Been getting a lot of mailers for Sabio-Howell in the late stretch but so far she's being smoked by Jamie Pedersen. We'll see how much better the later returns are for Sabio-Howell (Seattle always sees a large left-shift in late returns) but she'll need to start far better than this in the general

King finally in and lol the fucking terrible lefty challengers to Smith are highly unlikely to advance. He'll probably be going up against a republican and he'll win again just as easily as he would against either Chaudhry or Sawant.

So it's early vote but dems currently add up to >50% of the primary vote out of Cowlitz county (trump won this county by 20 points in 2024)

I imagine it'll get redder but cool to see

It's just a smattering of returns from Cowlitz and Wahkiakum rn but I'm already not confident in Hennrich's chances...

@secstatewa.bsky.social @stevehobbs.bsky.social please fix this? This is not a great experience at all lmfao

Oh no did she find out I donated to Hennrich

what the fuck is this lmfao

I mean she's running a campaign which is good, I just find this funny, it's literally just a linktree with ai in its name lol

Today's louisiana house election is rather interesting. It's in the conservative areas/suburbs of Baton Rouge, an incredibly racially (and politically) polarized city. And it's actually zoomed left since 2016; Harris improved on Biden in its lines! And dems consistently improved in Senate races too.

LRT: For a blood-red district, it does seem like margins are quite swingy - dems have gotten anywhere between 30 and >41% in generals. Given that, the demographics, and special election environments, yeah I could see the right candidate making it close. A W would be an earthquake still

Talking about cumulative house swing

It probably doesn't help that a bunch of internals got released late for narrative-building, but even the chronological list looks like a mess. _Maybe_ the late oscillations are between the Allred allegations and then the Colbert thing? But all I see is a total mess tbh

interesting notice I only now saw. republican numbers may be undercounted somewhat. Still hoping dems "win" the primary turnout but I guess if they only got 40% of the turnout in 2018 then there's no reason not to celebrate anything >=40% when all's said and done!

6-1-1 took me like 5 minutes lol and is far cleaner than what their map proposes. I'm not saying it'd make the difference but I do feel like it'd have some marginal affects that COULD matter for a state like CO

well it was fun while it lasted

UHHHHHHM...

god I forgot how terribly stupid the KY-SEN polls were in 2020. McGrath got 38% of the vote! FL-SEN is gonna be insufferable