David Johnson
@davidblakejohnson.bsky.social
Stay at home dad moonlighting as an associate professor of economics. Mostly interested in gun policy and fishing.
I aint saying this is the best thing that has happened this year but I am not saying it’s not.
September 10, 2026 at 9:24 PM
I aint saying this is the best thing that has happened this year but I am not saying it’s not.
Out of state crime gun sources by census division (2010 and 2023).
These are slick.
These are slick.
June 18, 2026 at 3:37 PM
Out of state crime gun sources by census division (2010 and 2023).
These are slick.
These are slick.
Wrestling is fun but some days you wake up looking like Me-me from Drew Carry.
June 17, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Wrestling is fun but some days you wake up looking like Me-me from Drew Carry.
Check out my bass
June 7, 2026 at 12:25 AM
Check out my bass
Fun plot of the the correlation between the share of gun dealers in a county area (relative to the national total) from 1993 to 2020.
May 13, 2026 at 8:36 PM
Fun plot of the the correlation between the share of gun dealers in a county area (relative to the national total) from 1993 to 2020.
This is why the first difference estimators in @troach.bsky.social and I's paper look more reasonable: these estimators handle regime change/structural breaks better.
The drawback is that, because we are using logs, the estimates are noisier due to smaller samples (e.g., 15k vs 60k).
The drawback is that, because we are using logs, the estimates are noisier due to smaller samples (e.g., 15k vs 60k).
May 13, 2026 at 6:11 PM
This is why the first difference estimators in @troach.bsky.social and I's paper look more reasonable: these estimators handle regime change/structural breaks better.
The drawback is that, because we are using logs, the estimates are noisier due to smaller samples (e.g., 15k vs 60k).
The drawback is that, because we are using logs, the estimates are noisier due to smaller samples (e.g., 15k vs 60k).
But when you use more recent data that is better "behaved," you get very reasonable results with the exact same specification.
May 13, 2026 at 6:09 PM
But when you use more recent data that is better "behaved," you get very reasonable results with the exact same specification.
Now I have been beating my head against the wall w/some non-linear models bc event study-like plots of lags and leads of (estimated gun sales) produce weird results using a reasonable specification and the full data set.
May 13, 2026 at 6:08 PM
Now I have been beating my head against the wall w/some non-linear models bc event study-like plots of lags and leads of (estimated gun sales) produce weird results using a reasonable specification and the full data set.
And gun dealers,
May 13, 2026 at 6:07 PM
And gun dealers,
So I get a little grief for saying gun markets are mostly stable (population-adjusted shares mostly constant over time), but this wasn't always the case.
You can see it in @chadtopaz.bsky.social and I's papers.
In NICS checks
You can see it in @chadtopaz.bsky.social and I's papers.
In NICS checks
May 13, 2026 at 6:07 PM
So I get a little grief for saying gun markets are mostly stable (population-adjusted shares mostly constant over time), but this wasn't always the case.
You can see it in @chadtopaz.bsky.social and I's papers.
In NICS checks
You can see it in @chadtopaz.bsky.social and I's papers.
In NICS checks
WEAI conference program is up. If you are in Denver, you might find this paper interesting.
April 19, 2026 at 5:03 PM
WEAI conference program is up. If you are in Denver, you might find this paper interesting.
If you are interested in guns, trade, or gravity models, check out this paper by Wisarut Suwanprasert and I.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
March 24, 2026 at 4:22 PM
If you are interested in guns, trade, or gravity models, check out this paper by Wisarut Suwanprasert and I.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Fun little heatplot of the correlation of changes in gun laws. Interesting how states can toggle on certain laws at the same time.
Although the big squares are the same law, but different levels of intensity.
Although the big squares are the same law, but different levels of intensity.
March 11, 2026 at 6:33 PM
Fun little heatplot of the correlation of changes in gun laws. Interesting how states can toggle on certain laws at the same time.
Although the big squares are the same law, but different levels of intensity.
Although the big squares are the same law, but different levels of intensity.
Not only are levels informative across states but the percent changes from t-1 to t are correlated. Here is the distribution of all the coef./correlations for NICS checks and Searches.
February 1, 2026 at 10:58 PM
Not only are levels informative across states but the percent changes from t-1 to t are correlated. Here is the distribution of all the coef./correlations for NICS checks and Searches.
FFL inspections (case closure, technically) by year. Interesting because homicides bottomed out in 2014 before increasing until 2018/2019. N~200k
December 18, 2025 at 12:07 AM
FFL inspections (case closure, technically) by year. Interesting because homicides bottomed out in 2014 before increasing until 2018/2019. N~200k
nothing to be ashamed of here.
Nathaniel Rateliff is awesome live. Everyone should see him and his band perform.
MO guy too.
Nathaniel Rateliff is awesome live. Everyone should see him and his band perform.
MO guy too.
December 3, 2025 at 4:59 PM
nothing to be ashamed of here.
Nathaniel Rateliff is awesome live. Everyone should see him and his band perform.
MO guy too.
Nathaniel Rateliff is awesome live. Everyone should see him and his band perform.
MO guy too.
Most popular words appearing in the names of gun stores (2003-2025).
November 8, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Most popular words appearing in the names of gun stores (2003-2025).
Our cat seems to bring in more friends than she takes out. Saved this fella and (accidentally) scared some kids.
October 27, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Our cat seems to bring in more friends than she takes out. Saved this fella and (accidentally) scared some kids.
No Kings Lees’s Summit. Complete lawlessnes.
October 18, 2025 at 3:53 PM
No Kings Lees’s Summit. Complete lawlessnes.
Applying some of what I learned from @chadtopaz.bsky.social .
Gun dealers isn't the only thing that is low dimensional. Concealed carry permits are well. Which is a little remarkable considering the heterogeneity in state laws and renewal cycles.
Gun dealers isn't the only thing that is low dimensional. Concealed carry permits are well. Which is a little remarkable considering the heterogeneity in state laws and renewal cycles.
October 15, 2025 at 7:20 PM
Applying some of what I learned from @chadtopaz.bsky.social .
Gun dealers isn't the only thing that is low dimensional. Concealed carry permits are well. Which is a little remarkable considering the heterogeneity in state laws and renewal cycles.
Gun dealers isn't the only thing that is low dimensional. Concealed carry permits are well. Which is a little remarkable considering the heterogeneity in state laws and renewal cycles.
You can do the same exercise with actual gun sales! year fixed effects are even more similar across the two outcome variables (gun sales and estimated gun sales).
October 7, 2025 at 12:44 AM
You can do the same exercise with actual gun sales! year fixed effects are even more similar across the two outcome variables (gun sales and estimated gun sales).