Angola’s new Cabinda refinery exported about 86% of the refined products covered by its disclosed sales data during its first months of commercial operation, with heavy fuel oil and naphtha accounting for most volumes while relatively little diesel reached the domestic market, Expansão reported on September 8. Of 308,269 barrels sold, 193,108 were exported as heavy fuel oil (HFO) and another 72,042 as naphtha, while 43,119 barrels of diesel were supplied in Cabinda province. The Cabinda refinery is 90% owned by London-based emerging-markets investment group Gemcorp and 10% by state oil company Sonangol. The export-heavy sales mix partly reflects the refinery’s Phase 1 configuration. Previously, Gemcorp said naphtha and HFO would be exported, while cleaner fuels including diesel and jet fuel would be directed to the domestic market. A planned second phase is intended to add hydrocracking capacity and increase production of diesel and jet fuel. Commercial operations began on March 11, and about 770,000 barrels of crude had been processed by the end of July. According to Expansão, the refinery said that 110,000 barrels of that crude were associated with diesel production, 165,000 with naphtha and 406,000 with HFO. Spread across the period, that works out at average throughput of roughly 5,385 barrels per day (bpd), barely 18% of the plant’s 30,000-bpd Phase 1 capacity. By August, however, the Ministry of Mineral Resources, Petroleum and Gas was reporting an operating rate of 15,750 bpd, suggesting that production accelerated sharply once the initial start-up phase was past. Raising average daily throughput remains a government priority for the second half of 2026. The arithmetic is not entirely tidy. The crude-processing breakdown supplied by the refinery attributes 110,000 barrels to diesel, 165,000 to naphtha and 406,000 to HFO, a total of 681,000 barrels — 89,000 short of the reported 770,000 barrels processed. The refinery separately reported producing about 15,000 barrels of Jet A-1 aviation fuel but did not disclose sales figures for it. The Cabinda refinery's first 30,000-bpd phase cost $473mn, according to the ministry, and Gemcorp is already planning a second phase that would double capacity to 60,000 bpd. Expansão puts the additional investment at about $700mn, with technical studies due for completion in November 2026 and construction targeted for the start of the third quarter of 2027. The Offshore Import and Export System, designed to let products be shipped directly from the Cabinda plant, was 61.2% physically complete in August. That infrastructure matters because Angola’s refining paradox remains striking. The country produces about 1.05mn barrels of crude oil per day and ranks among Africa’s leading exporters, yet has historically imported roughly 70% of the refined petroleum products it consumes. The government now wants to turn that mismatch into an industrial opportunity, using new refineries, storage and logistics assets both to substitute imports and to build a regional petroleum-trading business. Cabinda is only one part of that effort. At Lobito, a planned 200,000-bpd refinery was 25% complete in August, according to the petroleum ministry. Angola’s 2026 borrowing plan provides for a state guarantee covering $4.8bn of financing Sonangol is seeking from China Development Bank, after the funding failed to materialise in 2025. The Barra do Dande Ocean Terminal has also expanded Angola’s storage network. The IRDP said installed storage capacity reached about 1.27mn cubic metres by the end of 2025 following the start of operations at the terminal, slightly above the 1.26mn-cubic-metre target under the 2023-2027 development plan. Together with new refining capacity and improved export links, the build-out is intended to give Angola a larger role in supplying neighbouring markets such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia.

Britain is set to expand sanctions against Iran’s energy, financial and transport sectors from September 29, the government said in an announcement on September 8, seen by Newsbase. The latest British package restores sectoral restrictions lifted under the 2015 nuclear agreement otherwise known as the JCPOA, following Britain’s reinstatement of UN sanctions in October 2025. It extends pressure beyond individual designations to industries and services that the government says support Iran’s nuclear programme. The Iran (Sanctions) (Amendment) Regulations 2026 amend the country’s existing nuclear and wider Iran sanctions regimes, adding restrictions on trade, financing and access to British ports and services in line with European and following US sanctions. Trade controls cover energy equipment and technology, oil and petroleum products, natural gas, petrochemicals, maritime equipment, precious metals, diamonds and sectoral software. The prohibitions extend beyond exports to supply through third countries, technology transfers and related services. In addition, nine new schedules define the controlled goods and technology, including graphite, metals and additional dual-use items. Financial measures restrict loans, credit and investment involving persons connected with Iran, alongside banking relationships, insurance and dealings in Iranian sovereign bonds. Further, the released information says the transport provisions expand powers to designate ships, restrict their operations and associated services, deny port access and detain vessels. Iranian cargo aircraft will also be prohibited from landing in Britain, subject to limited exceptions. British nuclear controls will be updated to match International Atomic Energy Agency lists, with restrictions covering related technical assistance, financial services and brokering. Businesses have been told to review the new schedules, assess their exposure and establish whether transactions are prohibited or require a licence. Subject to parliamentary approval, exemptions will permit certain activities supporting Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz gas field, which supplies European markets. The government said the arrangements maintain longstanding policy and align with similar US and EU exemptions. Iran’s Naftiran Intertrade Company (NICO) holds a 10% stake in Shah Deniz, the gas project in Azerbaijan, with that ownership continuing despite increased sanctions by the UK. Azerbaijani authorities have yet to comment on the announcement regarding its stake in the Shah Deniz field. A new Office of Trade Sanctions Implementation general licence is due to take effect on September 29 in London, with an amended Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation licence covering related financial activities to be published and take effect on the same date.

DMEA - Downstream Middle East & Africa Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery plans to invest $14.3bn to double processing capacity to 1.4mn barrels per day (bpd) by 2029 as it moves ahead with an initial public offering expected to be Africa’s largest ever. The privately held refinery signed offering documents with advisers and other transaction parties in Lagos on September 7. Its IPO prospectus sets out the expansion from a current crude-processing capacity of 700,000 bpd, 50,000 bpd above its original nameplate capacity. The company plans to offer 4.1bn ordinary shares at NGN525 each, raising about NGN2.15 trillion ($1.63bn) if fully subscribed. Reuters reported that subscriptions are scheduled to run from September 14 to October 13, with trading potentially beginning in late November. The offer includes an option to issue up to 30% more shares in the event of excess demand, subject to regulatory approval. The refinery has secured a $400mn underwriting commitment for the IPO as part of a wider $1bn programme structured by Dubai-based advisory firm Marob Strategies and Consulting and Washington-based investment group Lilium Capital. The commitment, provided through Lilium subsidiary Pan-African Refinery Investment SPV, is equivalent to roughly 25% of the $1.63bn base offer. The $400mn commitment is due to be implemented when the offer launches, subject to market conditions, corporate and regulatory approvals and applicable securities laws, and therefore does not represent proceeds already received. The $1bn programme also included a completed and fully funded $600mn private placement. Reuters reported in August, citing a source familiar with the matter, that the refinery had submitted an application to Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission for a $5bn IPO, although the final size had not then been determined. The smaller approved offer may be easier for the market to absorb, while increasing the focus on valuation. At $1.63bn, the base IPO would raise an amount equal to about 11% of the stated $14.3bn expansion cost, although the proceeds are not necessarily earmarked solely for the expansion. Aliko Dangote, founder of Nigerian industrial conglomerate Dangote Group and majority shareholder in the refinery, has said the company has other funding options, including cash generation, bonds and private placements, and that broadening African ownership is a central objective of the offering. At the NGN525 offer price, the refinery’s 120.13bn existing registered shares imply a pre-IPO equity valuation of about $47bn. Including the 4.1bn new shares in the base offer would increase the implied post-IPO market capitalisation to roughly $49bn if the offer is fully subscribed, before any additional shares issued under the up-to-30% overallotment option. The IPO prospectus showed an after-tax profit of $1.82bn in the first half of 2026, compared with a $476mn loss for the whole of 2025, according to Reuters. The $20bn refinery, which began operations in 2024, has reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuels while exporting products including jet fuel and diesel elsewhere in Africa and Europe. Chief executive David Bird told Reuters on September 8 that the expansion would add petrochemical and refining units, increase import substitution and allow the refinery to produce different specifications of diesel. Separately, Aliko Dangote said United Arab Emirates state oil company ADNOC had expressed interest in investing in the refinery alongside other potential partners, although he gave no details, citing confidentiality agreements. ADNOC is in talks to invest in refining businesses in Thailand and Nigeria as it seeks to secure outlets for crude and expand its international fuel-trading operations, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the discussions.

Global nuclear power generation reached a new record in 2025, with Asia accounting for much of the increase as China, India, South Korea and Japan expand or revive their nuclear programmes. Nuclear reactors worldwide generated 2,702 TWh of electricity in 2025, up 35 TWh from 2,667 TWh in 2024, according to the World Nuclear Association’s World Nuclear Outlook Report 2026. Nuclear supplied about 9% of global electricity. The report, published on September 7, says nuclear generation has recovered steadily since the declines that followed the Fukushima Daiichi accident in March, 2011. The strongest growth has come from Asia, where nuclear output was about two-and-a-half times higher in 2025 than in 2012, according to WNA. The figures underline the increasingly important role of Asian markets in the global nuclear industry. China alone generated 448.4 TWh of nuclear electricity in 2025, equivalent to 5% of its electricity generation, according to WNA data. China had 64 operable reactors with 64GW of net capacity and a further 37 reactors, representing about 42GW, under construction. Another 44 reactors were classified as planned. China was also the main source of new construction activity in 2025. Eleven reactors started construction worldwide, nine of them in China and two in Russia, according to the World Nuclear Outlook Report. Three reactors were connected to the grid during the year, including one in China and one in India. Seven reactors were permanently shut down. The pace has continued into 2026. Four Chinese reactors had been connected to the grid by August 1, including Taipingling 1, San'ao 1, Taipingling 2 and Changjiang-3, according to the WNA reactor database. Construction has also started on several additional Chinese units, including Xuwei 1, Jinqimen 2, Taipingling 4 and Zhaoyuan 2. The Zhaoyuan development is part of a six-unit project in Shandong province. The first safety-related concrete for the second unit was poured on September 5, according to World Nuclear News. China's position contrasts with many mature nuclear markets, where ageing fleets and plant closures have limited growth. WNA identifies China, Russia and South Korea as the world's nuclear "pacesetters", reflecting their continuing programmes of serial reactor construction. South Korea remains another major Asian nuclear market. Its 26 operating reactors generated 175.5 TWh in 2025, supplying 31% of national electricity generation, according to WNA. Four reactors with a combined gross capacity of 5.7GW were under construction. South Korea has also retained support for new nuclear construction. President Lee Jae-myung confirmed in January that the government would proceed with two new reactors under the country's 11th Basic Plan. Japan is also rebuilding its nuclear generation after the post-Fukushima retreat. Its reactors generated 94.7 TWh in 2025, supplying 9.4% of electricity generation, according to WNA data. Japan had 33 operable reactors at the latest count, with two reactors classified as under construction. India is another important source of growth. Its reactors generated 49.1 TWh in 2025, equivalent to 3.2% of electricity generation. The country has 24 operable reactors and eight under construction, with a further 14 classified as planned. The Asian expansion extends beyond the region's largest economies. Pakistan generated 23.7 TWh from nuclear power in 2025, supplying 16.5% of electricity generation, according to WNA data. It had one reactor under construction and six operational. Bangladesh, meanwhile, had two reactors classified as under construction, although it did not yet have nuclear generation in 2025. The broader regional pipeline is substantial. WNA says about three-quarters of reactors under construction worldwide are in Asia. It currently counts about 150 operable reactors in the region, around 55 under construction and firm plans for another 60-70, with many more projects proposed. The expansion is increasingly concentrated in countries with established nuclear supply chains. China, South Korea and India are developing domestic engineering and manufacturing capabilities alongside their reactor fleets. WNA says this can help the region move from individual projects towards repeated construction programmes. WNA says serial construction of standardised reactor designs can make project delivery more predictable and allow utilities, manufacturers and contractors to retain expertise between projects. China is cited as an example of this approach, with Zhangzhou 2 taking 62 months to build, compared with 163 months for India's Rajasthan 7. The existing global fleet is also performing strongly. The average nuclear capacity factor rose to 83.7% in 2025, according to WNA. The association found no general deterioration in performance among reactors operating for more than 40 years. That strengthens the case for extending the operating lives of existing plants while new reactors are built. WNA says maintaining and extending the existing fleet is among the fastest and most cost-effective ways to secure additional low-carbon generation. For its forward-looking projection, the new report uses global operating nuclear capacity of 423GWe on a gross basis. It projects that capacity could reach 1,457GWe by 2050 if national targets are achieved, existing reactors continue operating within the assumptions of the report, and reactors currently under construction, planned or proposed are delivered. That would exceed the tripling goal endorsed by 38 countries since the COP28 climate summit by more than 200GWe, according to WNA. The project pipeline has strengthened since the previous outlook. Capacity under construction increased from 76GWe to 82GWe, while planned capacity rose from 107GWe to 114GWe. Proposed capacity declined from 294GWe to 289GWe and potential capacity from 24GWe to 13GWe. The shift is significant because it suggests some nuclear ambitions are moving closer to identifiable projects. But the WNA warns that more than 550GWe of capacity needed to meet national targets has yet to be associated with projects classified as under construction, planned or proposed. The challenge is therefore less about stated ambition than delivery. Financing, regulation, manufacturing capacity, skilled labour, fuel supplies and project management will determine how much of the proposed expansion actually reaches the grid. Asia is likely to remain central to that process. China is already the world's largest nuclear construction market, while India, South Korea and Japan are maintaining or expanding their programmes. Pakistan and Bangladesh are adding further projects to a regional market that has become the principal centre of global nuclear construction. For the industry, the 2025 generation record therefore represents more than a rebound in output. It reflects a structural shift towards Asia in both nuclear generation and new-build activity. WNA's forecast remains conditional. Achieving 1,457GWe by 2050 would require governments and industry to turn national targets into sustained construction programmes. The report says construction start rates would ultimately need to rise to around six times current levels to deliver the tripling ambition. For now, the evidence is clearest in Asia. The region is producing more nuclear electricity, commissioning more reactors and starting more construction than most other parts of the world. China remains the dominant market, but the expansion also encompasses South Korea, India, Japan and emerging programmes in countries including Pakistan and Bangladesh. The record set in 2025 is therefore closely linked to the region's longer-term build-out. The WNA's projections point to China and India among the major sources of future capacity growth, alongside France, Russia and the US.

Uganda has appointed global commodities trader Vitol to market its newly branded Pearl Sweet crude, with the country targeting its first exports from early 2027 as its oil infrastructure nears completion. Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) said Vitol would market the government's and UNOC's allocation of the crude. President Yoweri Museveni formally unveiled the Pearl Sweet name on September 2 during a visit to the Kingfisher Development Area in Kikuube District. The name combines Uganda's “Pearl of Africa” identity with the petroleum-industry term “sweet”, referring to the crude's relatively low sulphur content. Uganda's Petroleum Authority has put sulphur content at about 0.16% by weight. “We are here to celebrate and give this baby (oil) a name. These people have told me to name this baby Pearl Sweet Petroleum. We call it sweet because it does not have sulphur. When it has sulphur, it is more expensive to remove the sulphur. This one either has little or no sulphur,” Museveni said, as quoted by UBC. The Energy Ministry said the broader Kingfisher development was about 80% complete, while facilities required for first oil were 98% ready. Its Central Processing Facility, designed to handle 40,000 barrels a day, has reached mechanical completion and is undergoing commissioning. Uganda's crude is waxy, with a pour point of about 40°C, meaning it must be heated to remain flowable during transportation. The 1,443-km East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), which was 92.7% complete as of August 31, will carry the crude to Tanzania's Tanga port. CNOOC Uganda Limited, a subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed Chinese state-owned oil producer CNOOC Limited (HKEX: 0883), operates Kingfisher, while French energy major TotalEnergies (EPA: TTE) operates the Tilenga project. Together, the two developments are expected to produce up to 230,000 barrels a day at peak output, comprising about 40,000 barrels a day from Kingfisher and 190,000 barrels a day from Tilenga. Museveni said Uganda should use its petroleum resources to support industrialisation rather than simply export crude. “The petroleum industry would push us very far,” he said, referring to the planned refinery's potential to produce vehicle fuel, aviation fuel and other petroleum products. Museveni said Kingfisher's associated gas could generate up to 80MW of electricity, with additional gas used to produce LPG. He also argued that local refining could reduce some export-pipeline and petroleum-import costs. “When we pump our crude to Tanga, we pay $12.77 per barrel just for transport. When we refine our oil here, we don’t pay that money. We shall no longer spend $2bn importing petroleum,” he is quoted as saying by UBC. Uganda's planned refinery remains under development, and the cost savings cited by Museveni are government projections rather than realised gains. Uganda is preparing for commercial oil production, with Kingfisher, Tilenga and EACOP required to operate in coordination before full-scale exports begin. UNOC and Vitol expect the first Pearl Sweet export cargoes from early 2027.

Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have commenced doing ship-to-ship (STS) transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz for LNG cargoes, Reuters reported on September 2. According to ship track firms, deliveries have been able to be completed using this structure which breaks up the risk of passing through the Strait of Hormuz from the ocean voyage to Asian buyers, including Japan and India. With LNG vessels coming under fire from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Qatar and the UAE have shown a willingness to adopt this approach and send smaller, less expensive tankers through the strait and reduce the risk of expensive LNG tankers being damaged by missiles and projectiles. The vessel GasLog Shanghai, owned by Greek shipping line GasLog, was stuck off the coast of Oman while exiting the Strait of Hormuz on July 31. The vessel transported a cargo from Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial Complex before facilitating an STS transfer off the coast of Oman with GasLog Savannah in late August. In early July, a missile fired by Iranian forces hit the Al Rekayyat LNG tanker as it was attempting to exit the strait. In mid-August, data from Kpler and Vortexa revealed that an STS transfer was carried out along the UAE’s east coast with Tembek, another LNG tanker belonging to QatarEnergy. Tembek delivered the cargo of super-chilled fuel to India’s Dahej terminal in western India on August 31, according to Kpler data. Additionally, a vessel of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) also carried out an STS transfer off the coast of Oman. The Mraweh transferred its cargo to LNG Enugu in mid- August, according to Kpler and Vortexa. The cargo of super-chilled fuel was loaded from Das Island and LNG Enugu is now en route to Japan, Kpler data shows. According to Kpler, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by almost 90% from pre-war levels. Prior to the conflict erupting, shipping traffic averaged between 125 to 140 vessels daily crossing the strait.

Pakistan has begun a new bidding round for the purchase of an LNG cargo for September after two failed attempts due to Islamabad being spooked by sky-high prices, domestic media Dunya News reported on September 6. State-run Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) has begun a new round of tenders with international LNG traders for delivery of a cargo between September 12 and 16. The deadline to make an offer is September 8. Islamabad is desperate to procure an LNG cargo having failed in two previous attempts. Prices for LNG cargoes on the spot market have soared with Iran closing to traffic the Strait of Hormuz, which serves as a key chokepoint for LNG trade with about one-fifth of global supply passing through. PLL’s most recent attempt to buy an emergency cargo fell through after traders sought a price that was three times higher than pre-war prices. BP Singapore provided the lone offer at $26.969 per million British thermal units for a 140,000 cubic metre cargo to be delivered to Port Qasim in Karachi. Had PLL accepted the bid, the cargo would have provided enough LNG to cover about seven days of national power-sector demand, or as many as 10 days if supplemented with domestic natural gas. LNG prices on the spot market have soared as Europe has begun scooping up cargoes ahead of the winter season. With Europe’s gas storage levels having plummeted from high prices, government officials in the bloc have now begun ramping up purchases of cargoes, particularly from the world’s biggest exporter, the US. In August, Europe bought 5.84mn metric tonnes, representing 55% of total exports and 1mn metric tonnes more than in July. Meanwhile in Asia, a heatwave in South Korea and Japan in July also led to major demand for cargoes of the super-chilled fuel. Pakistan relies heavily on imports of the super-chilled fuel, particularly Qatari supply, which has been under force majeure since Iranian attacks on two QatarEnergy facilities in March. In late July, Qatar, which is the world’s second largest exporter of LNG, extended force majeure through to mid-October on deliveries of LNG cargoes to some of its Asian buyers.

Equinor has received its firs LNG cargo from the US Gulf Coast with a delivery made from Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass facility, the Norwegian energy firm announced on September 2. The shipment from Cheniere’s facility in Louisiana commences the beginning of a 15-year deal between Equinor and the US’s largest LNG developer, which was signed in 2022. Under the terms of the agreement, Cheniere will provide around 1.75mn tonnes per year (tpy) of the super-chilled fuel on a free-on-board (FOB) basis. The US LNG giant will ramp up deliveries to reach the full 1.75mn tpy by the second half of 2027. Meanwhile, a similar 15-year sales and purchase agreement (SPA) was also inked between the two companies in 2023. Deliveries from that deal are expected to commence in 2027 with shipments ramped up by 2030 but are subject to a final investment decision (FID) on the first train of Sabine Pass’ planned expansion. An engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract with contractor Bechtel for the first phase of the expansion has been signed, however FID is not expected to be taken until early 2027. "Today's milestone further strengthens Equinor's position as a reliable supplier of energy to customers around the world," Helle Østergaard Kristiansen, Equinor’s senior vice president for gas and power said in a statement. "The United States will play an increasingly important role in our global LNG portfolio, complementing the strength of our existing gas position and providing additional flexibility to serve customers in Europe and Asia," Kristiansen added. The two deals enable the Norwegian company to double its global LNG portfolio by 2030 as Norway seeks to strengthen its energy security as Europe turns its back on Russian fossil fuels with a ban on Russian LNG to come into force in January and pipeline gas commencing November 2027.

Back on June 4, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Russian leader Vladimir Putin were all smiles amid the ceremonial groundbreaking for construction of Uzbekistan’s first cluster of nuclear reactors, to be built by Russia’s nuclear entity Rosatom. “I am confident that you have chosen the best option for Uzbekistan out of all those offered,” Putin told Mirziyoyev at the time. Just three months later, it is clear that Mirziyoyev is having second thoughts about his selection of Rosatom. On September 2, his presidential press service published a lengthy update on the construction of the integrated nuclear plant. Rosatom was not mentioned once in the announcement. What the statement did mention was that Mirziyoyev had endorsed the creation of a new consortium to oversee the construction process. “To improve project management, strengthen technical oversight, and conduct independent assessments of technological solutions, it is proposed to establish a joint venture with leading international engineering companies,” it emphasised. The statement did not delve into details about the envisioned consortium’s composition. The lack of specifics leaves a lot of room for speculation about Rosatom’s future role in the project. What seems certain is that the Russian entity, long a dominant force in the global nuclear energy market, no longer enjoys the Uzbek government’s trust to get the job done on its own. Uzbek frustration with Rosatom seems to have been building for a while, at least since the start of 2026. In January, Uzbek authorities postponed the start of nuclear plant construction, which was originally scheduled for March. Then Mirziyoyev made a surprise announcement in August that “extensive preparatory work” had been done for the construction of a second nuclear plant. He did not say where and when construction would start, who would build it, or how much it would cost. Reading between the lines, the September 2 statement supports the notion that there is lots of underlying tension in Uzbek-Russian relations these days. Putin has perhaps been more overt in signalling displeasure with the recent course of bilateral relations. But Mirziyoyev’s Rosatom omission indicates that discontent is running both ways. In another move sure to vex Putin, Mirziyoyev on September 3 met in Tashkent with retiring US Senator Steve Daines just a few days after the two met in Bishkek, along with Trump administration special envoy Sergio Gor. Details about Daines’ second meeting were scant. But two meetings over a four-day span in two different cities suggest some serious discussions took place. Over the past year, the Trump Administration has expressed interest in developing nuclear energy cooperation with Central Asian states, especially in the development of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). The central issue with the Uzbek-Rosatom relationship seems to revolve around money, or more specifically the lack of it. The Uzbek project envisions the construction of two 1-gigawatt VVER-1000 reactors and two smaller 55-megawatt RITM-200N models, along with necessary infrastructure and housing in the vicinity to accommodate up to 33,000 plant workers and their families. The overall cost is currently estimated at $9.5bn. Where all the financing will come from remains up in the air. Russia has proposed at least one financing plan that Tashkent apparently found unattractive. Mirziyoyev’s September 2 update indicates that beyond the financing question, Uzbekistan aims to downgrade Rosatom’s role in the project, intending to secure a larger share of the work for Uzbek contractors and workers. “According to preliminary estimates, local production accounts for 21 percent of the project, or $1.9 billion. The head of state noted that this figure is insufficient,” the statement reads. “The goal is to increase the share of domestic production in the project to at least 30 percent, ensure that 65 percent of construction and installation work is carried out by national enterprises and employ 7,000 local workers and specialists.” To accelerate the localisation of construction, Mirziyoyev ordered officials to prepare a plan to establish a manufacturing complex near the nuclear facility worksite to produce building materials and components for the power plant. This article first appeared on Eurasianet here.

Turkish motorists are facing fresh inflationary pressure. Fuel distributors enacted a double price surge on September 3, pushing retail petrol and diesel costs to record highs and threatening to further strain household finances across Europe's largest emerging economy, according to local media reports. Effective September 4, the price of gasoline in Turkey rose by Turkish lira (TRY) 2.48 ($0.05) per litre while diesel experienced a steep surge of TRY 7.72 per litre. Following the adjustments, petrol reached TRY 76.92 per litre on the European side of Istanbul with diesel surging to TRY 88.88 per litre. The price of diesel, meanwhile, breached the TRY 90 mark across numerous provinces as fuel prices are subject to minor variations depending on distributor network logistics. Bitlis led the nationwide standings at TRY 91.65 per litre. Across four major urban centres, rates settled at TRY 89.91 in Ankara, TRY 88.81 in Istanbul, TRY 90.20 in Izmir and TRY 91.26 in Antalya. Energy shock The sharp hikes reflect a combination of global oil market turbulence and persistent domestic currency pressures. Since Turkey relies heavily on imported oil, local pump prices directly track benchmark Mediterranean product prices and exchange rates. The outsized hike in diesel is expected to transmit quickly through the broader economy. Transport companies face immediate margin compression, which usually feeds into consumer goods within weeks. Diesel accounts for a critical share of farming input costs, raising concerns over food price inflation in Turkey. Surging energy expenses present a fresh obstacle for monetary authorities attempting to anchor long-term inflation expectations. Diesel’s disproportionate jump reflects tighter global middle-distillate supply dynamics alongside localised refining margins. With both fuels establishing unprecedented price floors, consumer discretionary spending in Turkey is likely to tighten further heading into the autumn.

The US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has designated Istanbul-based bank Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi over its alleged ties with Iran, the US Treasury said on September 4. The authority has also targeted the Turkish investment bank’s two subsidiaries, namely Golden Global Varlik Kiralama, a special purpose vehicle for selling Islamic bonds, and Golden Global Portfoy Yonetimi, a portfolio management company, under Executive Order 13902. The order targets key sectors of the Iranian economy. Responding to the designation, the bank issued a press release, denying the allegations. As of end-June, Golden Global was the 36th largest bank in Turkey with Turkish lira (TRY) 32bn ($663mn) of assets. The US Treasury blacklisted the bank and its asset management subsidiaries for facilitating shadow banking transactions on behalf of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The move marked the latest escalation in Washington’s aggressive campaign to sever Tehran’s access to global financial markets. The Treasury’s press release was titled: “Treasury severs Iranian regime’s financial lifelines in Turkey.” Turkey not targeted, says US ambassador In response to the press release, US Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack (@USAMBTurkiye) issued a statement on X. “Today, the United States Department of the Treasury designated a single Türkiye-based financial institution and two of its subsidiaries for their role in moving funds on behalf of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps–Qods Force,” he said. “We want to place this measure in its proper context, because context is everything, and because the relationship between the United States and the Republic of Türkiye is far larger than any one institution or any one day,” he added. Turkish government collaborated in process “Throughout this process, Treasury and its Turkish counterparts have been in direct and continuous contact,” Barrack also wrote. “This designation is aimed at the conduct of one entity, not at a nation, not at a banking system, and not at an ally,” he stressed, adding: “It is enforcement, precise and lawful, and the United States makes no apology for protecting the architecture on which honest commerce everywhere depends.” “It would be a serious error, here or in Ankara, to read this narrow measure as a judgment upon Türkiye. It is nothing of the kind... The health of the Turkish financial system is not in question; the conduct of one institution was,” he further wrote. “For that reason we note with respect that Türkiye has moved as a sovereign partner should,” Barrack added. “Rather than treat an uncomfortable disclosure as an affront, the Turkish authorities have engaged to clarify the ambiguities surrounding this matter and to inaugurate a process that will strengthen transparency going forward,” he said. “That is not the reflex of a state with something to conceal; it is the conduct of a mature partner determined that its own house be, and be seen to be, in order,” he continued. “Cooperation of this kind is worth more to the alliance than any assurance offered under pressure, because it is offered freely,” Barrack also wrote. “Between serious partners, friction is not the exception to the relationship but a recurring feature of it, and the test is never whether a difficult matter arises but whether it is met with candor and resolved with dignity,” he added. “We are confident, therefore, that this measure will in time be seen not as a strain upon the partnership but as an instance of its strength… We will continue this work together, in the same spirit of candor and common purpose that has carried the relationship this far,” he concluded. Warning to business partners Under the blacklisting, all property and assets of Golden Global Bank and its subsidiaries subject to US jurisdiction are frozen. Furthermore, foreign institutions that continue to transact with the bank face secondary sanctions that could result in them losing their own access to US dollar clearing, a mechanism designed to force international banks to immediately cut ties with the targeted Turkish firm. China’s oil payments turn to gold in Istanbul According to Treasury officials, Golden Global Bank was structured to process tens of millions of dollars in illicit transactions, acting as a crucial node in transferring Chinese oil revenues back to Turkey on behalf of Tehran's "rahbar" financial network. They added that the funds were then converted into physical cash and gold by Iranian-aligned money changers. Sitki Ayan connection The bank is also accused of having offered correspondent banking services to sanctioned Iranian financial entities, including trade networks tied to Sitki Ayan, a Turkish businessman designated by OFAC in 2022 for managing IRGC-Qods Force oil sales. “Operation Economic Outcast” The move against the bank falls under “Operation Economic Outcast”, also referred to as Economic D-Day, a sweeping sanctions enforcement initiative unveiled on August 24 by Secretary of the US Treasury Scott Bessent. The campaign aims to aggressively target middlemen institutions, third-country clearing hubs and shadow financial rails across Europe, the Middle East and Asia that enable Tehran to evade primary US sanctions. Working with partners across the US government, the EU, the UK, Gulf partners and others, the Treasury is targeting any source of Iran’s illicit revenue as well as its sanctions evasion schemes used to move funds. "Financial institutions continue to find out the hard way that we are serious about Operation Economic Outcast," Bessent (@SecScottBessent) wrote on X, adding: "We know who you are, we know where you are, and we will continue to take action together with our allies and partners until we have buried the head of the Iranian snake." Tweet: Bessent claimed in one tweet that no Iranian crude cargoes have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz to China since the US reinstated its blockade of the chokepoint. Not the first time Turkey-based entities and individuals have frequently drawn scrutiny from Western regulators over the provision of access to correspondent accounts and clearing channels used by Iranian, Syrian and Russian entities. Ankara was yet to issue an official response to the Golden Globe sanctions. Earlier this year, US President Donald Trump pardoned Turkey’s government-run Halkbank (HALKB) for allegedly smuggling $20bn of oil revenues to Iran via a similar gold scheme between 2012 and 2016.

US LNG exports saw an uptick in August as European countries purchased higher volumes to shore up ahead of winter, Reuters reported on September 1 citing data from the London Stock Exchange Group. US exports totaled 10.7mn metric tons of the super-chilled fuel in August. In July, LNG exports from the world’s biggest exporter totaled 10.48mn tonnes. The US’s top market remained Europe, which purchased 5.84mn tonnes, representing 55% of total exports. With winter creeping closer, Europe purchased 1mn metric tonnes more than in July. Europe’s gas storage levels have plummeted due to higher prices on the spot market. In early August underground gas storage facilities across the European Union were just over half full. Meanwhile, Asia was the US’s second largest market again in August as it purchased 2.59mn metric tonnes. It marked a downturn from July, when it imported 3.32mn metric tonnes of US LNG. Latin America raised its imports of US LNG in August, buying 0.9mn metric tonnes. Among the buyers was El Salvador, which is not a typical customer for the US. El Salvador purchased two cargoes, one of which was Energia del Pacifico’s 40th LNG cargo since it began operating in 2022. August continues a trend of Latin America purchasing more US LNG. In June shipments were nearly 10% higher than in June 2025. Feedgas deliveries to US LNG terminals reached its highest level since April on August 27. Feedgas deliveries rose to 18.5bn cubic feet (524mn cubic metres) per day, with the jump driven largely by the return to service after maintenance work of two large Texas export terminals. Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi facility and Freeport LNG, which are the US’s third and fourth largest LNG export terminals both had higher flows of natural gas following the end of maintenance work.

Venture Global’s Plaquemines Phase 2 is on schedule to commence deliveries of contracted LNG cargoes, Reuters reported on September 1 citing sources familiar with the matter. The export terminal, which is located in Louisiana about 40 km south of New Orleans, counts US supermajors Chevron and ExxonMobil as customers of its Phase 2. The expansion adds 10mn tonnes per year (tpy) of production capacity to the facility giving it a total capacity of 27.2mn tpy. In a letter to its Phase 2 foundational customers, the Arlington-Virginia headquartered firm told buyers that deliveries remain on track to be made by the end of the second quarter of 2027. Venture Global drew the ire of its foundational customers from its Calcasieu Pass LNG plant when it continued selling cargoes on the spot market at sky-high prices in 2022 due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while withholding deliveries to European foundational customers. The US’s second-largest LNG developer argued that it was within its contractual rights to put cargoes for sale on the spot market as its Calcasieu Pass plant was still in the commissioning phase due to faulty equipment connected to onsite power generation needing repair. Venture Global reached a settlement with Italy’s Edison, Spain’s Repsol, and China’s Unipec. The company won its arbitration case against Shell, but lost its arbitration case against supermajor BP. The British company is seeking up to $6bn in damages from Venture Global. The US LNG developer remains in one final arbitration case with Polish state-run firm Orlen. Venture Global plans to expand Plaquemines LNG to a third phase, which would boost production capacity to 45mn tpy and require an investment of $18bn. Venture Global was founded in 2013 and has had a meteoric rise to become the US’s second-largest LNG producer. Currently, only Cheniere Energy produces more super-chilled fuel in the US than Venture Global.

Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved an initial public offering by Dangote Petroleum Refinery that could raise about $1.6bn, setting up what is expected to be Africa’s biggest-ever share sale and a substantial test of investor appetite for one of the continent’s most ambitious industrial projects. The Lagos-based refinery plans to sell 4.1bn ordinary shares at NGN525 each, valuing the base offer at about NGN2,150bn ($1.63bn) if fully subscribed. The order book is expected to open on September 14, while the offer will include a greenshoe option allowing about 15% more shares to be sold if demand exceeds supply, sources told Reuters. Smaller offer, bigger valuation test The approved offer is notably smaller than the $5bn IPO application submitted to the SEC in August, although the final size had not then been fixed. The downsizing may make the flotation easier to absorb, but it also sharpens the focus on valuation. Dangote said on September 3 that the IPO would open within 10-12 days. The SEC registered the refinery company’s existing 120.13bn ordinary shares. At NGN525 each, those shares imply a valuation of about $47bn. That would make the refinery one of Africa’s most valuable companies and put it well above major listed standalone refiners including Turkey’s Tupras and US-based HF Sinclair. The valuation is also higher than that implied by a $2.5bn private placement completed in July, which valued the refinery at about $40bn. That placement was subscribed 3.7 times, drawing strong demand from African and international institutional investors. The response suggests that demand for access to a rare large-scale African industrial asset could help support the public offer despite questions over conventional refinery valuations. In an August interview with Reuters, chief executive David Bird described the flotation as a retail-focused “people’s IPO” intended to broaden Nigerian participation. Bird said the company wanted at least three years of proven production and financial performance before considering an overseas listing, which could support a stronger valuation. For now, the bet is firmly on Nigeria’s own capital market. $400mn underwriting backstop The refinery has secured a $400mn underwriting commitment for the IPO as part of a wider $1bn programme structured by Dubai-based advisory firm Marob Strategies and Consulting and Washington-based investment group Lilium Capital. The commitment, provided through Lilium subsidiary Pan-African Refinery Investment SPV, is equivalent to about 25% of the approved $1.63bn base offer, based on the offer terms. The other $600mn was a completed and fully funded private-placement component of the underwriting programme. The $400mn IPO commitment is due to be implemented when the offer launches, subject to market conditions, corporate and regulatory approvals and applicable securities laws, and therefore does not represent proceeds already received. The proceeds are expected to help finance an expansion from 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.4mn bpd within three years. The $20bn complex, which began commercial production after years of delays and cost overruns, is already Africa’s largest refinery and has sharply reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined fuels while turning the country into an increasingly important regional supplier. The approval also closes a regulatory gap that prompted the SEC to intervene in June, when it ordered capital-market operators to halt unauthorised promotion and advance subscriptions for a purported refinery share offer because no IPO application had then been filed or approved. NGX pitches pan-African participation The Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group) is meanwhile trying to turn the planned listing of Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE into something larger than a domestic flotation: an opportunity to demonstrate that Africa’s fragmented capital markets can mobilise money across borders for one of the continent’s biggest industrial assets. NGX Group Chairman Umaru Kwairanga said in June that the group was working with bourses across Africa to widen participation in the anticipated offering. Speaking at the London Africa Summit, he argued that the refinery’s eventual listing should be viewed as a pan-African investment opportunity rather than simply a Nigerian transaction. NGX Group has hosted representatives from African markets including Kenya, Ghana and South Africa, taking them to the refinery complex in Lagos. The exercise was partly promotional, but the broader ambition is to deepen links between African exchanges and give investors across the continent easier access to large-scale listings. From domestic refinery to global exporter The refinery began producing fuel in 2024 and has steadily increased output of petrol, diesel, jet fuel and other products. It supplies Nigeria and exports across Africa, as well as to markets including the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands. It has also shipped gasoline to the United States and jet fuel to Saudi Arabia, giving a project conceived largely to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel a growing international footprint. Aliko Dangote, founder of Nigerian industrial conglomerate Dangote Group and majority owner of the refinery (and Africa’s richest person) has said rising production has attracted greater interest from international crude suppliers and commodity traders, with the refinery sourcing feedstock from both Nigerian and foreign producers. Its petrochemicals business is also intended to support downstream manufacturing through supplies of liquefied petroleum gas, polypropylene and other industrial inputs. Plans include production of linear alkylbenzene, a key ingredient in detergents. NGX’s Kwairanga said investors were increasingly interested in tangible assets, operating performance and growth prospects rather than broad emerging-market narratives. He argued that Africa could attract more capital by presenting investable companies backed by measurable results. Technology, he added, has made it easier for investors abroad to participate in African markets, while reforms at the Nigerian Exchange are intended to bring the country’s trading infrastructure closer to international practice. These include a move to T+1 settlement and longer trading hours. NGX Group has also taken its sales pitch abroad, with investor-outreach campaigns in the United States, Brazil, China and the United Kingdom aimed at promoting Nigerian assets and strengthening international investor confidence. The timing is helpful. Nigeria’s equity market has rallied strongly, with Nigerian Exchange market capitalisation reaching about NGN159 trillion, or roughly $120bn, in early September, up sharply from the end of 2025. That leaves Lagos among Africa’s largest equity markets, alongside Johannesburg, Egypt and Casablanca. Feedstock costs remain the key risk Yet scale alone does not settle the investment case. Crude supply and feedstock costs remain a central risk. Despite sitting in Africa’s largest oil-producing country, the refinery has had to import a substantial share of its crude because of difficulties securing enough Nigerian supply on competitive terms. Some 30-40% of its crude has recently been imported, including US WTI Midland, Reuters reported in August. Analysts have warned that persistently high feedstock costs could squeeze margins and, in turn, the valuation investors are willing to support. The flotation is therefore more than a financing exercise. If NGX can attract investors from across Africa as well as abroad, the listing could offer rare evidence that African exchanges can mobilise capital across national borders for assets of continental scale. If it cannot, the gap between the rhetoric of African market integration and the capital actually willing to cross those borders will remain conspicuous.

Turkish budget carrier Pegasus Airlines (Istanbul/PGSUS) has so far refrained from passing on skyrocketing jet fuel costs to passengers, its chairman Mehmet Nane told BloombergHT on September 2. The Iran War and soaring global refining margins are taking a heavy toll on regional aviation. Speaking on the sidelines of the Airports Council International Airport Experience Summit, Nane also disclosed that crude oil prices rose around 30% in 1H while jet fuel expenditure surged by roughly 70%. The disparity underscores a widening "crack margin", the premium refiners charge to turn raw crude into aviation fuel. Nane warned that the spread hits airlines with a doubling of the operational intensity of baseline oil inflation. "The effect of the Middle East conflict hits us on multiple fronts," Nane said, adding: "One is the rise in oil prices... and when it comes to aviation, that impact is doubled because of the conversion ratio from crude oil to jet fuel." Despite a 26% y/y increase in 1H revenues, Pegasus has opted to absorb the brunt of the cost spike rather than risk dampening passenger demand with higher fare surcharges. "Fuel costs have not yet been reflected in ticket prices," Nane said, adding that management was relying on dynamic monthly budgeting and a substantial hedging strategy to navigate the turbulence. Pegasus has hedged about 62% of its fuel exposure, well above the global airline industry average of less than 50%. While this derivative buffer has shielded the airline from the worst of the volatility, Nane conceded that the rapid rise in jet fuel prices continues to exert severe downward pressure on margins. The geopolitical friction both south and north of Turkey’s borders has created secondary headwinds for the country's aviation and tourism sectors. Positioned as a critical crossroads linking Europe, the Middle East and Asia, Turkish carriers rely heavily on regional transit and inbound leisure traffic. According to Nane, tourist arrivals from key markets such as Iran have fallen short of initial forecasts as regional security fears weigh on consumer travel sentiment. "Looking at it from this perspective, because our country sits at a juncture connecting the world, we have experienced the negative impacts of this war through rising fuel prices, elevated costs and a drop in tourist arrivals from the regions," he said. Airlines across Europe and the Middle East are watching the refined fuel markets closely. If jet fuel prices remain elevated, low-cost carriers, which operate on razor-thin operating margins, will eventually be forced to raise base fares or reintroduce aggressive fuel surcharges before the winter travel season. Separately, on September 2, Pegasus said that it had cancelled Russia flights for "technical and operational" reasons. Earlier in the day, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, declared that due to expanding warfare Russia’s airspace was becoming unsafe for commercial airlines.

Days after Donald Trump declined to rule out changing Washington's stance on the Falkland Islands, President Javier Milei used a televised address late on September 3 to harden Argentina's decades-old sovereignty claim over the territory, threatening sanctions on oil companies drilling nearby and promising new funds for a naval base in Tierra del Fuego. Speaking from the Casa Rosada, the presidential palace in Buenos Aires, Milei said the Falklands, which Argentina calls the Malvinas, were "Argentinian, historically and legally" and that there was "no debate" over the matter. He said Argentina would not "stand idly by" and needed to "recover" the islands. Britain has held the territory since 1833, and the two nations went to war over it in 1982. The Argentine leader singled out Sea Lion, an offshore development roughly 220km north of the Falklands led jointly by London-listed Rockhopper Exploration and Navitas Petroleum, headquartered in Israel, describing it as a "concrete and urgent danger" to national sovereignty. "If we do not act firmly and swiftly today, in a few months they will have the material capacity to seize the oil reserves that lie under our sea," he said. Trump's remarks came in a GB News interview broadcast on September 3. Pressed on whether the US would support Britain militarily should the Falklands dispute turn violent again, he gave no assurance, instead repeating his complaint that London had offered little help for the US and Israeli-led bombing campaign against Iran. Earlier in the week, the US president had told reporters in the Oval Office that he was open to reconsidering "every position," including on the Falklands, although US officials have since maintained that Washington's neutral stance is unchanged. Ed Miliband, the UK's foreign secretary, dismissed Milei's claim, calling Britain's commitment to the islands "unwavering" and arguing that international law guaranteed the islanders a say over their own future. Wes Streeting, the UK defence secretary, said Milei's statement "tells us more about domestic politics in Argentina than it does about the Falkland Islands," adding that the islands "are British because Falkland Islanders choose to be British." Milei rejected that argument, saying the remote archipelago’s population, as residents of what he called "usurped territory," did not have "a legitimate right to self-determination" and that a 2013 referendum, in which 99.8% of islanders voted to remain British, was "invalid." The libertarian leader also unveiled a decree requiring state agencies to flag suspected legal breaches in the islands directly to the foreign ministry, which would then have the power to penalise the companies and suppliers involved in oil and gas work there. Separately, he said his government would put a National Sovereignty Defence Bill before Congress, tightening existing sanctions law and setting up a new National Security Council. He also said he would sign an emergency decree to increase defence ministry funding for an integrated naval base in Tierra del Fuego, a project begun in 2022, which he said would become the "most important logistics hub in the South Atlantic." Rockhopper and Navitas played down the impact of the threatened measures. In a joint statement, the companies said the episode was "not expected to have any material effect" on the Sea Lion timeline and that their licences, granted by the Falklands' local government, remained valid with the "full and continuous support" of the UK government. Pablo Quirno, Argentina's foreign minister, said the presence of an Israeli company in the project would not damage relations with the Jewish state, one of Argentina's closest allies under Milei, adding that Navitas was already subject to Argentine sanctions. He said the measures unveiled by Milei had been in preparation for six months. Sea Lion, which lies at a depth of 450 metres, is targeting first oil in early 2028 with initial output of 55,000 barrels a day, against Argentina's national production of about 915,000 b/d. According to a public filing by Rockhopper reviewed by consultancy Netherland, Sewell & Associates, the project could generate between $2.85bn and $8.8bn for the Falklands government over roughly 40 years, based on a 9% royalty rate and 25% income tax. The 1982 war between Britain and Argentina over the islands claimed the lives of 649 Argentine and 255 British service personnel. The dispute resurfaced in July when Argentina's football team displayed a banner reading "the Malvinas are Argentine" after eliminating England from the World Cup semi-finals. Facing corruption allegations within his government and rising unemployment and poverty despite successfully curbing inflation, Milei is seeking re-election next year, and some analysts see his sudden prominence on the Falklands question as a way of shifting attention elsewhere. The president has long professed admiration for Margaret Thatcher, the UK Conservative prime minister who led Britain through the 1982 war, and only began pressing Argentina's sovereignty claim publicly in recent months, after word emerged that the White House might be rethinking its stance. Milei cast Trump's openness to reviewing the US position as vindication of his close ideological alliance with the Trump administration. "The United States is considering this change in position because it knows that in Argentina, it has a reliable partner, one aligned with Western values, in a position of strategic importance," he said.

India’s high level diplomatic outreach to Ukraine has contrasted sharply with its low level representation at Russia’s Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, with the two engagements taking place over overlapping dates between September 2-4 2026. While India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar travelled to Kyiv for talks with Ukraine’s leadership, India’s delegation to the Vladivostok forum was headed by its ambassador and largely comprised lower ranking officials focused on advancing commercial interests. According to a report by All India Radio, Jaishankar held talks with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during his three day visit to Ukraine and Poland. Jaishankar reiterated his government’s position that the Russia-Ukraine war should be resolved through diplomacy rather than military action, echoing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s earlier remarks at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) heads of state summit on September 2 2026. The discussions with Ukraine also centred on the economic consequences of maritime hostilities, including disruptions to commercial shipping that threaten energy, fertiliser and food supplies across the Global South. Both sides stressed the importance of preserving Black Sea navigation and global food security following attacks on commercial vessels. India said it had delivered 19 humanitarian consignments totalling 160 tonnes to Ukraine, including generators, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment. The two sides also discussed expanding trade in agriculture and pharmaceuticals, alongside opportunities in technology, startups and digital infrastructure. Sybiha welcomed India’s diplomatic engagement and its potential role in ending the conflict, noting that the visit was the first dedicated bilateral trip to Ukraine by an Indian foreign minister. The simultaneous engagements underscore a marked difference in New Delhi’s diplomatic signalling. Ukraine received ministerial-level attention, while India’s participation in Russia’s flagship Far East forum remained predominantly transactional and pragmatic led by officials of much lower rank. India’s purported downgrading of its status as an ally of Moscow in favour of the West and Ukraine has been registered by Russia, and has led to New Delhi no longer receiving a discount on Russian crude. Yet, India continues to import crude oil, as well as other hydrocarbons and commodities from Russia even as the risk of Western and especially US sanctions mounts as of September 4 2026. However, Moscow which needs steady sources of revenue to sustain its economy as well as its war in Ukraine can’t afford to cut India off altogether from buying its energy exports given that alongside China, New Delhi remains one its top two global customers.

Hungary is establishing a powerful new environmental authority from January 1, 2027, tasked with tighter oversight of the country’s expanding electric vehicle (EV) battery industry, Prime Minister Péter Magyar said at a September 3 press briefing, state news agency MTI writes. The new authority will be set up in several stages, with the government planning to give it nationwide responsibility for environmental, nature, climate, water and animal protection, water management and forestry-related regulatory tasks. The government would raise the maximum fine for the most serious environmental violations by large industrial companies to HUF5bn (€13.7mn) and introduce a "three strikes" system under which repeat offenders could face penalties equivalent to at least 0.5% of their annual net revenue. The measures represent a significant tightening of environmental enforcement against battery manufacturers, a strategically important industry. The country has attracted billions of euros in investment from Asian battery makers, which expanded rapidly as the Orban government sought to position itself as one of Europe’s main EV production hubs. Hungary has become the world’s fourth-largest EV battery maker, and investments in the sector in recent years have created over 10,000 jobs. Critics have raised concerns about the environmental impact of the plants, including water use, chemical pollution, waste management, and the ability of local authorities to effectively monitor large industrial facilities. The change of government, however, has marked a clear shift as companies faced growing scrutiny. Magyar cited Samsung SDI’s battery plant in God, 20km north of Budapest, which was fined several times in 2022-23 for exceeding emissions limits. The South Korean company has previously said its Hungarian factory complies with environmental and safety regulations, after its environmental licence was temporarily suspended. Magyar said the plant’s annual revenue is above HUF1 trillion (€2.8bn), meaning that a 0.5% minimum penalty would amount to around HUF5bn. In June, authorities suspended the production licence of Chinese battery-parts maker Semcorp after finding significant aluminium pollution in groundwater monitoring wells near its plant; the company said it was investigating. CATL, which is building its largest manufacturing base outside of China, is investigating the source of increased nickel exposure detected in several of its employees during work inspections in July. The company promised to tighten safety rules. Last week, the Chinese manufacturer announced it had received a permit to operate its first cell manufacturing facility. The 350,000 sqm cell factory could reach an annual production capacity of 40 GWh. "We will not compromise on the health and safety of the Hungarian people for the sake of any single investment or any single investor," Magyar said. Magyar said the new regulator would be required to inspect industrial facilities with high environmental impacts on a strict professional basis and ensure that both Hungarian and EU environmental rules are respected. Emphasis will be placed on environmental permitting and supervision of battery manufacturing, recycling, and decommissioning, Magyar said. Under the proposed system, the size of a waste-related penalty will depend on factors such as the seriousness of the violation and the volume and hazardousness of the waste involved. The review is also relevant to the battery industry because Hungary will likely need to develop larger, more sophisticated recycling and waste-treatment capacity as the first generation of locally produced EV batteries reaches the end of their useful lives, analysts said. Magyar said electronic waste will also enter the system next year, although the necessary collection and recycling arrangements have not yet been fully established In related news, Hungary’s chemical trade union, VDSZ, signed a coopéeration agreement with the Hungarian Battery Association on September 3, aimed at improving the sector's competitiveness and labour retention capacity. Peter Kaderjak, managing director of the Hungarian Battery Association, said the objective was to ensure that battery production in Hungary operates sustainably, with higher added value, while remaining competitive and retaining the more than 10,000 jobs created. The industry’s public perception needs to improve, he said, arguing that the sector was currently "undervalued". The tightening of regulations targeting the EV battery chain is part of a broader government review of Hungary’s environmental and waste-management system. At the press briefing, Magyar announced that the government had completed an initial review of MOHU, a subsidiary of oil and gas giant MOL, which operates a 35-year state waste-management concession since 2023. He claimed that the company "was not meeting its commitments or targets in the contract." Hungary remains well behind other EU member states on waste recycling. Around 54% of waste is currently landfilled, 33% is recycled, and 12% is used for energy recovery, while the country is also missing EU-related targets. He said municipal waste processing had been targeted at 50% in 2025 but remained below 36%. The government estimates that meeting its previously established waste-management targets could reduce public expenditure by as much as HUF90bn a year by 2027, partly by reducing the financial consequences of failing to meet EU requirements. Magyar said the review of MOHU began after a "flood of complaints" by local municipalities over the quality of the survey. Radical right-wing Our Homeland criticised MOHU in a statement for its plans to end cash payouts at the country’s deposit-return points. The REpont deposit-return scheme, under which consumers receive HUF50 (€0.14) for bottles and cans, was introduced in 2024. The parliamentary party argues that the move is an attack on the constitution, which guarantees the use of cash in Hungary. The prime minister also unveiled a national tree-planting and afforestation programme running through 2030, with the government to provide tens of billions of forints in annual non-repayable funding from 2026. The scheme will support new forests and riverside planting, prioritising climate-resilient species and expanding tree cover in settlements while maintaining existing trees. Magyar also called for invasive species to be replaced, forests restructured and forest managers given greater professional support, to significantly increase forest cover and shade-providing trees by 2030.

Invictus Energy (ASX:IVZ, VFEX:INV, OTCQB:IVCTF) will participate in African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 as a Bronze Partner, bringing Zimbabwe’s Cabora Bassa Basin development to the continent’s energy investment forum, the African Energy Chamber (AEC) said in a media statement on August 31. The partnership comes as the Australia-based independent upstream oil and gas company moves from frontier exploration towards commercial development after discoveries, regulatory progress and a petroleum production sharing agreement (PPSA) governing petroleum operations across the full lifecycle of the Cabora Bassa project. Invictus holds an 80% interest in the project across 360,000 hectares in the Cabora Bassa Basin. According to the company, its Mukuyu discovery contains an estimated 4.2 trillion cubic feet of gas, equivalent to about 118.9bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas, and 264 million barrels of condensate, which could support domestic gas supply and power generation. The company signed the PPSA with the Republic of Zimbabwe in May, setting the fiscal and commercial terms for future development. The agreement gives the state a 20% interest and includes the Mutapa Investment Fund, with Zimbabwe able to take its share through profits or physical gas volumes. Invictus is preparing to drill the Musuma-1 well, which is scheduled to spud in November, according to the company’s statement on August 7. The well will target an independent prospect on the eastern basin margin with an unrisked gross mean prospective resource of 1.2 trillion cubic feet (34.0 bcm) of gas and 73 million barrels of condensate. The company has secured Exalo Drilling Rig 202 through a deed of variation with Exalo Drilling S.A. Wellpad construction and other preparations are also under way. Invictus raised about $7mn in July to strengthen funding for the drilling programme and appraisal work. In the meantime, Invictus is developing a pilot gas-to-power commercialisation project for the Mukuyu gas field. The project with Dallaglio Investments and Himoinsa Southern Africa is designed to generate 12 MW for the Eureka Gold Mine, with scope to expand to 50 MW as gas production and industrial demand increase, the AEC said. Furthermore, Invictus is targeting broader gas monetisation for Cabora Bassa gas through a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Mbuyu Energy to explore gas supplies for power generation facilities linked to the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). According to the AEC, longer-term options include regional pipeline infrastructure and modular LNG production. “Invictus Energy represents the type of African-led resource development that AEW is designed to showcase, where exploration success is being matched by commercial planning, government alignment and investment,” said NJ Ayuk, executive chairman of the AEC. “Its participation brings Zimbabwe’s emerging gas opportunity into direct conversation with investors, developers and energy companies from across the continent and beyond.” AEW 2026 will take place in Cape Town, South Africa, from October 12-16.

Africa’s expansion of new oil and gas projects and efforts to extend the life of mature fields are creating growing opportunities for oilfield services companies, according to the African Energy Chamber (AEC). Countries including Nigeria, Angola, Namibia, Mozambique, Côte d’Ivoire, Uganda, Ghana, Republic of the Congo and Equatorial Guinea are emerging as markets for exploration, drilling, subsea, engineering, production and infrastructure services, the AEC said in a press release on August 31. The opportunities will be discussed at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026 in Cape Town from October 12-16. A dedicated session, “Africa’s Oil & Gas Services Opportunity”, will examine expanding upstream activity, competition for capital and the technologies and business models needed to support growth. Africa accounts for nearly 40% of planned exploration wells globally, according to the AEC, making the continent an important market for service providers as producers seek to increase output and improve energy security. Nigeria is among the largest near-term opportunities, with established infrastructure, brownfield redevelopment and growing deepwater activity. The AEC said a new deepwater fiscal framework could unlock an estimated $50bn in investment and revive projects delayed by regulatory and commercial issues. Angola is also seeking to reverse production declines and extend the life of existing mature fields while maintaining output at about 1.1mn barrels per day (bpd). The chamber said Angola “presents a massive growth pipeline for global service companies”, after attracting more than $14bn in annual oil and gas investment over the past three years and targeting $70bn over the next five. Mozambique is emerging as a major LNG services market, the AEC said. Large-scale developments such as Mozambique LNG operated by TotalEnergies (EPA/LSE/NYSE:TTE), Coral North FLNG developed by Eni (BIT:ENI, NYSE:E) and partners, and Rovuma LNG Phase 1 led by ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), are among the projects driving demand. In August, ExxonMobil Moçambique on behalf of the Area 4 co-venturers awarded $1.1bn in pre-investment contracts for Rovuma LNG upstream equipment. Equatorial Guinea is offering 12 additional exploration blocks, presenting opportunities for subsea, drilling, and technical service providers, after major exploration agreements with energy giants Chevron (NYSE:CVX), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Eni and Galp Energia (ELI:GALP), the AEC said. The chamber also noted that Liberia and Sierra Leone were expanding their offshore exploration portfolios, while Namibia remained the continent’s leading exploration hotspot ahead of its 2031 first-oil target. “Africa is entering a new cycle of upstream activity, with frontier exploration accelerating, brownfield assets being optimized and existing infrastructure being revitalized,” said NJ Ayuk, executive chairman of the AEC. “This creates significant opportunities for oil and gas services companies that can bring the technology, expertise and commercial models needed to help African producers develop resources faster and more efficiently. AEW 2026 will connect these companies with the governments, operators and projects driving Africa’s next phase of upstream growth.”

Summit Midstream announced this week that it had taken a final investment decision (FID) on the previously announced mainline compression expansion project on its Double E gas pipeline. The FID follows the closing of what Summit described as a “successful” open season. The expansion project entails the installation of a bi-directional mainline compressor station on the Double E system. Summit said this would increase the pipeline's forward haul capacity to the Waha Hub by roughly 900mn cubic feet (25.5mn cubic metres) per day. The compression project, new plant connections and related infrastructure are expected to cost around $100mn net to Summit's 70% interest in Double E. The expansion is anticipated to be in service by the fourth quarter of 2028. ExxonMobil holds the remaining 30% stake in the Double E system. Summit said the Double E joint venture had already placed a purchase order for the long-lead gas turbine compression units required for the expansion project. According to the announcement, it has thereby secured manufacturing slots that align with the targeted in-service date for the expansion. However, Summit noted that the project remained subject to US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and other customary regulatory approvals. The company also said that it had executed a new long-term take-or-pay firm transportation agreement with what it described as an “investment-grade” shipper for 200 mmcf (5.7mn cubic metres) per day. This agreement will support the expansion project and will bring total contracted firm capacity on Double E to around 2.2bn cubic feet (62.3 mcm) per day. This capacity is held by a “diversified group” of primarily investment-grade shippers, according to the announcement. With the new agreement, Double E has secured roughly 550 mmcf (15.6 mcm) per day of binding long-term take-or-pay commitments through the compression expansion open season, Summit said. It added that the Double E joint venture continues to advance discussions with additional prospective shippers for the remaining capacity on the expansion. "Today's announcement is a significant milestone for Summit and Double E and further demonstrates the importance of the pipeline to producers and processors in the Delaware Basin,” stated Summit’s president, CEO and chairman, Heath Deneke. “Double E provides reliable gas transmission service with access to multiple downstream markets, and we continue to expand that connectivity as the basin grows. The strong shipper interest we have seen through the open season reinforces the value of that position and our confidence in the long-term growth opportunity for Double E.” When the project is fully subscribed, Summit expects the adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for its Permian Basin segment to increase from roughly $37mn in 2026 to over $100mn by 2030, according to Deneke. The expansion illustrates the demand for new midstream infrastructure as gas producers ramp up output and as consumption also increases. "As we look into the future for the Double E Pipeline beyond filling the mainline compression expansion capacity to Waha, we are very excited about a new phase of demand-pull growth opportunities that are emerging from data centre development in Texas and New Mexico as well as additional egress pipelines that are hungry for enhanced access to Permian gas supply,” Deneke said. “With our connectivity to numerous gas processing facilities in the basin and the Waha Hub, we are incredibly well positioned to attract those markets to the Double E Pipeline and leverage the bi-directional capability of the system to nearly double the outlook for the business in the years ahead."

US midstream player Oneok announced on August 30 that it had agreed to acquire Brazos Midstream’s natural gas-gathering and processing assets in the Permian Basin’s Midland sub-basin for $4.425bn in cash. According to the announcement, the acquisition will be funded through a $9bn non-voting minority equity investment from funds and affiliates managed by asset management firm Apollo. Oneok added that it would also use $5bn worth of proceeds from the equity investment to reduce its existing debt. Brazos is currently building the Cassidy II processing plant. Once this facility has been completed, which is targeted for the third quarter of 2027, the Brazos Midland system will include roughly 700 miles (1,127 km) of gathering infrastructure and 1.2bn cubic feet (34.0mn cubic metres) per day of processing capacity across seven core Midland Basin counties. Through the acquisition, Oneok said it would also obtain a Midland Basin-wide area of mutual interest (AMI) with a what it described as a key private producer, which it expects to create additional opportunities for future growth. The Brazos assets are underpinned by around 600,000 dedicated acres (2,428 square km) under long-term fixed-fee contracts with a weighted average remaining term of more than 12 years, Oneok said. It added that the system was supported by 14 active drilling rigs from leading Permian producers that include ExxonMobil, Diamondback Energy and Double Eagle Energy. Oneok described the Brazos assets as being “highly complementary” to its existing Midland Basin gas-gathering and processing, natural gas liquids (NGL) transportation and oil infrastructure. The acquisition will more than double Oneok’s Midland Basin processing capacity to around 2.3 bcf (65.1 mcm) per day, including plants currently under construction, the company said. It is also expected to establish one of the Midland Basin's largest integrated gas-gathering and processing platforms, according to the announcement. "This transaction demonstrates Oneok's strategy of intentionally expanding and extending our integrated energy infrastructure," stated Oneok’s president and CEO, Pierce Norton. "These assets add a premier Permian Midland Basin platform supported by long-term contracts and attractive growth opportunities.” The acquisition is anticipated to close in the fourth quarter of 2026. The deal highlights how growing demand for natural gas among users including LNG exporters and data centres is bolstering the attractiveness of midstream infrastructure in the Permian Basin. The announcement comes after Brazos also sold its assets in the Permian’s Delaware sub-basin to Western Midstream for about $1.6bn in cash and stock in June. Brazos has not disclosed its future plans.

Petrol prices reached record highs in Germany and the Netherlands, and European natural gas futures touched a three-year peak, as a renewed escalation in the Iran-US war pushed oil prices up, according to figures published on September 2. The records show how a conflict fought in the Gulf is now landing directly on European household budgets. About a fifth of the world's oil and gas moved through the Strait of Hormuz before the war, and with almost no tankers now passing through it, the lost supply has fed through crude markets to the pump across the continent. Brent has traded near $91 a barrel in recent sessions. In Germany, the average price of a litre of Super E10 reached a nominal record of €2.215, the automobile club ADAC said, surpassing the previous high of €2.203 set in March 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. ADAC noted the figure was only a nominal record, as inflation-adjusted prices had been higher in the past, citing 2012. In the Netherlands, a litre of Euro95 hit a record €2.666 on September 2, according to the consumer platform UnitedConsumers, nearly three cents more than the day before. Diesel rose to €2.633, though still below the April 8 record of €2.819. The figures are recommended prices typically charged only at motorway stations, with fuel often cheaper elsewhere. European natural gas futures hit a three-year high and oil futures moved closer to $100 a barrel as the renewed fighting threatened Gulf energy supplies, Bloomberg reported, warning of pressure heading into winter. Higher prices have lifted oil company earnings, with Shell posting its strongest quarterly profit since early 2023. Research by Dutch motoring group ANWB found many motorists were cutting back on restaurant visits and holidays to cover fuel costs, with almost a quarter saying they were significantly affected. Diesel has been hit harder than petrol across Europe through the war, given its tighter link to global trade and freight. In Germany, low water levels on the Rhine have compounded the pressure by limiting barge shipping and raising freight costs. The war began on February 28, when the US and Israel struck Iran, after which Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command said it struck IRGC targets in Iran on September 1.

Baghdad and several other Iraqi provinces faced renewed shortages of petrol and kerosene, with long queues at filling stations and dozens of stations closing, Shafaq News reported on September 3. The latest recurrence exposes how far Iraq's fuel problem runs beyond logistics and its relationship with Iran, which it has relied heavily on for imports of vehicle fuels. This is even more damaging as Iraq holds the world's fifth-largest crude reserves and the second-largest Arab refining capacity. The country cannot reliably supply its own pumps after foreign partners pulled out of key refineries during the war, leaving output capacity sharply reduced. This disruption came only about 15 days after a previous supply crisis eased, pointing to a structural shortfall rather than a one-off delay. Large numbers of vehicles queued outside operating stations, with lines stretching long distances and causing congestion on several Baghdad roads and bridges. Dozens of stations had shut, though the reasons were not immediately clear. No official explanation had been issued. Drivers told Shafaq News that petrol shortages had become increasingly frequent, calling on authorities to clarify the causes. Previous shortages have been linked to supply disruptions; in August, the oil ministry attributed a temporary shortage to a gap between consumption and supply and a delayed shipment of improved petrol. The deeper cause traces to the war between Iran and the United States. The withdrawal of foreign partners from Iraqi refineries during the conflict depressed output, with the oil ministry declaring a petrol crisis in June, Iraqi newspapers reported. One refining unit in the south producing about 4mn litres a day of high-octane petrol, commissioned in February, stalled after the executing company pulled out because of regional conditions. Iraq's exposure runs wider still. Constraints on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz led Baghdad to cut southern oil output and declare force majeure at foreign-operated fields, according to an American University of Iraq, Sulaimani energy analysis. The report warned that Iraq's dependence on a single commodity and a single maritime route through Hormuz rapidly translates disruption into lost revenue and fiscal strain. Iraq sells petrol at among the world's cheapest prices, which sustains heavy domestic demand. The war began on February 28, when the US and Israel struck Iran, after which Iran closed the strait, through which about 20% of the world's oil and gas passed before the conflict.

The highest warming scenario used by climate modellers has fallen to 3.3C by 2100 from 4.6C, the first time the top of the range has come down in four generations of modelling, Carbon Brief reported on September 1. The seven new scenarios belong to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's seventh phase, CMIP7, which will feed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's seventh assessment. They were published in Geoscientific Model Development in April 2026 and the underlying emissions data was released on September 1. For anyone financing energy assets with a 25-year life, the change at the top of the range is commercially relevant. The scenarios that banks and insurers have been running as their stress case were built on an assumption of coal-led growth and costly renewables, and the modellers have now written that future off as implausible. What changed The old high-emissions pathways "have become implausible, based on trends in the costs of renewables, the emergence of climate policy and recent emission trends", according to the study Carbon Brief cites. The numbers behind that judgement are large. The new high scenario carries cumulative CO2 emissions of 3,820 GtCO2 between 2024 and 2100, against roughly 7,600 GtCO2 in SSP5-8.5, the highest scenario of the previous generation. The worst case has been halved. Four other things changed with it. The scenarios are named by emissions trajectory rather than by radiative forcing. There is no longer a no-climate-policy scenario, the range instead running from current policies weakening to current policies strengthening. The models now calculate atmospheric CO2 concentrations from emissions rather than having concentrations prescribed. And the runs extend to 2150, with extensions to 2500, rather than stopping at 2100. The socioeconomic assumptions were revised in 2024 towards higher population and lower income per capita. Global population in 2100 under the middle pathway is now put at 9.9bn, a billion higher than before, with income per capita 10% to 25% lower than the original assumptions across most scenarios. The seven scenarios The high scenario reaches 3.3C by 2100, with a range of 2.6C to 4.4C. Medium, which freezes current policies at 2025 levels, reaches 2.9C. High-to-low, which runs high to mid-century then reaches net zero CO2 by 2100, gives 2.8C. Medium-low gives 2.3C. At the bottom, low reaches 1.8C, low-to-negative 1.7C and very-low 1.6C. Only those last three are consistent with the Paris temperature goals, and all three require carbon removal at industrial scale. Cumulative removals to 2150 run from 655 GtCO2 in the very-low scenario to 2,360 GtCO2 in low-to-negative. In that last case about 1,750 GtCO2 of engineered removal, from bioenergy with carbon capture and from direct air capture, would need geological storage by 2150. Cutting the top of the range does not move the near-term problem. On the medium scenario, which is the one that assumes today's policies simply continue, 1.5C is essentially locked in by the late 2020s or early 2030s and 2C is crossed around 2050. It takes until about 2110 to reach 3C, and there is a one-in-four chance of 4C by 2150. The comparison across generations shows how far the ceiling has moved. SRES A1FI gave 4.6C in 2100, RCP8.5 gave 4.9C and SSP5-8.5 gave 4.6C. CMIP7's high gives 3.3C. The first model runs took place in the spring of 2026 and initial results are expected later this year.