Dan Ciuriak
@ciuriakd.bsky.social
Usually found behind a computer, on a bike, or on the courts with a tennis racquet. If none of the above, check the local pub and stop by for a beer.
This has to win the Internet today: "The end of human existence might be bad for financial markets"
How to trade the robot apocalypse
So far the answer seems to be call bullshit and/or lean into the nihilism
Me, 300 free clicks x
- as.ft.com/r/fd415159-4...
So far the answer seems to be call bullshit and/or lean into the nihilism
Me, 300 free clicks x
- as.ft.com/r/fd415159-4...
How should investors position for the robot apocalypse?
The end of human existence might be bad for financial markets
as.ft.com
September 19, 2026 at 10:54 AM
This has to win the Internet today: "The end of human existence might be bad for financial markets"
Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
My Trade Secrets today. The El Niño of 1877-8 killed 50 million; the 1997-8 El Niño just 22,000. Floods and crop failure in Bangladesh in 1974 killed 1.5m; in 1997-8 almost none.
As a new El Niño starts, the qu is why? More productive agriculture; smarter governments; and, critically, free trade.
As a new El Niño starts, the qu is why? More productive agriculture; smarter governments; and, critically, free trade.
How free trade can shield us from El Niño
Climate shocks have progressively become less damaging over time
as.ft.com
September 3, 2026 at 10:41 AM
My Trade Secrets today. The El Niño of 1877-8 killed 50 million; the 1997-8 El Niño just 22,000. Floods and crop failure in Bangladesh in 1974 killed 1.5m; in 1997-8 almost none.
As a new El Niño starts, the qu is why? More productive agriculture; smarter governments; and, critically, free trade.
As a new El Niño starts, the qu is why? More productive agriculture; smarter governments; and, critically, free trade.
"non-working royals"....nice non-work if you can get it.
Breaking News: Prince Harry, his wife, Meghan, and their children are said to be returning to live in Britain after six years in the U.S.
Harry and Meghan Will Move Back to Britain After 6 Years in U.S.
The prince and his wife, whose relations with King Charles and the rest of the royal family have long been strained, will remain non-working royals, according to a person familiar with the decision.
nyti.ms
August 20, 2026 at 2:56 AM
"non-working royals"....nice non-work if you can get it.
Charts from @adamtooze.bsky.social and @pkrugman.bsky.social show striking changes in a time frame that coincides with the "age of machine knowledge capital" in my "ages of capital" parsing of economic history (The Ages of Capital: A Primer - papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....). How about that?
May 23, 2026 at 1:50 PM
Charts from @adamtooze.bsky.social and @pkrugman.bsky.social show striking changes in a time frame that coincides with the "age of machine knowledge capital" in my "ages of capital" parsing of economic history (The Ages of Capital: A Primer - papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....). How about that?
More on surveillance pricing & price discrimination - www.theguardian.com/business/202.... "What thrives in the shadows of asymmetric information but not in the light of symmetric information has more to answer ... than textbook treatment to date has concluded." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
JetBlue sued over claims it uses customers’ personal data to set ticket prices
Lawsuit follows exchange on X in which airline suggested customer should clear cache or book with incognito window
www.theguardian.com
April 24, 2026 at 10:24 AM
More on surveillance pricing & price discrimination - www.theguardian.com/business/202.... "What thrives in the shadows of asymmetric information but not in the light of symmetric information has more to answer ... than textbook treatment to date has concluded." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Hausmann and Velasco walk from equity market valuations of the leading US AI firms to implied US current account balances: How is the world to make the implied payments? It's a good questions! @projectsyndicate.bsky.social prosyn.org/GtWGqWj.
The Real Question About the AI Future
Ricardo Hausmann & Andrés Velasco ask what kind of world economy would vindicate today's market valuations of a handful of US firms.
prosyn.org
April 21, 2026 at 1:26 AM
Hausmann and Velasco walk from equity market valuations of the leading US AI firms to implied US current account balances: How is the world to make the implied payments? It's a good questions! @projectsyndicate.bsky.social prosyn.org/GtWGqWj.
Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
Marathon talks? Compared to what? It took years for Obama to deliver a detailed Iran deal. The Trump admin are packing it in after 20 hours.
(H/T @bgrueskin.bsky.social)
(H/T @bgrueskin.bsky.social)
April 12, 2026 at 4:22 AM
Marathon talks? Compared to what? It took years for Obama to deliver a detailed Iran deal. The Trump admin are packing it in after 20 hours.
(H/T @bgrueskin.bsky.social)
(H/T @bgrueskin.bsky.social)
Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
Right, no, but apart from THAT...
So @jderbyshire.ft.com asked @philgordondc.bsky.social if the Iran war is the US’s Suez moment. He said no, but then pithily and pitilessly sums up how it has been a comprehensive strategic failure. Oof!
www.ft.com/content/0cbc...
www.ft.com/content/0cbc...
April 12, 2026 at 10:47 AM
Right, no, but apart from THAT...
In my blogpost on the USMCA/CUSMA renegotiation (sagecanada.substack.com/p/negotiatin...) I note some disruptions caused by the war including helium for semiconductors. Who knew? Brian Potter walks us through it in his excellent Construction Physics www.construction-physics.com/p/helium-is-...
Helium Is Hard to Replace
The war in Iran, and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has unfortunately made us all familiar with details of the petroleum supply chain that we could formerly happily ignore.
www.construction-physics.com
April 9, 2026 at 4:32 PM
In my blogpost on the USMCA/CUSMA renegotiation (sagecanada.substack.com/p/negotiatin...) I note some disruptions caused by the war including helium for semiconductors. Who knew? Brian Potter walks us through it in his excellent Construction Physics www.construction-physics.com/p/helium-is-...
FAFO - climate change version: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/c...
Heat Wipes Out Western Snowpack, Raising Fears of Drought, Wildfire
www.nytimes.com
April 8, 2026 at 10:52 PM
FAFO - climate change version: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/c...
Happy TACO Tuesday. As a light diversion, I offer some thoughts on the value proposition in play in the USMCA/CUSMA review - including the value of data - against the backdrop of a 2026 remake of Dog Day Afternoon, a film in which things go badly wrong. sagecanada.substack.com/p/negotiatin...
Negotiating CUSMA on a Dog Day Afternoon
Dan Ciuriak is director and principal of Ciuriak Consulting and senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation where he writes on the digital economy.
sagecanada.substack.com
April 8, 2026 at 1:48 AM
Happy TACO Tuesday. As a light diversion, I offer some thoughts on the value proposition in play in the USMCA/CUSMA review - including the value of data - against the backdrop of a 2026 remake of Dog Day Afternoon, a film in which things go badly wrong. sagecanada.substack.com/p/negotiatin...
What is Canada's exposure to a trade war and US tariffs? Smaller than advertised! www.cigionline.org/articles/sma...
Smaller Than Advertised: Canada’s Real Trade Risk with the United States
Canada should attempt to negotiate a new trade deal, using its leverage and protecting its interests to achieve a fair, win-win outcome — a possibility that looms much larger following the U.S. Suprem...
www.cigionline.org
March 26, 2026 at 6:53 PM
What is Canada's exposure to a trade war and US tariffs? Smaller than advertised! www.cigionline.org/articles/sma...
New from me on a very timely topic of price discrimination (algorithmic, personalized pricing) in a digital economy context. www.pymnts.com/cpi-posts/wh....
When the Perfect Is the Enemy of the Good: Price Discrimination, Affordability, Precarity and Market Dynamism | PYMNTS.com
Price discrimination is facing growing consumer and regulatory backlash due to the emergence of “surveillance pricing,” which uses personal data to set
www.pymnts.com
March 19, 2026 at 6:53 PM
New from me on a very timely topic of price discrimination (algorithmic, personalized pricing) in a digital economy context. www.pymnts.com/cpi-posts/wh....
New from me on a new Canadian commentary channel, substack.com/@sagecanada: Don’t Be Stupid When Trading with Frenemies substack.com/@danciuriak/.... Canada has provided the world some life lessons in what not to do. Hope we have learned ourselves.
Don’t Be Stupid When Trading with Frenemies
Away from the performative noise, Canada-China trade policy is back where it started
substack.com
January 29, 2026 at 9:05 PM
New from me on a new Canadian commentary channel, substack.com/@sagecanada: Don’t Be Stupid When Trading with Frenemies substack.com/@danciuriak/.... Canada has provided the world some life lessons in what not to do. Hope we have learned ourselves.
This is a very timely summit. Disinformation impact is generated by market power in information space as I discuss in "The Age of Disinformation: The Role of Market Power in Information Space," papers.ssrn.com/abstract=394...
January 25, 2026 at 5:40 PM
This is a very timely summit. Disinformation impact is generated by market power in information space as I discuss in "The Age of Disinformation: The Role of Market Power in Information Space," papers.ssrn.com/abstract=394...
Almost 2 years ago, in an article for the substack.com/@nupeaceandw... (nupeaceandwarcenter.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-...), I wrote out the analysis that that made the case for what this NYT editorial proposes www.nytimes.com/interactive/.... But the analysis pointed in a very different direction. /x
Opinion | To Outbuild China, America Needs Friends
For the sake of global security and freedom, the world’s democracies must collaborate better.
www.nytimes.com
December 13, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Almost 2 years ago, in an article for the substack.com/@nupeaceandw... (nupeaceandwarcenter.substack.com/p/a-tale-of-...), I wrote out the analysis that that made the case for what this NYT editorial proposes www.nytimes.com/interactive/.... But the analysis pointed in a very different direction. /x
Too much vodka after being notified it was going to the front.
A humanoid robot powered by artificial intelligence, believed to be one of the first in Russia, face-planted during its highly anticipated debut in Moscow on Tuesday after briefly staggering onstage. nyti.ms/49Ly3GI
November 13, 2025 at 4:40 AM
Too much vodka after being notified it was going to the front.
As the Trump Administration continues it destructive assault on the foundations of US prosperity (in this case on the "brain gain" that fuels American innovation), it is fair to ask "Cui bono" - who benefits. My answer on the Trump I policies is aging nicely: papers.ssrn.com/abstract=446....
September 21, 2025 at 1:36 PM
As the Trump Administration continues it destructive assault on the foundations of US prosperity (in this case on the "brain gain" that fuels American innovation), it is fair to ask "Cui bono" - who benefits. My answer on the Trump I policies is aging nicely: papers.ssrn.com/abstract=446....
Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
"The world's richest man logs onto the platform he bought to yell at the AI he had built for fact-checking conservative mega-influencer Catturd2" is a sentence so stupid that future history books may just skip this decade.
he said that too lol
June 21, 2025 at 11:50 AM
"The world's richest man logs onto the platform he bought to yell at the AI he had built for fact-checking conservative mega-influencer Catturd2" is a sentence so stupid that future history books may just skip this decade.
Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
Super interesting paper by @monapaulsen.bsky.social and @ciuriakd.bsky.social advocating for the establishment of a Caucus of small, open economies as a new, informal group to facilitate a collective response within the @wto.org.
A must read: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
A must read: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
https://lsen.bsky.social
June 16, 2025 at 1:42 PM
Super interesting paper by @monapaulsen.bsky.social and @ciuriakd.bsky.social advocating for the establishment of a Caucus of small, open economies as a new, informal group to facilitate a collective response within the @wto.org.
A must read: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
A must read: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
I'm not a fan of the yah-boo British parliamentary culture at all, but I do feel that when someone lands an absolute zinger of a question like this and literally brings receipts, there should at least be a chant of "NICE ONE MAGGIE" from the public gallery or an airhorn or something.
HASSAN: Since you testified that Americans don't pay the president's tariffs, will the Treasury reimburse this New Hampshire small business for the tariffs they paid to the government?
BESSENT: I think we have to look in the aggregate
BESSENT: I think we have to look in the aggregate
June 14, 2025 at 11:48 AM
I'm not a fan of the yah-boo British parliamentary culture at all, but I do feel that when someone lands an absolute zinger of a question like this and literally brings receipts, there should at least be a chant of "NICE ONE MAGGIE" from the public gallery or an airhorn or something.
Reposted by Dan Ciuriak
Intriguing proposals for collective action at the WTO, drawing on GATT history to confront the current moment. From the always insightful @monapaulsen.bsky.social and @ciuriakd.bsky.social
Dan and I have substantially revised our paper after engaging with colleagues. It has been a particularly tough paper for me to think through and digest the why, how, and what of WTO collective action in response to the United States' trade actions. @ssrn.bsky.social papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
June 9, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Intriguing proposals for collective action at the WTO, drawing on GATT history to confront the current moment. From the always insightful @monapaulsen.bsky.social and @ciuriakd.bsky.social
Nope. See: "Populist Trade Economics and the Political Economy of Populism," papers.ssrn.com/abstract=504.... It's about income distribution and the changes wrought by technological change.
June 6, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Nope. See: "Populist Trade Economics and the Political Economy of Populism," papers.ssrn.com/abstract=504.... It's about income distribution and the changes wrought by technological change.
Cass is off-base in his critique of comparative advantage and Noah Smith is off-base in saying Cass makes a "useful substantive point" on this. See Misunderstanding America: A Journey Through Trade Economics with a Broken Compass papers.ssrn.com/abstract=509.... www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-anti-e...
The anti-economists have overreached
Before you criticize something, at least try to understand it.
www.noahpinion.blog
May 31, 2025 at 10:30 AM
Cass is off-base in his critique of comparative advantage and Noah Smith is off-base in saying Cass makes a "useful substantive point" on this. See Misunderstanding America: A Journey Through Trade Economics with a Broken Compass papers.ssrn.com/abstract=509.... www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-anti-e...
A "mis-step"? Is it any different if racism and institutional viciousness results in deportation of a man who worked namelessly on building a railroad or someone who would go on to build technology for your adversary, making him your adversary in the process? www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/o...
Opinion | The U.S. Deported This Chinese Scientist, in a Decision That Changed World History
www.nytimes.com
May 30, 2025 at 4:04 PM
A "mis-step"? Is it any different if racism and institutional viciousness results in deportation of a man who worked namelessly on building a railroad or someone who would go on to build technology for your adversary, making him your adversary in the process? www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/o...