Eoghan Kelly
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eoghanly.bsky.social
Eoghan Kelly
@eoghanly.bsky.social
250 followers 190 following 48 posts
Politics PhD and lead of the Polling London project at Queen Mary University of London.

Co-Founder of DevolvedElections.co.uk & IrishElections.ie

@devolvedelections.bsky.social @irishelection.bsky.social
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eoghanly.bsky.social
Not yet, but we're working on it. It'll be here when it's ready to go.

devolvedelections.co.uk
Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool
Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
devolvedelections.co.uk
September 1, 2026 at 8:23 AM
eoghanly.bsky.social
There was indeed!

www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
'Burnham bounce' in London could stop voters deserting Labour to the Greens
Exclusive: One in four Green and Lib Dem voters in London say they are more likely to vote Labour with Burnham as leader, according to new poll
www.standard.co.uk
July 13, 2026 at 10:13 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
devolvedelections.bsky.social
We ran the election 1000 times using the Monte Carlo method, these are the most likely outcomes for each constituency.

You can instantly run 1000 more variations here:
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Top 5 most likely seat outcomes for each constituency (photo 1 of 2). More info: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects Top 5 most likely seat outcomes for each constituency (photo 2 of 2). More info: https://devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
April 30, 2026 at 9:31 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
devolvedelections.bsky.social
In our Monte Carlo system, which tests 1000x variations of the election, Reform win the most seats 59% of the time with Plaid Cymru winning 41%.

Their mean number of seats is just 1 more than Plaid's so its very, very close.

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
Mean number of seats: Reform 33 Plaid 32 Labour 14 Green 8 Consevative 6 Lib Dem 3
April 29, 2026 at 8:35 AM