Beau
@runningsignal.com
Backyard economist. Macro/micro coverage of the economy, trade, and technology.
Opinions here don't get etched in stone.
Opinions here don't get etched in stone.
It’s all coming out in the Warsh
in case you missed it, Fed rate rise and presser greeted with stronger dollar and flatter curve
Story: Donald Trump fails to bend the Federal Reserve to his will
www.ft.com/content/fb8e...
As it happened blog:
www.ft.com/content/61b5...
Story: Donald Trump fails to bend the Federal Reserve to his will
www.ft.com/content/fb8e...
As it happened blog:
www.ft.com/content/61b5...
September 17, 2026 at 10:19 AM
It’s all coming out in the Warsh
Canada going to the EU is no different in my mind than Notre Dame tying itself to the ACC.
September 16, 2026 at 4:25 PM
Canada going to the EU is no different in my mind than Notre Dame tying itself to the ACC.
When it comes to AI doomer discourse, am I wrong in thinking it’s a more American myopia? You can argue our models are at the frontier, but others are close enough to where they’d take heed of potential ruin. Instead, China has seemed quite mum. Working more on application than prophecy.
September 16, 2026 at 4:23 PM
When it comes to AI doomer discourse, am I wrong in thinking it’s a more American myopia? You can argue our models are at the frontier, but others are close enough to where they’d take heed of potential ruin. Instead, China has seemed quite mum. Working more on application than prophecy.
Reposted by Beau
they dont give me enough characters here so I'll have to screenshot this...
September 16, 2026 at 4:05 PM
they dont give me enough characters here so I'll have to screenshot this...
We need to be afraid but we can’t capitulate. The future is written by what we do, not what we perceive. But we have to do something.
This administration needs to end. There’s no plea to be a democrat. There is weight on the future of the world by how America proceeds.
This administration needs to end. There’s no plea to be a democrat. There is weight on the future of the world by how America proceeds.
September 16, 2026 at 12:32 AM
We need to be afraid but we can’t capitulate. The future is written by what we do, not what we perceive. But we have to do something.
This administration needs to end. There’s no plea to be a democrat. There is weight on the future of the world by how America proceeds.
This administration needs to end. There’s no plea to be a democrat. There is weight on the future of the world by how America proceeds.
Something meaningful is going on between the climate and global financial markets. Much is now exacerbated but not wholly fault of recent policies.
Nothing just breaks one day. We’ll know more as we progress versus how we time it. Either way, rubber is meeting road on how we respond.
Nothing just breaks one day. We’ll know more as we progress versus how we time it. Either way, rubber is meeting road on how we respond.
September 16, 2026 at 12:29 AM
Something meaningful is going on between the climate and global financial markets. Much is now exacerbated but not wholly fault of recent policies.
Nothing just breaks one day. We’ll know more as we progress versus how we time it. Either way, rubber is meeting road on how we respond.
Nothing just breaks one day. We’ll know more as we progress versus how we time it. Either way, rubber is meeting road on how we respond.
Brutal. The problem for many truck drivers filling up at these prices is hitting $ fill limits at the pump and on fuel cards.
They end up having to stop more often.
They end up having to stop more often.
speechless. at this point, we're talking $7/gal diesel again becoming a possibility in the days ahead in more places, specifically Great Lakes- MI, IN, OH, IL (less so WI- lower taxes)
September 15, 2026 at 9:55 PM
Brutal. The problem for many truck drivers filling up at these prices is hitting $ fill limits at the pump and on fuel cards.
They end up having to stop more often.
They end up having to stop more often.
The first rule of the rationalist fight club is to be irrational
The U.S. AI industry is being run by a batshit rationalist sex cult, and no, I am not being hyperbolic - they’re genuinely Like That:
September 15, 2026 at 8:44 PM
The first rule of the rationalist fight club is to be irrational
Reposted by Beau
I have been seeking hard answers to HOW exactly AI is going to cause humanity's extinction in four years and literally not a single person has given me a remotely plausible scenario beyond "some guy makes a virus."
The U.S. AI industry is being run by a batshit rationalist sex cult, and no, I am not being hyperbolic - they’re genuinely Like That:
September 15, 2026 at 8:32 PM
I have been seeking hard answers to HOW exactly AI is going to cause humanity's extinction in four years and literally not a single person has given me a remotely plausible scenario beyond "some guy makes a virus."
Albeit, I was using Fable today, it seemed like I hit limits rather quickly. Wasn't a ton of work either. I knew it was only a matter of time before the throttle started choking up even for higher plans.
September 15, 2026 at 8:20 PM
Albeit, I was using Fable today, it seemed like I hit limits rather quickly. Wasn't a ton of work either. I knew it was only a matter of time before the throttle started choking up even for higher plans.
Gulp
the Great Lakes is about to wipe out its spring diesel records... Chicago spot diesel now commanding a **32** cent premium on ULSD vs the spring *peak*
September 15, 2026 at 5:19 PM
Gulp
More like Brent Rude
this Brent guy has no chill
Dated Brent (the physical spot price) closed above $130/bbl yesterday.
Higher than all but a few days in 2008/2022/April 2026.
Higher than all but a few days in 2008/2022/April 2026.
September 15, 2026 at 5:08 PM
More like Brent Rude
Reposted by Beau
Unlike a certain much-touted EV heavy truck, this one is sized and shaped appropriately for Europe (and other markets).
BYD unveils flagship 600 km electric truck with 1.5 MW charging
electrek.co/2026/09/14/b...
electrek.co/2026/09/14/b...
BYD unveils flagship 600 km electric truck with 1.5 MW charging
BYD unveiled the ETT 44, a 600 km electric truck with a 651 kWh Blade Battery and 1.5 MW megawatt charging that refills 20-80% in 20 minutes.
electrek.co
September 15, 2026 at 9:18 AM
Unlike a certain much-touted EV heavy truck, this one is sized and shaped appropriately for Europe (and other markets).
So we’re now facing the energy crisis we assumed months ago before China began drawing reserves. Was just on a tape delay.
September 15, 2026 at 4:23 PM
So we’re now facing the energy crisis we assumed months ago before China began drawing reserves. Was just on a tape delay.
Reposted by Beau
Diesel new highs, China crude making new record premiums vs Brent, backwardation accelerating, tanker rates exploding. All of this suggests the crude market is tightening rapidly because China has stopped relying on strategic draws. Much more impt than the US SPR if it sustains.
September 15, 2026 at 10:14 AM
Diesel new highs, China crude making new record premiums vs Brent, backwardation accelerating, tanker rates exploding. All of this suggests the crude market is tightening rapidly because China has stopped relying on strategic draws. Much more impt than the US SPR if it sustains.
Sweeet buttery biscuits
ALL-TIME HIGH DIESEL CRACK
The US diesel crack spread (i.e., refining margin) is now sitting above $111/bbl (vs Brent), the highest level on record.
The industrial workhorse fuel is currently trading at roughly $220/bbl, more than double the price of prompt crude futures.
The US diesel crack spread (i.e., refining margin) is now sitting above $111/bbl (vs Brent), the highest level on record.
The industrial workhorse fuel is currently trading at roughly $220/bbl, more than double the price of prompt crude futures.
September 15, 2026 at 3:26 PM
Sweeet buttery biscuits
👀
BYD unveils flagship 600 km electric truck with 1.5 MW charging
electrek.co/2026/09/14/b...
electrek.co/2026/09/14/b...
BYD unveils flagship 600 km electric truck with 1.5 MW charging
BYD unveiled the ETT 44, a 600 km electric truck with a 651 kWh Blade Battery and 1.5 MW megawatt charging that refills 20-80% in 20 minutes.
electrek.co
September 15, 2026 at 8:15 AM
👀
Reposted by Beau
Trump has only declared victory in the Iran war once this month. Concerning.
September 14, 2026 at 5:24 PM
Trump has only declared victory in the Iran war once this month. Concerning.
Reposted by Beau
Watch to the end of the video...
NEW: In a new audio recording, GOP Gov nominee Victor Marx suggests that his campaign filed someone else's large contribution under Marx's name to avoid campaign finance limits.
September 15, 2026 at 7:01 AM
Watch to the end of the video...
Reposted by Beau
"Diesel Prices Are Surging, But a Bigger Fertilizer Crisis Could Be Right Behind It" share.google/LNXs6ElsjQav...
September 15, 2026 at 1:24 AM
"Diesel Prices Are Surging, But a Bigger Fertilizer Crisis Could Be Right Behind It" share.google/LNXs6ElsjQav...
The banks reporting lower truckload demand are seeing composition effects versus aggregate.
They have legacy retail and manufacturing sectors that are as anemic as reporting suggests. AI capex just isn’t jamming the same channels.
Miller’s ton-mile index shows the aggregated demand cycle spike.
They have legacy retail and manufacturing sectors that are as anemic as reporting suggests. AI capex just isn’t jamming the same channels.
Miller’s ton-mile index shows the aggregated demand cycle spike.
September 15, 2026 at 1:31 AM
The banks reporting lower truckload demand are seeing composition effects versus aggregate.
They have legacy retail and manufacturing sectors that are as anemic as reporting suggests. AI capex just isn’t jamming the same channels.
Miller’s ton-mile index shows the aggregated demand cycle spike.
They have legacy retail and manufacturing sectors that are as anemic as reporting suggests. AI capex just isn’t jamming the same channels.
Miller’s ton-mile index shows the aggregated demand cycle spike.