Nicole Grajewski
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nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
Nicole Grajewski
@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
12K followers 480 following 750 posts
Assistant Professor at Sciences Po CERI | Associate with Harvard’s Managing the Atom | working on nuclear issues involving Russia and Iran | author of Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine (OUP/Hurst)
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Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
icds-tallinn.bsky.social
Deterrence à la Carte: French, American and British Nuclear Roles in a New Security Environment

- @hfayet.bsky.social
- @mgmessmer.bsky.social
- Zuzanna Gwadera
- Michaela Dodge

Moderator: @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social

Night owl session hosted by @ifri.bsky.social
September 23, 2026 at 6:25 AM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
hurstpublishers.bsky.social
🇮🇷 🇷🇺 Happy publication day to @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and ‘Russia and Iran’, which charts the two countries’ relationship from tenuous alignment to robust partnership!

‘Deeply insightful & fascinating.’ @michaelkofman.bsky.social

25% off w/code RUSSIAIRAN25 ➡️ tinyurl.com/mtnsrhzv
A picture of a pile of 'Russia and Iran' books on an aqua background with the quotation: ‘A deeply insightful and fascinating account charting the Russian partnership with Iran, its history and role in shaping geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and beyond.’ — Michael Kofman, Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
April 30, 2026 at 6:03 AM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
hurstpublishers.bsky.social
🎙️🇷🇺🇮🇷 Listen to our author of 'Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine' @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
on Times Radio:

👉 tinyurl.com/58satj3t
Book cover of Russia and Iran next to ways to listen to Times radio: DAB, Smart Speaker, Online, and Times radio app.
April 15, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
slair.bsky.social
@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social has a great post on her substack folks should read! (I am biased because it cites the fabulous work Carl Parkin did last summer)

I think I shared some of Nicole's biases on how quickly Iran could regenerate launchers and for how long

open.substack.com/pub/axesanda...
Revisiting Iran's Missile and Drone Campaign
An early reflection on my writing and thinking during the war
open.substack.com
April 23, 2026 at 2:42 AM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
hurstpublishers.bsky.social
🇮🇷 🇷🇺 Advance stock available: the much-anticipated ‘Russia and Iran’ by @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social is now shipping!

‘A fresh understanding of this relationship. Compelling and well supported by evidence.’ @hamidrezaaz.bsky.social

25% off w/code RUSSIAIRAN25 tinyurl.com/mtnsrhzv
Print book cover and e-reader version of 'Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine' showing text with symbols from each country including drones.
April 14, 2026 at 6:46 AM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
glyko.bsky.social
The potential collapse of Iran, a valuable partner for Russia, poses a concern for Putin’s regime. Iran’s unique revolutionary logic, regional reach, and ability to confront US power make it irreplaceable for Russia www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/o... By @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social #putinism #Islamism
Iran is not a client of Russia's. It is a state with its own revolutionary logic, its own regional reach and its own willingness to confront American power. During this war, by militarizing the Strait of Hormuz, it has demonstrated that it can generate effects that will be quickly and amply felt across the world. It can exert pressure on the United States in ways that Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, cannot. If anything, for Russia these past few weeks have demonstrated precisely Iran's worth. Iran's path to ending the war on acceptable terms will narrow if fighting resumes and could close entirely if the fighting continues at length. If the Islamic republic falls, no other country in Russia's orbit can fill its role. China is too integrated into the global economy. North Korea, which has supplied Russia with weapons and soldiers in Ukraine, cannot project power far beyond the Korean Peninsula.
April 11, 2026 at 6:27 AM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
managingtheatom.bsky.social
@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social: "Mr. Putin has spent years building a coalition of the discontented around the premise that authoritarian states can outlast Western pressure... Iran, which has absorbed the most pressure and held the longest, is his proof of concept."
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/o...
Opinion | For Putin, Iran Is Something Close to Irreplaceable
www.nytimes.com
April 13, 2026 at 2:15 PM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
managingtheatom.bsky.social
In an NPR interview, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social describes Kharg Island as the “crown jewel” of Iran’s oil infrastructure, highlighting the potential consequences of a US seizure:

www.npr.org/2026/03/26/n...
Analysts say potential US operation to seize Iran's Kharg Island would be risky
The Pentagon is considering the seizure of Iran's Kharg Island. It's a risky operation, and Iran could retaliate by targeting the biggest energy facilities in the Gulf, sending prices soaring.
www.npr.org
March 30, 2026 at 6:05 PM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
nktpnd.bsky.social
"The United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran's vast missile arsenal" www.reuters.com/world/middle...
Exclusive: U.S. can only confirm about a third of Iran's missile arsenal destroyed, sources say
The assessment, which has not been previously reported, shows that while most of Iran's missiles are either destroyed or inaccessible, Tehran still has a significant missile inventory.
www.reuters.com
March 27, 2026 at 3:45 PM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
nktpnd.bsky.social
I've said this before, but part of why I continue to be bleak on prospects of prompt war termination are because Iran has *very strong incentives* to continue pain infliction (against the US/Israel/GCC and the broader world) to deter a future war by credibly communicating the magnitude of costs.
peark.es George Pearkes @peark.es · Mar 24
Incredible scenes here, it looks like the US is effectively suing for peace and Iran is saying "no thanks" while Israel is most concerned that the US might actually succeed.
www.axios.com/2026/03/24/i...
03/24/2026 13:50:18[AXS] Decrease Increase BookmarkSearch foHide U.S. awaits Iran's response on peace summit as Israel watches warily Summary by Bloomberg AI • The U.S. and a group of regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as Thursday, but are still waiting for a response from Tehran. • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned Trump might strike a deal that falls well short of Israel's objectives, includes significant concessions, and limits Israel's ability to conduct strikes against Iran. • The U.S. gave Iran a 15-point proposal for a possible deal to end the war, but it's unclear if anyone with authority in Tehran has actually agreed to the terms. By Barak Ravid (Axios) The U.S. and a group of regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as Thursday, but are still waiting for a response from Tehran, two sources with knowledge of the discussions tell Axios. Why it matters: President Trump is interested in winding down the war, but Iran's chokehold on the Gulf of Hormuz complicates any potential exit strategy. The U.S. has shared with Israel its 15-point plan to end the war and claimed Iran had agreed to many of the key points. There's been no tangible evidence of any such agreement. • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned Trump might strike a deal that falls well short of Israel's objectives, includes significant concessions, and limits Israel's ability to conduct strikes against Iran, two Israeli sources say. • A third source said Israeli leaders were skeptical Iran had actually offered the concessions the U.S. claimed.
March 24, 2026 at 6:47 PM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
nktpnd.bsky.social
Much of this is also a consequence of how Iran mismanaged its post-Oct 2023 approach to deterrence, as @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and I discussed last week; the new constellation of Iranian leaders have learned: www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/stunnin...
The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence
And why it augurs a more dangerous world.
www.foreignaffairs.com
March 24, 2026 at 6:51 PM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
ceip-politika.bsky.social
🎧 NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social, and Sergey Vakulenko discuss what the war in Iran means for Moscow. How does it affect Russian influence in the region, and its position on global energy markets?
How Is the Iran War Affecting Russia? With Nicole Grajewski and Sergey Vakulenko
Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by his colleagues Nicole Grajewski, a non-resident fellow at Carnegie Endowment and the author of Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine, and Se...
carnegieendowment.org
March 19, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
foreignaffairs.com
The United States’ actions in Iran are making nuclear weapons look “more attractive than ever,” warn @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and @nktpnd.bsky.social. Today, “would-be nuclear states understand the urgency of developing a weapon in secret.”
The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence
And why it augurs a more dangerous world.
fam.ag
March 19, 2026 at 5:55 PM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
carnegieendowment.org
Iran’s weakening deterrence capabilities point to a deeper strategic problem unfolding today.

@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and @nktpnd.bsky.social unpack the forces behind Iran’s military expansion and the vulnerabilities now coming forward: www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/stunnin...
The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence
And why it augurs a more dangerous world.
www.foreignaffairs.com
March 19, 2026 at 8:34 PM
nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
In our new @foreignaffairs.com piece, @nktpnd.bsky.social and I examine how Iran’s deterrent unraveled and what that failure signals for future nuclear aspirants. www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/stunnin...
The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence
And why it augurs a more dangerous world.
www.foreignaffairs.com
March 19, 2026 at 10:05 AM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
nktpnd.bsky.social
I have a new piece out in @foreignaffairs.com, with @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social, on Iran’s deterrence missteps from late-2023 onward that created the conditions for this war. We reflect on the implications for nonproliferation going forward. www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/stunnin...
The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence
And why it augurs a more dangerous world.
www.foreignaffairs.com
March 19, 2026 at 6:50 AM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
carnegieendowment.org
The war in Iran, now in its third week, has had serious regional consequences. That puts Armenia and Azerbaijan “on the front line of regional instability,” writes Zaur Shiriyev.

Read here: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Iran’s Northern Neighbors Are Facing Fallout From the War, Too
The conflict is threatening stability in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
carnegieendowment.org
March 16, 2026 at 8:23 PM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
carnegieendowment.org
Russia and Iran have close ties, culminating in a major treaty last year. But as the war in Iran continues, Russia has largely “stood idly by” -- why?

@alexgabuev.bsky.social, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and Sergey Vakulenko explained for @foreignaffairs.com: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/why-r...
Why Russia Is Watching Iran Burn
The Kremlin is in no hurry to save its closest partner in the Middle East.
www.foreignaffairs.com
March 16, 2026 at 7:48 PM
nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
New post on Iran’s targets during its initial retaliation on Feb. 28. It examines the targeting logic behind three parallel campaigns: striking U.S. C2/ISR infrastructure, imposing costs on the GCC states, and pressuring Israeli civilian centers. www.axesandatoms.com/p/irans-febr...
March 12, 2026 at 2:43 PM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
ceip-politika.bsky.social
"Most of Moscow’s military resources are tied up in Ukraine, while Beijing’s foreign policy prioritizes economic ties and avoids direct conflict." Alexander Gabuev and Temur Umarov explain why neither Russia nor China has offered any tangible support to Iran.
Why Are China and Russia Not Rushing to Help Iran?
Most of Moscow’s military resources are tied up in Ukraine, while Beijing’s foreign policy prioritizes economic ties and avoids direct conflict.
carnegieendowment.org
March 11, 2026 at 4:52 PM
nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
CNN reports Russia is now providing Iran with more specific operational guidance on UAV employment, including targeting approaches derived from its use of Shahed drones in Ukraine.

This is not very surprising but good to have it confirmed.
March 11, 2026 at 5:25 PM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
francoisdm.bsky.social
🚨 JUST IN: I wrote about Trump's self-induced dilemma of sending US troops to seize or destroy Iran's highly enriched uranium.

#Iran #Isfahan #uranium #Trump #nuclearweapons #nukesky @thebulletin.org
Trump may send US troops to neutralize Iran's highly enriched uranium. There are no good options
Deploying US troops to seize or destroy Iran's highly enriched uranium would bring significant chemical, logistical, and tactical hurdles.
thebulletin.org
March 10, 2026 at 12:20 AM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
rikefranke.eu
Good piece by @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social

www.axesandatoms.com/p/10-days-of...
10 Days of War and 30-something Waves of Operation True Promise 4
What I am tracking and where I remain puzzled
www.axesandatoms.com
March 11, 2026 at 8:42 AM
Reposted by Nicole Grajewski
managingtheatom.bsky.social
What are the military risks of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran?

@nicolegrajewski.bsky.social discusses the strategic implications in an interview with the Malcolm H. Kerr @carnegiemec.bsky.social.

carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...
The Greatest Dangers May Lie Ahead
In an interview, Nicole Grajewski discusses the military dimension of the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran.
carnegieendowment.org
March 11, 2026 at 12:09 PM
nicolegrajewski.bsky.social
Wrote this article yesterday before the news of Russia’s support to Iran was reported www.russiamatters.org/analysis/ira...
March 6, 2026 at 7:29 PM