Horatiu Rus
@hrus.bsky.social
Econ & PoliSci Prof @uWaterloo: Env & Res, Trade. Kids taxi. Dog entertainer. Internalizer of externalities.
https://uwaterloo.ca/scholar/hrus
https://uwaterloo.ca/scholar/hrus
Adapt
Paris 💔
Imagine if hundreds of people died in an extreme hurricane or floods smashing through Europe
Heatwaves have already killed that many people. They are an extraordinary silent killer in that they dont generate outrage or fear.
Heatwaves have already killed that many people. They are an extraordinary silent killer in that they dont generate outrage or fear.
June 27, 2026 at 7:59 PM
Adapt
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
TLDR: this agreement does not maintain a path to net zero by 2050
Alright, lets do another live skeet react to the actual text in the Canada Alberta agreement:
www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news...
www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news...
Canada and Alberta strike agreement to diversify our exports, reduce emissions, and build a stronger economy
The world is changing rapidly. In response, Canada’s new government is focused on what we can control: building an affordable, competitive, and sustainable Canadian economy.
www.pm.gc.ca
May 15, 2026 at 7:52 PM
TLDR: this agreement does not maintain a path to net zero by 2050
The 5-year plan for the win?
It’s a solid piece. But to the extent that this is unprecedented? I’d challenge that historical assertion.
To the extent history is contingent on many elements that led to the complex situation we’re in today, it’s not a single player’s moves.
To the extent history is contingent on many elements that led to the complex situation we’re in today, it’s not a single player’s moves.
"Xi Jinping has elevated Chinese industrial policy into something the world has never seen. It targets almost every industry and region, demand as well as supply, services as well as goods, the sophisticated and the mundane. Its goals are economic, technological and strategic."
May 16, 2026 at 11:53 AM
The 5-year plan for the win?
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
I made an error on my previous EV chart! (Thanks @pjpartington.bsky.social for the catch). Sales shares are even higher than i showed.
Canadian EV sales shares return to 2024 levels:
Canadian EV sales shares return to 2024 levels:
May 14, 2026 at 3:02 PM
I made an error on my previous EV chart! (Thanks @pjpartington.bsky.social for the catch). Sales shares are even higher than i showed.
Canadian EV sales shares return to 2024 levels:
Canadian EV sales shares return to 2024 levels:
🇨🇦 energy strategy just dropped: double energy production and decarbonize economy.
Powering Canada Strong: A National Strategy for an Electrified Canadian Economy - Natural Resources Canada
Doubling our electricity systems to deliver clean, reliable power, support growth, and reduce emissions
natural-resources.canada.ca
May 14, 2026 at 3:08 PM
🇨🇦 energy strategy just dropped: double energy production and decarbonize economy.
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
New paper in Nature. The more a government controls its domestic media, the more it dominates AI training data, the more pro-regime outputs we get from AI. By scraping the open web, LLMs are unwittingly laundering state-coordinated narratives into seemingly objective answers.
May 13, 2026 at 3:17 PM
New paper in Nature. The more a government controls its domestic media, the more it dominates AI training data, the more pro-regime outputs we get from AI. By scraping the open web, LLMs are unwittingly laundering state-coordinated narratives into seemingly objective answers.
Another loophole for regressive income redistribution found!
US tariff refunds start rolling out as Oshkosh, Basic Fun report receiving payments reut.rs/4trbbT3
US tariff refunds start rolling out as Oshkosh, Basic Fun report receiving payments
Heavy-truck maker Oshkosh Corp and toy maker Basic Fun on Tuesday both said they had received partial payments of the refunds they had sought of the import tariffs they had paid under the Trump administration that were invalidated earlier this year by the U.S. Supreme Court.
reut.rs
May 12, 2026 at 9:36 PM
Another loophole for regressive income redistribution found!
pizza squirrel on campus at @uwaterloo.ca
May 6, 2026 at 4:22 PM
pizza squirrel on campus at @uwaterloo.ca
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
Also, prices never go down to where you remember them. That’s not the way it works
One thing we’ve learned from the past year is that voters want prices not just to go down, but to go back *to where they remember them.*
Every day that passes with the Strait closed pushes that farther into the future — and beyond when many voters will have made up their minds.
Every day that passes with the Strait closed pushes that farther into the future — and beyond when many voters will have made up their minds.
May 1, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Also, prices never go down to where you remember them. That’s not the way it works
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
10/ Bottom line:
Reproducibility in social science is higher than often claimed, but robustness remains a key challenge.
More open data, more robustness, and more scrutiny can only help.
Link to article: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Preprint: ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/i4rdps...
Reproducibility in social science is higher than often claimed, but robustness remains a key challenge.
More open data, more robustness, and more scrutiny can only help.
Link to article: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Preprint: ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/i4rdps...
April 1, 2026 at 3:16 PM
10/ Bottom line:
Reproducibility in social science is higher than often claimed, but robustness remains a key challenge.
More open data, more robustness, and more scrutiny can only help.
Link to article: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Preprint: ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/i4rdps...
Reproducibility in social science is higher than often claimed, but robustness remains a key challenge.
More open data, more robustness, and more scrutiny can only help.
Link to article: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Preprint: ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/i4rdps...
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
The report also said the EU’s mechanisms for addressing erosion or rule of law were largely ineffective, with most member states failing to turn guidance into tangible action despite several years of recommendations from the @ec.europa.eu. /7
March 30, 2026 at 8:24 AM
The report also said the EU’s mechanisms for addressing erosion or rule of law were largely ineffective, with most member states failing to turn guidance into tangible action despite several years of recommendations from the @ec.europa.eu. /7
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
places where the rule of law is declining in some areas, without erosion being part of an overall political strategy.
The Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain were all classified as “stagnators”, defined as countries where rule-of-law conditions
The Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain were all classified as “stagnators”, defined as countries where rule-of-law conditions
March 30, 2026 at 8:22 AM
places where the rule of law is declining in some areas, without erosion being part of an overall political strategy.
The Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain were all classified as “stagnators”, defined as countries where rule-of-law conditions
The Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Romania and Spain were all classified as “stagnators”, defined as countries where rule-of-law conditions
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
🚨🚨 Grim news: Governments in five EU MS are “consistently and intentionally” eroding the #ruleoflaw, Europe’s leading civil liberties group has warned, while democratic standards are deteriorating in six more, including historically strong democracies. 🧵
www.theguardian.com/law/2026/mar...
www.theguardian.com/law/2026/mar...
Five EU governments found to ‘consistently’ dismantle rule of law
Exclusive: Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Italy and Slovakia actively pursue regressive policies, watchdog finds
www.theguardian.com
March 30, 2026 at 8:17 AM
🚨🚨 Grim news: Governments in five EU MS are “consistently and intentionally” eroding the #ruleoflaw, Europe’s leading civil liberties group has warned, while democratic standards are deteriorating in six more, including historically strong democracies. 🧵
www.theguardian.com/law/2026/mar...
www.theguardian.com/law/2026/mar...
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
Nothing much new here as far as I can see, the EU and CPTPP countries already have lots of overlapping trade agreements and intend to keep them. Not much of a response to the biggest emerging danger which is the largest powers (including the EU) weaponising supplies.
Carney’s mega anti-Trump alliance starts quest to save world trade
The EU and the 12-nation CPTPP trade bloc are hatching a plan to keep the World Trade Organization on the rails.
www.politico.eu/article/mega...
The EU and the 12-nation CPTPP trade bloc are hatching a plan to keep the World Trade Organization on the rails.
www.politico.eu/article/mega...
Carney’s mega anti-Trump alliance starts quest to save world trade
Nearly 40 nations are hatching a plan to save the World Trade Organization or, if it can’t be salvaged, to build a new order.
www.politico.eu
March 26, 2026 at 8:18 AM
Nothing much new here as far as I can see, the EU and CPTPP countries already have lots of overlapping trade agreements and intend to keep them. Not much of a response to the biggest emerging danger which is the largest powers (including the EU) weaponising supplies.
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
None of this is going to be on the exam.
March 24, 2026 at 10:51 PM
None of this is going to be on the exam.
The release of the first iPhone is now closer to the dissolution of the Soviet Union than to today.
More reminders of mortality at profmusgrave.github.io/anotherday
More reminders of mortality at profmusgrave.github.io/anotherday
Another Day Closer to the End
profmusgrave.github.io
March 24, 2026 at 11:25 PM
The release of the first iPhone is now closer to the dissolution of the Soviet Union than to today.
More reminders of mortality at profmusgrave.github.io/anotherday
More reminders of mortality at profmusgrave.github.io/anotherday
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
homothetic preferences in the wild
The bottom 20% of households by income spent 4.7% of their total expenditures on eating out.
The top 20% spent 5.2%.
(BLS CEX www.bls.gov/cex/tables/c...)
The top 20% spent 5.2%.
(BLS CEX www.bls.gov/cex/tables/c...)
March 24, 2026 at 10:32 PM
homothetic preferences in the wild
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
My attempt at articulating why I think LLMs are a clear net positive for all research, and it's a mistake to ignore it despite private concerns:
paulgp.com/2026/03/16/r...
paulgp.com/2026/03/16/r...
Research in the Time of AI
paulgp.com
March 16, 2026 at 10:11 PM
My attempt at articulating why I think LLMs are a clear net positive for all research, and it's a mistake to ignore it despite private concerns:
paulgp.com/2026/03/16/r...
paulgp.com/2026/03/16/r...
Making the comprehensive agreement (CETA) even more comprehensive (comprehensiver?) #digitaltrade
"Negotiations to add digital trade provisions begin Thursday"
I'm curious to see what Canada and the EU come up with here.
I'm curious to see what Canada and the EU come up with here.
March 5, 2026 at 8:59 PM
Making the comprehensive agreement (CETA) even more comprehensive (comprehensiver?) #digitaltrade
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
"Negotiations to add digital trade provisions begin Thursday"
I'm curious to see what Canada and the EU come up with here.
I'm curious to see what Canada and the EU come up with here.
March 5, 2026 at 8:49 PM
"Negotiations to add digital trade provisions begin Thursday"
I'm curious to see what Canada and the EU come up with here.
I'm curious to see what Canada and the EU come up with here.
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
Excited to share my newly published article with Olivia Quinn in Climatic Change, which explains why the Inflation Reduction Act passed Congress when the Waxman-Markey bill failed.
It's open access so anyone can read it!
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
It's open access so anyone can read it!
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
The politics of American clean energy and climate policy: Why the Inflation Reduction Act passed - Climatic Change
Climatic Change - When President Biden won the 2020 election and Democrats gained control of Congress, a climate policy window opened. Many voters, activists, and lawmakers wondered: after...
link.springer.com
March 3, 2026 at 4:59 PM
Excited to share my newly published article with Olivia Quinn in Climatic Change, which explains why the Inflation Reduction Act passed Congress when the Waxman-Markey bill failed.
It's open access so anyone can read it!
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
It's open access so anyone can read it!
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
NBER: “.. Tariff increases are contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports decline with a lag, and output and manufacturing activity drop persistently.”
@scottlincicome.bsky.social
www.nber.org/papers/w34852
@scottlincicome.bsky.social
www.nber.org/papers/w34852
February 17, 2026 at 12:53 AM
NBER: “.. Tariff increases are contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports decline with a lag, and output and manufacturing activity drop persistently.”
@scottlincicome.bsky.social
www.nber.org/papers/w34852
@scottlincicome.bsky.social
www.nber.org/papers/w34852
Reposted by Horatiu Rus
(1/2) Such a pleasure discussing the importance of the EU CBAM for climate policy with Arvid Viaene. Listen to his podcast to hear more about our work on the Global Effects of CBAM, with @allanhsiao.bsky.social @cwolfram.bsky.social and
@jmcolmer.bsky.social.
www.buzzsprout.com/2412056/epis...
@jmcolmer.bsky.social.
www.buzzsprout.com/2412056/epis...
#18 Kimberly Clausing - The Global Effects of CBAM: Quantifying Benefits, Costs, and Leakage - Climate Economics with Arvid Viaene
Climate policy faces a built-in incentive problem: countries bear the costs of domestic regulation, while the benefits of lower CO₂ are shared globally. One proposed solution is a Carbon Border Adjust...
www.buzzsprout.com
February 12, 2026 at 4:30 PM
(1/2) Such a pleasure discussing the importance of the EU CBAM for climate policy with Arvid Viaene. Listen to his podcast to hear more about our work on the Global Effects of CBAM, with @allanhsiao.bsky.social @cwolfram.bsky.social and
@jmcolmer.bsky.social.
www.buzzsprout.com/2412056/epis...
@jmcolmer.bsky.social.
www.buzzsprout.com/2412056/epis...