.com/Explaining-N...
Delighted to say that my first book, Explaining Northern Ireland Party Stances on the EU: Dividing Lines Before and After Brexit, is now available for pre-order with Routledge.
It’s been a long road, and I’m very glad to be able to share it.
www.routledge.com/Explaining-N...
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed.
Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central.
irishelections.ie/bye-elections/
Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central.
irishelections.ie/bye-elections/
May 22, 2026 at 9:05 PM
Our calls of Dublin Central and Galway West as polls closed.
Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central.
irishelections.ie/bye-elections/
Based on national swing, Fine Gael should take Galway West and the Social Democrats should take Dublin Central.
irishelections.ie/bye-elections/
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."
MRPs: A false dawn - UK Election Analysis
Dr Eoghan Kelly Postdoctoral Researcher leading the Mile End Institute’s, Queen Mary University of London’s Polling London Project. He has lectured on quantitative methods at Queen’s University, Belfa...
www.electionanalysis.uk
May 18, 2026 at 11:40 AM
"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
I have some polling-retrospective content coming out later this week, but I can't do much better on the Q of MRPs than @eoghanly.bsky.social.
On aggregate, they were useless and negatively impacted election coverage.
On aggregate, they were useless and negatively impacted election coverage.
"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."
MRPs: A false dawn - UK Election Analysis
Dr Eoghan Kelly Postdoctoral Researcher leading the Mile End Institute’s, Queen Mary University of London’s Polling London Project. He has lectured on quantitative methods at Queen’s University, Belfa...
www.electionanalysis.uk
May 18, 2026 at 6:13 PM
I have some polling-retrospective content coming out later this week, but I can't do much better on the Q of MRPs than @eoghanly.bsky.social.
On aggregate, they were useless and negatively impacted election coverage.
On aggregate, they were useless and negatively impacted election coverage.
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
This is quite the story.
BBC obtains Northamptonshire Police video of woman's arrest
Nadine Buzzard-Quashie speaks for first time about her
www.bbc.co.uk
April 30, 2026 at 6:48 AM
This is quite the story.
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
We ran the election 1000 times using the Monte Carlo method, these are the most likely outcomes for each constituency.
You can instantly run 1000 more variations here:
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
You can instantly run 1000 more variations here:
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
April 30, 2026 at 9:31 AM
We ran the election 1000 times using the Monte Carlo method, these are the most likely outcomes for each constituency.
You can instantly run 1000 more variations here:
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
You can instantly run 1000 more variations here:
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Exclusive: Polling suggests the SNP is clinging to leads in three Edinburgh seats.
But the Lib Dems and Greens are in pursuit.
And projections suggest it is just as "reasonably likely" that the SNP loses or wins all three.
@heraldscotland.bsky.social
www.heraldscotland.com/news/2606185...
But the Lib Dems and Greens are in pursuit.
And projections suggest it is just as "reasonably likely" that the SNP loses or wins all three.
@heraldscotland.bsky.social
www.heraldscotland.com/news/2606185...
SNP could be set for major losses in three Edinburgh battleground constituencies
The SNP faces significant challenges from the Liberal Democrats, Labour and the Green Party in four regional constituencies.
www.heraldscotland.com
April 29, 2026 at 9:52 AM
Exclusive: Polling suggests the SNP is clinging to leads in three Edinburgh seats.
But the Lib Dems and Greens are in pursuit.
And projections suggest it is just as "reasonably likely" that the SNP loses or wins all three.
@heraldscotland.bsky.social
www.heraldscotland.com/news/2606185...
But the Lib Dems and Greens are in pursuit.
And projections suggest it is just as "reasonably likely" that the SNP loses or wins all three.
@heraldscotland.bsky.social
www.heraldscotland.com/news/2606185...
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
In our Monte Carlo system, which tests 1000x variations of the election, Reform win the most seats 59% of the time with Plaid Cymru winning 41%.
Their mean number of seats is just 1 more than Plaid's so its very, very close.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Their mean number of seats is just 1 more than Plaid's so its very, very close.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
April 29, 2026 at 8:35 AM
In our Monte Carlo system, which tests 1000x variations of the election, Reform win the most seats 59% of the time with Plaid Cymru winning 41%.
Their mean number of seats is just 1 more than Plaid's so its very, very close.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Their mean number of seats is just 1 more than Plaid's so its very, very close.
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Our Monte Carlo system which runs 1000 variations of this election generally finds:
SNP 58-62
Reform 18-22
Lab 16-18
Green 10-13,
Con 10-12
LD 9-11
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
SNP 58-62
Reform 18-22
Lab 16-18
Green 10-13,
Con 10-12
LD 9-11
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
April 27, 2026 at 12:24 PM
Our Monte Carlo system which runs 1000 variations of this election generally finds:
SNP 58-62
Reform 18-22
Lab 16-18
Green 10-13,
Con 10-12
LD 9-11
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
SNP 58-62
Reform 18-22
Lab 16-18
Green 10-13,
Con 10-12
LD 9-11
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
On the topic of MRPs being effectively useless, I think the Telegraph/JL Poll messed up their own D'Hondt calculations.
The real numbers are:
SNP: 57
Labour:21
Conservatives: 13
Liberal Democrats: 8
Greens: 11
Reform: 19
This is really basic stuff.
The real numbers are:
SNP: 57
Labour:21
Conservatives: 13
Liberal Democrats: 8
Greens: 11
Reform: 19
This is really basic stuff.
April 20, 2026 at 4:41 PM
On the topic of MRPs being effectively useless, I think the Telegraph/JL Poll messed up their own D'Hondt calculations.
The real numbers are:
SNP: 57
Labour:21
Conservatives: 13
Liberal Democrats: 8
Greens: 11
Reform: 19
This is really basic stuff.
The real numbers are:
SNP: 57
Labour:21
Conservatives: 13
Liberal Democrats: 8
Greens: 11
Reform: 19
This is really basic stuff.