Nick Ridpath
@nickridpath.bsky.social
Research Economist at the IFS working on the public finances and education
Migration's not always talked about as supply-side policy, but it may be a useful way of thinking about it.
We find some migration reforms since 2020 could have had (in both directions) bigger effects than many recent high-profile reforms, inc. planning, childcare and tax.
We find some migration reforms since 2020 could have had (in both directions) bigger effects than many recent high-profile reforms, inc. planning, childcare and tax.
Migration policy changes can have big economic effects. This chart shows illustrative estimates of the effects of these 3 policies on GDP. These could have been larger than any of the high-profile ‘supply-side’ policies since 2023, inc planning reform and childcare subsidies. [5/9]
September 11, 2026 at 10:12 AM
Migration's not always talked about as supply-side policy, but it may be a useful way of thinking about it.
We find some migration reforms since 2020 could have had (in both directions) bigger effects than many recent high-profile reforms, inc. planning, childcare and tax.
We find some migration reforms since 2020 could have had (in both directions) bigger effects than many recent high-profile reforms, inc. planning, childcare and tax.
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
We have a new report out today taking a deep dive into how migration and its fiscal impacts feed through the OBR’s public finance forecast. A short thread on why this matters [1/9]
NEW: Migration and the public finance forecast
In our first IFS Green Budget 2026 chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org and Barclays, we look at the ways migration feeds into the public finances, and how it's accounted for in the OBR public finance forecast.
In our first IFS Green Budget 2026 chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org and Barclays, we look at the ways migration feeds into the public finances, and how it's accounted for in the OBR public finance forecast.
September 10, 2026 at 11:30 AM
We have a new report out today taking a deep dive into how migration and its fiscal impacts feed through the OBR’s public finance forecast. A short thread on why this matters [1/9]
Migration could be quite important at this year’s budget, as falling migration feeds through into the OBR’s forecast and the government’s “headroom” against its fiscal rules.
Given this, a thread on how migration affects the public finances:
Given this, a thread on how migration affects the public finances:
NEW: Migration and the public finance forecast
In our first IFS Green Budget 2026 chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org and Barclays, we look at the ways migration feeds into the public finances, and how it's accounted for in the OBR public finance forecast.
In our first IFS Green Budget 2026 chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org and Barclays, we look at the ways migration feeds into the public finances, and how it's accounted for in the OBR public finance forecast.
September 10, 2026 at 8:40 AM
Migration could be quite important at this year’s budget, as falling migration feeds through into the OBR’s forecast and the government’s “headroom” against its fiscal rules.
Given this, a thread on how migration affects the public finances:
Given this, a thread on how migration affects the public finances:
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
This is the most important chart for understanding how working-age benefit spending has changed over last two decades. In overall levels spending as % of GDP is lower now that it was in 2012, but the composition of that spending is very different.
3. Rising spending on disability benefits and other health-related benefit spending have pushed up overall spending on benefits for working-age adults and children since the pandemic but as a share of GDP total benefit spending is still lower than it was in 2012.
July 24, 2026 at 9:47 AM
This is the most important chart for understanding how working-age benefit spending has changed over last two decades. In overall levels spending as % of GDP is lower now that it was in 2012, but the composition of that spending is very different.
Great piece from Max.
One noteworthy point on both the VAT cut and today’s bus fare cap is both costs are mostly being covered by cuts to capital spending.
There’s a pattern emerging of increasing shifts towards day-to-day spending (and tax cuts) as a focus
One noteworthy point on both the VAT cut and today’s bus fare cap is both costs are mostly being covered by cuts to capital spending.
There’s a pattern emerging of increasing shifts towards day-to-day spending (and tax cuts) as a focus
We have a comment in the Times today on how yesterday's VAT cut will be paid for.
The money has to come from somewhere within departmental budgets, but we don't know what will be squeezed. That's different to the bus fares policy, where more specific cuts have been set out
The money has to come from somewhere within departmental budgets, but we don't know what will be squeezed. That's different to the bus fares policy, where more specific cuts have been set out
July 22, 2026 at 12:30 PM
Great piece from Max.
One noteworthy point on both the VAT cut and today’s bus fare cap is both costs are mostly being covered by cuts to capital spending.
There’s a pattern emerging of increasing shifts towards day-to-day spending (and tax cuts) as a focus
One noteworthy point on both the VAT cut and today’s bus fare cap is both costs are mostly being covered by cuts to capital spending.
There’s a pattern emerging of increasing shifts towards day-to-day spending (and tax cuts) as a focus
There'll be lots of discussion of effect of inflation on households today.
But today's ONS figures are a reminder that impact of inflation on broader public finances are also something Andy Burnham and John Healey will have to think about:
But today's ONS figures are a reminder that impact of inflation on broader public finances are also something Andy Burnham and John Healey will have to think about:
Today’s public finance figures show debt interest spending was £33 billion in the first quarter of the 2026–27 financial year, equivalent to 4.3% of GDP.
Debt interest spending is set to remain high, leaving the new PM and Chancellor in a tight fiscal situation going forward:
Debt interest spending is set to remain high, leaving the new PM and Chancellor in a tight fiscal situation going forward:
July 21, 2026 at 7:27 AM
There'll be lots of discussion of effect of inflation on households today.
But today's ONS figures are a reminder that impact of inflation on broader public finances are also something Andy Burnham and John Healey will have to think about:
But today's ONS figures are a reminder that impact of inflation on broader public finances are also something Andy Burnham and John Healey will have to think about:
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
On the Defence Investment Plan top-ups: the political turmoil surrounding top-ups averaging <£4bn/year feels like a small taste of what's in store over the next decade if we want to hit the 3.5% NATO commitment - which would require (much!) more defence money
3. Zooming out, we've still got a long way to go if the govt still wants to get to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 - current plans only get us about a third of the way there relative to 23-24. Getting to 3.5% could cost an additional £25bn each year in today's terms relative to these plans
June 30, 2026 at 4:43 PM
On the Defence Investment Plan top-ups: the political turmoil surrounding top-ups averaging <£4bn/year feels like a small taste of what's in store over the next decade if we want to hit the 3.5% NATO commitment - which would require (much!) more defence money
Could the government borrow more to fund investment in infrastructure? There's a case for borrowing for productive investment, but there isn't one simple trick to substantially increase borrowing within the current fiscal rules. A short thread:
June 26, 2026 at 8:18 AM
Could the government borrow more to fund investment in infrastructure? There's a case for borrowing for productive investment, but there isn't one simple trick to substantially increase borrowing within the current fiscal rules. A short thread:
Really important context from Max below: the funding gap the government might need to fill for the Defence Investment Plan is far, far below the amount that would eventually be needed to reach 3.5% of GDP on defence spending
Lots of discussion in recent weeks about how to fund the (much-delayed!) Defence Investment Plan. While this is important, it is only the first step in the longer-term and much larger defence spending increase this government has committed to. A short thread:
June 10, 2026 at 12:56 PM
Really important context from Max below: the funding gap the government might need to fill for the Defence Investment Plan is far, far below the amount that would eventually be needed to reach 3.5% of GDP on defence spending
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
This is most striking figure from Millburn Review. They estimate that around half of the 18-24 population who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are not claiming any benefits. This limits how effective any reforms to the benefit system can be in reducing the NEET rate.
May 28, 2026 at 11:09 AM
This is most striking figure from Millburn Review. They estimate that around half of the 18-24 population who are not in education, employment or training (NEET) are not claiming any benefits. This limits how effective any reforms to the benefit system can be in reducing the NEET rate.
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
It wasn’t the biggest story yesterday, but the NHS in England hit its intermediate target that 65% of patients should be waiting 18 weeks or less for elective care by Mar26. That’s after big recent improvements from 61.5% in Jan to 65.3% in March. So how was this achieved?🧵
May 15, 2026 at 12:36 PM
It wasn’t the biggest story yesterday, but the NHS in England hit its intermediate target that 65% of patients should be waiting 18 weeks or less for elective care by Mar26. That’s after big recent improvements from 61.5% in Jan to 65.3% in March. So how was this achieved?🧵
Pretty good news on growth in the first quarter of the year today, but worth not over-interpreting.
In each of the last four years, we've seen higher growth in Q1 than later in the year - you'd want to see good news later in the year to think this is a sign of a genuine improvement.
In each of the last four years, we've seen higher growth in Q1 than later in the year - you'd want to see good news later in the year to think this is a sign of a genuine improvement.
May 14, 2026 at 8:12 AM
Pretty good news on growth in the first quarter of the year today, but worth not over-interpreting.
In each of the last four years, we've seen higher growth in Q1 than later in the year - you'd want to see good news later in the year to think this is a sign of a genuine improvement.
In each of the last four years, we've seen higher growth in Q1 than later in the year - you'd want to see good news later in the year to think this is a sign of a genuine improvement.
Lot of discussion of possible tweaks to the fiscal rules.
Worth noting a 10 year rule would make it even easier for a Chancellor to meet the rule just by promising cuts well into future parliaments. And that makes it very hard for the rule to constrain borrowing in the short term.
Worth noting a 10 year rule would make it even easier for a Chancellor to meet the rule just by promising cuts well into future parliaments. And that makes it very hard for the rule to constrain borrowing in the short term.
May 12, 2026 at 1:17 PM
Lot of discussion of possible tweaks to the fiscal rules.
Worth noting a 10 year rule would make it even easier for a Chancellor to meet the rule just by promising cuts well into future parliaments. And that makes it very hard for the rule to constrain borrowing in the short term.
Worth noting a 10 year rule would make it even easier for a Chancellor to meet the rule just by promising cuts well into future parliaments. And that makes it very hard for the rule to constrain borrowing in the short term.
The House of Lords Economic Affairs committee has just published a report on the fiscal framework.
One fairly major suggestion: that the government set out an additional fiscal target, in which debt as a share of GDP is lower in the third year of the forecast than in the first year in normal times
One fairly major suggestion: that the government set out an additional fiscal target, in which debt as a share of GDP is lower in the third year of the forecast than in the first year in normal times
Fortifying the fiscal framework report published - Committees - UK Parliament
The House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee has today published its report, ‘Fortifying the fiscal framework’.
committees.parliament.uk
April 28, 2026 at 10:38 AM
The House of Lords Economic Affairs committee has just published a report on the fiscal framework.
One fairly major suggestion: that the government set out an additional fiscal target, in which debt as a share of GDP is lower in the third year of the forecast than in the first year in normal times
One fairly major suggestion: that the government set out an additional fiscal target, in which debt as a share of GDP is lower in the third year of the forecast than in the first year in normal times
Key context to talk about the cost of any potential energy support package: an energy price shock is already bad news in itself for the public finances.
Higher inflation and interest rates would push up debt interest spending, welfare spending, and put pressure on public services.
Higher inflation and interest rates would push up debt interest spending, welfare spending, and put pressure on public services.
New: War in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices, which if sustained, could put pressure on households and the public finances.
How might the government choose to respond?
📈 @peterlevell.bsky.social, @nickridpath.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton’s new briefing explores the options:
How might the government choose to respond?
📈 @peterlevell.bsky.social, @nickridpath.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton’s new briefing explores the options:
March 12, 2026 at 11:09 AM
Key context to talk about the cost of any potential energy support package: an energy price shock is already bad news in itself for the public finances.
Higher inflation and interest rates would push up debt interest spending, welfare spending, and put pressure on public services.
Higher inflation and interest rates would push up debt interest spending, welfare spending, and put pressure on public services.
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
🚨 OUT NOW 🚨 What did we learn from the Spring Statement?
📈 Labour MP @lukemurphy.bsky.social, Resolution Foundation's @jamessmithrf.bsky.social and the IFS's @nickridpath.bsky.social join @alaintolhurst.bsky.social to discuss the state of the economy
🎧 Listen now: pod.fo/e/39ea85
📈 Labour MP @lukemurphy.bsky.social, Resolution Foundation's @jamessmithrf.bsky.social and the IFS's @nickridpath.bsky.social join @alaintolhurst.bsky.social to discuss the state of the economy
🎧 Listen now: pod.fo/e/39ea85
March 6, 2026 at 1:51 PM
🚨 OUT NOW 🚨 What did we learn from the Spring Statement?
📈 Labour MP @lukemurphy.bsky.social, Resolution Foundation's @jamessmithrf.bsky.social and the IFS's @nickridpath.bsky.social join @alaintolhurst.bsky.social to discuss the state of the economy
🎧 Listen now: pod.fo/e/39ea85
📈 Labour MP @lukemurphy.bsky.social, Resolution Foundation's @jamessmithrf.bsky.social and the IFS's @nickridpath.bsky.social join @alaintolhurst.bsky.social to discuss the state of the economy
🎧 Listen now: pod.fo/e/39ea85
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
(Sidenote: this is an average - worth noting how weird the profile looks. Growth much slower in 2029-30, perhaps coincidentally the year the fiscal rules currently bind, before speeding up again thereafter...)
March 4, 2026 at 3:51 PM
(Sidenote: this is an average - worth noting how weird the profile looks. Growth much slower in 2029-30, perhaps coincidentally the year the fiscal rules currently bind, before speeding up again thereafter...)
There's lots of uncertainty about unemployment rise - OBR has consistently forecast it to come down quickly, but Bank of England suggest higher unemployment could be sustained for a few years.
This is v important for the public finances - sustained higher unemployment could hit borrowing hard.
This is v important for the public finances - sustained higher unemployment could hit borrowing hard.
March 4, 2026 at 4:17 PM
There's lots of uncertainty about unemployment rise - OBR has consistently forecast it to come down quickly, but Bank of England suggest higher unemployment could be sustained for a few years.
This is v important for the public finances - sustained higher unemployment could hit borrowing hard.
This is v important for the public finances - sustained higher unemployment could hit borrowing hard.
This is a really key point from Ben. The recent debate has focused so much on how the govt can make the numbers add up to get a forecast current budget surplus.
But a forecast budget surplus is not the same as actually running a budget surplus - delivering this will be the real challenge.
But a forecast budget surplus is not the same as actually running a budget surplus - delivering this will be the real challenge.
The government plans to reduce government borrowing by 2.5% of GDP over the next four years – a sizeable fiscal consolidation.
The question is now one of delivery. And past experience clearly shows that promising lower borrowing is easier than delivering lower borrowing.
The question is now one of delivery. And past experience clearly shows that promising lower borrowing is easier than delivering lower borrowing.
March 4, 2026 at 2:57 PM
This is a really key point from Ben. The recent debate has focused so much on how the govt can make the numbers add up to get a forecast current budget surplus.
But a forecast budget surplus is not the same as actually running a budget surplus - delivering this will be the real challenge.
But a forecast budget surplus is not the same as actually running a budget surplus - delivering this will be the real challenge.
The Spring Forecast had a higher revenue forecast, driven mainly by higher equity prices (up 8% between forecasts) adding £9bn extra receipts in 2030/31.
This is good news - but equities move regularly: given global volatility, there’s a risk higher forecast could be temporary.
This is good news - but equities move regularly: given global volatility, there’s a risk higher forecast could be temporary.
March 4, 2026 at 1:16 PM
The Spring Forecast had a higher revenue forecast, driven mainly by higher equity prices (up 8% between forecasts) adding £9bn extra receipts in 2030/31.
This is good news - but equities move regularly: given global volatility, there’s a risk higher forecast could be temporary.
This is good news - but equities move regularly: given global volatility, there’s a risk higher forecast could be temporary.
The OBR has revised its annual net migration forecast down by 50-100k, with a small negative impact on forecast tax revenues.
If new ONS data for this year shows lower immigration, the OBR could further reduce their net migration assumption, with larger effects on tax revenues.
If new ONS data for this year shows lower immigration, the OBR could further reduce their net migration assumption, with larger effects on tax revenues.
March 3, 2026 at 2:22 PM
The OBR has revised its annual net migration forecast down by 50-100k, with a small negative impact on forecast tax revenues.
If new ONS data for this year shows lower immigration, the OBR could further reduce their net migration assumption, with larger effects on tax revenues.
If new ONS data for this year shows lower immigration, the OBR could further reduce their net migration assumption, with larger effects on tax revenues.
The OBR’s current budget forecast has barely changed, with borrowing still set to fall over the next few years.
Past governments have often set out plans for a current budget surplus, but it’s very rare that they’ve achieved it. That will be the key challenge going forward.
Past governments have often set out plans for a current budget surplus, but it’s very rare that they’ve achieved it. That will be the key challenge going forward.
March 3, 2026 at 1:24 PM
The OBR’s current budget forecast has barely changed, with borrowing still set to fall over the next few years.
Past governments have often set out plans for a current budget surplus, but it’s very rare that they’ve achieved it. That will be the key challenge going forward.
Past governments have often set out plans for a current budget surplus, but it’s very rare that they’ve achieved it. That will be the key challenge going forward.
We're expecting a quiet Spring Forecast, without major policy changes or forecast revisions. But there are still things to keep an eye on.
One important one is the migration forecast, where recent data highlights potential risks to the forecast in future.
A quick thread:
One important one is the migration forecast, where recent data highlights potential risks to the forecast in future.
A quick thread:
NEW: Next week’s Spring Forecast is unlikely to contain any big policy surprises, but will set the scene for a potentially consequential Budget this autumn.
📗Read @benzaranko.bsky.social and @nickridpath.bsky.social's new briefing on what to look out for next week: ifs.org.uk/articles/loo...
📗Read @benzaranko.bsky.social and @nickridpath.bsky.social's new briefing on what to look out for next week: ifs.org.uk/articles/loo...
February 25, 2026 at 10:11 AM
We're expecting a quiet Spring Forecast, without major policy changes or forecast revisions. But there are still things to keep an eye on.
One important one is the migration forecast, where recent data highlights potential risks to the forecast in future.
A quick thread:
One important one is the migration forecast, where recent data highlights potential risks to the forecast in future.
A quick thread:
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
Today’s public finance figures show borrowing is falling, and falling even faster than forecast back in November.
This is important: the Chancellor’s plan for meeting her fiscal rules is predicated on borrowing falling significantly this year and next.
This is important: the Chancellor’s plan for meeting her fiscal rules is predicated on borrowing falling significantly this year and next.
February 20, 2026 at 8:01 AM
Today’s public finance figures show borrowing is falling, and falling even faster than forecast back in November.
This is important: the Chancellor’s plan for meeting her fiscal rules is predicated on borrowing falling significantly this year and next.
This is important: the Chancellor’s plan for meeting her fiscal rules is predicated on borrowing falling significantly this year and next.
Reposted by Nick Ridpath
Here it is, my magnum opus: an analysis of what’s wrong with the UK’s approach to fiscal policy (under this and previous governments), and a proposal for what an alternative to pass-fail fiscal rules could look like.
I’ll follow up with a longer thread later.
I’ll follow up with a longer thread later.
NEW: The UK’s approach to fiscal policy needs a rethink.
📗 Instead of pass–fail fiscal rules and the consequent fixation on ‘fiscal headroom’, @benzaranko.bsky.social’s new report argues that the UK would be better served by a new framework, based around a set of ‘fiscal traffic lights’:
📗 Instead of pass–fail fiscal rules and the consequent fixation on ‘fiscal headroom’, @benzaranko.bsky.social’s new report argues that the UK would be better served by a new framework, based around a set of ‘fiscal traffic lights’:
February 19, 2026 at 8:46 AM
Here it is, my magnum opus: an analysis of what’s wrong with the UK’s approach to fiscal policy (under this and previous governments), and a proposal for what an alternative to pass-fail fiscal rules could look like.
I’ll follow up with a longer thread later.
I’ll follow up with a longer thread later.