Csaba G. Tóth
@tothgcsaba.bsky.social
Demographer and economist.
population dynamics | mortality | population ageing | fertility | public policy
https://sites.google.com/view/tothgcs
population dynamics | mortality | population ageing | fertility | public policy
https://sites.google.com/view/tothgcs
Pinned
Csaba G. Tóth
@tothgcsaba.bsky.social
· Oct 23
📢My paper is out in Population and Development Review.😀Central and Eastern Europe’s population change isn’t just about fertility, mortality, and migration — the age structure also an important factor.
#demography #ageing #fertility #Hungary #Poland #Romania #migration
doi.org/10.1111/padr...
#demography #ageing #fertility #Hungary #Poland #Romania #migration
doi.org/10.1111/padr...
Reposted by Csaba G. Tóth
📢My paper is out in Population and Development Review.😀Central and Eastern Europe’s population change isn’t just about fertility, mortality, and migration — the age structure also an important factor.
#demography #ageing #fertility #Hungary #Poland #Romania #migration
doi.org/10.1111/padr...
#demography #ageing #fertility #Hungary #Poland #Romania #migration
doi.org/10.1111/padr...
October 23, 2025 at 8:06 PM
📢My paper is out in Population and Development Review.😀Central and Eastern Europe’s population change isn’t just about fertility, mortality, and migration — the age structure also an important factor.
#demography #ageing #fertility #Hungary #Poland #Romania #migration
doi.org/10.1111/padr...
#demography #ageing #fertility #Hungary #Poland #Romania #migration
doi.org/10.1111/padr...
Reposted by Csaba G. Tóth
For decades, it's been a truism that younger generations are healthier & live longer (on average) than their parents' generation. Sadly, there are signs that our health may be "drifting" backward.
Read more about "generational health drift": jenndowd.substack.com/p/is-50-the-... #demography
Read more about "generational health drift": jenndowd.substack.com/p/is-50-the-... #demography
September 22, 2026 at 5:37 PM
For decades, it's been a truism that younger generations are healthier & live longer (on average) than their parents' generation. Sadly, there are signs that our health may be "drifting" backward.
Read more about "generational health drift": jenndowd.substack.com/p/is-50-the-... #demography
Read more about "generational health drift": jenndowd.substack.com/p/is-50-the-... #demography
Reposted by Csaba G. Tóth
1/ New in @pnasnexus.org: Demography strikes again! The mortality penalty associated w/ smoking has seemingly grown over time. Speculation centered on biological reasons, like more intensive smoking, or more negative selection of smokers on other characteristics. academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Why the mortality penalty of smoking is rising over time
Abstract. The adverse association between smoking and mortality is well known, yet estimated risks for smokers have risen markedly in recent decades. Expla
academic.oup.com
September 22, 2026 at 9:50 PM
1/ New in @pnasnexus.org: Demography strikes again! The mortality penalty associated w/ smoking has seemingly grown over time. Speculation centered on biological reasons, like more intensive smoking, or more negative selection of smokers on other characteristics. academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Women reach age 45 with an average of more than 2 children in France and Ireland—but only 1.35 in Spain and 1.44 in Italy. Not a single EU country reaches the replacement level of around 2.1.
#demography #fertility #EU
#demography #fertility #EU
September 2, 2026 at 10:48 PM
Women reach age 45 with an average of more than 2 children in France and Ireland—but only 1.35 in Spain and 1.44 in Italy. Not a single EU country reaches the replacement level of around 2.1.
#demography #fertility #EU
#demography #fertility #EU
Hungary’s migration balance has recently fallen to nearly zero, further accelerating population decline. This was driven mainly by a sharp rise in the emigration of Asian nationals living in Hungary.
#demography #Hungary #migration #Asia #population
#demography #Hungary #migration #Asia #population
August 28, 2026 at 9:46 AM
Hungary’s migration balance has recently fallen to nearly zero, further accelerating population decline. This was driven mainly by a sharp rise in the emigration of Asian nationals living in Hungary.
#demography #Hungary #migration #Asia #population
#demography #Hungary #migration #Asia #population
Sweden's unprecedented fertility decline is driven by the missing first child. Not fewer second kids. Not fewer third kids. Not fewer couples. The drop is entirely in first births, as childless people simply aren't taking the step to parenthood.
#demography #Sweden
framtidmedbarn.se/wp-content/u...
#demography #Sweden
framtidmedbarn.se/wp-content/u...
August 28, 2026 at 9:46 AM
Sweden's unprecedented fertility decline is driven by the missing first child. Not fewer second kids. Not fewer third kids. Not fewer couples. The drop is entirely in first births, as childless people simply aren't taking the step to parenthood.
#demography #Sweden
framtidmedbarn.se/wp-content/u...
#demography #Sweden
framtidmedbarn.se/wp-content/u...
Canada’s fertility decline may not simply be about people having fewer children than they want. Fertility intentions themselves are falling.Around half of young women now enter their reproductive years intending to remain childless.
#demography #fertility
www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...
#demography #fertility
www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...
August 26, 2026 at 6:47 AM
Canada’s fertility decline may not simply be about people having fewer children than they want. Fertility intentions themselves are falling.Around half of young women now enter their reproductive years intending to remain childless.
#demography #fertility
www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...
#demography #fertility
www.demographic-research.org/articles/vol...
Childlessness among Nordic men has generally increased over recent decades. Finland saw the sharpest rise, from 19% in 1990 to almost 30% in 2024, while Norway reached 27%. Nearly one in three Finnish men is now childless at age 45.
#demography #fertlity
norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/di...
#demography #fertlity
norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/di...
August 12, 2026 at 8:00 AM
Childlessness among Nordic men has generally increased over recent decades. Finland saw the sharpest rise, from 19% in 1990 to almost 30% in 2024, while Norway reached 27%. Nearly one in three Finnish men is now childless at age 45.
#demography #fertlity
norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/di...
#demography #fertlity
norden.diva-portal.org/smash/get/di...
Hungary’s population is ageing, yet the number of deaths fell to a historic low in 2025. This may reflect the pandemic’s mortality displacement (harvesting) effect and/or rising life expectancy.
#demography #Hungary
#demography #Hungary
August 5, 2026 at 12:03 PM
Hungary’s population is ageing, yet the number of deaths fell to a historic low in 2025. This may reflect the pandemic’s mortality displacement (harvesting) effect and/or rising life expectancy.
#demography #Hungary
#demography #Hungary
The freefall in Hungary’s fertility rate may have ended, or at least paused at a very low level. Still, the number of births has fallen by one quarter over the past five years.
#demography #fertility #Hungary
#demography #fertility #Hungary
August 4, 2026 at 10:27 PM
The freefall in Hungary’s fertility rate may have ended, or at least paused at a very low level. Still, the number of births has fallen by one quarter over the past five years.
#demography #fertility #Hungary
#demography #fertility #Hungary
TFR can fluctuate with birth timing, but completed cohort fertility shows a clearer trend: over recent decades, the number of children women have by age 45 has declined in most countries, except the United States and Sweden.
Excellent paper: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
#demography #fertility #US
Excellent paper: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
#demography #fertility #US
July 29, 2026 at 8:20 PM
TFR can fluctuate with birth timing, but completed cohort fertility shows a clearer trend: over recent decades, the number of children women have by age 45 has declined in most countries, except the United States and Sweden.
Excellent paper: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
#demography #fertility #US
Excellent paper: www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
#demography #fertility #US
Fertility is in freefall. More than 2 billion people now live in countries with a TFR below 1.3—a level that implies rapid population decline without substantial immigration. The fall is deeper, broader and likely more persistent than previously expected.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
July 24, 2026 at 10:05 PM
Fertility is in freefall. More than 2 billion people now live in countries with a TFR below 1.3—a level that implies rapid population decline without substantial immigration. The fall is deeper, broader and likely more persistent than previously expected.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Hong Kong's mean ideal family size fell from 1.8 to 1.47 over 25 years. The two-child ideal was replaced first by one-child ideals, then zero-child ideals.
#demography #fertility
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
#demography #fertility
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
July 22, 2026 at 6:44 AM
Hong Kong's mean ideal family size fell from 1.8 to 1.47 over 25 years. The two-child ideal was replaced first by one-child ideals, then zero-child ideals.
#demography #fertility
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
#demography #fertility
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Hungary experienced the second-largest population decline in the EU in 2024.
Strikingly, all five countries with the sharpest population losses were in Central and Eastern Europe, highlighting the region’s deepening demographic challenges.
More on this: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Strikingly, all five countries with the sharpest population losses were in Central and Eastern Europe, highlighting the region’s deepening demographic challenges.
More on this: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
July 18, 2026 at 9:37 PM
Hungary experienced the second-largest population decline in the EU in 2024.
Strikingly, all five countries with the sharpest population losses were in Central and Eastern Europe, highlighting the region’s deepening demographic challenges.
More on this: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Strikingly, all five countries with the sharpest population losses were in Central and Eastern Europe, highlighting the region’s deepening demographic challenges.
More on this: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Fertility policy can work — at least in the short term.
Hungary’s 2019 pronatalist package appears to have accelerated the decline in birth intervals, reinforcing a trend that had already begun with the post-crisis economic recovery.
#demography #fertility #birth #Hungary
Hungary’s 2019 pronatalist package appears to have accelerated the decline in birth intervals, reinforcing a trend that had already begun with the post-crisis economic recovery.
#demography #fertility #birth #Hungary
July 9, 2026 at 8:28 AM
Fertility policy can work — at least in the short term.
Hungary’s 2019 pronatalist package appears to have accelerated the decline in birth intervals, reinforcing a trend that had already begun with the post-crisis economic recovery.
#demography #fertility #birth #Hungary
Hungary’s 2019 pronatalist package appears to have accelerated the decline in birth intervals, reinforcing a trend that had already begun with the post-crisis economic recovery.
#demography #fertility #birth #Hungary
The leading cause of death among young men isn't cancer or infectious disease—it's injury.
Road traffic crashes, violence, and self-harm account for the largest share of deaths among males aged 15–24 across every income group.
#demography
desapublications.un.org/publications...
Road traffic crashes, violence, and self-harm account for the largest share of deaths among males aged 15–24 across every income group.
#demography
desapublications.un.org/publications...
June 26, 2026 at 8:55 PM
The leading cause of death among young men isn't cancer or infectious disease—it's injury.
Road traffic crashes, violence, and self-harm account for the largest share of deaths among males aged 15–24 across every income group.
#demography
desapublications.un.org/publications...
Road traffic crashes, violence, and self-harm account for the largest share of deaths among males aged 15–24 across every income group.
#demography
desapublications.un.org/publications...
The total fertility rate dropped to 1.31 in the 12 months ending in May 2026 in Hungary, while the number of live births fell by 4.4% compared with the previous year.
#demography #fertility #Hungary
#demography #fertility #Hungary
June 26, 2026 at 8:18 PM
The total fertility rate dropped to 1.31 in the 12 months ending in May 2026 in Hungary, while the number of live births fell by 4.4% compared with the previous year.
#demography #fertility #Hungary
#demography #fertility #Hungary
Most EU countries are expected to shrink by 2050, with the steepest declines in the East and South. Continued population growth is projected in only a handful of countries, including Luxembourg, Ireland, Sweden, the Netherlands and France.
#demography #Poland #France
op.europa.eu/en/publicati...
#demography #Poland #France
op.europa.eu/en/publicati...
June 20, 2026 at 2:02 PM
Most EU countries are expected to shrink by 2050, with the steepest declines in the East and South. Continued population growth is projected in only a handful of countries, including Luxembourg, Ireland, Sweden, the Netherlands and France.
#demography #Poland #France
op.europa.eu/en/publicati...
#demography #Poland #France
op.europa.eu/en/publicati...
Korea's birthrate rose at its fastest pace on record in the first quarter of 2026, with the number of babies born jumping nearly 15 percent from a year earlier.
www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/koreas...
www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/koreas...
Korea's birthrate rises at fastest pace on record in Q1
Korea's birthrate rose at its fastest pace on record in the first quarter of 2026, with the number of babies born jumping nearly 15 percent from a year earlier, government data showed on Wednesday.
www.koreajoongangdaily.com
June 19, 2026 at 10:37 PM
Korea's birthrate rose at its fastest pace on record in the first quarter of 2026, with the number of babies born jumping nearly 15 percent from a year earlier.
www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/koreas...
www.koreajoongangdaily.com/korea/koreas...
Hungary’s fertility trend broadly follows European patterns, but its mortality remains much higher than that of its peers. This deserves more attention: beyond the individual gains of longer, healthier lives, improvements in mortality could also significantly moderate population loss.
#demography
#demography
June 17, 2026 at 8:01 PM
Hungary’s fertility trend broadly follows European patterns, but its mortality remains much higher than that of its peers. This deserves more attention: beyond the individual gains of longer, healthier lives, improvements in mortality could also significantly moderate population loss.
#demography
#demography
Childlessness is no longer marginal. Among women born around 1980, roughly 1 in 4 are childless by their mid-40s in Spain, Greece and Switzerland. At the other end, the share is around 10% or lower in Romania, Portugal, Iceland and Bulgaria.
#demography #Fertility #Hungary #Poland #Spain
#demography #Fertility #Hungary #Poland #Spain
June 15, 2026 at 9:30 PM
Childlessness is no longer marginal. Among women born around 1980, roughly 1 in 4 are childless by their mid-40s in Spain, Greece and Switzerland. At the other end, the share is around 10% or lower in Romania, Portugal, Iceland and Bulgaria.
#demography #Fertility #Hungary #Poland #Spain
#demography #Fertility #Hungary #Poland #Spain
Hungarian women born in 1979 had fewer than 1.6 children by age 45. Among cohorts born roughly 15 years earlier, the figure was still around 2.
#demoraphy #fertility #Hungary
#demoraphy #fertility #Hungary
June 14, 2026 at 8:07 PM
Hungarian women born in 1979 had fewer than 1.6 children by age 45. Among cohorts born roughly 15 years earlier, the figure was still around 2.
#demoraphy #fertility #Hungary
#demoraphy #fertility #Hungary
In some regions of Hungary, induced abortions in 2024 reached almost 50% of the number of live births -roughly one abortion for every two babies born.
#demography #fertility #Hungary
#demography #fertility #Hungary
June 12, 2026 at 6:29 AM
In some regions of Hungary, induced abortions in 2024 reached almost 50% of the number of live births -roughly one abortion for every two babies born.
#demography #fertility #Hungary
#demography #fertility #Hungary
Demography matters. It was a pleasure to discuss the key demographic trends shaping Hungary and Central and Eastern Europe with Csaba László on Jazzy Radio. (In Hungarian.)
#demography #population #Hungary
jazzy.hu/adasok/magya...
#demography #population #Hungary
jazzy.hu/adasok/magya...
June 10, 2026 at 8:02 AM
Demography matters. It was a pleasure to discuss the key demographic trends shaping Hungary and Central and Eastern Europe with Csaba László on Jazzy Radio. (In Hungarian.)
#demography #population #Hungary
jazzy.hu/adasok/magya...
#demography #population #Hungary
jazzy.hu/adasok/magya...
Abortions in Hungary fell by one-fifth in Jan–Apr 2026. Abortions per 100 live births also dropped markedly, meaning a smaller share of pregnancies ended in induced abortion. But this coincided with a sharp decline in fertility and births, pointing to fewer pregnancies overall—not more babies.
June 9, 2026 at 3:29 PM
Abortions in Hungary fell by one-fifth in Jan–Apr 2026. Abortions per 100 live births also dropped markedly, meaning a smaller share of pregnancies ended in induced abortion. But this coincided with a sharp decline in fertility and births, pointing to fewer pregnancies overall—not more babies.