Topic
Business EU US

Trade fragmentation threatens global growth

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The World Trade Organization warned in its annual report that rising trade barriers, export controls and economic "decoupling" could cut global GDP by roughly 7–10% and hit poorest countries hardest.

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How did COVID-19 affect the global economy? The answer is in this publication: doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2...
September 15, 2026 at 8:00 PM
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Hmm. Were the higher import tariffs somehow magically designed to increase imports? 🤔
September 15, 2026 at 3:36 PM

Reposted by Holger Nehring

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Saudi Arabia could face the biggest threat to its existence ever. With oil exports shuttered and no money coming in, it will be forced to sell treasuries for liquidity which the US will oppose because it will cause yields to spike. Thus, they could be pushed into a balance of payments crisis.
September 15, 2026 at 3:30 PM
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"The Role of Trade Agreements in Countering Trade Sanctions: Evidence from Sectoral Data" is available as a working paper at papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers...
September 15, 2026 at 3:00 PM

Reposted by Holger Nehring

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What this post really crystallised for me is the extent to which the different global conflicts are merging around key chokepoints around the Med, Red Sea, Caspian Sea and Indian Ocean.

Global trade has shown remarkable resillience but it gets to the point where there are too many chokepoints.
September 15, 2026 at 2:34 PM
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As global trade adjusts to a shifting economic and geopolitical landscape, what will a new equilibrium look like?

Join @piie.com at #WTOPublicForum to explore what comes next for the global trading system.

In person (Room CR) or live: https://bit.ly/4j5B4Gp
September 15, 2026 at 2:30 PM
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Just a normal day, watching our tech overlords continuing to maximise their profits and blackmail states as always by threatening us with extinction.
Behind the AI ‘Extinction’ Power Bid: Soaring Costs Could Hit 10% of World GDP

AI firms are invoking unproven extinction warnings to justify restrictions on developments by their smaller rivals whilst seeking greater influence over regulation...
Behind the AI ‘Extinction’ Power Bid: Soaring Costs Could Hit 10% of World GDP
AI firms are invoking unproven extinction warnings to justify restrictions on developments by their smaller rivals whilst seeking greater influence over regulation
bylinetimes.com
September 15, 2026 at 1:58 PM
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I will take your advice and not read it, but my one-sentence alternative version of this report would say something like: "Some governments are being very difficult and that makes governance of world trade a challenge."
September 15, 2026 at 12:20 PM
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JUST PUBLISHED: Geopolitical Tensions and Trade: Mitigating through Partner Diversification has been published at the Journal of Economics and Business doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus....

Working paper version is available at dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.526...
September 15, 2026 at 12:00 PM
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What's next for global services trade?

Hear from business leaders at the #WTOPublicForum as they explore emerging trends, tech change, regulatory challenges and the WTO's role in shaping the next decade of services trade.

🕙 13h30 CET | Room CR or live: bit.ly/4gSzYfV
September 15, 2026 at 11:19 AM
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This paper investigates the role of free trade agreements in moderating international stock return spillovers. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers...
September 15, 2026 at 11:00 AM
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NOW ONLINE: The 2026 World Trade Report examines what global trade rules have delivered in the past, where is it presently under strain, and what is at stake for the future.

⬇️5 takeaways below
📘And full report here: https://bit.ly/4xlsB5v

#WTOPublicForum
September 15, 2026 at 10:15 AM
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⏰ Happening soon at #WTOPublicForum!

Join us for the launch of the World Trade Report 2026, exploring the WTO’s role in a changing global economy and how rules-based cooperation can adapt to new realities.

🔗 https://bit.ly/4xVoaiS
September 15, 2026 at 9:00 AM
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The global economy is changing fast. How should international cooperation adapt?

Hear different perspectives on the WTO's role and the future of trade at the #WTOPublicForum opening, with the International Chamber of Commerce and @iisd.org.

🕙 10h CET | Room CR or live: bit.ly/4rfp0ET
September 15, 2026 at 7:00 AM
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Deep structural inertia dictates global trade invoicing, limiting the ability of national policies to alter established currency patterns. rdcu.be/e5x8j
September 15, 2026 at 5:30 AM
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Gains from tariff reductions are about 1.8% for the median country. dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.499...
September 15, 2026 at 4:30 AM
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