Ash Oro
@ashoro.co.uk
Ex Merchant Navy officer and now Merchant Navy teacher and creator of online training courses.
Author of the Series "The Hormuz Crisis" - Volume 1 The Illusion of Open Seas e-book on Amazon now.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ash-oro
https://ashoro.co.uk/
Author of the Series "The Hormuz Crisis" - Volume 1 The Illusion of Open Seas e-book on Amazon now.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ash-oro
https://ashoro.co.uk/
A memorial, like a gravestone, tends to only carry your name when you are dead.
So.
If Trump wants his name on the building - an act of Congress to end his life (presumably as punishment for his many crimes via capital means) should be a condition should it not?
So.
If Trump wants his name on the building - an act of Congress to end his life (presumably as punishment for his many crimes via capital means) should be a condition should it not?
September 17, 2026 at 9:18 AM
A memorial, like a gravestone, tends to only carry your name when you are dead.
So.
If Trump wants his name on the building - an act of Congress to end his life (presumably as punishment for his many crimes via capital means) should be a condition should it not?
So.
If Trump wants his name on the building - an act of Congress to end his life (presumably as punishment for his many crimes via capital means) should be a condition should it not?
22/22
Over the coming days we need to watch two things.
Whether selective access becomes durable at Bab al-Mandeb, and whether the Saudi-Oman workaround becomes a sustained trade pattern.
Both tell us more than any single transit about what the maritime system is becoming.
#Shipping #Hormuz
Over the coming days we need to watch two things.
Whether selective access becomes durable at Bab al-Mandeb, and whether the Saudi-Oman workaround becomes a sustained trade pattern.
Both tell us more than any single transit about what the maritime system is becoming.
#Shipping #Hormuz
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
21/22
What we are watching now is the reverse process.
As that confidence degrades, navies, armed groups, insurers and governments become visible again because every voyage increasingly depends upon who can protect it, who will tolerate it and who is prepared to pay the new cost.
What we are watching now is the reverse process.
As that confidence degrades, navies, armed groups, insurers and governments become visible again because every voyage increasingly depends upon who can protect it, who will tolerate it and who is prepared to pay the new cost.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
21/22
What we are watching now is the reverse process.
As that confidence degrades, navies, armed groups, insurers and governments become visible again because every voyage increasingly depends upon who can protect it, who will tolerate it and who is prepared to pay the new cost.
What we are watching now is the reverse process.
As that confidence degrades, navies, armed groups, insurers and governments become visible again because every voyage increasingly depends upon who can protect it, who will tolerate it and who is prepared to pay the new cost.
20/22
This is why I keep returning to “The Illusion of Open Seas”.
Globalisation did not remove maritime power.
It made its protection less visible because prosperity, law, insurance and shared interest made commercial passage routine enough that we largely stopped noticing the structure.
This is why I keep returning to “The Illusion of Open Seas”.
Globalisation did not remove maritime power.
It made its protection less visible because prosperity, law, insurance and shared interest made commercial passage routine enough that we largely stopped noticing the structure.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
20/22
This is why I keep returning to “The Illusion of Open Seas”.
Globalisation did not remove maritime power.
It made its protection less visible because prosperity, law, insurance and shared interest made commercial passage routine enough that we largely stopped noticing the structure.
This is why I keep returning to “The Illusion of Open Seas”.
Globalisation did not remove maritime power.
It made its protection less visible because prosperity, law, insurance and shared interest made commercial passage routine enough that we largely stopped noticing the structure.
19/22
That distinction is why falling oil prices should not be mistaken for strategic recovery.
The market is reacting rationally to more Saudi barrels THEORETICALLY becoming available.
The maritime system producing those barrels has actually become more dependent on managed access.
That distinction is why falling oil prices should not be mistaken for strategic recovery.
The market is reacting rationally to more Saudi barrels THEORETICALLY becoming available.
The maritime system producing those barrels has actually become more dependent on managed access.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
19/22
That distinction is why falling oil prices should not be mistaken for strategic recovery.
The market is reacting rationally to more Saudi barrels THEORETICALLY becoming available.
The maritime system producing those barrels has actually become more dependent on managed access.
That distinction is why falling oil prices should not be mistaken for strategic recovery.
The market is reacting rationally to more Saudi barrels THEORETICALLY becoming available.
The maritime system producing those barrels has actually become more dependent on managed access.
18/22
The US can suppress threats and protect selected transits.
What military presence alone cannot recreate is the old commercial assumption that the next ordinary vessel, under an ordinary flag and carrying an ordinary cargo, can make the same voyage without exceptional arrangements.
The US can suppress threats and protect selected transits.
What military presence alone cannot recreate is the old commercial assumption that the next ordinary vessel, under an ordinary flag and carrying an ordinary cargo, can make the same voyage without exceptional arrangements.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
18/22
The US can suppress threats and protect selected transits.
What military presence alone cannot recreate is the old commercial assumption that the next ordinary vessel, under an ordinary flag and carrying an ordinary cargo, can make the same voyage without exceptional arrangements.
The US can suppress threats and protect selected transits.
What military presence alone cannot recreate is the old commercial assumption that the next ordinary vessel, under an ordinary flag and carrying an ordinary cargo, can make the same voyage without exceptional arrangements.
17/22
We have been discussing that dependency for seven months.
Protecting a route through constrained waters does not restore normal navigation if missiles, drones, mines, small craft or misidentification can still threaten the merchant ships expected to use it in practice now too.
We have been discussing that dependency for seven months.
Protecting a route through constrained waters does not restore normal navigation if missiles, drones, mines, small craft or misidentification can still threaten the merchant ships expected to use it in practice now too.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
17/22
We have been discussing that dependency for seven months.
Protecting a route through constrained waters does not restore normal navigation if missiles, drones, mines, small craft or misidentification can still threaten the merchant ships expected to use it in practice now too.
We have been discussing that dependency for seven months.
Protecting a route through constrained waters does not restore normal navigation if missiles, drones, mines, small craft or misidentification can still threaten the merchant ships expected to use it in practice now too.
16/22
Most importantly, the Saudi workaround still depends upon Hormuz remaining usable.
That relies heavily on US naval patrols, missile-defence warships, aircraft and the wider defensive umbrella CENTCOM has maintained for merchant transits since May.
It is not normal trade yet.
Most importantly, the Saudi workaround still depends upon Hormuz remaining usable.
That relies heavily on US naval patrols, missile-defence warships, aircraft and the wider defensive umbrella CENTCOM has maintained for merchant transits since May.
It is not normal trade yet.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
16/22
Most importantly, the Saudi workaround still depends upon Hormuz remaining usable.
That relies heavily on US naval patrols, missile-defence warships, aircraft and the wider defensive umbrella CENTCOM has maintained for merchant transits since May.
It is not normal trade yet.
Most importantly, the Saudi workaround still depends upon Hormuz remaining usable.
That relies heavily on US naval patrols, missile-defence warships, aircraft and the wider defensive umbrella CENTCOM has maintained for merchant transits since May.
It is not normal trade yet.
15/22
But adaptation is not recovery.
Every extra transfer, shuttle voyage, insurance decision and security dependency is another point where something can fail, cost more or take longer, even while the headline export number begins to look healthier to the market once again too.
But adaptation is not recovery.
Every extra transfer, shuttle voyage, insurance decision and security dependency is another point where something can fail, cost more or take longer, even while the headline export number begins to look healthier to the market once again too.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
15/22
But adaptation is not recovery.
Every extra transfer, shuttle voyage, insurance decision and security dependency is another point where something can fail, cost more or take longer, even while the headline export number begins to look healthier to the market once again too.
But adaptation is not recovery.
Every extra transfer, shuttle voyage, insurance decision and security dependency is another point where something can fail, cost more or take longer, even while the headline export number begins to look healthier to the market once again too.
14/22
That is a clever message, and the oil-price response shows why markets care about adaptability as much as damage.
Shipping rarely waits for perfect conditions; it reroutes, tranships, changes contracts, reallocates tonnage and builds temporary systems around whatever still works now.
That is a clever message, and the oil-price response shows why markets care about adaptability as much as damage.
Shipping rarely waits for perfect conditions; it reroutes, tranships, changes contracts, reallocates tonnage and builds temporary systems around whatever still works now.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
14/22
That is a clever message, and the oil-price response shows why markets care about adaptability as much as damage.
Shipping rarely waits for perfect conditions; it reroutes, tranships, changes contracts, reallocates tonnage and builds temporary systems around whatever still works now.
That is a clever message, and the oil-price response shows why markets care about adaptability as much as damage.
Shipping rarely waits for perfect conditions; it reroutes, tranships, changes contracts, reallocates tonnage and builds temporary systems around whatever still works now.
13/22
Operationally, this appears to shift the logistics rather than remove Hormuz.
Saudi barrels loaded inside the Gulf can transit under a protected system, transfer near Sohar, then continue east without every final-delivery tanker entering the Gulf and accepting the same exposure.
Operationally, this appears to shift the logistics rather than remove Hormuz.
Saudi barrels loaded inside the Gulf can transit under a protected system, transfer near Sohar, then continue east without every final-delivery tanker entering the Gulf and accepting the same exposure.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
13/22
Operationally, this appears to shift the logistics rather than remove Hormuz.
Saudi barrels loaded inside the Gulf can transit under a protected system, transfer near Sohar, then continue east without every final-delivery tanker entering the Gulf and accepting the same exposure.
Operationally, this appears to shift the logistics rather than remove Hormuz.
Saudi barrels loaded inside the Gulf can transit under a protected system, transfer near Sohar, then continue east without every final-delivery tanker entering the Gulf and accepting the same exposure.
12/22
This is a real mitigation and it matters. It also does not mean the problem is solved, because Oman is not connected to Saudi Arabia by a new oil pipeline.
Barrels exported from Saudi Gulf terminals still have to reach the Omani side of Hormuz somehow in practice today too.
This is a real mitigation and it matters. It also does not mean the problem is solved, because Oman is not connected to Saudi Arabia by a new oil pipeline.
Barrels exported from Saudi Gulf terminals still have to reach the Omani side of Hormuz somehow in practice today too.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
12/22
This is a real mitigation and it matters. It also does not mean the problem is solved, because Oman is not connected to Saudi Arabia by a new oil pipeline.
Barrels exported from Saudi Gulf terminals still have to reach the Omani side of Hormuz somehow in practice today too.
This is a real mitigation and it matters. It also does not mean the problem is solved, because Oman is not connected to Saudi Arabia by a new oil pipeline.
Barrels exported from Saudi Gulf terminals still have to reach the Omani side of Hormuz somehow in practice today too.
11/22
Saudi Arabia is offering more crude to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Sohar in Oman.
Markets reacted immediately.
Brent fell 2.7% on Wednesday and slipped again early Thursday as fears of an immediate Saudi supply squeeze eased further this morning again.
Saudi Arabia is offering more crude to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Sohar in Oman.
Markets reacted immediately.
Brent fell 2.7% on Wednesday and slipped again early Thursday as fears of an immediate Saudi supply squeeze eased further this morning again.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
11/22
Saudi Arabia is offering more crude to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Sohar in Oman.
Markets reacted immediately.
Brent fell 2.7% on Wednesday and slipped again early Thursday as fears of an immediate Saudi supply squeeze eased further this morning again.
Saudi Arabia is offering more crude to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Sohar in Oman.
Markets reacted immediately.
Brent fell 2.7% on Wednesday and slipped again early Thursday as fears of an immediate Saudi supply squeeze eased further this morning again.
10/22
Now look at Saudi Arabia.
Damage to the East-West Pipeline and disruption at Yanbu weakened the main Saudi route designed to bypass Hormuz, but the response has been characteristically maritime.
Do not wait for the old system to recover. Change the voyage instead in practice
Now look at Saudi Arabia.
Damage to the East-West Pipeline and disruption at Yanbu weakened the main Saudi route designed to bypass Hormuz, but the response has been characteristically maritime.
Do not wait for the old system to recover. Change the voyage instead in practice
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
10/22
Now look at Saudi Arabia.
Damage to the East-West Pipeline and disruption at Yanbu weakened the main Saudi route designed to bypass Hormuz, but the response has been characteristically maritime.
Do not wait for the old system to recover. Change the voyage instead in practice
Now look at Saudi Arabia.
Damage to the East-West Pipeline and disruption at Yanbu weakened the main Saudi route designed to bypass Hormuz, but the response has been characteristically maritime.
Do not wait for the old system to recover. Change the voyage instead in practice
9/22
The legal principle has not disappeared. What is degrading is the practical system beneath it.
Confidence that ordinary merchant ships can exercise those rights without needing a military sponsor, political exemption or negotiated understanding simply to make the voyage viable.
The legal principle has not disappeared. What is degrading is the practical system beneath it.
Confidence that ordinary merchant ships can exercise those rights without needing a military sponsor, political exemption or negotiated understanding simply to make the voyage viable.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
9/22
The legal principle has not disappeared. What is degrading is the practical system beneath it.
Confidence that ordinary merchant ships can exercise those rights without needing a military sponsor, political exemption or negotiated understanding simply to make the voyage viable.
The legal principle has not disappeared. What is degrading is the practical system beneath it.
Confidence that ordinary merchant ships can exercise those rights without needing a military sponsor, political exemption or negotiated understanding simply to make the voyage viable.
8/22
If that position holds in practice, Bab al-Mandeb is not simply “open” or “closed”.
It becomes a waterway where the operational risk of passage depends partly upon political identity, exactly the sort of selective-access environment we have been watching develop at Hormuz too.
If that position holds in practice, Bab al-Mandeb is not simply “open” or “closed”.
It becomes a waterway where the operational risk of passage depends partly upon political identity, exactly the sort of selective-access environment we have been watching develop at Hormuz too.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
8/22
If that position holds in practice, Bab al-Mandeb is not simply “open” or “closed”.
It becomes a waterway where the operational risk of passage depends partly upon political identity, exactly the sort of selective-access environment we have been watching develop at Hormuz too.
If that position holds in practice, Bab al-Mandeb is not simply “open” or “closed”.
It becomes a waterway where the operational risk of passage depends partly upon political identity, exactly the sort of selective-access environment we have been watching develop at Hormuz too.
7/22
The reported US-Houthi talks illustrate this perfectly. Reuters says two sources were told US ships would not be attacked.
One source said Israeli and other commercial ships would also be spared, with Saudi vessels excluded from that assurance.
That distinction matters here.
The reported US-Houthi talks illustrate this perfectly. Reuters says two sources were told US ships would not be attacked.
One source said Israeli and other commercial ships would also be spared, with Saudi vessels excluded from that assurance.
That distinction matters here.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
7/22
The reported US-Houthi talks illustrate this perfectly. Reuters says two sources were told US ships would not be attacked.
One source said Israeli and other commercial ships would also be spared, with Saudi vessels excluded from that assurance.
That distinction matters here.
The reported US-Houthi talks illustrate this perfectly. Reuters says two sources were told US ships would not be attacked.
One source said Israeli and other commercial ships would also be spared, with Saudi vessels excluded from that assurance.
That distinction matters here.
6/22
That is not the same thing as a closed sea lane.
Ships can still move and cargo can still arrive, but the system has changed because access is no longer treated as neutral, routine or equally available; it is increasingly something that has to be politically managed instead.
That is not the same thing as a closed sea lane.
Ships can still move and cargo can still arrive, but the system has changed because access is no longer treated as neutral, routine or equally available; it is increasingly something that has to be politically managed instead.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
6/22
That is not the same thing as a closed sea lane.
Ships can still move and cargo can still arrive, but the system has changed because access is no longer treated as neutral, routine or equally available; it is increasingly something that has to be politically managed instead.
That is not the same thing as a closed sea lane.
Ships can still move and cargo can still arrive, but the system has changed because access is no longer treated as neutral, routine or equally available; it is increasingly something that has to be politically managed instead.
5/22
Once that changes, the safety questions change with it.
Which flag is flying, who owns the ship, what cargo is aboard, who is protecting it, which government accepts the transit, and which armed actor has decided that this particular vessel is not a target today in practice as well?
Once that changes, the safety questions change with it.
Which flag is flying, who owns the ship, what cargo is aboard, who is protecting it, which government accepts the transit, and which armed actor has decided that this particular vessel is not a target today in practice as well?
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
5/22
Once that changes, the safety questions change with it.
Which flag is flying, who owns the ship, what cargo is aboard, who is protecting it, which government accepts the transit, and which armed actor has decided that this particular vessel is not a target today in practice as well?
Once that changes, the safety questions change with it.
Which flag is flying, who owns the ship, what cargo is aboard, who is protecting it, which government accepts the transit, and which armed actor has decided that this particular vessel is not a target today in practice as well?
4/22
Freedom of navigation works commercially because ships normally do not need to negotiate their political acceptability before every voyage.
Owners assess weather, cargo, insurance and normal security risks, but the underlying assumption is that the route itself is available.
Freedom of navigation works commercially because ships normally do not need to negotiate their political acceptability before every voyage.
Owners assess weather, cargo, insurance and normal security risks, but the underlying assumption is that the route itself is available.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
4/22
Freedom of navigation works commercially because ships normally do not need to negotiate their political acceptability before every voyage.
Owners assess weather, cargo, insurance and normal security risks, but the underlying assumption is that the route itself is available.
Freedom of navigation works commercially because ships normally do not need to negotiate their political acceptability before every voyage.
Owners assess weather, cargo, insurance and normal security risks, but the underlying assumption is that the route itself is available.
3/22
That is the systemic degradation I have worried about since the beginning of #TheHormuzCrisis and throughout my book.
The danger was never simply a strait being closed. It was universal commercial access being replaced by conditional, selective and politically managed access in practice.
That is the systemic degradation I have worried about since the beginning of #TheHormuzCrisis and throughout my book.
The danger was never simply a strait being closed. It was universal commercial access being replaced by conditional, selective and politically managed access in practice.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
3/22
That is the systemic degradation I have worried about since the beginning of #TheHormuzCrisis and throughout my book.
The danger was never simply a strait being closed. It was universal commercial access being replaced by conditional, selective and politically managed access in practice.
That is the systemic degradation I have worried about since the beginning of #TheHormuzCrisis and throughout my book.
The danger was never simply a strait being closed. It was universal commercial access being replaced by conditional, selective and politically managed access in practice.
2/22
The important point is not that either waterway has suddenly become “safe”.
Access to both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb is increasingly being shaped by politics, military protection and negotiated exemptions rather than by the old assumption of commercially open passage at all now.
The important point is not that either waterway has suddenly become “safe”.
Access to both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb is increasingly being shaped by politics, military protection and negotiated exemptions rather than by the old assumption of commercially open passage at all now.
September 17, 2026 at 6:11 AM
2/22
The important point is not that either waterway has suddenly become “safe”.
Access to both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb is increasingly being shaped by politics, military protection and negotiated exemptions rather than by the old assumption of commercially open passage at all now.
The important point is not that either waterway has suddenly become “safe”.
Access to both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb is increasingly being shaped by politics, military protection and negotiated exemptions rather than by the old assumption of commercially open passage at all now.
I don’t know whether to be flattered or horrified 🤣🤣
September 17, 2026 at 5:14 AM
I don’t know whether to be flattered or horrified 🤣🤣