Shel Winkley
@shelwinkleywx.bsky.social
@climatecentral.org | Former @kbtx.com Chief Meteorologist | AMS CBM #780 | TAMU Class of 2007 | 🔴 🌎 Climate Change is Real.
Latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for the a 3 foot or greater storm surge at 📍Gulf Shores, AL
@climatecentral.org's FloodVision recently mapped the area to show what this coastal flooding could look like.
📍Here's what that could look like for E Beach Blvd ⤵️
@climatecentral.org's FloodVision recently mapped the area to show what this coastal flooding could look like.
📍Here's what that could look like for E Beach Blvd ⤵️
October 8, 2026 at 2:45 PM
Latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for the a 3 foot or greater storm surge at 📍Gulf Shores, AL
@climatecentral.org's FloodVision recently mapped the area to show what this coastal flooding could look like.
📍Here's what that could look like for E Beach Blvd ⤵️
@climatecentral.org's FloodVision recently mapped the area to show what this coastal flooding could look like.
📍Here's what that could look like for E Beach Blvd ⤵️
Warmer oceans Contribute to an increased fraction of tropical cyclones that strengthen quickly...aka rapid intensification.
From 1980 to 2025, 190 Atlantic tropical cyclones rapidly intensified, and nearly one-quarter of these storms rapidly intensified at extreme rates.
From 1980 to 2025, 190 Atlantic tropical cyclones rapidly intensified, and nearly one-quarter of these storms rapidly intensified at extreme rates.
October 8, 2026 at 4:23 AM
Warmer oceans Contribute to an increased fraction of tropical cyclones that strengthen quickly...aka rapid intensification.
From 1980 to 2025, 190 Atlantic tropical cyclones rapidly intensified, and nearly one-quarter of these storms rapidly intensified at extreme rates.
From 1980 to 2025, 190 Atlantic tropical cyclones rapidly intensified, and nearly one-quarter of these storms rapidly intensified at extreme rates.
#Isaias has been slogging through West Gulf waters 3.5-4.5°F above average for early October.
@climatecentral.org's #ClimateShiftIndex shows this warmth would be almost impossible without climate change.
Its path to hurricane status stays over warmer waters, made more likely by the same.
@climatecentral.org's #ClimateShiftIndex shows this warmth would be almost impossible without climate change.
Its path to hurricane status stays over warmer waters, made more likely by the same.
October 7, 2026 at 11:40 PM
#Isaias has been slogging through West Gulf waters 3.5-4.5°F above average for early October.
@climatecentral.org's #ClimateShiftIndex shows this warmth would be almost impossible without climate change.
Its path to hurricane status stays over warmer waters, made more likely by the same.
@climatecentral.org's #ClimateShiftIndex shows this warmth would be almost impossible without climate change.
Its path to hurricane status stays over warmer waters, made more likely by the same.
Reposted by Shel Winkley
Some important differences between the conventional physics-based models (European and American ensembles are 1st and 2nd panels) and the AI models (Google Deepmind operational and experimental ensembles are 3rd and 4th panels).
The differences in both track and intensity are obvious.
#Isaias
The differences in both track and intensity are obvious.
#Isaias
October 7, 2026 at 3:34 PM
Some important differences between the conventional physics-based models (European and American ensembles are 1st and 2nd panels) and the AI models (Google Deepmind operational and experimental ensembles are 3rd and 4th panels).
The differences in both track and intensity are obvious.
#Isaias
The differences in both track and intensity are obvious.
#Isaias
Tropical Depression #NINE has formed & on track to become Hurricane #Isaias in coming days
1st forecast from the National Hurricane Center has this as a ~100mph Category 2 hurricane ahead of landfall, with some slight weakening before moving inland (although as a wide storm w/ far reaching impacts)
1st forecast from the National Hurricane Center has this as a ~100mph Category 2 hurricane ahead of landfall, with some slight weakening before moving inland (although as a wide storm w/ far reaching impacts)
October 6, 2026 at 9:30 PM
As of Monday AM, @noaa.gov's National Hurricane Center has a HIGH 70% chance for tropical development in the South/Central Gulf of Mexico this week
Tropical depression is expected by middle-to-end of the week. After drifting east fora few days, it will turn north w/ potential impacts by weekend
Tropical depression is expected by middle-to-end of the week. After drifting east fora few days, it will turn north w/ potential impacts by weekend
October 5, 2026 at 2:19 PM
As of Monday AM, @noaa.gov's National Hurricane Center has a HIGH 70% chance for tropical development in the South/Central Gulf of Mexico this week
Tropical depression is expected by middle-to-end of the week. After drifting east fora few days, it will turn north w/ potential impacts by weekend
Tropical depression is expected by middle-to-end of the week. After drifting east fora few days, it will turn north w/ potential impacts by weekend
Eyes on the Gulf of Mexico this week.
National Hurricane Center has upped the odds of development to a MEDIUM chance.
This potential system will be feeding off RECORD warmth made *up to* 800x more likely to be this unusually warm in October by human-caused climate change.
National Hurricane Center has upped the odds of development to a MEDIUM chance.
This potential system will be feeding off RECORD warmth made *up to* 800x more likely to be this unusually warm in October by human-caused climate change.
October 4, 2026 at 5:58 PM
Eyes on the Gulf of Mexico this week.
National Hurricane Center has upped the odds of development to a MEDIUM chance.
This potential system will be feeding off RECORD warmth made *up to* 800x more likely to be this unusually warm in October by human-caused climate change.
National Hurricane Center has upped the odds of development to a MEDIUM chance.
This potential system will be feeding off RECORD warmth made *up to* 800x more likely to be this unusually warm in October by human-caused climate change.
October 4, 2026 at 5:35 PM
Sky's falling over Kyle Field this afternoon
October 3, 2026 at 9:20 PM
Sky's falling over Kyle Field this afternoon
2:55pm Radar: Cluster of cloud-to-cloud lightning strikes popping 11 to 16mi east of Kyle Field over the last 10min.
Low concern for GameDay activities at this moment, but worth keeping an eye on apps w/ lightning notifications
Low concern for GameDay activities at this moment, but worth keeping an eye on apps w/ lightning notifications
October 3, 2026 at 7:58 PM
2:55pm Radar: Cluster of cloud-to-cloud lightning strikes popping 11 to 16mi east of Kyle Field over the last 10min.
Low concern for GameDay activities at this moment, but worth keeping an eye on apps w/ lightning notifications
Low concern for GameDay activities at this moment, but worth keeping an eye on apps w/ lightning notifications
2:25pm Radar: Healthy splash of rain (~7mi from Kyle Field) on the Southeast side of College Station, headed northwest.
No lightning concerns at the moment. Could bring wind 15-20mph as it nears/passes by #bcstx #Aggieland
No lightning concerns at the moment. Could bring wind 15-20mph as it nears/passes by #bcstx #Aggieland
October 3, 2026 at 7:27 PM
2:25pm Radar: Healthy splash of rain (~7mi from Kyle Field) on the Southeast side of College Station, headed northwest.
No lightning concerns at the moment. Could bring wind 15-20mph as it nears/passes by #bcstx #Aggieland
No lightning concerns at the moment. Could bring wind 15-20mph as it nears/passes by #bcstx #Aggieland
Latest iteration for what the radar could look like over #Aggieland this afternoon & evening.
1) Something to keep in mind for tailgates & through the first quarter or two of tonight's @aggiesfootball.bsky.social v Arkansas
2) Lightning potential not ruled out (mainly 5pm - 9pm)
1) Something to keep in mind for tailgates & through the first quarter or two of tonight's @aggiesfootball.bsky.social v Arkansas
2) Lightning potential not ruled out (mainly 5pm - 9pm)
October 3, 2026 at 5:10 PM
Latest iteration for what the radar could look like over #Aggieland this afternoon & evening.
1) Something to keep in mind for tailgates & through the first quarter or two of tonight's @aggiesfootball.bsky.social v Arkansas
2) Lightning potential not ruled out (mainly 5pm - 9pm)
1) Something to keep in mind for tailgates & through the first quarter or two of tonight's @aggiesfootball.bsky.social v Arkansas
2) Lightning potential not ruled out (mainly 5pm - 9pm)
Heat Advisories & Excessive Heat Warnings cover most of California Saturday.
🌡️Highs in the 90s-low 100s running 15°-20° ABOVE average -- some of the top 5 hottest on record for Oct. 3rd.
🔴37.6K folks experiencing unusual October heat made at least 2x more likely by heat trapping pollution #cawx
🌡️Highs in the 90s-low 100s running 15°-20° ABOVE average -- some of the top 5 hottest on record for Oct. 3rd.
🔴37.6K folks experiencing unusual October heat made at least 2x more likely by heat trapping pollution #cawx
October 3, 2026 at 3:24 PM
Heat Advisories & Excessive Heat Warnings cover most of California Saturday.
🌡️Highs in the 90s-low 100s running 15°-20° ABOVE average -- some of the top 5 hottest on record for Oct. 3rd.
🔴37.6K folks experiencing unusual October heat made at least 2x more likely by heat trapping pollution #cawx
🌡️Highs in the 90s-low 100s running 15°-20° ABOVE average -- some of the top 5 hottest on record for Oct. 3rd.
🔴37.6K folks experiencing unusual October heat made at least 2x more likely by heat trapping pollution #cawx
Grab the ponchos, Ags.
Morning data gives gameday a healthy chance for rain (with a potential lightning concern) mid-afternoon through early evening.
Messy atmosphere out there. Doesn't mean all of tailgating & @aggiesfootball.bsky.social v Arkansas is a wash -- but we'll need to monitor #txwx
Morning data gives gameday a healthy chance for rain (with a potential lightning concern) mid-afternoon through early evening.
Messy atmosphere out there. Doesn't mean all of tailgating & @aggiesfootball.bsky.social v Arkansas is a wash -- but we'll need to monitor #txwx
October 3, 2026 at 2:43 PM
Grab the ponchos, Ags.
Morning data gives gameday a healthy chance for rain (with a potential lightning concern) mid-afternoon through early evening.
Messy atmosphere out there. Doesn't mean all of tailgating & @aggiesfootball.bsky.social v Arkansas is a wash -- but we'll need to monitor #txwx
Morning data gives gameday a healthy chance for rain (with a potential lightning concern) mid-afternoon through early evening.
Messy atmosphere out there. Doesn't mean all of tailgating & @aggiesfootball.bsky.social v Arkansas is a wash -- but we'll need to monitor #txwx
Parched grounds drink slowly.
Our warming atmosphere pours the pint faster.
Rain is a good thing.
Just not when it falls all at once.
Our warming atmosphere pours the pint faster.
Rain is a good thing.
Just not when it falls all at once.
October 1, 2026 at 7:52 PM
Parched grounds drink slowly.
Our warming atmosphere pours the pint faster.
Rain is a good thing.
Just not when it falls all at once.
Our warming atmosphere pours the pint faster.
Rain is a good thing.
Just not when it falls all at once.
What makes this El Niño one for the record books?
What's hype?
What's real?
What do we know about the role of climate change?
@chasecain.bsky.social hops into the warm waters ⤵️
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLUU...
What's hype?
What's real?
What do we know about the role of climate change?
@chasecain.bsky.social hops into the warm waters ⤵️
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLUU...
What Happens When Super El Niño Hits California?
YouTube video by Chase Cain
www.youtube.com
September 30, 2026 at 9:25 PM
What makes this El Niño one for the record books?
What's hype?
What's real?
What do we know about the role of climate change?
@chasecain.bsky.social hops into the warm waters ⤵️
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLUU...
What's hype?
What's real?
What do we know about the role of climate change?
@chasecain.bsky.social hops into the warm waters ⤵️
www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLUU...
These forecast rainfall totals are FAR FROM PERFECT -- but model data has been suggesting the potential for a corridor of flooding rainfall along or near I-35
⏰Thursday-Friday, lingering Saturday
Weather Prediction Center has 3 out of 4 risk for EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (flood threat) in place #txwx
⏰Thursday-Friday, lingering Saturday
Weather Prediction Center has 3 out of 4 risk for EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (flood threat) in place #txwx
September 29, 2026 at 4:16 PM
These forecast rainfall totals are FAR FROM PERFECT -- but model data has been suggesting the potential for a corridor of flooding rainfall along or near I-35
⏰Thursday-Friday, lingering Saturday
Weather Prediction Center has 3 out of 4 risk for EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (flood threat) in place #txwx
⏰Thursday-Friday, lingering Saturday
Weather Prediction Center has 3 out of 4 risk for EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (flood threat) in place #txwx
What'cha doing around 1pm EDT?
Join @climatecentral.org & @coveringclimatenow.org as we chat through the latest on this big ol' El Niño
• What is El Niño doing?
• More importantly, what are the impacts of climate change & NOT just El Niño
• How can you tell these stories through winter?
Join @climatecentral.org & @coveringclimatenow.org as we chat through the latest on this big ol' El Niño
• What is El Niño doing?
• More importantly, what are the impacts of climate change & NOT just El Niño
• How can you tell these stories through winter?
September 29, 2026 at 3:29 PM
What'cha doing around 1pm EDT?
Join @climatecentral.org & @coveringclimatenow.org as we chat through the latest on this big ol' El Niño
• What is El Niño doing?
• More importantly, what are the impacts of climate change & NOT just El Niño
• How can you tell these stories through winter?
Join @climatecentral.org & @coveringclimatenow.org as we chat through the latest on this big ol' El Niño
• What is El Niño doing?
• More importantly, what are the impacts of climate change & NOT just El Niño
• How can you tell these stories through winter?
With three months left to go, the folks at @berkeleyearth.org are all but certain that 2026 will land as the all-time HOTTEST year on record for this blue marble we call Earth.
Currently, the list stands as:
#1: 2024
#2: 2023
#3: 2025
#4: 2016
#5: 2020
Currently, the list stands as:
#1: 2024
#2: 2023
#3: 2025
#4: 2016
#5: 2020
September 28, 2026 at 7:22 PM
With three months left to go, the folks at @berkeleyearth.org are all but certain that 2026 will land as the all-time HOTTEST year on record for this blue marble we call Earth.
Currently, the list stands as:
#1: 2024
#2: 2023
#3: 2025
#4: 2016
#5: 2020
Currently, the list stands as:
#1: 2024
#2: 2023
#3: 2025
#4: 2016
#5: 2020
Maddening, intentional doubt-inducing article from @theatlantic.com here:
• heavy leaned on background & quotes a common mis-information spreader
• tries to shift guilt to everyday people living as they live their lives
www.theatlantic.com/science/2026...
• heavy leaned on background & quotes a common mis-information spreader
• tries to shift guilt to everyday people living as they live their lives
www.theatlantic.com/science/2026...
An Existential Threat to the Oil Industry
Can the energy giants be held responsible for extreme weather?
www.theatlantic.com
September 27, 2026 at 4:07 PM
Maddening, intentional doubt-inducing article from @theatlantic.com here:
• heavy leaned on background & quotes a common mis-information spreader
• tries to shift guilt to everyday people living as they live their lives
www.theatlantic.com/science/2026...
• heavy leaned on background & quotes a common mis-information spreader
• tries to shift guilt to everyday people living as they live their lives
www.theatlantic.com/science/2026...
Call it a nor'easter...call it a coastal storm... whatever we call it, it will impact the Northeast through the weekend.
Dangerous surf
Coastal flooding
Breaking waves 15ft+
3" - 5" of rain
Storm like this in late September? Not totally unusual.
The water this storm is developing over, however...
Dangerous surf
Coastal flooding
Breaking waves 15ft+
3" - 5" of rain
Storm like this in late September? Not totally unusual.
The water this storm is developing over, however...
September 25, 2026 at 4:35 PM
Call it a nor'easter...call it a coastal storm... whatever we call it, it will impact the Northeast through the weekend.
Dangerous surf
Coastal flooding
Breaking waves 15ft+
3" - 5" of rain
Storm like this in late September? Not totally unusual.
The water this storm is developing over, however...
Dangerous surf
Coastal flooding
Breaking waves 15ft+
3" - 5" of rain
Storm like this in late September? Not totally unusual.
The water this storm is developing over, however...
#Polo was a tropical storm yesterday.
Today it is a Cat 5 hurricane.
110 mph gained in just 24 hours. Almost doubling the threshold of Extreme Rapid Intensification.
Fueling it: ocean warmth ~3-3.5°F above average, made up to 200x more likely by heat-trapping pollution.
Today it is a Cat 5 hurricane.
110 mph gained in just 24 hours. Almost doubling the threshold of Extreme Rapid Intensification.
Fueling it: ocean warmth ~3-3.5°F above average, made up to 200x more likely by heat-trapping pollution.
September 22, 2026 at 2:22 PM
#Polo was a tropical storm yesterday.
Today it is a Cat 5 hurricane.
110 mph gained in just 24 hours. Almost doubling the threshold of Extreme Rapid Intensification.
Fueling it: ocean warmth ~3-3.5°F above average, made up to 200x more likely by heat-trapping pollution.
Today it is a Cat 5 hurricane.
110 mph gained in just 24 hours. Almost doubling the threshold of Extreme Rapid Intensification.
Fueling it: ocean warmth ~3-3.5°F above average, made up to 200x more likely by heat-trapping pollution.
#Polo is forecast to rapidly intensify over the next day, jumping from TS to Cat 3, gaining ~45mph between today and tomorrow, per NHC.
This fast boost of intensity happening over unusually warm Pacific waters, ~3°F above normal...
...made at least 200x more likely by heat-trapping pollution.
This fast boost of intensity happening over unusually warm Pacific waters, ~3°F above normal...
...made at least 200x more likely by heat-trapping pollution.
September 21, 2026 at 1:05 PM
#Polo is forecast to rapidly intensify over the next day, jumping from TS to Cat 3, gaining ~45mph between today and tomorrow, per NHC.
This fast boost of intensity happening over unusually warm Pacific waters, ~3°F above normal...
...made at least 200x more likely by heat-trapping pollution.
This fast boost of intensity happening over unusually warm Pacific waters, ~3°F above normal...
...made at least 200x more likely by heat-trapping pollution.