Senate races may decide control
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As U.S. midterms approach Nov. 3, polls point to Democratic gains, President Donald Trump campaigns for Republicans in Texas, and close Senate races could determine control.
This Monday, I will participate (online) in a forum on the U.S. Midterm elections with @erinjenne.bsky.social & @rheinisch.bsky.social — organized by @kreiskyforum.bsky.social
“Realignment in America. How the Midterm Elections 2026 Are Shaping the Future”
“Realignment in America. How the Midterm Elections 2026 Are Shaping the Future”
Realignment in America. How the Midterm Elections 2026 are Shaping the Future - Kreisky Forum
The midterm elections will be a crucial test of the political and social divisions that have increasingly shaped the United States. One third of the Senate and all members of the House of Representati...
www.kreisky-forum.org
October 3, 2026 at 6:18 PM
This Monday, I will participate (online) in a forum on the U.S. Midterm elections with @erinjenne.bsky.social & @rheinisch.bsky.social — organized by @kreiskyforum.bsky.social
“Realignment in America. How the Midterm Elections 2026 Are Shaping the Future”
“Realignment in America. How the Midterm Elections 2026 Are Shaping the Future”
by Kate Starbird Reposted by David Dunning, Lisa W. Fazio, Sarah Roberts
It's Oct 3. The midterms are a month away, but early voting has already begun in some states. Mail-in ballots will start circulating soon. Some of the usual suspects are already pushing the same "rigged election" rumors we've all heard before. This year, you can play along at home. bingo.cip.uw.edu
"Rigged Election" Bingo
Spot the tropes before they spread. Recognize the common story elements behind election rumors — can you get BINGO?
bingo.cip.uw.edu
October 3, 2026 at 3:15 PM
It's Oct 3. The midterms are a month away, but early voting has already begun in some states. Mail-in ballots will start circulating soon. Some of the usual suspects are already pushing the same "rigged election" rumors we've all heard before. This year, you can play along at home. bingo.cip.uw.edu
As a fun exercise I thought it would be useful to game out the worst-case midterm scenarios for Democrats. Consider this a form of exposure therapy to reduce one’s worst fears. For today, it’s about whether the polling is systematically overrating the Dems. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/exposure-t...
Exposure Therapy for Democrats, Part One
Democrats are rolling towards the midterms right now. Is it a mirage? Could it change? Assessing the worst-case scenarios for November.
danieldrezner.substack.com
October 3, 2026 at 11:36 AM
As a fun exercise I thought it would be useful to game out the worst-case midterm scenarios for Democrats. Consider this a form of exposure therapy to reduce one’s worst fears. For today, it’s about whether the polling is systematically overrating the Dems. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/exposure-t...
Reposted by David Darmofal
Republican candidates are beginning to quietly scrub mentions of Trump from their websites due to his plummeting approval rate.
Don’t let their distance fool you. A vote for a Republican in the midterms is a vote for Trump.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Don’t let their distance fool you. A vote for a Republican in the midterms is a vote for Trump.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/30/some-candidates-are-scrubbing-their-websites-here-is-why-that-matters/
www.washingtonpost.com
October 3, 2026 at 7:34 PM
Republican candidates are beginning to quietly scrub mentions of Trump from their websites due to his plummeting approval rate.
Don’t let their distance fool you. A vote for a Republican in the midterms is a vote for Trump.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Don’t let their distance fool you. A vote for a Republican in the midterms is a vote for Trump.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
by Matt Grossmann Reposted by David Darmofal
Democrats are overperforming in 5 states Trump won by double digits, with Senate candidates rated better & less extreme than the broader Democratic Party & than the Republican candidates
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
Democrats May Have Found the Recipe for Flipping Red-State Senate Seats
Five new Times/Siena polls continue a run of strong results for the party in states that President Trump won easily in 2024.
www.nytimes.com
October 3, 2026 at 12:20 PM
Democrats are overperforming in 5 states Trump won by double digits, with Senate candidates rated better & less extreme than the broader Democratic Party & than the Republican candidates
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
This *was* true pre-2016 but it hasn’t been true for a while. For example, well-educated voters are far more likely to vote in non-presidential years and that bloc has swung decidedly Democratic over the past decade.
Republicans tend to have strong voting blocks from groups that vote in high percentages (ie white Evangelicals), whereas democratic voters seem to be younger and more easily discouraged.
October 3, 2026 at 3:01 PM
This *was* true pre-2016 but it hasn’t been true for a while. For example, well-educated voters are far more likely to vote in non-presidential years and that bloc has swung decidedly Democratic over the past decade.
Democrats May Have Found the Recipe for Flipping Red-State Senate Seats www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
Democrats May Have Found the Recipe for Flipping Red-State Senate Seats
Five new Times/Siena polls continue a run of strong results for the party in states that President Trump won easily in 2024.
www.nytimes.com
October 3, 2026 at 1:20 PM
Democrats May Have Found the Recipe for Flipping Red-State Senate Seats www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
Reposted by Ilya Somin
Democrats now have multiple paths to retake the majority in the US Senate despite a challenging map that had favored Republicans going into the midterms, according to NYT/Siena University polls. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
October 3, 2026 at 2:42 PM
Democrats now have multiple paths to retake the majority in the US Senate despite a challenging map that had favored Republicans going into the midterms, according to NYT/Siena University polls. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Not really. High diesel and fertilizer prices have really hurt in the Midwest and Plains states, which have been GP strongholds. Indeed, one of the of the polling oddities about thsee midterms is Democrats underperforming in places where the fundamentals should favor them, like Maine & Minnesota.
The polls are lopsided nationally, but that just changes the map of where the state/local races are close.
October 3, 2026 at 12:14 PM
Not really. High diesel and fertilizer prices have really hurt in the Midwest and Plains states, which have been GP strongholds. Indeed, one of the of the polling oddities about thsee midterms is Democrats underperforming in places where the fundamentals should favor them, like Maine & Minnesota.
The Voters Who Could Decide the Midterms
Hispanic voters are souring on Republicans. Here’s why.
Hispanic voters are souring on Republicans. Here’s why.
Hispanic Voters, Souring on Republicans, Could Decide the Midterms (Gift Article)
Hispanic voters are souring on Republicans. Here’s why.
www.nytimes.com
October 2, 2026 at 11:15 PM
The Voters Who Could Decide the Midterms
Hispanic voters are souring on Republicans. Here’s why.
Hispanic voters are souring on Republicans. Here’s why.
Democrats May Have Found the Recipe for Flipping Red-State Senate Seats
Democrats May Have Found the Recipe for Flipping Red-State Senate Seats (Gift Article)
New Times/Siena polls continue a run of strong results for the party in states that President Trump won easily in 2024.
www.nytimes.com
October 3, 2026 at 11:44 AM
Democrats May Have Found the Recipe for Flipping Red-State Senate Seats
Trump Puts on a Midterms Show for an Audience That’s Already Sold www.nytimes.com/2026/10/01/u...
Trump Puts on a Midterms Show for an Audience That’s Already Sold
President Trump spent the day preaching to his most fervent fans, not the voters he will need to help elect or re-elect a slate of Republicans fighting in states from Alaska to Maine.
www.nytimes.com
October 3, 2026 at 10:38 AM
Trump Puts on a Midterms Show for an Audience That’s Already Sold www.nytimes.com/2026/10/01/u...
Hispanic Voters on the Texas Border Have Soured on Trump - The New York Times www.nytimes.com/2026/09/30/u...
Hispanic Voters on the Texas Border Have Soured on Trump
In 2024, these voters were an essential part of the winning Republican coalition. Now, many feel abandoned and furious, complicating the party’s chances in November.
www.nytimes.com
October 3, 2026 at 10:35 AM
Hispanic Voters on the Texas Border Have Soured on Trump - The New York Times www.nytimes.com/2026/09/30/u...
Senate Races in Republican States Tilt Toward Democrats, Polls Find
Senate Races in Republican States Tilt Toward Democrats, Polls Find (Gift Article)
Democrats are performing strongly in five reliably Republican states where they are trying to flip Senate seats to win control of the chamber, new New York Times/Siena polls found.
www.nytimes.com
October 3, 2026 at 11:44 AM
Senate Races in Republican States Tilt Toward Democrats, Polls Find
Trump Puts on a Midterms Show for an Audience That’s Already Sold - The New York Times www.nytimes.com/2026/10/01/u...
Trump Puts on a Midterms Show for an Audience That’s Already Sold
President Trump spent the day preaching to his most fervent fans, not the voters he will need to help elect or re-elect a slate of Republicans fighting in states from Alaska to Maine.
www.nytimes.com
October 3, 2026 at 10:35 AM
Trump Puts on a Midterms Show for an Audience That’s Already Sold - The New York Times www.nytimes.com/2026/10/01/u...
Democrats May Have Found the Recipe for Flipping Red-State Senate Seats www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
Democrats May Have Found the Recipe for Flipping Red-State Senate Seats
New Times/Siena polls continue a run of strong results for the party in states that President Trump won easily in 2024.
www.nytimes.com
October 3, 2026 at 10:05 AM
Democrats May Have Found the Recipe for Flipping Red-State Senate Seats www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
Senate Races in Republican States Tilt Toward Democrats, Polls Find www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
Senate Races in Republican States Tilt Toward Democrats, Polls Find
Democrats are performing strongly in five reliably Republican states where they are trying to flip Senate seats to win control of the chamber, new New York Times/Siena polls found.
www.nytimes.com
October 3, 2026 at 10:06 AM
Senate Races in Republican States Tilt Toward Democrats, Polls Find www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...