@wapoliticalyapper.bsky.social
Leftist from WA. Queer AF. Every couple years I find myself unable to resist yapping about elections and politics. Looks like 2026 is not the year for that to change.
Reposted
NATE SILVER: “holy shit guys what the fuck is happening???”
September 22, 2026 at 6:13 PM
NATE SILVER: “holy shit guys what the fuck is happening???”
Reposted
YouGov, in my opinion is one of the top pollsters in the game right now. They were clearly the most accurate pollsters of 2025, and when they show a D+14 Generic Ballot (LV), that to me is a bigger warning sign than even that Iowa Marist poll.
LINK: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
LINK: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
September 22, 2026 at 5:51 PM
YouGov, in my opinion is one of the top pollsters in the game right now. They were clearly the most accurate pollsters of 2025, and when they show a D+14 Generic Ballot (LV), that to me is a bigger warning sign than even that Iowa Marist poll.
LINK: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
LINK: d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
Reposted
gotta say maintaining skepticism Dems would take the senate into the summer and the ballot would widen has made watching it happen way more fun.
September 22, 2026 at 5:38 PM
gotta say maintaining skepticism Dems would take the senate into the summer and the ballot would widen has made watching it happen way more fun.
Reposted
cards on the table y'all, we're doing WAY better in this midterm than i would've guessed like a year ago
September 22, 2026 at 5:33 PM
cards on the table y'all, we're doing WAY better in this midterm than i would've guessed like a year ago
Reposted
This seems like a pretty big deal: donors made illegal contributions to Susan Collins and then were awarded lucrative contracts after her office intervened with the Navy. An FBI investigation was dropped under Trump.
www.propublica.org/article/fbi-...
www.propublica.org/article/fbi-...
September 22, 2026 at 10:23 AM
This seems like a pretty big deal: donors made illegal contributions to Susan Collins and then were awarded lucrative contracts after her office intervened with the Navy. An FBI investigation was dropped under Trump.
www.propublica.org/article/fbi-...
www.propublica.org/article/fbi-...
I had a feeling sabato was gonna shift IA-SEN after last night haha
September 22, 2026 at 5:19 PM
I had a feeling sabato was gonna shift IA-SEN after last night haha
Reposted
If you are one of the 750,000 people ejected off the ACA exchanges, I'd love to speak. emgarcia.85 on Signal.
September 22, 2026 at 5:12 PM
If you are one of the 750,000 people ejected off the ACA exchanges, I'd love to speak. emgarcia.85 on Signal.
Reposted
strap in, folks
September 22, 2026 at 5:12 PM
strap in, folks
Her ASR margins had been consistently narrowing, down to D+2 followed by D+1. So this is fantastic
Alaska - Senate Polling:
🔵 Peltola: 52%
🔴 Sullivan: 48%
Alaska Survey Research / Sept 12, 2026
(Current model result in AK-SEN is DEM 49% - GOP 47%)
open.substack.com/pub/usapolli...
🔵 Peltola: 52%
🔴 Sullivan: 48%
Alaska Survey Research / Sept 12, 2026
(Current model result in AK-SEN is DEM 49% - GOP 47%)
open.substack.com/pub/usapolli...
The Democratic Wave Is Growing
Post-Labor Day polling continues to point toward a difficult midterm environment for Republicans
open.substack.com
September 22, 2026 at 3:54 PM
Her ASR margins had been consistently narrowing, down to D+2 followed by D+1. So this is fantastic
Reposted
Alaska - Senate Polling:
🔵 Peltola: 52%
🔴 Sullivan: 48%
Alaska Survey Research / Sept 12, 2026
(Current model result in AK-SEN is DEM 49% - GOP 47%)
open.substack.com/pub/usapolli...
🔵 Peltola: 52%
🔴 Sullivan: 48%
Alaska Survey Research / Sept 12, 2026
(Current model result in AK-SEN is DEM 49% - GOP 47%)
open.substack.com/pub/usapolli...
The Democratic Wave Is Growing
Post-Labor Day polling continues to point toward a difficult midterm environment for Republicans
open.substack.com
September 22, 2026 at 3:38 PM
Alaska - Senate Polling:
🔵 Peltola: 52%
🔴 Sullivan: 48%
Alaska Survey Research / Sept 12, 2026
(Current model result in AK-SEN is DEM 49% - GOP 47%)
open.substack.com/pub/usapolli...
🔵 Peltola: 52%
🔴 Sullivan: 48%
Alaska Survey Research / Sept 12, 2026
(Current model result in AK-SEN is DEM 49% - GOP 47%)
open.substack.com/pub/usapolli...
Reposted
Whispers of private polls by Jonathan Martin in Politico: "Internal Republican polls show former Gov. Roy Cooper leading that race by double digits, a margin that can perhaps be halved but not erased." www.politico.com/news/magazin...
September 22, 2026 at 3:45 PM
Whispers of private polls by Jonathan Martin in Politico: "Internal Republican polls show former Gov. Roy Cooper leading that race by double digits, a margin that can perhaps be halved but not erased." www.politico.com/news/magazin...
Reposted
Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson reacts to this bombshell Susan Collins scandal:
“We deserve answers about every contract and every conversation that Collins and her team facilitated on the backs of taxpayers. The jig is up.”
“We deserve answers about every contract and every conversation that Collins and her team facilitated on the backs of taxpayers. The jig is up.”
September 22, 2026 at 3:10 PM
Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson reacts to this bombshell Susan Collins scandal:
“We deserve answers about every contract and every conversation that Collins and her team facilitated on the backs of taxpayers. The jig is up.”
“We deserve answers about every contract and every conversation that Collins and her team facilitated on the backs of taxpayers. The jig is up.”
Reposted
Now the Lucas county Democrats have joined the call for Rep Kaptur to take down her transphobic ads.
September 22, 2026 at 2:40 PM
Now the Lucas county Democrats have joined the call for Rep Kaptur to take down her transphobic ads.
Reposted
negotiations going great I see
Trump: “…do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again?
“Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness for generations?
“Do I drive them into hell with no chance of survival and no hope of future greatness for generations?
September 22, 2026 at 2:49 PM
negotiations going great I see
Reposted
This is… insane
“Would you rather vote for a Democratic Socialist or MAGA Republican?”
🌹Democratic socialist 54%
🟥MAGA Republican 36%
“Would you rather vote for a Democratic Socialist or MAGA Republican?”
🌹Democratic socialist 54%
🟥MAGA Republican 36%
September 22, 2026 at 2:40 PM
This is… insane
“Would you rather vote for a Democratic Socialist or MAGA Republican?”
🌹Democratic socialist 54%
🟥MAGA Republican 36%
“Would you rather vote for a Democratic Socialist or MAGA Republican?”
🌹Democratic socialist 54%
🟥MAGA Republican 36%
Reposted
Reposted
The latest Economist/YouGov poll has Trump's approval -28 and Democrats leading the generic ballot by 14 points among likely voters. If replicated in November it would be the biggest popular vote victory for either party since 1976
September 22, 2026 at 1:49 PM
The latest Economist/YouGov poll has Trump's approval -28 and Democrats leading the generic ballot by 14 points among likely voters. If replicated in November it would be the biggest popular vote victory for either party since 1976
Reposted
🚨New Economist/YouGov poll (9/18-9/21)
2026 generic ballot
LV:
🟦 DEM 52% (+1)
🟥 GOP 38% (-1)
RV:
🟦 DEM 45% (+1)
🟥 GOP 36% (-3)
Trump approval
LV:
❌ Disapprove 63% (+4)
✅ Approve 35% (-5)
RV:
❌ Disapprove 62% (+4)
✅ Approve 35% (-5)
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
2026 generic ballot
LV:
🟦 DEM 52% (+1)
🟥 GOP 38% (-1)
RV:
🟦 DEM 45% (+1)
🟥 GOP 36% (-3)
Trump approval
LV:
❌ Disapprove 63% (+4)
✅ Approve 35% (-5)
RV:
❌ Disapprove 62% (+4)
✅ Approve 35% (-5)
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
September 22, 2026 at 1:45 PM
🚨New Economist/YouGov poll (9/18-9/21)
2026 generic ballot
LV:
🟦 DEM 52% (+1)
🟥 GOP 38% (-1)
RV:
🟦 DEM 45% (+1)
🟥 GOP 36% (-3)
Trump approval
LV:
❌ Disapprove 63% (+4)
✅ Approve 35% (-5)
RV:
❌ Disapprove 62% (+4)
✅ Approve 35% (-5)
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
2026 generic ballot
LV:
🟦 DEM 52% (+1)
🟥 GOP 38% (-1)
RV:
🟦 DEM 45% (+1)
🟥 GOP 36% (-3)
Trump approval
LV:
❌ Disapprove 63% (+4)
✅ Approve 35% (-5)
RV:
❌ Disapprove 62% (+4)
✅ Approve 35% (-5)
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
Reposted
Michigan Statewide Poll (Suffolk)
Senate
🔵Abdul El-Sayed 47%
🔴Mike Rogers 40%
Governor
🔵Jocelyn Benson 51%
🔴John James 34%
9/16-9/20
Link: www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...
Senate
🔵Abdul El-Sayed 47%
🔴Mike Rogers 40%
Governor
🔵Jocelyn Benson 51%
🔴John James 34%
9/16-9/20
Link: www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...
September 22, 2026 at 12:40 PM
Michigan Statewide Poll (Suffolk)
Senate
🔵Abdul El-Sayed 47%
🔴Mike Rogers 40%
Governor
🔵Jocelyn Benson 51%
🔴John James 34%
9/16-9/20
Link: www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...
Senate
🔵Abdul El-Sayed 47%
🔴Mike Rogers 40%
Governor
🔵Jocelyn Benson 51%
🔴John James 34%
9/16-9/20
Link: www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...
Reposted
Texas Statewide Poll (Texas Southern University)
Senate
🔵James Talarico 47%
🔴Ken Paxton 46%
Governor
🔴Greg Abbott 49%
🔵Gina Hinojosa 45%
9/15-9/19
Link: static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7...
Senate
🔵James Talarico 47%
🔴Ken Paxton 46%
Governor
🔴Greg Abbott 49%
🔵Gina Hinojosa 45%
9/15-9/19
Link: static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7...
September 22, 2026 at 12:41 PM
Texas Statewide Poll (Texas Southern University)
Senate
🔵James Talarico 47%
🔴Ken Paxton 46%
Governor
🔴Greg Abbott 49%
🔵Gina Hinojosa 45%
9/15-9/19
Link: static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7...
Senate
🔵James Talarico 47%
🔴Ken Paxton 46%
Governor
🔴Greg Abbott 49%
🔵Gina Hinojosa 45%
9/15-9/19
Link: static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7...
Reposted
Sen. Susan Collins helped steer millions in federal defense contracts to Navatek, whose CEO illegally funneled thousands of dollars to her campaign.
The FBI sought to launch a probe and was eyeing Collins and other lawmakers.
Then Trump gutted the unit in charge. THREAD 🧵
The FBI sought to launch a probe and was eyeing Collins and other lawmakers.
Then Trump gutted the unit in charge. THREAD 🧵
September 22, 2026 at 10:45 AM
Sen. Susan Collins helped steer millions in federal defense contracts to Navatek, whose CEO illegally funneled thousands of dollars to her campaign.
The FBI sought to launch a probe and was eyeing Collins and other lawmakers.
Then Trump gutted the unit in charge. THREAD 🧵
The FBI sought to launch a probe and was eyeing Collins and other lawmakers.
Then Trump gutted the unit in charge. THREAD 🧵
Reposted
terrible news for ray coper
Just in: Marist poll finds Josh Turek (D) leading by 8% against Ashley Hinson (R) in the Senate race.
Turek is up 50% to 42% among registered voters.
In the gov race: Rob Sand (D) leads 54/42. maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-m...
Turek is up 50% to 42% among registered voters.
In the gov race: Rob Sand (D) leads 54/42. maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-m...
September 22, 2026 at 4:27 AM
terrible news for ray coper
Reposted
Looking at the poll, while I think it is a good poll for Dems for sure, I can see some signs that the electorate they used is more Dem friendly than what will actually happen. IE, 39% of the sample being college educated (31% is the state average)
Throw it into the average!
Throw it into the average!
September 22, 2026 at 4:22 AM
Looking at the poll, while I think it is a good poll for Dems for sure, I can see some signs that the electorate they used is more Dem friendly than what will actually happen. IE, 39% of the sample being college educated (31% is the state average)
Throw it into the average!
Throw it into the average!
Reposted
WHAT THE FUCK IS HAPPENING?
Just in: Marist poll finds Josh Turek (D) leading by 8% against Ashley Hinson (R) in the Senate race.
Turek is up 50% to 42% among registered voters.
In the gov race: Rob Sand (D) leads 54/42. maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-m...
Turek is up 50% to 42% among registered voters.
In the gov race: Rob Sand (D) leads 54/42. maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-m...
September 22, 2026 at 4:06 AM
WHAT THE FUCK IS HAPPENING?
Reposted
Iowa - Donald Trump Approval Polling:
⚫️Disapprove: 58%
🟢Approve: 41%
Marist / Sept 20, 2026
⚫️Disapprove: 58%
🟢Approve: 41%
Marist / Sept 20, 2026
September 22, 2026 at 4:06 AM
Iowa - Donald Trump Approval Polling:
⚫️Disapprove: 58%
🟢Approve: 41%
Marist / Sept 20, 2026
⚫️Disapprove: 58%
🟢Approve: 41%
Marist / Sept 20, 2026