Wendy Edelberg
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social
Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at Brookings. Previously, director of The Hamilton Project at Brookings and before that chief economist of CBO.
I don’t get Warsh on oil. If oil prices rise, prices of oil-intensive goods should rise too. The Fed should look through that relative-price shift & accept resulting fall in real wages. If it tries to prevent the price adjustment, it has to weaken demand. Warsh seems to want one without the other.
September 16, 2026 at 7:17 PM
I don’t get Warsh on oil. If oil prices rise, prices of oil-intensive goods should rise too. The Fed should look through that relative-price shift & accept resulting fall in real wages. If it tries to prevent the price adjustment, it has to weaken demand. Warsh seems to want one without the other.
Just said on @cnbc.com I think Fed *should* hike at next meeting. That's for a few reasons, including maintaining Fed credibility. What I didn't say was: I don't think Fed *will* hike at the next meeting. (Also said strong Aug emp growth looks out of sync with other labor market indicators.)
September 4, 2026 at 12:58 PM
Just said on @cnbc.com I think Fed *should* hike at next meeting. That's for a few reasons, including maintaining Fed credibility. What I didn't say was: I don't think Fed *will* hike at the next meeting. (Also said strong Aug emp growth looks out of sync with other labor market indicators.)
If the employment story in payroll survey is the right one, where are all these workers coming from? And, I don't see evidence of a much stronger labor market than last in year in other indicators: wages, the quit rate, participation, the work work...All in all, the HH survey makes more sense to me.
Puzzle continues: Payroll Survey & Household Survey show different labor markets. Payroll: emp growth has soared since last year. HH: emp is *down* (changes in population controls complicate comparisons to 2025). Strong emp didn't lower UR; it fell because emp shrank by less than labor force did.
July 2, 2026 at 1:38 PM
If the employment story in payroll survey is the right one, where are all these workers coming from? And, I don't see evidence of a much stronger labor market than last in year in other indicators: wages, the quit rate, participation, the work work...All in all, the HH survey makes more sense to me.
Puzzle continues: Payroll Survey & Household Survey show different labor markets. Payroll: emp growth has soared since last year. HH: emp is *down* (changes in population controls complicate comparisons to 2025). Strong emp didn't lower UR; it fell because emp shrank by less than labor force did.
July 2, 2026 at 1:33 PM
Puzzle continues: Payroll Survey & Household Survey show different labor markets. Payroll: emp growth has soared since last year. HH: emp is *down* (changes in population controls complicate comparisons to 2025). Strong emp didn't lower UR; it fell because emp shrank by less than labor force did.
Core goods prices are up 1.1% from last May. Maybe that doesn't sound big - and it isn't compared to COVID days - but these are prices that *fall* frequently in normal times. Tariffs aren't done pushing up goods prices. And now energy prices are making manufacturing and delivery more expensive.
June 10, 2026 at 3:26 PM
Core goods prices are up 1.1% from last May. Maybe that doesn't sound big - and it isn't compared to COVID days - but these are prices that *fall* frequently in normal times. Tariffs aren't done pushing up goods prices. And now energy prices are making manufacturing and delivery more expensive.
Emp growth is much stronger in payroll survey than household survey. Emp since Jan has *fallen* in HH survey. Sure, surveys can move apart, like when HH survey didn't reflect immigration surge. But, the sharp increase in gap is hard to understand. Since 1994, only 4 yrs had bigger widening Jan-May.
June 5, 2026 at 2:00 PM
Emp growth is much stronger in payroll survey than household survey. Emp since Jan has *fallen* in HH survey. Sure, surveys can move apart, like when HH survey didn't reflect immigration surge. But, the sharp increase in gap is hard to understand. Since 1994, only 4 yrs had bigger widening Jan-May.
I’ve pondered how (not if) Trump will impose his will on the Fed if Warsh doesn’t want to or can’t cut rates. Maybe part of Trump’s plan is to keep the reno investigation & broaden beyond Powell just to keep DoJ folks hanging around with the threat of criminal charges against someone at the Fed?
April 21, 2026 at 2:52 PM
I’ve pondered how (not if) Trump will impose his will on the Fed if Warsh doesn’t want to or can’t cut rates. Maybe part of Trump’s plan is to keep the reno investigation & broaden beyond Powell just to keep DoJ folks hanging around with the threat of criminal charges against someone at the Fed?
I think the most important number from the BEA this morning was goods inflation. Excluding gasoline, goods prices rose 0.7% from January to February. That is a very large price increase for a category that in normal times is often negative. Tariffs are nowhere near done pushing up prices.
April 9, 2026 at 1:03 PM
I think the most important number from the BEA this morning was goods inflation. Excluding gasoline, goods prices rose 0.7% from January to February. That is a very large price increase for a category that in normal times is often negative. Tariffs are nowhere near done pushing up prices.
BLS incorporated new population composition resulting in lower LFPR & EPOP. Employment gains averaged 5k a month over last 3 months even as UR remained low & stable, remarkably consistent with breakevens from co-authors & me. tinyurl.com/3mzddwhx
PSA: DON'T USE CPS FOR FOREIGN & NATIVE BORN LEVELS.
PSA: DON'T USE CPS FOR FOREIGN & NATIVE BORN LEVELS.
March 6, 2026 at 4:54 PM
BLS incorporated new population composition resulting in lower LFPR & EPOP. Employment gains averaged 5k a month over last 3 months even as UR remained low & stable, remarkably consistent with breakevens from co-authors & me. tinyurl.com/3mzddwhx
PSA: DON'T USE CPS FOR FOREIGN & NATIVE BORN LEVELS.
PSA: DON'T USE CPS FOR FOREIGN & NATIVE BORN LEVELS.
Perhaps the occasion of this jobs report is a good time to reup my NYT op-ed:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o...
Opinion | We’re Seeing What a No-Immigration Economy Looks Like
www.nytimes.com
March 6, 2026 at 2:46 PM
Perhaps the occasion of this jobs report is a good time to reup my NYT op-ed:
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/o...
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
These guys do great work and are on the lower end of consensus too
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social @stanveuger.bsky.social
www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social @stanveuger.bsky.social
www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Macroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 update | Brookings
Wendy Edelberg, Stan Veuger, and Tara Watson review immigration flow trends in 2025 and 2026, and analyze their macroeconomic implications.
www.brookings.edu
February 11, 2026 at 2:28 PM
These guys do great work and are on the lower end of consensus too
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social @stanveuger.bsky.social
www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
@wendyedelberg.bsky.social @stanveuger.bsky.social
www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
I am confused by the argument AI means the Fed should cut rates. But, I guess the idea is AI will mean a whole lot of underused resources (eg labor) so the Fed will need to stimulate demand to convince employers to hire & invest. That’s a depressing world. And rate cuts won’t work in the long run.
February 10, 2026 at 9:55 PM
I am confused by the argument AI means the Fed should cut rates. But, I guess the idea is AI will mean a whole lot of underused resources (eg labor) so the Fed will need to stimulate demand to convince employers to hire & invest. That’s a depressing world. And rate cuts won’t work in the long run.
Join us in a few minutes for what I know will be an incredible event on supply-side factors and inflation:
www.brookings.edu/events/suppl... We have an amazing line up: Peter Orszag, Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson, 3 newly published papers and their authors, and more.
www.brookings.edu/events/suppl... We have an amazing line up: Peter Orszag, Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson, 3 newly published papers and their authors, and more.
Supply-side factors and inflation: What have we learned? | Brookings
On February 6, Brookings will convene an event to examine the relationship between supply-side factors and inflation.
www.brookings.edu
February 6, 2026 at 2:08 PM
Join us in a few minutes for what I know will be an incredible event on supply-side factors and inflation:
www.brookings.edu/events/suppl... We have an amazing line up: Peter Orszag, Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson, 3 newly published papers and their authors, and more.
www.brookings.edu/events/suppl... We have an amazing line up: Peter Orszag, Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson, 3 newly published papers and their authors, and more.
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
I'll be talking with Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at 12 noon ET at this @brookings.edu event today.
Supply-side factors and inflation: What have we learned? www.brookings.edu/events/suppl.... In-person (registration required) & livestreamed.
Supply-side factors and inflation: What have we learned? www.brookings.edu/events/suppl.... In-person (registration required) & livestreamed.
Supply-side factors and inflation: What have we learned? | Brookings
On February 6, Brookings will convene an event to examine the relationship between supply-side factors and inflation.
www.brookings.edu
February 6, 2026 at 11:59 AM
I'll be talking with Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at 12 noon ET at this @brookings.edu event today.
Supply-side factors and inflation: What have we learned? www.brookings.edu/events/suppl.... In-person (registration required) & livestreamed.
Supply-side factors and inflation: What have we learned? www.brookings.edu/events/suppl.... In-person (registration required) & livestreamed.
Let’s stop with the breathlessness about bond yields. Bond markets looked at events over the weekend and said: We demand an additional 5 basis points!
The confidence that everything will be okay is just mystifying.
The confidence that everything will be okay is just mystifying.
January 20, 2026 at 3:16 PM
Let’s stop with the breathlessness about bond yields. Bond markets looked at events over the weekend and said: We demand an additional 5 basis points!
The confidence that everything will be okay is just mystifying.
The confidence that everything will be okay is just mystifying.
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
I am not sure how to wrap my head around this, but yesterday @jimmykimmel.com referenced the net immigration numbers that @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social and I just published. See the report here: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Trump Wants Greenland Whether They Like it Or Not, Lindsey Graham Bombshell & FCC Chair Testifies
Today was the first day you could register to get tickets to the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, Trump is on a new crusade to take over Greenland, Marco Rubio has been put in charge of coming up with a plan to purchase it, we are operating at peak hypocrisy right now as we violently stifle protests while also warning Iran not to violently stifle protests, Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin isn’t sure if he is for or against regime change there, we got a new photograph of Trump giving the finger to a Ford worker who called him a “pedophile protector,” Trump fell asleep again during a press conference, Lindsey Graham gave sworn testimony after the 2020 election saying Trump lost even though he was on Fox News saying just the opposite, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr testified in front of the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee today, and PBS has some news for people who think they're going off the air. SUBSCRIBE to get the latest #Kimmel: http://bit.ly/JKLSubscribe Follow Jimmy Kimmel on Instagram: https://bit.ly/KimmelInstagram Follow Jimmy Kimmel Live on Instagram: http://bit.ly/JKLInstagram Follow Jimmy Kimmel Live on TikTok: https://bit.ly/JKLTikTok Like Jimmy Kimmel on Facebook: http://bit.ly/KimmelFB Like Jimmy Kimmel Live on Facebook: http://bit.ly/JKLFacebook Visit the Jimmy Kimmel Live Website : http://bit.ly/JKLWebsite About Jimmy Kimmel Live: Jimmy Kimmel serves as host and executive producer of Emmy® nominated “Jimmy Kimmel Live,” ABC’s late-night talk show. “Jimmy Kimmel Live” is well known for its viral video successes, with over 16 billion views and more than 19 million subscribers on the show’s YouTube channel. Some of Kimmel’s most popular comedy bits include Celebrities Read Mean Tweets, Lie Witness News, Halloween Candy YouTube Challenge, Jimmy and Cousin Sal pranking Aunt Chippy and music stars like Rihanna and Dua Lipa surprising Jimmy in the middle of the night.
nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
January 15, 2026 at 7:37 PM
I am not sure how to wrap my head around this, but yesterday @jimmykimmel.com referenced the net immigration numbers that @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social and I just published. See the report here: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
I am not sure how to wrap my head around this, but yesterday @jimmykimmel.com referenced the net immigration numbers that @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social and I just published. See the report here: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Trump Wants Greenland Whether They Like it Or Not, Lindsey Graham Bombshell & FCC Chair Testifies
Today was the first day you could register to get tickets to the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, Trump is on a new crusade to take over Greenland, Marco Rubio has been put in charge of coming up with a plan to purchase it, we are operating at peak hypocrisy right now as we violently stifle protests while also warning Iran not to violently stifle protests, Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin isn’t sure if he is for or against regime change there, we got a new photograph of Trump giving the finger to a Ford worker who called him a “pedophile protector,” Trump fell asleep again during a press conference, Lindsey Graham gave sworn testimony after the 2020 election saying Trump lost even though he was on Fox News saying just the opposite, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr testified in front of the House Energy and Commerce subcommittee today, and PBS has some news for people who think they're going off the air. SUBSCRIBE to get the latest #Kimmel: http://bit.ly/JKLSubscribe Follow Jimmy Kimmel on Instagram: https://bit.ly/KimmelInstagram Follow Jimmy Kimmel Live on Instagram: http://bit.ly/JKLInstagram Follow Jimmy Kimmel Live on TikTok: https://bit.ly/JKLTikTok Like Jimmy Kimmel on Facebook: http://bit.ly/KimmelFB Like Jimmy Kimmel Live on Facebook: http://bit.ly/JKLFacebook Visit the Jimmy Kimmel Live Website : http://bit.ly/JKLWebsite About Jimmy Kimmel Live: Jimmy Kimmel serves as host and executive producer of Emmy® nominated “Jimmy Kimmel Live,” ABC’s late-night talk show. “Jimmy Kimmel Live” is well known for its viral video successes, with over 16 billion views and more than 19 million subscribers on the show’s YouTube channel. Some of Kimmel’s most popular comedy bits include Celebrities Read Mean Tweets, Lie Witness News, Halloween Candy YouTube Challenge, Jimmy and Cousin Sal pranking Aunt Chippy and music stars like Rihanna and Dua Lipa surprising Jimmy in the middle of the night.
nam10.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
January 15, 2026 at 7:37 PM
I am not sure how to wrap my head around this, but yesterday @jimmykimmel.com referenced the net immigration numbers that @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social and I just published. See the report here: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
Check out this great analysis from @wendyedelberg.bsky.social @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social on the macroeconomic impacts of reduced immigration. www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Macroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 update | Brookings
Wendy Edelberg, Stan Veuger, and Tara Watson review immigration flow trends in 2025 and 2026, and analyze their macroeconomic implications.
www.brookings.edu
January 15, 2026 at 3:28 PM
Check out this great analysis from @wendyedelberg.bsky.social @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social on the macroeconomic impacts of reduced immigration. www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
Net US immigration was zero or slightly negative last year, in important new estimates by @stanveuger.bsky.social et al.
The loss of labor cut GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage points.
The loss of labor cut GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage points.
Macroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 update | Brookings
Wendy Edelberg, Stan Veuger, and Tara Watson review immigration flow trends in 2025 and 2026, and analyze their macroeconomic implications.
www.brookings.edu
January 14, 2026 at 12:10 PM
Net US immigration was zero or slightly negative last year, in important new estimates by @stanveuger.bsky.social et al.
The loss of labor cut GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage points.
The loss of labor cut GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage points.
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
Check out the great panel on immigration policy at @brookings.edu. Moderated by @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, with @davidjbier.bsky.social, @wendyedelberg.bsky.social, @kdpindc.bsky.social and yours truly. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xf9T... (After the convo with Rep. Salazar.)
Assessing US immigration policy in the second Trump administration
YouTube video by Brookings Institution
www.youtube.com
January 13, 2026 at 10:07 PM
Check out the great panel on immigration policy at @brookings.edu. Moderated by @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, with @davidjbier.bsky.social, @wendyedelberg.bsky.social, @kdpindc.bsky.social and yours truly. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xf9T... (After the convo with Rep. Salazar.)
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
New report @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social, and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social examines the economic impact of Trump-era immigration policies. After 2025’s net negative migration, 2026 is projected to remain low or negative, weighing on growth. Read here: shorturl.at/q1jOM
January 13, 2026 at 5:27 PM
New report @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, @stanveuger.bsky.social, and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social examines the economic impact of Trump-era immigration policies. After 2025’s net negative migration, 2026 is projected to remain low or negative, weighing on growth. Read here: shorturl.at/q1jOM
With @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, we have an update on our near-term immigration analysis under Trump. Here's our range of likely outcomes for breakeven employment. Could be negative **this year**.
Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
January 13, 2026 at 5:41 PM
With @stanveuger.bsky.social and @taraelizwatson.bsky.social, we have an update on our near-term immigration analysis under Trump. Here's our range of likely outcomes for breakeven employment. Could be negative **this year**.
Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Full piece: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
The full article is here: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Macroeconomic Implications of Immigration Flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 Update | Brookings
Wendy Edelberg, Stan Veuger, and Tara Watson review immigration flow trends in 2025 and 2026, and analyze their macroeconomic implications.
www.brookings.edu
January 13, 2026 at 2:59 PM
The full article is here: www.brookings.edu/articles/mac...
Reposted by Wendy Edelberg
I have a new report out with @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social on the macro implications of US immigration flows. Net migration was down dramatically in 2025 and will remain low/negative in 2026, leading to much lower monthly employment growth and slower GDP growth.
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social on the macro implications of US immigration flows. Net migration was down dramatically in 2025 and will remain low/negative in 2026, leading to much lower monthly employment growth and slower GDP growth.
January 13, 2026 at 2:59 PM
I have a new report out with @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social on the macro implications of US immigration flows. Net migration was down dramatically in 2025 and will remain low/negative in 2026, leading to much lower monthly employment growth and slower GDP growth.
@taraelizwatson.bsky.social on the macro implications of US immigration flows. Net migration was down dramatically in 2025 and will remain low/negative in 2026, leading to much lower monthly employment growth and slower GDP growth.