Joshua Deutschmann
@joshdeutschmann.bsky.social
Economist UChicago @devinnovationlab.bsky.social. Opinions mine, etc.
| Virginia Tech fan
| Website: jwdeutschmann.com
| Virginia Tech fan
| Website: jwdeutschmann.com
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
🌍 Happening now at #NOVAFRICA2026 Conference in Economic Development
@joshdeutschmann.bsky.social from #UniversityofChicago
presenting "Contagion in Financial Networks: Evidence from Kenya".
#NOVAFRICA2026 #DevelopmentEconomics #NovaSBE
@joshdeutschmann.bsky.social from #UniversityofChicago
presenting "Contagion in Financial Networks: Evidence from Kenya".
#NOVAFRICA2026 #DevelopmentEconomics #NovaSBE
June 18, 2026 at 4:57 PM
🌍 Happening now at #NOVAFRICA2026 Conference in Economic Development
@joshdeutschmann.bsky.social from #UniversityofChicago
presenting "Contagion in Financial Networks: Evidence from Kenya".
#NOVAFRICA2026 #DevelopmentEconomics #NovaSBE
@joshdeutschmann.bsky.social from #UniversityofChicago
presenting "Contagion in Financial Networks: Evidence from Kenya".
#NOVAFRICA2026 #DevelopmentEconomics #NovaSBE
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
New working paper with Amol Singh Raswan
and Chris Udry: "The Sisyphean Pursuit of Evidence for Poverty Traps."
A central idea in development economics is that poverty can trap people. We went looking for the cleanest evidence. Here's what we found – and didn't.
and Chris Udry: "The Sisyphean Pursuit of Evidence for Poverty Traps."
A central idea in development economics is that poverty can trap people. We went looking for the cleanest evidence. Here's what we found – and didn't.
May 25, 2026 at 3:43 PM
New working paper with Amol Singh Raswan
and Chris Udry: "The Sisyphean Pursuit of Evidence for Poverty Traps."
A central idea in development economics is that poverty can trap people. We went looking for the cleanest evidence. Here's what we found – and didn't.
and Chris Udry: "The Sisyphean Pursuit of Evidence for Poverty Traps."
A central idea in development economics is that poverty can trap people. We went looking for the cleanest evidence. Here's what we found – and didn't.
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
Pull incentives can unlock innovation, but poorly sized incentives risk missing the mark.
A new Pull Incentive Sizing Tool from @uchi-msa.bsky.social offers a practical framework for getting the scale right:
https://go.cgdev.org/4bjRl6L
A new Pull Incentive Sizing Tool from @uchi-msa.bsky.social offers a practical framework for getting the scale right:
https://go.cgdev.org/4bjRl6L
How Big Should a Pull Incentive Be? A New Pull Incentive Sizing Tool to Foster Innovation
Pull mechanisms, like advance market commitments (AMCs) and prizes, that pay for results are having a moment. After the landmark pneumococcal AMC helped accelerate access to lifesaving vaccines, the m...
go.cgdev.org
February 20, 2026 at 6:07 PM
Pull incentives can unlock innovation, but poorly sized incentives risk missing the mark.
A new Pull Incentive Sizing Tool from @uchi-msa.bsky.social offers a practical framework for getting the scale right:
https://go.cgdev.org/4bjRl6L
A new Pull Incentive Sizing Tool from @uchi-msa.bsky.social offers a practical framework for getting the scale right:
https://go.cgdev.org/4bjRl6L
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
Very happy to share that my work with Tanguy Bernard and Ouambi Yameogo on contracting and quality upgrading is now forthcoming at JDE!
#EconSky #EconPapers
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#EconSky #EconPapers
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
February 16, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Very happy to share that my work with Tanguy Bernard and Ouambi Yameogo on contracting and quality upgrading is now forthcoming at JDE!
#EconSky #EconPapers
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#EconSky #EconPapers
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Very happy to share that my work with Tanguy Bernard and Ouambi Yameogo on contracting and quality upgrading is now forthcoming at JDE!
#EconSky #EconPapers
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#EconSky #EconPapers
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
February 16, 2026 at 4:05 PM
Very happy to share that my work with Tanguy Bernard and Ouambi Yameogo on contracting and quality upgrading is now forthcoming at JDE!
#EconSky #EconPapers
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#EconSky #EconPapers
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳
January 18, 2026 at 9:57 PM
🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳🇸🇳
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
The last in our JMP blog series has Guilio Schinaia with a 2-stage clustered RCT to see how market advisory information affects decisions of cashew farmers in Guinea-Bissau. Information increases farmer revenue, as they make more transactions & get better prices
blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...?
blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...?
Should I wait or should I sell? The impact of market information and commercialization advice on farmers’ sales decisions. Guest post by Guilio Schinaia
blogs.worldbank.org
December 19, 2025 at 4:19 PM
The last in our JMP blog series has Guilio Schinaia with a 2-stage clustered RCT to see how market advisory information affects decisions of cashew farmers in Guinea-Bissau. Information increases farmer revenue, as they make more transactions & get better prices
blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...?
blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...?
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
Evaluating a soft-skills course implemented in Ugandan and Kenyan primary schools that replaced academic review time with lessons on goal-setting and related skills as students prepared for primary school-leaving exams, from Dam, Gray-Lobe, Kremer, de Laat, and Morsink www.nber.org/papers/w34562
December 18, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Evaluating a soft-skills course implemented in Ugandan and Kenyan primary schools that replaced academic review time with lessons on goal-setting and related skills as students prepared for primary school-leaving exams, from Dam, Gray-Lobe, Kremer, de Laat, and Morsink www.nber.org/papers/w34562
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
In today's JMP, Molly Doruska looks at how to protect firms in Dakar from flooding. Individual subsidies had negative spillovers on other firms as water diverted, but combining subsidies with community meeting reduced flood losses without negative spillovers blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...?
Do uncoordinated flood loss mitigation investments produce spillovers? Guest post by Molly Doruska
blogs.worldbank.org
December 4, 2025 at 10:45 PM
In today's JMP, Molly Doruska looks at how to protect firms in Dakar from flooding. Individual subsidies had negative spillovers on other firms as water diverted, but combining subsidies with community meeting reduced flood losses without negative spillovers blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...?
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
In today's job market post, @matteo-ruzzante.bsky.social uses DiD to show how price controls on GM cotton in India spurred adoption by farmers, but reduced subsequent location-specific seed development. Despite innovation reduction, farmers were still better off. blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...
Priced for Development? How Price Controls Spread Technology but Stall Innovation: Guest post by Matteo Ruzzante
blogs.worldbank.org
November 11, 2025 at 2:46 PM
In today's job market post, @matteo-ruzzante.bsky.social uses DiD to show how price controls on GM cotton in India spurred adoption by farmers, but reduced subsequent location-specific seed development. Despite innovation reduction, farmers were still better off. blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
What is happening at Goddard is absolutely devastating. We are losing history. We are losing an incredible amount of human talent, skill, and knowledge. Rebuilding it will be impossible same for same. Industry can not absorb the people or the equipment. This is undoing space science in the US.
Goddard spacecraft engineer: "I think it just kind of speaks to the atmosphere of the agency and the nation, where people are like, 'Well, laws don't matter for the people at the top anymore.'"
NASA is sinking its flagship science center during the government shutdown — and may be breaking the law in the process, critics say
"There is just a general acknowledgement that a lot of what is happening is illegal…"
www.space.com
November 6, 2025 at 3:43 PM
What is happening at Goddard is absolutely devastating. We are losing history. We are losing an incredible amount of human talent, skill, and knowledge. Rebuilding it will be impossible same for same. Industry can not absorb the people or the equipment. This is undoing space science in the US.
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
Hiring Alert ⏰
We are looking for postdocs in development econ!
This is an exciting opportunity to collaborate closely with Nobel Laureate and DIL Faculty Director Michael Kremer. The position is expected be one year in duration.
Apply by 12/1: www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
We are looking for postdocs in development econ!
This is an exciting opportunity to collaborate closely with Nobel Laureate and DIL Faculty Director Michael Kremer. The position is expected be one year in duration.
Apply by 12/1: www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
American Economic Association: JOE Listings - August 1, 2025 - January 31, 2026
www.aeaweb.org
October 30, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Hiring Alert ⏰
We are looking for postdocs in development econ!
This is an exciting opportunity to collaborate closely with Nobel Laureate and DIL Faculty Director Michael Kremer. The position is expected be one year in duration.
Apply by 12/1: www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
We are looking for postdocs in development econ!
This is an exciting opportunity to collaborate closely with Nobel Laureate and DIL Faculty Director Michael Kremer. The position is expected be one year in duration.
Apply by 12/1: www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
One area where AI has a lot of potential is in weather forecasting and climate modelling.
Fairly accurate weather forecasting, in particular, is something that many of us now take for granted.
From my latest Substack: www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/artificial...
Fairly accurate weather forecasting, in particular, is something that many of us now take for granted.
From my latest Substack: www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/artificial...
Artificial intelligence could dramatically improve weather forecasting
An AI-based model outperformed every other in forecasting the Indian monsoon this year. This helped millions of farmers.
www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com
October 28, 2025 at 10:34 AM
One area where AI has a lot of potential is in weather forecasting and climate modelling.
Fairly accurate weather forecasting, in particular, is something that many of us now take for granted.
From my latest Substack: www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/artificial...
Fairly accurate weather forecasting, in particular, is something that many of us now take for granted.
From my latest Substack: www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/artificial...
We are recruiting postdocs at DIL this year. Please apply!
www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
#EconJobMarket #EconSky
www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
#EconJobMarket #EconSky
American Economic Association: JOE Listings - August 1, 2025 - January 31, 2026
www.aeaweb.org
October 25, 2025 at 7:43 PM
We are recruiting postdocs at DIL this year. Please apply!
www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
#EconJobMarket #EconSky
www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
#EconJobMarket #EconSky
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
Illinois Gov. Pritzker ahead of Trump National Guard deployment:
"To Chicagoans... Look out for your communities and your neighbours. Know your rights. Film things that you see happening... Authoritarians thrive on your silence. Be loud for America."
"To Chicagoans... Look out for your communities and your neighbours. Know your rights. Film things that you see happening... Authoritarians thrive on your silence. Be loud for America."
September 2, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Illinois Gov. Pritzker ahead of Trump National Guard deployment:
"To Chicagoans... Look out for your communities and your neighbours. Know your rights. Film things that you see happening... Authoritarians thrive on your silence. Be loud for America."
"To Chicagoans... Look out for your communities and your neighbours. Know your rights. Film things that you see happening... Authoritarians thrive on your silence. Be loud for America."
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
Just received this statement from Lisa Cook:
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
President Trump said he is firing Lisa Cook, a Federal Reserve governor, "effective immediately." It's his most direct assault yet on Fed independence -- and a step that it is far from clear he can legally take.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/u... #EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/u... #EconSky
Trump Says He Is Removing Lisa Cook From Federal Reserve Board
www.nytimes.com
August 26, 2025 at 3:02 AM
Just received this statement from Lisa Cook:
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
The full 12 minutes of @govpritzker.illinois.gov speech today, which was superb.
(Via Nicole Wallace / @msnbc.com segment.)
www.msnbc.com/deadline-whi...
(Via Nicole Wallace / @msnbc.com segment.)
www.msnbc.com/deadline-whi...
'We are watching and taking names': Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker responds to Trump's threats to Chicago
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker holds press conference in response to recent threats made by President Donald Trump to send the national guard to Chicago, in a similar manner that he has done so in Los ...
www.msnbc.com
August 25, 2025 at 10:08 PM
The full 12 minutes of @govpritzker.illinois.gov speech today, which was superb.
(Via Nicole Wallace / @msnbc.com segment.)
www.msnbc.com/deadline-whi...
(Via Nicole Wallace / @msnbc.com segment.)
www.msnbc.com/deadline-whi...
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
There are a lot of USAID post-mortems out there. I read 18 of them and wrote about what they get wrong.
In short, the problem is that the development sector’s reckoning with the destruction of USAID has been largely unmoored from what actually happened
timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/everyone-i...
In short, the problem is that the development sector’s reckoning with the destruction of USAID has been largely unmoored from what actually happened
timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/everyone-i...
Everyone is misunderstanding what happened to USAID
I read 18 pieces reckoning with the end of USAID. Here's what they get wrong.
timhirschelburns.substack.com
August 21, 2025 at 10:10 PM
There are a lot of USAID post-mortems out there. I read 18 of them and wrote about what they get wrong.
In short, the problem is that the development sector’s reckoning with the destruction of USAID has been largely unmoored from what actually happened
timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/everyone-i...
In short, the problem is that the development sector’s reckoning with the destruction of USAID has been largely unmoored from what actually happened
timhirschelburns.substack.com/p/everyone-i...
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
What Danielle said.
According to the Yale Budget Lab, the average effective tariff rate in this economy right now is 18.2%
Let me put that another way.
President Trump has raised taxes on American businesses and consumers by -- on average -- 18.2%
According to the Yale Budget Lab, the average effective tariff rate in this economy right now is 18.2%
Let me put that another way.
President Trump has raised taxes on American businesses and consumers by -- on average -- 18.2%
A thing I really need people to keep in mind: 15% tariffs are high, historically speaking. 10% tariffs are high.
The average effective tariff rate before this term was just over 2%. Anything double-digits is high!
The average effective tariff rate before this term was just over 2%. Anything double-digits is high!
August 21, 2025 at 6:15 PM
What Danielle said.
According to the Yale Budget Lab, the average effective tariff rate in this economy right now is 18.2%
Let me put that another way.
President Trump has raised taxes on American businesses and consumers by -- on average -- 18.2%
According to the Yale Budget Lab, the average effective tariff rate in this economy right now is 18.2%
Let me put that another way.
President Trump has raised taxes on American businesses and consumers by -- on average -- 18.2%
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
On the left: Nate Cavanagh, a 28-year-old DOGE staffer and college dropout.
On the right: Mohammad Halimi, a 53-year-old exiled Afghan scholar.
This is the story of how DOGE targeted Halimi on social media.
Then the Taliban took his family. 🧵
On the right: Mohammad Halimi, a 53-year-old exiled Afghan scholar.
This is the story of how DOGE targeted Halimi on social media.
Then the Taliban took his family. 🧵
August 22, 2025 at 11:41 AM
On the left: Nate Cavanagh, a 28-year-old DOGE staffer and college dropout.
On the right: Mohammad Halimi, a 53-year-old exiled Afghan scholar.
This is the story of how DOGE targeted Halimi on social media.
Then the Taliban took his family. 🧵
On the right: Mohammad Halimi, a 53-year-old exiled Afghan scholar.
This is the story of how DOGE targeted Halimi on social media.
Then the Taliban took his family. 🧵
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
NEW—Earlier this evening agents from ICE/other fed agencies were outside Rhode Island Ave metro in DC asking people exiting the station for their IDs, per someone who experienced it. When the person presented their Real ID license, an agent said that wasn't sufficient. Luckily they had secondary ID.
August 21, 2025 at 2:00 AM
NEW—Earlier this evening agents from ICE/other fed agencies were outside Rhode Island Ave metro in DC asking people exiting the station for their IDs, per someone who experienced it. When the person presented their Real ID license, an agent said that wasn't sufficient. Luckily they had secondary ID.
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
USAID funded roughly half the world’s supply of ready-to-use therapeutic food. The dismantling of the agency has disrupted the global supply chain that provides the packets, leaving thousands of malnourished children at risk of dying.
A $45 Treatment Can Save a Starving Child. US Aid Cuts Have Frozen the Supply
www.nytimes.com
August 17, 2025 at 9:53 PM
USAID funded roughly half the world’s supply of ready-to-use therapeutic food. The dismantling of the agency has disrupted the global supply chain that provides the packets, leaving thousands of malnourished children at risk of dying.
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
New working paper from me & some colleagues on East Africa's maize markets from c. 1900 to today, based on a major data collection effort to fill in the long-run history of food prices in one of the world's poorest regions: www.aehnetwork.org/working-pape...
The Political Economy of Maize in East Africa, 1900-2020: How cheap food turned expensive – African Economic History Network
www.aehnetwork.org
August 1, 2025 at 10:29 AM
New working paper from me & some colleagues on East Africa's maize markets from c. 1900 to today, based on a major data collection effort to fill in the long-run history of food prices in one of the world's poorest regions: www.aehnetwork.org/working-pape...
Reposted by Joshua Deutschmann
Kim’s mother:
“I immigrated here to the States - I thought I understood it was a country of equal rights where the Constitution applies equally.”
“I immigrated here to the States - I thought I understood it was a country of equal rights where the Constitution applies equally.”
July 29, 2025 at 11:12 AM
Kim’s mother:
“I immigrated here to the States - I thought I understood it was a country of equal rights where the Constitution applies equally.”
“I immigrated here to the States - I thought I understood it was a country of equal rights where the Constitution applies equally.”